Horse Racing

[Enoch Von Clausewitz]

Going is Good (Good to Soft in places) per Taunton Racecard....


.... according to chappes at le course, the already dryish ground will be drying out all the time, owing to wind - which'll be blowing into horses' faces as headwind..

.... so no excuses for me pick on ye "Going" score

that is all

[Enoch Von Clausewitz]

one for tomorrow:


Friday, 9th Feb

Bangor-On-Dee


Soft-heavy in places


2,20

a marathon race here over close to 3.75miles on practically heavy going,, gone for FURIUS DE CIERGUES ~ 12/1 EW here,,, think only William Hills out of all the layers have this raced priced up atm.. not much diff, but I think this one is 11 to one poke.. price looks big anyway in context of race, and for shrapnel, could still be worth a win go at 7 or 8 to one, and similarly if going each way, looks worth a few coppers at 9 or 10 to one- and bit more at elevens and upwards,,, i'll prolly do summat like €5 WIN & €5 EW if 12s or bigger can be got sometime later on today. won't mind not winning if horse finishes in top three//four <nt sure yet but likely most books will go a fifth the odds four places?> , but don't want to lose at same time, hence win and each way

Furius De Ciergues has only won two races with both of them close to three years ago..

reasons to like are: rarely runs a bad race on heavy ground, Has ran twice at the course and, under different going conditions but similar trip/s, has finished second on each occasion.. horse likes to lead, but can rally if headed and still run sound race... if can't get lead, should still run well from off pace any how..

do me

had a few hot takes in me noggin earlier doors, but i've forgotten them all...
gl

[Enoch Von Clausewitz]

quick look. nothing much appeals on Satuday.. look at a big race:

Newbury - Soft-good to soft in places


2.05

Class1 Chase here over close to 3miles.. the overall form figures are not very inspiring- especially those of the main protagonists...

Paper has Shishkin as 4/7 shot, which is fair skimpy,, books are a lot bigger at 8/11.. still very skimpy,,, can't be having.. looks gone at the game this 10yo.. unseated rider lto and prior to that refused to line up at Ascot.. very short as is, but a return to form can't be fully ruled out.. no point at all in backing this one.. on offchance it goes off at 8/15 or shorter, then mebbe me'll risk ~€2.50 on win and place-lay both..

Protektorat is also short enough at two to one for one what aint won in over a year... has never ran at the course either.. if it does win, it'll go unbacked by me

Paul Nicholls won this as recently as 2021.. HITMAN 10/1 WIN has ran three poor races recently, and tho it was a race ran on much better ground, he still came second then in last year's renewal.. horse has ran three times overall at the course and has form figures of 1/3/2 from them three runs: not to shabby...

tough to call how this race''ll pan out.. most these are very versatile, so can't get any angle on who'll be first to look 'most likely' at around half mile from home point... I don't even have solid idea on whether my pick will come placed here but i do think he's closer to seven to one shot than 10s.. think i'll go, possibly, €10 WIN here, and try to do inrunning cover/s using up about three of those points: perhaps put up lays smth like €4 @ 2/1 , €6 @ 6/4 & mebbe €15 at evs... if horse gets laid at short prices and loses, me'll make about €15 profit, and, if it wins, then me'll still win but will take loss of 3.2 (close enough to three ) points

trainer's record in this race is a good stat/fair 'reason to be cheerfulle'.. Paul Nicholls' record in last four renewals: 2020 - 2nd of 6 , 2021 (2 runners) - 1st and 2nd of 7 , 2022 - 3rd of five & most recently, his HITMAN come 2nd of seven in 2023..

on three of those occasions when Nicholls didn't win, two were won by the Tizzards and one from the Hobbs' yard.. Venetia Williams also had a second in this when her Royal Pagaille finished second to Colin's (same stable nowadays, or close enough <they change yards often enough some of these trainers>, but his son, Joe Tizzard, is boss there nowadays anyhoo ) Eldorado Allen in '22....

.... point of the above is: none of those three (Tizzard , Hobbs , Venetia) trainers are represented here, so green shoot...

thought for the day - Fk me, it's cold!


that''s my thinking.. WIN on HITMAN & inrunning lays / *'covers' .... *or 'potential' covers; if horse runs no kind of race, me'll lose anyhow ; and will go win and <2>place lay on Shishkin if he trades at 8/15 (for win) or shorter come race-day/time or




gl

[Enoch Von Clausewitz]

another for Sat'dee

had a look at another jumps meet:

Warwick: Soft-good to soft in places

3,30 "Kingmaker" Novices chase

Bourbali ~14/1 is a bit of an unknown quantity, but could be the *key here... Nigel's Matata ~2/5 heads ye bettinge here, and is surely the one to beat..

hard to be confident on Bourbali, and on account of his 14/1 price, i'm a gonna rule him out - sound logic there Bourbali has won five races in total, with four over hurdles and latterly a chase win.. has done most of his winning on predominantly good ground, and most of his hurdling victories came at around 2.5 miles, and interestingly, the shortest he's won over is when gaining that Kempton win three runs back.. Soft ground, as well as the drop in trippe are reasons enough to consider opposing here,, is a very tasty price tho, and is the proverbial and literal outsider of three.. Verdict: don't let me put ya off him..

Matata ~2/5 has the beating of these on all known/recent form, but can be opposed methinkes..

selection here is Skelton's PEMBROKE 11/4.. Pembroke finished an 8lghts third on his lto run.. the jolly here, Matata, finished 2nd then but was 7.5 lengths the better of my pick; that day at least..

*by my calculations, I think Matata & Bourbali will take each other on up front.. PEMBROKE usually sits off the pace, and can hopefully win either on merit, or the two in front 'fall into a hole' and ~'gift' race to me pick..

Pembroke is definitely a sporting bet here, and I can see how he could be backed into a lot shorter price than currently available; and I can see him hitting 15/8 or close to it... can't say for sure for sure he'll win, but i'll likely go €10 "nosejob" (ie win only) here heghehgghhjj



gl

[Enoch Von Clausewitz]

one for tomorrow:


Friday, 9th Feb

Bangor-On-Dee


Soft-heavy in places


2,20

a marathon race here over close to 3.75miles on practically heavy going,, gone for FURIUS DE CIERGUES ~ 12/1 EW here,,, think only William Hills out of all the layers have this raced priced up atm.. not much diff, but I think this one is 11 to one poke.. price looks big anyway in context of race, and for shrapnel, could still be worth a win go at 7 or 8 to one, and similarly if going each way, looks worth a few coppers at 9 or 10 to one- and bit more at elevens and upwards,,, i'll prolly do summat like €5 WIN & €5 EW if 12s or bigger can be got sometime later on today. won't mind not winning if horse finishes in top three//four <nt sure yet but likely most books will go a fifth the odds four places?> , but don't want to lose at same time, hence win and each way

Furius De Ciergues has only won two races with both of them close to three years ago..

reasons to like are: rarely runs a bad race on heavy ground, Has ran twice at the course and, under different going conditions but similar trip/s, has finished second on each occasion.. horse likes to lead, but can rally if headed and still run sound race... if can't get lead, should still run well from off pace any how..

do me

had a few hot takes in me noggin earlier doors, but i've forgotten them all...
gl

not sure this meet is going ahead no odds up with books; supposedly was an inspection earlier on this eve, but dinna how it went

[Enoch Von Clausewitz]

couple at fundalk

Dundalk - Standard

4,30

ARMY OF INDIA ~ 33/1 WIN.... no each way as less than five runners here,,, hopeful pick at big price,, out of form lately, but at least broke well lto; which is an improvement on the rest of his three previous runs with current connections... finished well down the field then, but worth ~€2 or summat anyhoo at massive price... might try inrunning lay at right short odds here; just in case it a: breaks well to lead, and b: gets uncontested lead.. might risk ~5pts profit going at odds between, p'raps, 1/6 and 1/4... not expecting anything here, not even a run for me money; hope is all


5,30

TAKE ME TO CHURCH 3/1 WIN.. has a fairly long <100 days> layoff to contend with, so nt sure what to make of that: I know:- i'll price it got one badly wrong t'other day, so there's that I have this one as a 2/1 shot - with no fitness concerns, but they are there, so about a 5/2 shot methinks....

why I think he'll win/can go well is: he got his act together lto, ie won, and that was, granted, a poor enough race and one ran over a furlong shorter at the course, lto; and, as well as that, it's his sire, Churchill, what makes him appeal as one what might be even better over further,, Dandy Man is sire on dam side, so that's good an' all as his progeny go well on synthetic surfaces;they seem to run at places like Newcastle and Wolves a lot

is a sporting bet at 3/1 and worth a fiver win imo,.. or if yer brave, go a tenner

Emerald Eclipse is the one to beat and might be just about priced right at 5/4, but this skimy shorty represents no real appeal.. not putting anyone off here; not going any lays or place-lays on this JO'B inmate neither.. might be a bet for heavy odds on punters for to come in first two.. if i was interested -which i aint- it wouldn't be peeked at any less than 4/7... not touching or recommending this one tho... the third fav, Sobriety, aint exactly looking like a winner in waiting -at least not for today... looks 2 horse race to me: between top two in bettinge methinkes.... as cover of sorts for me mahoosive win bet, me might yet do forecast on fav to finish first and my pick to take the two spot... at current prices, that'd certainly look appealing, but will prolly wait for opening show before doing so


________________________


"thunder stealer" obbo , or 'hot take' if ya will...

on the topic of latest contributor, Bucky Larson ~10/1 is currently reserve in Dundalk 6,o'c race,,,, this race is over a mile.. horse was a right moneyspinner -albeit at a moderate level- when with Ger Lyons, but aint done fk all in yonks,...

no opinion on this horse and not looking at the race.... reason for obbo is: Enoch thinks that possibly young "Bucky" got word (merely hypopulating here ) in times recent that this one had a big race in him, so decided to sign up for that reason.... me could be wrong on that score, but it's all about predictions and me sure does like making em

____________

in other news, me Newbury HITMAN pick, seems to be on the drifte.. seems a general 12/1 shot atm; me thought 10s was good.. anyhow, no too bothered about that... am used to me predictions/picks getting turned over plenty lately



will hope for better this wkend


gl

[Enoch Von Clausewitz]

nothing doinge in 4,30 will hope for better in 5,30 at fundalk venue

[Enoch Von Clausewitz]

keep me eye in and look at nxt dys' rassing

#that would be next to days me's already luked at; so that'd make it Sunday... don't expect to win here, but there's gotta be a reward for all us study


Sunday, 11th Feb


Lingfield - Standard

lotta picks here; but like said above, keeping eye in give meselfe about 48.3% chance of catching winner, and prolly no more than 40% chance of making any kind of discernible -upwards of 15% be at upper end of 'discernible' - profit, on overall 'provisional' picks... will see if back any when prices come out,,, atm they all look fine; that's going on probable SP on racecarde/internette

anyroad, someone might get an idea or two from us ruminations lesser and lesser room in this nation as time goes on tho,,,,,,,,,,,,
the three i'm looking at:


TAWTHEEF WIN ~5/1.. looks one what can go close or rattle crossbar w/o possibly winning here, but just might... paper has him as 5/1 shot: good enuffe... former winner at the course, albeit on turf,,, came 2nd over CD lto on the AW track.. not screaming winner, but i'll go 2/3 yoyos win if no shorter than threes... paper has him at 5s... not sure what price i think he will/should be, but at 3s or above, i don't think anyone'll be getting ripped off....


FOREVER PROUD WIN ~5/1... yet to win after 13 runs.. top jock Rab Havlin was aboard lto when finishing a respectable third over course and distance... Rab's on something else here, but not reading much into that.... he's only got the two rides at this meet, has young Robert, so that's interesting enough in itself... apart from his ride on Miss Tiki ~12/1 , in this race, the only other horse he's down to ride is I'm Mable in the 2.57..

i am, however, taking jockey booking/s into consideration here... 4yo filly didn't do much when with previous trainer, James Horton; but his first run for current connections saw Liam Wright (7) take the mount... not taking an overly critical analysis of jockey bookings -mainly looking for green shootes- ; but i do think this one's chances could be seriously aided with lesser weight.....

...... in her recent races, horse has ran close to the pace , been held up, had to go out wide, so i reckon they'll know what it takes to get a win out of her at this stage -if she can put it all together here.... box six a bit of an unknown here.... would like if she was drawn lower so as to give her a chance to settle inside; cos if she can't or decides to go wide, then jig could be up.. about a 9/2 shot methinks, nd mebbe a 7/2 or 4/1 poke if had slightly lower draw, or if someone could make a better case for her than me...



IFTIKHAAR WIN/EW ~12/1. yet to win in 14 runs.. and another (nowt unusual there) what has had more than one set of connections... not greatly drawn in box eight here, but if good enough should be able to take her pitch.. nothing much to go on on form - apart from one piece.. that was her course and distance second in October, but it was the first any only time Danny was on board... had to race wide that day from box eleven in eleven runner race... far as pricing up this one's chances, i think i make this one in or around a 15/2 - 17/2 shotte..

have ruled out most of the rest... with all me pickes, i'd need to be getting a winner here!! anyhow, paper has Moon Over The Sea as 5/2 jolly in this 1m. 2f. Cl6 Classified race.. reasons to expect/hope this one gets beat: has never ran at Lingfield , has four wins in total but none of those were over 10Furlonges.... has won (twice) on the AW but both times it was on Standard/slow going, albeit on differing/different types of AW surfaces...
..... so, can go well on AW is slight negative here; main negatives are: is proven winner and is in form... not backing this one, but if i was, i'd be happy with 5/2.. still and all, i think something beats this one... not sure what price this one's gonna go off at, and not gonna try second guess and do something even stupider by sticking a decent amount on at 5/2 (if it's available) and laying off at ~7/4... can't rule out, but nothing doing on this one for me...

have yet to convince meselfe if i'll do any or all of these.. if i do, i'm thinking along lines of:

TAWTHEEF ~5/1 ~€3 WIN

FOREVER PROUD ~5/1 ~ €3 WIN

IFTIKHAAR ~ 12/1 €3 WIN/ €3 EW

also, perhaps do , mebbe, a ~50cent combi forecast... to best of us knowledge, this aint regarded as handicap race, so likely no books going tricaste.. just toying with backing these atm, but if tricasts are available to do here, then me'd also do ~50cent combi won of those...
=
that's me thoughts atm.. no 'hot takes' today.. see bucky didn't make the grade for fundalk- a reserve that didn't get in methinkes... don't know how that reserve system workes


that is all......

got a long overdue winner, as Take Me To Church grinded it out nicely at business end to win pretty much going away = 'reasons to be cheerfulle" , yay

Enoch's hot take : me like exactitudes -like me 48.3% mennsiohne up top ; not caring if it aint a real word, but it sure is fun on the offchance someone says: "how far to wherever.." / me: "about 437yds" / them:

ok, can file ye above in 'things what never happened', but can't be completely ruled oot' cattagohree

can't get any of the ITV stations no more, but will be able to watch Newbury race on sky as they've got broadcasting rights nowadays, so dat ok

gl

[Bucky]

keep me eye in and look at nxt dys' rassing

#that would be next to days me's already luked at; so that'd make it Sunday... don't expect to win here, but there's gotta be a reward for all us study


Sunday, 11th Feb


Lingfield - Standard

lotta picks here; but like said above, keeping eye in give meselfe about 48.3% chance of catching winner, and prolly no more than 40% chance of making any kind of discernible -upwards of 15% be at upper end of 'discernible' - profit, on overall 'provisional' picks... will see if back any when prices come out,,, atm they all look fine; that's going on probable SP on racecarde/internette

anyroad, someone might get an idea or two from us ruminations lesser and lesser room in this nation as time goes on tho,,,,,,,,,,,,
the three i'm looking at:


TAWTHEEF WIN ~5/1.. looks one what can go close or rattle crossbar w/o possibly winning here, but just might... paper has him as 5/1 shot: good enuffe... former winner at the course, albeit on turf,,, came 2nd over CD lto on the AW track.. not screaming winner, but i'll go 2/3 yoyos win if no shorter than threes... paper has him at 5s... not sure what price i think he will/should be, but at 3s or above, i don't think anyone'll be getting ripped off....


FOREVER PROUD WIN ~5/1... yet to win after 13 runs.. top jock Rab Havlin was aboard lto when finishing a respectable third over course and distance... Rab's on something else here, but not reading much into that.... he's only got the two rides at this meet, has young Robert, so that's interesting enough in itself... apart from his ride on Miss Tiki ~12/1 , in this race, the only other horse he's down to ride is I'm Mable in the 2.57..

i am, however, taking jockey booking/s into consideration here... 4yo filly didn't do much when with previous trainer, James Horton; but his first run for current connections saw Liam Wright (7) take the mount... not taking an overly critical analysis of jockey bookings -mainly looking for green shootes- ; but i do think this one's chances could be seriously aided with lesser weight.....

...... in her recent races, horse has ran close to the pace , been held up, had to go out wide, so i reckon they'll know what it takes to get a win out of her at this stage -if she can put it all together here.... box six a bit of an unknown here.... would like if she was drawn lower so as to give her a chance to settle inside; cos if she can't or decides to go wide, then jig could be up.. about a 9/2 shot methinks, nd mebbe a 7/2 or 4/1 poke if had slightly lower draw, or if someone could make a better case for her than me...



IFTIKHAAR WIN/EW ~12/1. yet to win in 14 runs.. and another (nowt unusual there) what has had more than one set of connections... not greatly drawn in box eight here, but if good enough should be able to take her pitch.. nothing much to go on on form - apart from one piece.. that was her course and distance second in October, but it was the first any only time Danny was on board... had to race wide that day from box eleven in eleven runner race... far as pricing up this one's chances, i think i make this one in or around a 15/2 - 17/2 shotte..

have ruled out most of the rest... with all me pickes, i'd need to be getting a winner here!! anyhow, paper has Moon Over The Sea as 5/2 jolly in this 1m. 2f. Cl6 Classified race.. reasons to expect/hope this one gets beat: has never ran at Lingfield , has four wins in total but none of those were over 10Furlonges.... has won (twice) on the AW but both times it was on Standard/slow going, albeit on differing/different types of AW surfaces...
..... so, can go well on AW is slight negative here; main negatives are: is proven winner and is in form... not backing this one, but if i was, i'd be happy with 5/2.. still and all, i think something beats this one... not sure what price this one's gonna go off at, and not gonna try second guess and do something even stupider by sticking a decent amount on at 5/2 (if it's available) and laying off at ~7/4... can't rule out, but nothing doing on this one for me...

have yet to convince meselfe if i'll do any or all of these.. if i do, i'm thinking along lines of:

TAWTHEEF ~5/1 ~€3 WIN

FOREVER PROUD ~5/1 ~ €3 WIN

IFTIKHAAR ~ 12/1 €3 WIN/ €3 EW

also, perhaps do , mebbe, a ~50cent combi forecast... to best of us knowledge, this aint regarded as handicap race, so likely no books going tricaste.. just toying with backing these atm, but if tricasts are available to do here, then me'd also do ~50cent combi won of those...
=
that's me thoughts atm.. no 'hot takes' today.. see bucky didn't make the grade for fundalk- a reserve that didn't get in methinkes... don't know how that reserve system workes


that is all......

got a long overdue winner, as Take Me To Church grinded it out nicely at business end to win pretty much going away = 'reasons to be cheerfulle" , yay

Enoch's hot take : me like exactitudes -like me 48.3% mennsiohne up top ; not caring if it aint a real word, but it sure is fun on the offchance someone says: "how far to wherever.." / me: "about 437yds" / them:

ok, can file ye above in 'things what never happened', but can't be completely ruled oot' cattagohree

can't get any of the ITV stations no more, but will be able to watch Newbury race on sky as they've got broadcasting rights nowadays, so dat ok

gl

Bucky's hot take is that he is gratified the you mention him in your posts. However Bucky thinks its best if you no longer do so. Bucky feels that some posters may be envious of this attention. And Bucky has already felt some of their ill feeling. Bucky has no wish to sow disharmony.

Bucky thanks you for your posts and hopes you continue posting your excellent predications. Bucky wishes you well.

[Enoch Von Clausewitz]

Warwick off 2day

my hot take : "aint no Discoverer's Dispensation around here"

just a thought - no need for expounderage.....

in other news; news what be pertinent/jermaine, or wtf else am i doing on horsey forum/s???? , me has me 'Oh My My My, Oh My My, Oh My My, july, July, July, July, July.....' work did...

.. yep, shrewd folk guessed: it's Mundy ----> Monday

nowt kongcrete, about four all told - twixt three races.... about 'free' are about 2/3yoyo win and/or ew pokes , and one be a ~fiver(ish) win type, but that could be upgraded to a tenner yet,,, no probs putting this one on here as a possible €10 win pick, but looks like a shorty in this race could be a non

anyhow, will hope to put up dem picks plus a conny writeup afore 6,30 in the pm tomorrow (Sunday) eve



Enoch's obbo : "I aint no diplomat"

if someone, be they kerntish or otherwise come on here (this site) and give it the big un, like #Teddy mo'fking Rensen in Equaliser, with his "i am here" statement when he knock'd fq outta local Bostonian gangster in construction typee...

.....#well all buckwheats like dat is they get fk all from me...

nxt time, it's ye proverbial "nuclear" (response option....)

if prix want to clout-chase or insert some bohemian wokeishness (strikes me as type) , likely couched in irony then they can: a, do it on another thread/site than this one , or b, best have some equity vis a vee posting posts relevan' to thread..

insofar as point b goes, "buckwheat" burned all them bridges.. so it aint welcome here - wrt to, and all due deference to ye Gub he who is boss on here, so apologies to @Guburnor should he consider me to be making any kind of executive decisions

#getrid

any further need for a response , and it'll be a nuclear one

prik, puttin me in baf mood

that is all

[Enoch Von Clausewitz]

two words for day : "Reciprocity" and "Precedent"

someone starts shít = precedent .. i respond in kind reciprocally and with intereste commensurable

too nice a day for arguing... sun shining, think i'll go outside



gl

[Bucky]

two words for day : "Reciprocity" and "Precedent"

someone starts shít = precedent .. i respond in kind reciprocally and with intereste commensurable

too nice a day for arguing... sun shining, think i'll go outside



gl

Bucky's hot take is that he is saddened by your clear anger. Bucky wishes to assure you that he will no longer post in this thread. Bucky wishes you goodbye.

[Enoch Von Clausewitz]

nowt on Sat'dee , but ya , like , y'k'now , whatevs....

.....onto racinge:


Monday, 12 Feb '23

in other news; news what be pertinent/jermaine, or wtf else am i doing on horsey forum/s???? , me has me 'Oh My My My, Oh My My, Oh My My, july, July, July, July, July.....' work did...

.. yep, shrewd folk guessed: it's Mundy ----> Monday

nowt kongcrete, about four all told - twixt three races.... about 'free' are about 2/3yoyo win and/or ew pokes , and one be a ~fiver(ish) win type, but that could be upgraded to a tenner yet,,, no probs putting this one on here as a possible €10 win pick, but looks like a shorty in this race could be a non

anyhow, will hope to put up dem picks plus a conny writeup afore 6,30 in the pm tomorrow (Sunday) eve

here it be's , juste like me said me wouldstde...


Wolverhampton - Standard

8,0'c

JENNY REN ~10/1 WIN & EW

Some of these have won or ran well recently enough, but they were at places like Southwell and Newcastle; similar track/surface here, but different enough ats; and those were poor races, obvs, so not pushed on ye markette principals

Miss Sligo ~10/3. came 2nd lto at Southwell... likes to frontrun, but is drawn fair wide in box 12: which equalles 'good' no intereste for me this one

Bella Bluesky ~7/2. looks unexposed on flatte as only the three runs thus far. 8yo mare is well raced overall with about 20 runs in NH sphere. is topweight here, and that must count for somethinge, but it was a mickey mouse flat race (also Classified Stakes) what she won then last week. was completely friendless in bettinge that day an' all ...

.... well drawn, but not for me.. deffo can't be ruled out.

Delvey ~7/1 is capable of going close here.. came 2nd four runs back when running over course and distance.. 5yo mare is thirteen runner maiden, so can leave off... hasn't ran as well since that October run; looks as tho race was ran to suit then, and she couldn't win... no obvious reason why she's winning here


give Sao Timothy ~12s a mention as i put him up when he ran lto.. ran no kinda race - not for me


JENNY REN is three time course and distance winner. out of form atm, but two of those runs were in Classified Stakes races, with t'other an ornery Cl6. think she's ~9/1 going win only, and ~14s for each way go -far as value etc, goes... regardless, will back her win and each way here...


El Verdicto JENNY REN €2 WIN , €2 EW



Catterick - Heavy-softe in places


4,o'c

BUSHYPARK ~11/4 WIN

only ran recently; gave Phil Kirby's 10yo little chance then, but also speculated that he had some sort of race in him in events upcoming. couldn't ask for better opportunity, and here it comes in four horse race; well, possibly a 4 horse race..

this is race where i was worried about a possible non runner. provisional fav Minella Trump ~2/1, was a nr three runs back at Aintree - owing to change of going. has run on soft, but mainly runs on going with 'good' in going description. if it turns up heavy, and possibly it will, then Donald McCain's 10yo could be a defector here

BUSHYPARK can have easy lead here, and will hope he's good enough to 'outstay' rivals.. that's his MO and appears no more complicated than that; plus will enjoy underfoot conditionnes..

Le Verdicte: BUSHYPARK €5 WIN... if available at same price as now, or close to it, then it's a tenner win go... will have to reassess if other variables at play, ie if Minella Trump is a non, this one could go off evens.. if short shorty, then mebbe no bette or shrapnel winne


Plumpton - Soft-heavy in places

3,15

wide open and tricky maiden this...

KOENIGSSTERN ~9/2 WIN & EW

likes soft going as won a flat race abroad ~3yrs ago when running at Mulheim... third hurdles start lto, and ran a sound race then when finishing thirde,,, soft going likely helped then (first 2 hurdles' races were ran at two different trips, but, crucially, and in context of this race, those were on much better going) and am hoping it (soft/hvy going) will help here also.. will do plenty good enough as first of two picks here...

SEASIDE LEGEND ~16/1 EW

was with Paul Nicholls and now with Harry Derham. in same ownership.... had first hurdles' start lto so that run can be excused,,, wears cheekpieces for firste time... by Alderflug, so ground conditions should be grande... was unplaced on that aforementioned run when coming 5th of eight runners @ odds of 12/1; did open up a lot shorter that morn with layers, so ye green shoote there

not interested in HMS President ~11/10 or Lario 9/2... haven't got strong opinion/s on themme no how


Les Verdikktes: KOENIGSSTERN €1 WIN , €2 EW
SEASIDE LEGEND €3 EW

gl

in us Lingfield race today at 4,27 , got prices similar to above with two of the three pickes; with Forever Proud a juicy price at 10/1, so was obliged to go each weighe on the filly
don't know what to make of the two jollies here: Stopnseach is general 13/8 poke, with Moon Over The Sea a 7/4 shot... it's 9/2 next best & 10s bar.... at them odds, i'll likely lay the top two for four places, for about €2 apiece, and maybe go the three places as well; all depends on price.... dunno thinking possibly 1.45 apiece-ish for free places, and 1.35 for four spotttes... if at or around them odds, them lay bets is definitely worth considering





too muchhe agg on ere... birrra sweetness and light mefinkes



atm, young Valeriya be us fav U-2ber ooofffff


gl all

[Enoch Von Clausewitz]

hard to look past Willie Mullins' jolliy in 4,45 Navan...

am looking at Conor O'Dwyer horse here.. come thirde in Roscommon Bumper last September, was ~5 lgths clear of the fourth that day. owt what's ran since what finished ahead of ON THE STEEL that day has done nothing to sully formbook.. winner of that Roscommon has ran twice since then, and on both occasions Fleur In The Park finished plcd 2nd in them two subsequent bumpers...

ones down field that day have done nowt, but not worrying about them as they can't all be good

Enoch's Obbo : knowledgeable racing types might share us opinion on that bumper as being a 'solid yardsticke' .... forging onwards

I dinnA , mainly guess on here, but it be ye jibberishe what keeps us amusedde

'Brass Tacks' : - six were declared, Shark's a non runner, of t'other five (including my pick) , JP's is unraced so no opinion there... the jolly and numbers three and four look like pacechasers, and will possibly be up in the van early doors...

... my pick likes to sit mid-div <basing this on scant form only, obvs ) , but Cantico does look most likely 2lead here... he's on the drifte<i think, not checked on earlier price>, but am hoping my pick ON THE STEEL can make his presence felt nonethelesss....

verdict: ON THE STEEL 14/1 €2 WIN , 2-place bettinge: ON THE STEEL ~€3 place @ ~7/2

vbol )))

[Enoch Von Clausewitz]

abradde thought from home...

a thought or two on one of me Lingfield picks, piloted by Kieran Shoemark - he'll always be Willie, to me, will Shoooeyyy

on that 4,27 Lingfield race, young "Shoemaker" was aboard lto for the first time, on @TAWTHEEF. he also gets the leg up today. was held up then, andde though the horse drifted like a barge, from morning price of 6/1 to 14s sp, he still ran a very good from off the pace race to finish second; might've even hit front at one stage then

looks a hold up horse in general. jockey might know more today. looks like a few of these like to get on with it. if horse is held up out back, could end up massive inrunning price/s at some stage in race might try do advance inrunning back @ odds like 16s , 20s , 33s & 40s mebbe.... perhaps a euro on each. yep, investe ~3/4 yoyos there...

.....and on t'other end......

......doesn't look to have much in hand this one (le picke: TAWTHEEF) ats; it's possible he could come swingingge with a run late doors, hit short price, hit the front, hit shorter price, and then get nabbedde might chawnce for a few euros of potential profit from possible winninges (from win bet at ~5/1 - obvs not gawrunteed to gette matchedde on long odds side o' me bet in runne speculatiiownes ) for to lay Tawtheef inrunning between odds of ~1.4 and ~1.1 , smth like tht
that is all

[Enoch Von Clausewitz]

shít at Lingfield there

[Enoch Von Clausewitz]

shít at Lingfield there

apologies; so many horses to concentrate on, me forgotte me didde gette winnere there. Forever Proud oblidgedde ,, yayyyee

[Enoch Von Clausewitz]

have a good reste o' wkend folkes

gl

[Enoch Von Clausewitz]

keep ball rolling... that means keep at trying to finde picks - regardless of how they fare/are faring


anyroad,

tomorrow,
Tuesday, 13th Feb


Lingfield : Soft


they say the going is soft, so am allowing for ground conditions...


4,40

a Cl5 Conditional Jockeys' Hurdle here.

Goguenard ~9/4 carries bottomweight here. won his last two races when making all, or at least racing prominently.. those were marked improvement on all his previous efforts.. all we have to go on is; we know he can win a ~2.5m hurdles' race making all, but this is ~half mile shorter... if this were 2m race, me'd consider ~15/8 a fair price; the horse is -accordinge to paper/racecard- a 9/4 poke.. have no opinion on whether or not this is value -not unfair price is as much as i'll venture .. anyhow, this one aint for me; i think this one's vulnerable to a closer should Goguenard try to lead.. maybe back to lay, p'happes... not for me no how, just a thought....


had a look at Tara Iti ~12/1, here, of Gary Moore stable.. trainer has won this as recently as 2022, and it would be just like him to gette (or try gette ) winner for young jock, plus is big price - relatively speaking... have never heard of the jockey, Mr A Weaver, myself.. hard to make a case for this one, and think/strongly suspecte this one needs better ground... changeable weather, and definitely worth a look if the word 'Good' makes an appearance ye nxte time the going is updated.. whenever that'll be...



My Friend Sean ~ 11/2 and Uncle Arthur ~6/1 are two lightly raced ones here. My Friend Sean has done very little in his four races in NH sphere, and not expectinge much of an improvement come raceday... the ground, should it come up soft as expected, should be fine; but it don't tekk rocket scientiste to profess that this is one what likely/possibly "wants further - on breeding" , and i daresay that likes of Apiafi will suggeste same thing should he be trackside... wouldn't be surprised if he's reading this on here.... was watching racing at Nby on Sat'dee: odds had Hitman @ 12s , presenter talking shoíte ("part and parcel", so there's that: no complaints - just an obbo O) to Aberdeen Alex ....

....anyhow, back to 'studio' , or wherever the presenters were perched on the course, and, in fairness ~5mins or so before ye offe, and the pundittes was giving their pick/s... Josh were sweet on Hitman, who was trimmed into 9s at that stage... moments/couple minutes later when about 1 or 2 mins before the offe, and Hitman still at nines, sorte of laste orders presenter picks, ypung Joshy mentions Hitman twice, and bullishly... noe probs with someone being confident on one at a big price, but the horse were 12s only a fewwe mins previous - why not mention it then?? anyhow, rant over... horse ran well, but was outte the places- which is irrelevant really... I juste think he reads on here- perhappes not .. merely being confidently hubristic on that score w/o being o'er bullishe....

Uncle Arthur is racewinner, but not one to putte too much trust or faith in... winner on soft ground, granted -one of his two wins.. seems trainers don't like holding onto this one (three separate owners too) .... i can't rule him out, but i'll swerve him regardless... if ya can make a case for him, then good lucke to ya.. only thought is: Paper has this one as 6/1 poke; don't know what price he'll open at, but i suspecte this one to hitte ~10/3 - 7/2 price at some stage at least.

i think we can get cracking run for us money fromme the picke here,

JUST OVER LAND ~4/1 NB, WIN

has had six races in total... ran okay w/o pulling up any trees in his first three runs; those were all over ~2m , and all had a deal of 'Soft' in going description... it was inexperience, imo, that caused a few blunders in his earlier races, but can't find any real reason why he'll not be running well this time.. i think 2miles on soft ground is close to perfect for this lad... last and latest run saw him tackle ~2.5m on similarish ground at Chepstow.. chased the pace that day, and seemed to be bang there at about 4f's outttee.... notte exactly the same thing as actually 'winning' a 2m race, but 'Green Shoots' nonetheless... also, that was a Cl4, ie 'better' race, and he was well supported, though tbf, he don't have a lotte of 'drifting like a barge' form in the bettinge in any of his races

think there's loadsa juice in potential 4/1 price.. sire is No Risk At All, and they possibly fare better over further trippes or going chasing... think this is cracking bette going win only; no means a 'lump job' tho...

as to what price i think this one is , or should be; i aint so sure,,, don't want to speculate too oftenne or too much -in case am wrong - but alls i gots to say on this one is:- 'ye won't be getting mugged taking 3s on this one' . it's a tenner for me at 4s tho , nt sure if shorter....

... and on that score, if me e'er finds owt what me considers 'lump job' , me'd like to think it'd at least be 13/8 poke; shur anyone can be bullishe about odds on pokes ....

verdict JUST OVER LAND €5 or €10 WIN is me recommendation here....


Enoch's words for the day - "commensurate" "ire"

Enoch's thought for the day: "think 60/40" in yisser dealings... going to pub restaurants, with mates, whatevs,, keep mental note -no need to write down- and if ye believe ye've contributed close to , upwards , or north of 60% to ye billes/tabbes, then ye be on 'terra cotta' so far as any possible stinginess allegations could be levelled against...

not scaleable really, but for the smaller things, then yeah... not advocating this in any customer/business type transactions, like don't be paying an xtra 20% on seconde hande carres or owt like that,,,,


gl:0)

[Enoch Von Clausewitz]

^^^^

don't have accountes with either, but checked bettinge page and it seems Freddy and 365 have this race priced up... 365 have my pick and Goguenard both at 11/4

just wanted to acknowledge that, lest there be any accusations of bullshítting towards not so younge Enoch,,,

it's the internette racecard prices what me uses as guide when making selectionnnes, and one would imagine that that should be fair guide

meanwhile, no joy in 3,15... 2 horses i had no opinion on finished 2nd and first in orderre of my mentioning that i was unable to formulate opinion ... Koenigsstern came third, but was never an each way proposition at the ~3/1 mark he opened up at, and never got any bigger... went win only on him

anyhoo....

gl

[Enoch Von Clausewitz]

washout today

pick way too short at 5/4, not even shrapnel on it at dem crazy oddes that's all

gl

[Enoch Von Clausewitz]

Speaking of "shenanigans" , as i oftenne do in course of writing out postes; me does me previewing/editing, etc, and arter me post is sent/saved, whatevs, me has to back-space a lotte for to exit ye page..

seems, or at least it did so, that every change/edit or preview addeth up to one view per 'actionne' , for want of a better worde,,

anyhow, someone might inferre those same "shenanigans" on my part as in trying to 'artificially'' inflate views...

so, betimes, me check's views afore me ~+15 or so edittes, and sometimes there be hardly any (bout one mebbe) extra views or hits, whatever

well, that's me "obbo" today...

might have some advice laterer on , maybe a picke as well

and Goguenard a nr in that 4,40 Lingfield race, when at around 4/1 - 7/2 mark.. Just Over Land seems best price 7/4 - not sure, not gonna bother checking with books.... too too short, might win, but not for me...

..... like i said above: "shenanigans" me sees GOGUENARD (non runner in that same race) is also entered in an eminently more suitable (distance/trippe-wise) tomorrow in 4,55 Fontwell

trained by DJ Jeffreys -enough said - hashtag"crookininvertedcommas"

couldn't be uppe to themmme

in words of Phil Collins, "that's all"




gl

[Enoch Von Clausewitz]

paper had (when i check'sed y'day) me pick as double carpet job...

bout half that now with ye paperrre

might nae bodr with it yette,,,

prediction time: me predictes wen me goes to farmacy that the chap was "just getting it ready there now"

that's all

[Enoch Von Clausewitz]

tomorrow,

Wednesday, 14th Feb


Fontwell - Soft


3,50

a "fiver each way if yer feelin' brave" picke , or at least it would've been at 33s ! !!

recommendation's a deal shorter

anyhow,

in this race we see trainer M Hawker represented; and so small time I don't even know his first name.. very secretive these racinge folkes...
anyoldhoo, it's been a while since he's had a winner - almost a year; not that that's a bad thing as many trainers are on ye colde list a lot longer...

looking at his runners, he's only had two out in the laste ~3wks- with one of those beinge le picke,, as well as the selection, he's got another one entered as well somewhere else, so about two a week it seems he sendes oot

no angle on trainer form; horse is pretty old, and seems well out of form, but is a #big price.. seems to go on any old ground also, so not a concerne if it dries out or gets wetter... #not as big as 33s :- wouldn't count 14s or 16s as 'bigge price' relevant to his chances here,,,

pick:

MORTENS LEAM 16/1 WIN & EW

won in April '21 and wasn't seen until Dec. '22 when pulled up at Fontwell... nxt race saw him run again at Fontwell -almost a year later- where he finished pulled up... his next, and most recent, race saw him run at Chepstow ~2wks ago, and, in that race he finished fifth of thirteen.. wasn't beaten that < ~32lgths> too far, atc, in a race where six of the thirteen who went to post, didn't finisshhe

.... as well as that, and on flip side, it was a poor looking race ran in a slow time.. he wasn't fancied that day either...

anyhow, that last run represents a 'green shoote' and good enough for me...

goes well at the course as has two winns there,,

what else do i like/have looked at: eff all is the answer there! Mortens Leam is a holdup horse, so a normally ran race should suit..

enough for me.... think i'll investe five or six yoyos and do summat like €3 win & €1 ew.. think the juice (not that there's much: zero infacta,imo ) is in winne portion of bette... if i was brave, i'd go fiver each way, or 5win + 2.50 each way - smth like that, but i aint...

figure he's about 22s for the winne here, nd similarish for ew terms,.. i'll back him at shorter for shrapnelle, ats

Le Verdikto: MORTENS LEAM ~ €2 WIN , €1 EW

gl

[Enoch Von Clausewitz]

another one,

complete hit nd hope job:

2moro, Valentine's Day; Feb 14


Hereford - Good to soft-soft in places

2,00

ALDUNI'S GIRL 125/1 EW

from the shrewd (i'm calling her shrewd) Deborah Cole stable... had a look at all the raced ones here and am not gone on any,,, might be some of ye ~'unraced' ones what might've been running on flat, but if there were no form figures beside their names, then me left em offe...

first time going hurdling after having 2 (very poor) runs in bumpers; at least knows what a racecourse looks like, but main 'hopeful green shoote' is the fact that those NH Flat runs were on top of ground,, good to soft, tending towards soft, but forecaste says rain's due,,, so hoping the selection has liking for the ground on her firste go on likely soft going...


on another day, mebbe recommendation be €0.75ew , but folke are free to bette whate'er they likes.. free country, well supposedly,,, cannae say bad words about murderers what should never have been here in the first place, or that traitor Mehole might have ya locked up....

#AintNoForgettin


Verdikt: ALDUNI'S GIRL €2 EW


I see 'Buffy' has one here.. out of all the reste, the only one what picks intareste is Boughey's Absolute Queen ~10/1... usually/mainly a younge flatte trainer, but am thinking he might've had a NH runner out a while backe... flat trainer with, presumably, a few horses for jumpes.. watch this one to see how she fares.. some of her flat runs suggest she might have a squeak... dunno yette will i back this one..

that is all

Gl