Horse Racing

[Enoch Von Clausewitz]

Lewesian Lass first one beat

at least fav comes nowhere - might've been last even

[Enoch Von Clausewitz]

looking forwards:

Monday 27th Feb '23

chance ye trusty AW

Wolverhampton - Standard

try get one pick in each race (and not much more )

5.30 DREAM HARDER ~ 4/1 EW . CD winner from December gone, but that was Class5; ran okay lto over same CD in Class3. Class4 on Monday, and Ian Williams' 4yo 4th place lto in a Class 3 CD affair reads well enough here. Paper certainly aint underestimating him putting him in at an early priced 4 to 1 shot; wouldn't want to be backing him at much shorter than those odds tbf. looks versatile as to how he can be ridden, but will hope he stays close to pace from the box one draw


6.00 two picks here alas. very little overall form to go on, and hard to be confident of even a place, but will hope at least one of the two are capable of giving a good account:

THINK CHAMPAGNE ~ 10/1 EW , MARGARET BEAUFORT ~ 12/1 EW


6.30 go with the provisional ~ 6/4 fav SARACEN HEAD WIN here


7.00 2 picks here

PADDY'S DAY ~ 3/1 WIN , WRECK IT RYLEY ~ 7/2 WIN


7.30 PROCLIVITY ~ 9/2 EW. lto CD run was an improvement. Should be a lot of pace on for the selection to chase

8.00 GLOBAL STYLE ~ 5/2 WIN , NACHOS CHEESE ~ 12/1 EW

8.30 JOHNNY BOOM ~ 5/2 WIN , WURLITZER ~ 7/1 EW

if am not too lazy, will perhaps tip on down to shop to do a Placepot. Will use all the picks for the first six races, and include RABAAH in the 6,30 as well. will also include GLORIOUS CHARMER in 7.30

Placepot:

5,30 3

6,00 2 , 11

6,30 1 , 3

7,00 1 , 5

7,30 5, 7

8,00 2, 8

gl

Placepot:

5,30 3 , 2

6,00 2 , 11

6,30 1 , 3

7,00 1 , 5

7,30 5, 7

8,00 2, 8

think i'll include horse no 2 (Precision Storm) in the 5,30 as well for me placepot

also in 5.30:

May Night ~ 11/2 4th fav might do me as a place-lay , if he sees a lot of money twixt now 'nd racetimee. has only had the one go at north of 9furlongs, and that was in his lto go which was over Course & Distance - altho that was a Class3 (Class4 tomorrow) . was beaten into 6th by just under 2lgths from hold-up ride, and likely will have to be held up tomorrow from 8 box.

might well be staying on into just outside places, but i'll no be surprised if he don't finish in first four home. still, wouldn't be interested at current prices; perhaps if he's gambled into 10/3 - 7/2 or therebout

"Paper" has him as a CD winner, but he aint. he's won over the extended mile alright (once - earlier this month), but not the extended 9fs trip. #hashtagdon'tbefooled

Super Den ~ 4/1 2nd/joint 2nd fav atm, is another one what's vulnerable for the places. has won his last two races - both over a mile and both on Polytrack surfaces - from close to pace; whereas he only managed a third place the time before that over the extended mile at Wolves. that run saw him running on late into third of 10. regardless, being by Dutch Art, i aint so sure that he can stay the extended 9fs here. another 3/4 place-lay possibility this one, imo

in this race there are four (no's 1 , 2 , 3 & 7) horses that have gone won or gone very close over CD, so not a complete forlorn hope that both those place-lay possibilities mentioned above, each finish outside top four

horse no. 5 Society red - who's not getting younger at 9yo, and out of form lately [but excuses can be made for some of his recent runnings] - is also a course and distance winner; so loads and loads of beasts what can potentially fill first 3/4/5 places home, and can stop May Night and Super Den from finishing in top four

too early now to have concrete opinions on me possible place-lays; have to see what market's doing ~ 1 - 2 hrs before the race, as well as waiting for ye Opening Show. Super Den's ~ 4/1 price is fine, if it stays like that or shortens; and be no surprise at all if there be a possible "false" gamble on May Night, given his trainer Stuart Williams is a renowned "shrewdie" , and books could well shorten this one just to try and fool the punting populous





g'l

[Enoch Von Clausewitz]

Ayr - Good to soft-soft in places

3.50

could have picked 7 or 8 here, but pen landed on three

GLENTRUAN ~ 7/1 EW. formerly trained by Patrick Neville (and now back with Patrick Neville after a stint with Mrs Duffield( , the 8yo gelding, who's been lightly raced in last couple of seasons, is now in new ownership also, and will be having his third run since return to Neville yard

first run back were no great shakes at all, but his most recent one reads very well here, imo, as it saw him come 2nd in a similar race at Catterick; and that was on Good/gd to firm going, and being as this horse's 2 wins have come on yielding and soft going, that's gotta be worth a couple of ticks in the 'for' box. horse is a course and distance winner off same rating and on similar going, from back in Dec '21, which was in a grade higher race, so there's another tick there

MOONLIGHT SPIRIT ~ 12/1 EW. latest two form figures (F & P) read pretty uninspiringly, but there's a reason or two why this one aint a 50 to 1 shot Fell, which can happen, last time out in a race at Catterick on heavy going; and, in the race before that one, Jimmy Moffatt's gelding was pulled up, but that race was after a significant absence/ a higher grade race / and a trip just shy of 2miles was probably far too sharp for him

has a good piece of winning form, albeit way back in Dec '21 and over approx 3.5fs shorter than today's one is. is very lightly raced as a hurdler tho, and once (June 2020) went up (did come last of eight that day - but still, was deemed good enough to take part, so that counts for summat ) against the mighty Stradivarius in ye Ascotte Gold Cuppe - when with former connections

FENNA'S LOSS ~ 8/1 EW. came 2nd at Catterick in November over similar trip on soft ground. flopped at Wetherby on next outing, but redeemed himself somewhat when returning to the scene of that Catterick 2nd and finished not too far back on top of the ground. mebbe the horse has a liking for Catterick, but either way, i'd be annoyed if he won and ah did nae back him

#
Foster'sisland , Big Bresil , Cave Court , Socks Off and Coral Blue are others what can be given live/reasonable chances here

# so plenty with chances - live and other - , which is why i wanna take on jolly here. So Many Roads, the ~ 10/3 fav, was a short enough price when winning lto over course and distance. But that was on soft/heavy going, and in a grade lower. on 'negative' (from lay perspective) side, that were only the horse's 4th ever go over the sticks, and breeding suggests that the better ground should be suitable.

apart from the horse's last [and winning] run, it's impossible really to make a case for him one way or t'other; but he has never raced on ground better than soft, and looks a really small price here. he 'opened up' around 6s the day he won, and was sent off at 9/2, whereas in his four previous runs (including one Bumper one) 20 to 1 was the shortest he was sent off at, so obviously 'improved massive' for 'first run in a handicap' , and a fair deal must've been expected that day. could easily be "well in on the handicap" , but, atc, i'd rather be a 3/4 place layer here based on his overall profile

am basing my picks , selections etc on the ground being the same as the going description mentioned above, but the ground could well change on account of time of year - tis in Scotland tho, so we'll hardly be seeing it go better than 'Good' anyhow. if it did get slightly better, then i don't think it would inconvenience any o' me picks; and it might (just guessing here, as per ) just hinder the [current] jolly's chances on t'other hand, if it got (the ground/going) worser, it could only help ye jolly's chances, imo

weather forecast has it as cloudy with little precipitation expected, so that'll do me

g'l

[Enoch Von Clausewitz]

Ayr - Good to soft-soft in places

3.50

could have picked 7 or 8 here, but pen landed on three

GLENTRUAN ~ 7/1 EW. formerly trained by Patrick Neville (and now back with Patrick Neville after a stint with Mrs Duffield( , the 8yo gelding, who's been lightly raced in last couple of seasons, is now in new ownership also, and will be having his third run since return to Neville yard

first run back were no great shakes at all, but his most recent one reads very well here, imo, as it saw him come 2nd in a similar race at Catterick; and that was on Good/gd to firm going, and being as this horse's 2 wins have come on yielding and soft going, that's gotta be worth a couple of ticks in the 'for' box. horse is a course and distance winner off same rating and on similar going, from back in Dec '21, which was in a grade higher race, so there's another tick there

MOONLIGHT SPIRIT ~ 12/1 EW. latest two form figures (F & P) read pretty uninspiringly, but there's a reason or two why this one aint a 50 to 1 shot Fell, which can happen, last time out in a race at Catterick on heavy going; and, in the race before that one, Jimmy Moffatt's gelding was pulled up, but that race was after a significant absence/ a higher grade race / and a trip just shy of 2miles was probably far too sharp for him

has a good piece of winning form, albeit way back in Dec '21 and over approx 3.5fs shorter than today's one is. is very lightly raced as a hurdler tho, and once (June 2020) went up (did come last of eight that day - but still, was deemed good enough to take part, so that counts for summat ) against the mighty Stradivarius in ye Ascotte Gold Cuppe - when with former connections

FENNA'S LOSS ~ 8/1 EW. came 2nd at Catterick in November over similar trip on soft ground. flopped at Wetherby on next outing, but redeemed himself somewhat when returning to the scene of that Catterick 2nd and finished not too far back on top of the ground. mebbe the horse has a liking for Catterick, but either way, i'd be annoyed if he won and ah did nae back him

#
Foster'sisland , Big Bresil , Cave Court , Socks Off and Coral Blue are others what can be given live/reasonable chances here

# so plenty with chances - live and other - , which is why i wanna take on jolly here. So Many Roads, the ~ 10/3 fav, was a short enough price when winning lto over course and distance. But that was on soft/heavy going, and in a grade lower. on 'negative' (from lay perspective) side, that were only the horse's 4th ever go over the sticks, and breeding suggests that the better ground should be suitable.

apart from the horse's last [and winning] run, it's impossible really to make a case for him one way or t'other; but he has never raced on ground better than soft, and looks a really small price here. he 'opened up' around 6s the day he won, and was sent off at 9/2, whereas in his four previous runs (including one Bumper one) 20 to 1 was the shortest he was sent off at, so obviously 'improved massive' for 'first run in a handicap' , and a fair deal must've been expected that day. could easily be "well in on the handicap" , but, atc, i'd rather be a 3/4 place layer here based on his overall profile

am basing my picks , selections etc on the ground being the same as the going description mentioned above, but the ground could well change on account of time of year - tis in Scotland tho, so we'll hardly be seeing it go better than 'Good' anyhow. if it did get slightly better, then i don't think it would inconvenience any o' me picks; and it might (just guessing here, as per ) just hinder the [current] jolly's chances on t'other hand, if it got (the ground/going) worser, it could only help ye jolly's chances, imo

weather forecast has it as cloudy with little precipitation expected, so that'll do me

g'l

nothing there

out of three picks, Glentruan was the best of them coming in 5th

[Enoch Von Clausewitz]

Tuesday 28th March

Huntingdon - Good to soft-good in places

on her 2nd hurdles' run and on better ground, i'd gi'e MOIRAI 33/1 an each way squeak in 2,o'c

[Enoch Von Clausewitz]

3.00 Huntingdon

ESTACAS 11/2 WIN+EW. a big-priced 2nd on his lto and third hurdles' run. a replication of that showing should see him go very close today. looks about a 3 to 1 shot to me. the horse - Welsh Charger - that beat him that day has since franked the form of that Feb 23 Ludlow win, by following up with a second and a first over that course and distance, so the form of the selection's 2nd looks rock solid

g'l

[Enoch Von Clausewitz]

tek punt on Luke Comer's second string, THATBOATHASSAILED 80/1 EW, on just her 6th start in Dundalk 8,30. Dylan Browne McMonagle takes over from inexperienced app C Geerdharry - who was atop the 5yo filly the last twice. is a good price anyhow, and perhaps today's more seasoned jock can steer the filly to victory

[Enoch Von Clausewitz]

me has a hunch each way double

Monday,, 3rd April

Lingfield 5.15 HIT MAC Newcastle 8.30 REDZONE

[Enoch Von Clausewitz]

4.40 Newmarket

2000 Guineas

SILVER KNOTT 11/1 will do me each way here. A course and distance winner as a 2yo and in a very fast time leaves me thinking that his chance is just as good as pretty much anything else here - in a race where nothing stands out on overall form

ROYAL SCOTSMAN @ 10/1 will do as a second each way pick here. Ground is Good to Soft atm but a jockey there reckoned it could be soft come this race time.

[Enoch Von Clausewitz]

5.55 Doncaster


six go to post here, with five of them unraced.

Louella 33/1 is one of those five unraced ones, and from a trainer's yard what wouldn't be considered in the top division as far as winning quality races - or even a lowly maiden

anyhow, I think this one's breeding will be suited to the Soft (gd to sft in plcs) Going.

is a hopeful bet as very little info to go on, and just the two places, but will do a lil each way on LOUELLA here

[Enoch Von Clausewitz]

Louella not good enough today alas. last or second last finish for that one

chance one more - a few on the site not in swear filter ....# here... , are of the opinion that MOUNTBATTEN -- 6/1 WIN -- in 8.25 Doncaster can go well

#least I don't think Boards.ie is on it (wouldn't make sense anyhow, but the loud minority have no problems censoring/cancelling etc ) - Guess I'll find out when I hit 'preview post'

I agree with them Boardsies. Horse has never ran on Soft going, but I think it'll be no problem for Mountbatten. most of these are soft ground performers, so that's probably why me selection is as big as he is, and I do consider him overpriced

can't conclusively say he'll win, or come placed even, but he definitely can't be ruled out here, and might, on another day be a 7/2 shot

give MOUNTBATTEN a NAP VOTE here. will go WIN only as there's only two places with the 2 NRs reducing the field to seven runners, and I think it won't come second - maybe 3rd, 4th, or nowhere even [if don't win that is } , but just can't see him come 2nd

Also, the Sire can produce some soft-ground performers; hence the mention of liking the ground, above, and Dam Sire is out of a renowned soft/heavy ground performer in Danehill Dancer

happy enough with this one having solid claims, and at the prices he looks a solid contender <regardless of how he runs>

good luck to punters on here having a puntee

[Enoch Von Clausewitz]

Louella not good enough today alas. last or second last finish for that one

chance one more - a few on the site not in swear filter ....# here... , are of the opinion that MOUNTBATTEN -- 6/1 WIN -- in 8.25 Doncaster can go well

#least I don't think Boards.ie is on it (wouldn't make sense anyhow, but the loud minority have no problems censoring/cancelling etc ) - Guess I'll find out when I hit 'preview post'

I agree with them Boardsies. Horse has never ran on Soft going, but I think it'll be no problem for Mountbatten. most of these are soft ground performers, so that's probably why me selection is as big as he is, and I do consider him overpriced

can't conclusively say he'll win, or come placed even, but he definitely can't be ruled out here, and might, on another day be a 7/2 shot

give MOUNTBATTEN a NAP VOTE here. will go WIN only as there's only two places with the 2 NRs reducing the field to seven runners, and I think it won't come second - maybe 3rd, 4th, or nowhere even [if don't win that is } , but just can't see him come 2nd

Also, the Sire can produce some soft-ground performers; hence the mention of liking the ground, above, and Dam Sire is out of a renowned soft/heavy ground performer in Danehill Dancer

happy enough with this one having solid claims, and at the prices he looks a solid contender <regardless of how he runs>

good luck to punters on here having a puntee

wins at a friendly - very friendly price of 10/1

me neighbours prolly think i'm off me rocka !!

was offering "encouragement" from me couch

doubt many saw my post, but hope one or three good folks on here might've been swayed into a small win on @Mountbatten

[Enoch Von Clausewitz]

8.15 Lingfield

in hope he'll be held up from box 7 , AJRAD 10/1 , can go well here, and will go each way in hope the horse goes the shortest way around. trainer and jockey top the leaderboard as far as course winners goes - which offers some encouragement

looks like it's the favourite's race to lose does this - Inverinate, who's a 5/4 shot, needs to only replicate lto Chelmsford run to oblige here,, but Lingfield a different track, and the eight box will likely see him held up - will perhaps need luck in running.. Small win on Inverinate, just in case, but main bet is AJRAD, and will hope today's a going day for him

Essme looks likely leader here, and Alyara is another try make all contender here..

g'luck

[Enoch Von Clausewitz]

8.15 Lingfield

in hope he'll be held up from box 7 , AJRAD 10/1 , can go well here, and will go each way in hope the horse goes the shortest way around. trainer and jockey top the leaderboard as far as course winners goes - which offers some encouragement

looks like it's the favourite's race to lose does this - Inverinate, who's a 5/4 shot, needs to only replicate lto Chelmsford run to oblige here,, but Lingfield a different track, and the eight box will likely see him held up - will perhaps need luck in running.. Small win on Inverinate, just in case, but main bet is AJRAD, and will hope today's a going day for him

Essme looks likely leader here, and Alyara is another try make all contender here..

g'luck

last !

jockey didn't seem to try a yard when horse was in contention about 2fs out will deffo keep eye out for Ajrad for nxt time..

note to self: another one worth keeping an eye on, for me, is DELVEY, who came 6th in the Lingfield 6.05.. worth chancing over a similar (1m. 2f.) trip , or further even.. made up quite a few lgths late on today from well off the pace; if running closer to pace another time, this lightly raced 4yo might be seen to better effect

[Enoch Von Clausewitz]

Curragh

2,25 TANGO FLARE 17/2 EW , MOONEISTA 11/2 EW

3,40 UP AND UNDER 25/1 EW

UTTOXETER

3,52 MR YEATS 13/2 EW

singles + 2 each way trebles & 5 each way doubles

gd luck

[Enoch Von Clausewitz]

will chance an outsider :

4,35 Pontefract. MORNING DARLING 66/1 EW

[Enoch Von Clausewitz]

chance 2 races on Kempton all weather today

4,30

Sant Alessio 8/11. looks a stacked maiden, this, with lots of big yards represented.... was well backed lto on his debut when finishing a good second... broke late then and was held up..

bigger field today.. is drawn close to rails in box 2 here, and if similar holdup tactics are employed, then this punted on jolly (was 10/11 earlier today) could be vulnerable from his close to rails possy...

verdict - Sant Alessio worth a 3-place-lay @ ~ 1/6 & 4-place-lay @ ~ 1/10

think it's a value pick more than anything else; does look best in the lineup, am hoping some of the newcomers are up to the mark, and that the favourite has troublesome passage

no win/each way pick for this one, but i'll redress that balance with two in the next


5,00

i'm opposing Simcock's in the first but am going for one of his here. KING'S SCHOOL 15/2 EW, was held up and finished 4th of eight on his first start. that was over a mile on the Newcastle AW. stiffer Kempton track should see better showing from him here, imo. looks a 4/1 shot to me..

a second pick in same race:

IFFRAAJ QUEEN 50/1 EW. this filly looks like she should be less than half her current odds - have her as an eighteen to one shot for this - i feel.. has benefit of two runs and first time tonguestrap for to aid cause.. is being stepped up in trip from 7f's to a mile.. sire is Iffraaj, so thinking is: 'the further, the better'

[Enoch Von Clausewitz]

nothing in 4.30 - Sant Alessio gets 2nd spot

Amy Murphy's Toromoro places at massive price , so bodes well for Iffraaj Queen's prospects methinks in 5.00

[Enoch Von Clausewitz]

chance 2 races on Kempton all weather today

4,30

Sant Alessio 8/11. looks a stacked maiden, this, with lots of big yards represented.... was well backed lto on his debut when finishing a good second... broke late then and was held up..

bigger field today.. is drawn close to rails in box 2 here, and if similar holdup tactics are employed, then this punted on jolly (was 10/11 earlier today) could be vulnerable from his close to rails possy...

verdict - Sant Alessio worth a 3-place-lay @ ~ 1/6 & 4-place-lay @ ~ 1/10

think it's a value pick more than anything else; does look best in the lineup, am hoping some of the newcomers are up to the mark, and that the favourite has troublesome passage

no win/each way pick for this one, but i'll redress that balance with two in the next


5,00

i'm opposing Simcock's in the first but am going for one of his here. KING'S SCHOOL 15/2 EW, was held up and finished 4th of eight on his first start. that was over a mile on the Newcastle AW. stiffer Kempton track should see better showing from him here, imo. looks a 4/1 shot to me..

a second pick in same race:

IFFRAAJ QUEEN 50/1 EW. this filly looks like she should be less than half her current odds - have her as an eighteen to one shot for this - i feel.. has benefit of two runs and first time tonguestrap for to aid cause.. is being stepped up in trip from 7f's to a mile.. sire is Iffraaj, so thinking is: 'the further, the better'

in 5.00 Iffraaj Queen gets second, King's School out the places - settle for that today

[Enoch Von Clausewitz]

Tuesday, 14th Nov

Newcastle. Standard Going

1.05

ALREET CHA ~8/1 1/2 pt EW . hopeful pick. 1st run weren't up to much, but that was first run and it was a decent race too - a Class3 on soft ground at York. Going by breeding here: Dandy Man's progenies go well on the Tapeta surface at places like Newcastle & Wolves.. they seem to prefer ~6f's, so just taking a flyer here as race is over sevenF's. Trainer Craig Lidster is three from thirteen in last ~3wks with two of those wins coming at the course.. was sure this one was given as a #paper 50/1 shot when me had a luke last night - #well, t'interweb, but same thing am guessing there must be a lot of interest in this one for some reason to have her at such a short price...

in same race, i'm a bit dubious re the claims of the short-priced Haggas jolly Mahato ~ 4/9 . won nicely -very nicely- lto at Windsor. that was sole start, and on the turf. not sure that he will be entirely suited by seven furlonges here (going on breeding again).. on flip side, the raced ones here don't look up to much and he may not have much to beat.. still, horse is very short. assuming he's similarly prohibitively priced closer to off, will chance win and 3-place-lays on this one.. Will call it €5 per point , and will chance risk 1pt on each of da lays

3.25

have three selections here. all have good and solid claims. don't see anything else in lineup that is screaming out to be backed.. will be very disappointed if one -at least- of these can't go very close :

BROCTUNE RED ~11/2 EW , PERFECT SWISS ~7/1 EW , DANIELSFLYER ~12/1 EW.. 1pt e/w on each of the trio


Wolverhampton. Standard Going

4.15

REWILDING ~11/2 1pt win.. horse can go well from prominent position so box four should be fine.. not the only one what likes to be 'in the van' , so will hope that young Hayley can get a decent pitch on Robert Cowell's ungelded son of Night Of Thunder... has only ran twice on Tapeta surface and both those runs were over course & distance, and Rewilding has a 1st and a fourth from them runs... has ran several times on turf and Polytrack course w/o producing much.. a horse for courses pick this one.. not a great price tbf - 'paper' has this one as 14/1 poke

5.25

VIRIDIAN ~12/1 1pt EW. first two runs leave little to be enthused about. hoping for better here. not a massive price, but a speculative enough pick nonetheless. has raced prominent the last twice with no success. perhaps different tactics/course can eke out some improvement from Haggas inmate.. the jolly has strong claims and has gone closish a few times; but Debora's Dream has it all to prove here, imo, on his first go at the track/surface.. if wins, then it wins, but am not too concerned about this one...

8,30

AE FOND KISS 18/1 1pt EW. topweight here, has only one win from eighteen runs. usually operates in Class5's, and this a Class6.. has shown once or twice over shorter trips -9/10f's- that 12f should be okay, as was staying on at the end in two recent 10f races (both in August) , and the one time she ran at the course, Ae Fond Kiss seemed to go well enough then.. that was in October of last year when finishing third over the extended mile. enough to like

GHOSTLY ~10/1 1pt WIN. a lto winner over almost identical trip at Newcastle, and has three wins at Wolverhampton course <altho two were over approx 2furlongs shorter, and t'other over approx 2furlonges further than this race's distance> . hard to ignore here, esp at price.

on form, and at the prices, I think Ae Fond Kiss is the pick of the litter here

didn't mean to put over half the text in bold, but am unable to get riddovit now

[Enoch Von Clausewitz]

^^^^^
rubbish !



tomorrow, 17th Nov: Newcastle - Standard

5,20


go with two here:

Butler's Upper Hand ~3/1 sets decent standard but is fair short. has a second over this trip and that was on soft going at Yarmouth. his lto 6th at Chelmsford over 6f when staying on at a shortish price gives reason enough to oppose, as was beaten 6Lgths that day.

the picks:

QUIET AFFAIR 14/1 EW. showed improved form when coming 4th over a furlong shorter y'day at Kempton; which isn't bestest of form, but this one's price looks decent. hard to know about the trip but Equiano's go well on Tapeta surface, so'll do me

MEHIGBURN 16/1 EW. another one what's hard to gauge what type of trip is required. has ran seven times in total, with 6 of those runs over the minimum. his August run at Southwell was the only one of those runs which wasn't over 5F's. horse come 5th of ten that day over the Southwell 6F trip and was keeping on that day at the end. am hoping tomorrow's extra furlong will be more of a help than a hindrance.

can't make solid case for anything at all here, but the race is wide open and the prices available on the two picks look fair fair

hoping for better, but will settle for one placerre here

will go €3 e/w on em both

[Enoch Von Clausewitz]

no joy today with Mehigburn other pick a non runner

one for tomorrow

Saturday, 18th Nov.

Lingfield - Standard

3,11

Mischief Magic currently leads market at ~ 6/4, with some going a tick or so above or below. Could be a fast run race this.... Mischief Magic won a similar race lto in a fast time.. that was a 6 horse race though at Kempton, and eleven are due to go to post here... it was also on Standard to Slow going, and this time the horse will be going left handed as well ..

none of the rest have out and out claims- 5 of his ten opponents are course and distance winners, whereas M M has never even ran at Lingfield.. the Godolphin gelding doesn't need to be close to pace to go well in his races, but, if he finds himself shuffled back towards rear, he might have too much ground to make up late

Mischief Magic is a winner over ~5 1/2F's from over in America, so not one to draw line thru completely..

anyhoo, if he's a similar, or shorter, price tomorrow, then me'll likely do three-place-lay here if can get matched at ~1.35 (~1/3 ) or therebouttes. it's currently 11/2 bar, so reckon that (as long as horse don't drift) the Appleby jolly might even go off short as ~1/4 for three places here, and I might go four-place-lay an' all

onto a pick:

plenty in with chances, and although she's housed in box nine, I think PINK CRYSTAL ~11/2 is fairly versatile and looks to have the least to prove out of all these. will go each way on this one. no massive stakes here: worth a win at 4s or bigger, and I think 11/2 is as short as I'd like for each way. Boyle's go 6/1 PC and i'll go E5 each way on the Shamardal filly

[Enoch Von Clausewitz]

tomorrow at HQ

Cheltenham. Going is Good to Soft - Soft in Places

they were raving earlier on today how a deluge is expected tonight/tomorrow morning at the course. the going may well be close to heavy yet



with that in mind, i believe both on form and at the prices, that for small money I have three quality picks here in the 1.10 five places available so why not

a lot of the single figured ones have questions to answer imo...

1,10

CHAMBARD 11/1 EW. came 4th at the course lto over very similar trip. is a previous winner at the course on soft ground. jockey gets on well with horse = good enough

GRANDADS COTTAGE 22/1 EW. has an absence to overcome but not too worried about that. has done nothing wrong in last five races which were ran at upwards of trips of 2.5m's.. don't think extra distance a major worry, and horse goes well on soft/heavy type going. could be a post facto 'how was he let go off at THAT price?' type job- looks big to me anyhow...

one more in a race where I could give four or five more similarish claims to the three picks, but I aint backing a Tony Martin one here, and certainly not at single figure prices...

PLENTY OF TIME 33/1 EW. an outsider with a squeak. apart from sole PtP winning run, Syd Hosie's mare has never ran on proper soft going.. didn't seem to stay lto in a shorter race, so must be a reason why she's entered here. is lightly raced....

although I believe I've three good ones picked here, am far from confident. about 50/50 I get at least one in the money as race so wide open. one winner and zero placers I'll settle for in this amateur jockeys' Handicap

....

[Enoch Von Clausewitz]

^^^
sfa there

one today:

5.45 Wolverhampton

SAVIOUR 11/2 WIN

not liking John Gosden's Majed, the 9/4 2nd fav here - think this one might want shorter.. the slightly odds on/even money Godolphin jolly Bold Style is a newcomer, so have to draw a line thru him here...

Saviour has come third on Lingfield AW and third on Salisbury turf in two races each over a mile... the extended mile should suit here and Saviour looks capable of going close on his third outing.. could be a 3/1 shot on another day I feel - so looks value also

[Enoch Von Clausewitz]

^^^
sfa there

one today:

5.45 Wolverhampton

SAVIOUR 11/2 WIN

not liking John Gosden's Majed, the 9/4 2nd fav here - think this one might want shorter.. the slightly odds on/even money Godolphin jolly Bold Style is a newcomer, so have to draw a line thru him here...

Saviour has come third on Lingfield AW and third on Salisbury turf in two races each over a mile... the extended mile should suit here and Saviour looks capable of going close on his third outing.. could be a 3/1 shot on another day I feel - so looks value also

no good - 4th