Friday, 7th June
Goodwood - Good
6,05
LAWN RANGER ~ 14s... WIN=EW..... is former CD winna this 9yo and that were on Good going over CD, albeit way back in August 2019.... was rated in the 80s and 90s way back, around 2020/'21.... plummeting down weights and is now ratedde atte 63...
..... is outte of form in timesse recentte tho, but did win as recentte as August of last year, so will presume is still capable enoughhe....
..... goes well on tracks like Windsor and Goodwood over ~10fs at those tracks and on all kinds of going..... has had quite a few goes at Goodwood itselffe tho - with justte the one win.....
..... an Apprentice race this, and quite a few like to be v. close to pace, but Lawn Ranger looks only possible frontrunner; so perhaps t'otherre apprentices will be happy to take lead <if horse goes on early> off ye Attwater horse.... horse has just the one run this year... he were well supported on Mayday o'er ~11furlongges at Kempton on that comeback runne.... was backedde in from 20s to 8/1 but couldde only finish 5th of seven thatte day... horse were likely runningge over too stiff a trippe then, but ye money suggestes that he must be going well at home....
...... also interesting is the amt o' timesse he's been a non-runner: three times from out his last four declarations he aint participatedde in any race.... could be waiting for the rightte day !
paper has as 14/1 shotte.... about right for e/w go methinkkes, but perhaps for win purposes, he might could be a few points shorter, mebbe? think about between 9 & 11 to one is fair price for getting his noggin in frontte here....
have no strongge opinions on any of the restte o' t'fieldde.
6,35
go with ISLANOVA ~ 3/1 & WELLBORN ~ 6/1 here....
ISLANOVA followed up poor enough fto run at Newmarket last Sept on debut, by rattlingge crossbar on her reappearance -and secondde ever run- at Bath ~3wks ago, over a mile on good groundde.... Waa stayingge on well then; suspicion is tho this one
mightte want further than a mile....
She makes more appeal, to me at least, than ye 'paper' fav, D Flawless ~ 9/4.... this one's also having her thirdde ever start.... 1st run saw her come 2nd over 7fs at Kempton, and followedde that run up with a comprehensive, and prohibitively pricedde, win, when prevailing by 6Lgths at Chelmsford...... a decentte enough price if ya fancies, but on account of ye breeding i think this one mightte be better on softer groundde perhappes.... is having first go on turf here, so will gi'e Johnny G's filly swerve here....
....... D Flawless looks most obvious leader here, so might trade short in-runningge here..... might go cupla yoyo win, andde lay off potential profittes at short in-running prices: bewteen 1/2 & 1/10 mebbe, in hope
secondde pick here is Varian's WELLBORN.... Wellborn will be havingge her thirdde run, and first one this year after tacklingge Kempton's 7f AW trip on bothhe those first two runs.... going on the form of those runs -along with me breeding guess
> it would seem that a mile on turf should be eminently suitable for Rodja's 3yo daughter of Kingman.... unlikely to be far awayye at the end i wouldst venture
good birra study didde there
#SaveDraft @ 16:51 , Wed 05 June...... revisitte laterer; hopefully get another couple or three races luuked atte afore nightte is outte...
#Motivation
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
~22:00 hrs
anotherre luuk.....
Bath - Good to firm-good in places
tis raining here where i is in middle of ye country,,,,
could well be summat simla acrosse ye pond in @Blightyn where currently, outte o six meets, only one has trace o' soft in @going description; that one's Haydock where it's good to soft-good in places, atm at leasttte....
yep, am worriedde groundde couldde change, so will likely leave off Friday study.....
anyhow, Classified Stakes race caught us eye, and have three picks in one race
:
5.45 Bath
KATAR ~ 20/1 EW NAP...... strange choice for nap, as is zero from thirty runnes
Still, has ran a few decentte races over various iterations of Bath's 5f trippe/s..... has a good low draw, and has gone close enough with the few goes he's hadde at around and about the 5f trip, on good or better going..... decent claimer atop in Connor Planas.... hasn't even come close to even placingge, tho, in any of his seven races this year,,,,
...... will excuse most/all of those runs for reasons various: - soft groundde, AW runs, inexperiencedde jockeys beingge ye main ones.... None of those races (this year) were Classified jobs like this one, plus horse is only 4yo <potential to improve> ..... not w/o squeak.... don't know aboutte out and out soft going as has floppedde twice this year on ground describedde as soft or worse..... Good to soft shouldde be okayye... bit to take on trustte nonetheless.....
MINTANA ~ 6/1 WIN...... hadde a race at the course lastte July, and in a 'shorter' 5f race
came 4th then staying on at the endde underre Mollie Phillips..... aint got a great draw in box elevenne methinkes..... William Cox takes ride here..... he's only ridden this horse once before, and that saw Mintana finish 4th in that 19th Feb race at Wolves.... worth a go at prices...
WE'RE REUNITED ~ 8/1 WIN...... three of four of his wins have been at the course - with two of them Course & Distance ones,.... of those two CD wins, one were on good to firm going & t'otherre on Firm going..... he's also won twice in monthhe of June..... Good enuffe to merit inclusion here
leave off on a/c ye @GoingConcernes
22:39 05/06...... #SaveDraffte
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
17:54 todayye : 06/June
ok, time for ye pickes....
...... some are a lotte shorterre than what's in ye paperre
will leave some off.... We're Reunited & Mintana are 4/1 & 9/2 for ye 5,45 Bath: am no botheringge with themme..... at Goodwood Islanova is only 2s. price gives her boot an' alle.
.........................
VERDIKT: 6.05 Goodwood LAWN RANGER 18/1 €2 WIN + €3 EW
6.35 Goodwood WELLBORN 8/1 €4 EW
5.45 Bath KATAR 33/1 €5 EW NAP
thatte alle,
no joye at all at all in 5,45 Chelly... picks finishedde 6th and 7th; not even run for us money there
might fare bettererr in ye nxt
gl,