halla !
(((((((((((((((((( done outte us thoughts/drafts last night, and earlierre on todayye))))))))))))))))))))))))))))
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((today, Tuesdayye, ~20:47hrs))
anyhoo, me spotteddde a race at @Chelly whatte looks intarestingge from a puntingge povve
Thursday, 3rd Oct
Chelmsford - Standard to slow
*** unusual enough to see 'slow' in ye @/Goingge on this particular AW track, but no ne'ermindde; mekks no diff to us humbill, and mickeyye mouse opinion, nohowwe....
6,30
a 7f Cl5 Maiden for horses aged 3-y-o and upwarddes....
paper has Roger Teal's Dancing Magic <one of just two 4yo runners in the field> as even money fav; and is followed by one notte too farre behindde him in bettingge in shape of the
'looks more likely' Stanage from Johnny G stable - who is paperly priced as a 7/4 poke..........
..... none of the two look a decentte price.... Stanage floppedde lto at Newcastle -over a mile on the AW- on Standard/Slow going- when beatenne into sixth as the well-supported 7/4 favourite, but was still only beaten by about 4 lengths... previous to that run, the Kingman geldingge ran two very good races -both in Cl 2s- when finishingge 2nd at Windsor, andde thirdde at Doncaster, over 8 and 7 furlongges.... is very short price tho, and wouldde be justte about a fair price were this race ran on turf....
..... still hope he canne finishhe in front of fav
Onto ye favooreette: Dancing Magic has ran 16 times and come placedde in five of those... Is now rated 89, but was once ratedde in ye 100's , and ran both as a two and a three-y-o, when rated 100/+100...
.... his lto run was his first on
any AW surface. thatte race was at the course and over a furlongge further..... has a good drawwe in boxxe three this likely leader..... Dancing Magic led most of the way thatte day, but was nabbedde inside the last furlongge by the very probitively priced odds-on jolly, Skipper... Race was ran in a fast time, and Dancing Magic was a comfortable 1length second.... suggestion is this one couldde be hardde to be pegged back
if horse gettes ye @uncontestedde leadde..... might not be as simple as thatte tho; perhappes summat'll keep tabbes on him, and maybe that'll be the secondde fav Stanage...
.... Stanage possibly more likely to go off and sit mid-div, mebbe, on anudda day, as tho he can go close to pace over a mile -not too sure aboutte a race a furlongge
less in distance.... anyhoo, is lightly racedde, drawn close to the jolly in box five... on accountte of thisse, andde there beingge notte much else of any addition quality-wise in this hyahhe race, methinks Rab won't be far off the leader -
if race pannes out thatte way....
... think mebbe i'll putte up a few advance
in-runningge lays on race favourite... will likely put up
lays on @Dancing Magic @1/5 , 1/10 & 1/20, for change, and hope dey gettes matchedde
andde me collectes.. notte hopin' 4 a lotte!
seems most intarestingge angle to me anyhowwe.....
one me's thinkingge of backingge here is Dave Evans' newcomer,
DOCTOR AWTAAD ~33/1... Dave don't seem to run many in Maidens/Novice type races - lette alone win one, but am thinkingge this one does have some sorta claimes: 1. trainer don't have many runners in these sorta races, so perhaps he likes this newcomer... 2. Doctor Awtaad is sired by Awtaad, and his are capable of at leastte goingge close on theyye firstte time outte runnes
likely simla story with all prominent sires' progenies but am looking for ye 'green shootes'' here and no ye 'brown' ones
Also, mebbe
ye Awtaad's might prefer a mile -or races on turf, but i've nae clue
... slightly on ye @flip-side to thatte lastte bitte o' negativity; ye 3-y-o filly Doctor Awtaad was a nr (injured in box) whenne declaredde to runne over 6fs at Chepstow <in race where one of ye outsiders here, Artemesia ~100/1, come 6th in, on her debut> on Sept 3rd pastte,,,, thinkingge is, if Dave thought 6fs was okay and not too sharppe a trip for the horse, then am hopingge and guessinkke thatte 7fs -altho on an artifisshalle surface- shouldde be no problem for his filly...
so, in conclusion; if all things be's equal me'll go €2 EW DOCTOR AWTAAD....
#SD + revisitte tomorrow
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((01:17am, Wed, 2nd October))
hadde quickke look at two otherre AW racesse, and wentte with
##firstte one i lookedde at in each... both worth €3 EW methinkkes....
Thursday, 3rd October
Newcastle - Standard
6,40
ROUGH DIAMOND ~14/1
has five wins from thirty runs in Irelandde.... done v little since startingge racingge across pondde in August... has hadde six runnes for current handler, Tristan Davidson, in justte underre 2 months,,, Best of those was two runs back when coming secondde over c/d on slow goingge... also has a thirdde for that trainer from run previous to thatte when running over 7furlongs at Carlisle on soft..
.... Newcastle run was only one of those six UK runnes whatte was ranne on ye AW....
.... horse has won twice on AW at Dundalk, from off higher ratingges on both occasions; with one race over 6 and t'otherre 7, furlongges.. have feelingge horse is better on ye AW thanne the turffe, might be unexposed over in @blighty.... Rough Diamond has wonne twice in month of October, and is a winnerre from as recently as July of this year... enough green shootes... would have at nines meselffe... hopefully ye books agree with ye paperre
backke to chelly.....
Chelmsford - Standard to slow
8,30
IMPEACH ~12/1.... looks fair price. tickkes enough boxes at a cursory glance.... couldde be a seven to one shotte, i spose, w/o beingge too too optimistickke/bullshítishhe aboutte his winningge chances
wouldde want bigger'n tens to be backingge e/w tho.... Only the one (Cl5 ova CD in Nov last year- on ye usuelle @goingge) winne fromme sevenne in totalle course runs, but aint no nevamindde as only two of those were ran over six furlongges- with the restte varying between 5fs and a mile...
.... has bang-in-form jock Kaiya Fraser, up, and his 3lbs claimme helppes an' alle...
enough to like.. also in thatte 8,30,
CROCODILE POWER ~5/1, is only other one i looked at <outte of bothhe ye racesse> and has to have solidde claimes.... deffe looks a friendly price far as winningge claims goes... likely be secondde pick here.... 2 or 3 yoyos WIN methinkkes.... will include as
##2nd pick hyahhe
...........lastestte beast me lookedde at is ~7/2 fav Sir Rodneyredblood.... for a frontrunnerre, box twelve of twelve runners looks, on face of it leastteways, to be a shoíte drawwe.... doubt he'll gette to lead here... haven't looked much at restte o' ye fieldde for to see possible pace angles, butte ye Jenkins/Ghiani animal looks eminently swervable here...
mightte give both these racesse a look later on today for to see whatte ye opposition is like... if don't, then am happy enough with claims of Rough Diamond and Impeach:- at leastte at their prospective pricesse...
#later
SD
((Tis later nowwe
07:15, Wed,2nd Oct
Me's hadde good look at field's for ye 6,40 & 8,30 and have seen nowtte to change us mind on ye pickes v a v how ye racesse might pan outte:- Impeach likely be heldde up from wide draw in chelly race and needn't be concernedde about getn a good early possy...... Other race, ye 6.40 Newcastle, is on straight tracke and box eight oughtte be fine for usse picke there, Rough Diamond, who'll likely chase whate'er's leadin' ....
2nd pick in 8,30 Chelmsford race -Crocodile Power- would be expectedde to at leastte get a close to mid-div, and rails, sit from out stall five... yeppe, happy enuffe with Thursday selectionnes,,,, gl me
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((03:28))
one more race 'nd me'll call it a day
Thursday, 3rd October
Salisbury - Heavy-soft in places
4,50
a race where not all the field have ran over ~14fs on the flat, and outte the ones what have done, hardly any have racedde over this sorta trippe on soft/very soft going...
..... managedde to narrow it dahn to two pickes here
not too badde ! better'n three or mowahhe
anyhoo, it seems that it generally appears to be bestte to be close to pace in this race, the M J Church Handicap: a Cl4 over 1m. 6f. 44yds. for horses 3-y-o andde olderre... feckedde up thatte ye commentaterre has to mention the name of the race in his <well it''s usually a dude
> commentary... as if he aint gotte enuffe to be goingge on with
yep, racecaller deffo falls into ye #ProperJobbe category, alongside, butte no' exclusively, likes of:- lorry driver , plasterer , mother , ect... no easy
les pickes:
SMALL FRY ~9/4 WIN.... in form, only 3-y-o... canne go well on soft/heavy - came placedde on last runne in Irelandde on that groundde... won lto over 14f at Chester, albeitte on Good to Soft.... different story possibly on much softer going, and would have to say thatte the Harzand geldingge is no absentte ye ? markes
anyhoo, that Cork runne weren't so bad, trainer G Moore seems to have ekedde outte some sort of improvementte fromme @Small Fry, and therefore tickes enuffe boxes,,,, short enough already,,, no bette if less'n 85/40..
FRANKELIAN ~ 7/1 WIN.... 1st time blinkeredde daughter of Frankel will be having her ninth career run, and just her secondde at thisse trippe followingge her lto 6th of eleven at Haydock... overall, she's very hitte and misse, and oftenne goes off at fair short prices,,, perhappes penny will droppe some daye
she ran at Nottingham last year over a mile on heavy.... dunno whatte to make of thatte as she only managedde to finish last of six thatte day, but it's her only go to date running on very soft groundde... Her lto run saw her try lead when sportingge ye f/t cheekpieces, but she was beat a furlongge outte thenne
not much to go on at alle... mainest green shoote far as her chances goes is a thirdde placedde position in June of this year at the course,,, that was over 10f on Good to Firm, but she ran close to pace thatte day and was stayingge on atte ye endde - shouldde bode well if she can run a similar race here... not sure whatte price me thinkke this one shouldde be , either for win or e/w
WIN only on thisse one.. ~€2 at 6/1 or less, ~€4 if 15/2 or biggerre; smth like datte
likes of Road To Wembley ~7/1 , St Pancras ~7/1 & Crown Of India ~8/1 , can't be really ruledde outte neitherre; butte canne alle have lines drew thru 'em, imo, on a/c of either lack of soft groundde form, or lack of form over this sorta long-distance trippe... be a more confusing race if it were a cupla F's shorter, but it aint
go with an 'outside' picke here as well...
JACK THE SAVAGE ~25/1.... big price and prolly little value at thatte.... only four flatte runs to his name (no wins) - withhe all four of them on the AW.... also has 14 races ran under NH rulesse... has a win from a hurdles' race last Oct on close to 'Softte' goingge at Huntingdon..... worth a yoyo win in hope methinkkes
S/D
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((06:03am, Wed, 2nd Oct))
Salisbury 3,50
wide openne race... cases can be made for five or six here... two stand out however, and are obvious enough fancies as are towarddes top o' ye betting....
SOLAR ACLAIM ~6/1 EW.... a winner lto over 6f on heavy going at Goodwood.... 3yo came 1st and second in first two races- both over course and distance, when with previous trainer,,,, those were 2yo races so notte much to gette excitedde about there, but is recent winner & goes well at the course, and on @Heavy going,,, good enuffe
BISHOP'S CROWN ~6/1 EW..... a year older than other pick and has simla profile..... is lto winner from over CD... that was on close to good ground tho- different conditions here.... has never won on @Heavy going but won at Doncaster last August on soft, and has a secondde place finish to his name from a 6f race at Goodwood in May on ye #Heavy goingge.....
...... when racingge, at least on soft/heavy going, both les pickes usually race fromme close to pace, which is usually a positive at this track -esp on soft groundde
last year's winner and third: Under The Twilight ~16/1 & Amazonian Dream ~12/1, also take part... didn't seem an especially good renewal thatte, andde winner came from off the pace.... race was ran on soft thenne.... notte at alle certain heavy goingge will suit either of these...
very wide openne race,,,, a very consistentte bunchhe overalle... outta all the field's last six individual runnes, they have amassedde -between wins and runner-uppe spottes- over 30 top-two-placedde finishes between 'em... nts forre a 6f Cl4 sprint
think 6/1 for both picks is fair for each way purposes,,,, and bothhe mebbe could be 9/2 apiece, for ye winne... €3 EW on dem both if 6 to one or bigger; go win only on both pickes if shorter thanne 6s
weather forecastte has it as rainingge todayye at Salisbury, and tomorrow looks to be sunnier but with some rain..... anyhoo, for sake o' us pickes, me's guessing ground'll likely be no better'n soft; hope that's ye case.. #CudntBeUpToEm
thatte deffo alle til later !
#SD
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back to nowwe
~15:30hrs, Wed 2nd October
picks above'll do me....
Les selectionnes:
Chelmsford
6.30 DOCTOR AWTAAD €2 EW ~33/1
8,30 IMPEACH €3 EW ~12/1 , CROCODILE POWER €3 WIN ~5/1
Newcastle
6,40 ROUGH DIAMOND €3 EW ~14/1
Salisbury
3,50 SOLAR ACLAIM €3 EW ~6/1 , BISHOP'S CROWN 6/1 ~6/1
4,50 SMALL FRY €3 WIN ~9/4 , FRANKELIAN €3 WIN ~7/1 , JACK THE SAVAGE €1 WIN ~25/1
#SD .. post laterer: abahtte 17:00hrs , or before majority of bookes have racesses pricedde up - cannae be wrongk about em thenne
thinkke 365 have it pricedde uppe,,,, majorestte discrepancy is theyye have Evans' horse at 16s- ye rest are similar prices to what ye Probable SP give.....
fekkit, me'll post now !
do me,
thatte alle,
GL
