Horse Racing

[Enoch Von Clausewitz]

Tuesday, 23rd July 2024



Wolverhampton - Standard



7,40


nine runners due to go to post in this 6f Classified Stakes race.... more'n half t'fieldde are 3 or 4yo's , so aint had much racingge and are open to improvement....

....one of those is ~15/8 fav My Kind Of Girl... short enoughhe..... TC filly has two seconddes from outta her last three runnes, with both those at Brighton, and on ground with not much juice in it..... Has only thirteen runs to her name and a fair few of those have been on the AW, and she's hadde enough goes at Wolves w/o ever really threatening to win... difficult to make a case for her here... should be 5/2 or biggerre imo, so too short to back anyway...

Scott Dixon's Rebel Redemption ~6/1 is a two time CD winner, and looks most likely to go make running - drawn in box seven so thatte's hardly guaranteed.. 7lb claiming Apprentice Mikkel Mortenson gets mount for secondde time... finishedde sixth over CD about a yr ago when youngge jock got leg up for t'firstte time, and i don't think he'll be good or crafty enough for to steal this one from front- if he sends his mount on... mebbe back to lay in-running in hope

pen landed on DAMIA ~6/1.. this one has had many homes thus far for a 3yo... just eleven runs and will be having her first run for latestte trainer, R Ingram.... Rhiain -presumably trainer's daughter- takes mount here and her claim takes 3lbs off horse's back.. not exactly world's best pilot me reckons

........... anyroadde, pick has a good draw in box one here, is a good price, and the form of her fifth lto at Bath -over extendedde 5fs- and her 2nd at Lingfield, over 6f, the time before thatte, read well enough here.... will hope to see this one running from off the pace and gette ye splits when needed... looks to me to be a 4/1 or 9/2 shot this one.... ~3mths layoff and jockey booking are minor negatives




8,40


go with two picks here... a three year old Handicap o'er a trippe <9'5f> is usually of intarestte, esp as the quality is low-grade and cases can oft be made for ones at a price....

Cerulean Summer ~8/1, is worth a mention ; so there, she's mentioneddde lto run, which were at the course over ~1f shorter would give her claimes here.... She made up groundde that day late on, and a replication would gi'e her more'n a squeak.. upped in trippe tho, so there's thatte too.... inconclusive. topweight in handicap is oftenne a good barometer, and if ya can make case, then surely 8/1 is good price... i can't, so'll leave offe... if ya does fancy, then ya might consider this one to be a sixes shot, or shorter.... value picks lose too not putting anyone off... might include in a combi tricast or smth....


les pickes:



BITCOIN PROFIT ~20/1 EW... a winner at the course three runnes back over the extendedde mile; floppedde twice afterre that run at two different courses.... prior to that win over Wolves' 1m. 142yds trip, Maxwell Young's geldingge finishedde 2nd at the course over 7fs.... seems to like trips of 7f+ at this course... enough to like - esp at twenty's..... trainer don't train many winners, so a lil bit of a negative that.....

GARDEN VIEW ~ 10/1 EW.... the Usher filly ran a poor race lto over CD when comingge ninth of thirteen at endde of last month.... yet to win after nine runs, but not too hard to see her involvedde.... she ran close to pace last time, so probably that didn't help... is drawn widest of all here in box 13... might be a help that tho... her second lst run -over the extended mile- suggests she can go close from a hold-up ride, and she'll surely have to be held up comingge from 13 box.... seeing out trip a '?' tbs, but won't worry too much about that as 10s a fair price... not outstandingge value but worth an each way go... think 10s is fair going each way, and mebbe 7s is about her win price....


those'll do me






----------------------------------------------------------------------------

that^^^ were us draffte earlier doors..... 1 r 2 price differences; won't botherre changingge txt now was gonna bk Damia win only, but price is tasty so goingge each weighhe



anyroadde, le verdiktos :



7,40 Wolves DAMIA €3 EW 10/1

8.40 GARDEN VIEW 10/1 €2.50 EW , BITCOIN PROFIT €2.50 EW 20./1 & CERULEAN SUMMER €2 EW 14/1



already money for three of those, misssedde em slightly bigga prices tho Damia were 14s , Bitcoin Profit 25s & Cerulean Summer (temptingge at ye prices, so's i'll inkliood Cunha beast an' alle ) were 16s

mebbe three e/w dbles for shrapnelle an' alle


gl to me and all on hyahhe !!

#AmDue


thatte alle,

Gl

fekk all in 8,40 Cerulean Summer fared best, but only thirdde likely she'll win inside her nxt two races, but datte no good for todayye... t'otherre two pickes -nowhere


maybe tomorrow


thatte alle

[Enoch Von Clausewitz]

Ola & que pasa


am thinkin' mebbe FOOTWORK 11/1, has got goodenuffe-ishhe claims in tonight's 7,25 @ Haydock - if can get uncontestedde lead and holddes on thatte izz,,, will do usse and go €3 WIN on Charlie Johnston inmate


thatte alle ,


gL

[Enoch Von Clausewitz]

nowt there with @Footwork



2 4Todayye


KOY KOY 10/1, goes well at course.... will do us in 3,05 Nmkt.... LEVECHE 22/1, might have ye squeak uppedde in trippe on justte his fourthhe runne, in Ayr 8.45........ go €2 winne on Koy Koy and €2 e/w on Jardine horse


gl

[Enoch Von Clausewitz]

couple more:


BUA BOY 7.30 kilbeggan 6/1... went close lto over simla trip at Tipperaary... looks good price


TILSWORTH ONLY TA 7.52 Lingfield 17/2 ... CD winner from lto, and in a v good time... goodenuffe pour moi..


go WIN on both ye above





thatte alle,

Gl

[Enoch Von Clausewitz]

nowt todayye


tomorrow, Sunday 11th August



Downpatrick - Good



2,18



SHE CAN DO IT 10/3


looks between top three in betting here..... tomorrow will see Liam Lennon filly her have her fifth ever run and also her fifth run inside of ~14wks.... hope she aint too tiredde was heldde up in her firstte three runs - when contesting Bumpers... ran closer to pace lto on hurdles' bow, and come 2nd thatte day over course and distance.... also has a CD secondde from run previous, in a NH Flat race... has strongge 'shouldde be there or thereabouttes' claims... bout a 11/4 shotte methinkkes, on usse tissue do me anyhowwe !


pick looks likely to be close to the pace here; in race where one of Born In Purple 7/4 & Sharp Object 6/4, are/look most likely to lead/make runningge... Pepperpots 20/1, is anotherre previousse CD Bumper winner what'll be havingge her first run over ye smaller obstacles (plenty of, albeitte twixt poor and rubbish, experience of jumping from PtP sphere), and is another possible leader... anyway, will hope the two shorties tekk each otherre on here with, hopefully, the pick following closely behind

market principals are both 5yos , and thusly will have to concede a deal of weight to those getting 4yo's weight allowance, so thatte might also help swing it in favour of the selection

go €3 WIN on She Can Do It

thatte alle,

Gl

[Enoch Von Clausewitz]

^^^^

She didn't do it ......





onwarddes; me'll venture anudda pick


tomorrow-Friday, 16th August, 2024



Wolverhampton - Standard



4,45



looking for one at ye price usse penne landedde on Mrs Barclay's RUBELLITE 22/1..... 4yo has the one win from 15 runs, but has only tackledde 10f and above trippes, twice..... both those on the AW.... two runs back Rubellite come thirdde over C&D; and two runs previous to thatte one saw the daughter of Iffraaj come fourth over 10fs, also on the AW, at Newcastle, and over 10fs... was stayingge on thatte day, although it were only a Classified Stakes race....

might not win, but has decentte enough place claims at the prices.... think she could be closer to the 14s the 'paper' has/had her at than the ~22/1 (might be 25s in places) what's readiy available with the layazz...

anyhoo, me verdikto is: RUBELLITE €2 WIN + €3 EW


thatte's alle



gL

[Enoch Von Clausewitz]

^^^^
Rubellite lastte of ten

enuffe for todayye

[Enoch Von Clausewitz]

summat for wkendde


Friday, 30th August, 2024



Ffos Las - Heavy


1,55


Jim Boyle's HODLER ~5/1, is nae absinthhe ye #squeakke here... down in grade and will be runningge on soft underfoot conditions for t'irstte time in a longge while... this come from off the pace <at leastte in timesse recent - has won before from close to pace> type has been mainly runningge over 7fs on top of ye groundde, and in Cl4s, since changingge ownershippe <same trainer> at backendde o' lastte year... Paper fav Fleurir ~2/1, looks most likely... imagine this 4yo filly will make or try make alle in thisse... looks mostte likely, but aint never ran over 7f on turf, and altho a smidge unlucky two runs back at Bath on a soft surface; thatte race were over a mile.... jury's out; if ya fancies the Varian filly here, thenne price predictedde looks fair.... absence shouldn't be a major concernne neitherre....

..... still, thisse one has enough questions, imo, for a short one... will swerve...


..... back to the pickke... altho only 7th lto, Hodler wasn't beat alle that farre.... finishedde a lil over 3lgths behindde Tanmawwy thatte daye.... softer groundde on Friday shouldde help Hodler go closer.... aboutte a 3/1 shotte i'd rate me pick here, atc....


.....trainer has sent two to the course here since 2010, and JB has had one winner from outta those runners; not much far as gaddaringge 'stats' goethhe, but one outta two aint mediocre....

if groundde improves in meantime then me'll reconsidda, but am likingge pickke both at ye prices and on de @heavy goingge...


verdikt: HODLER €6 WIN NaP ... go less coinne if horse is shorter



thatte alle,


gL

[Enoch Von Clausewitz]

nowt with @theprohibitivelypricedde@Hodler


#rubbish


thoughts pour la morrow



Saturday, 31st August, 2024



Chelmsford - Standard




6,10


Pink Diesel ~6/4, has a poor draw here, looks eminently opposable steppingge down a F in trip fromme firstte run... was held up on firstte run when comingge 3rd of eight at Newmarkette over 7furlonggs... a few of these like to get on with it, so be hard i reckons for thisse one to get a good early possy should jock send the Boughey filly on.... not for me; if sameish price, might go 2 , 3 , & 4 place lays/....



SAHARA DANCER ~2/1... won well at Chepstow on her firstte run - when racing wide and close to pace.. drawn in box six here shouldn't present too many difficulties me hopes... might be a 7/4 or 15/8 shotte thisse one, so price okay....



HEAVEN KNOWS ~6/1.... three runs thus far.... wasn't beaten too far in last two runs, both at Windsor - those were over 6f and on top of the groundde... not screaming outte as likely winner and only a fairish price, butte looks capable of going close here.




7,40

AMONGST THE STARS ~5/1... was steppedde up significantly in trip, lto, on first handicap run.... drifted from 7/2 to 5/1 thatte day and finishedde 4th of seven over Yarmouth's extended 11 furlongges.... was somewhat of an improvement on her first three runs -which were all over a mile, and all on good groundde.... hardly one for maximum faith, but might fare better on her second run at a mid-distance trip....

*going on 'paper' prices.... races not really pricedde up yet; think this one might be about a 2/1 shotte with one or two books. zero interest at them oddes....




8,10


FREGOLA ~ 8/1. very poor form figures.... lastte run at Kempton was only moderate.. broke slowly that day when sent off massive price... miade a small amountte of ground late on then... that was over six furlongs.... hoping can go well here uppedde a furlongge in trip...




of ye four picks, Sahara Dancer in the 6,10 is only one with out and out winningge claimes.... other two races look very competitive - owt could win em




.... think me'll go ~€3 WIN on each of the four picks; and p'happes do a cupla e/w trebles/patents, smth like dat, also, 4shrapnelle...


thatte alle,


bye



g'lucke

[Enoch Von Clausewitz]

....... andde one over ye obstacles....



Newton Abbot - Good



3,20


BENSINI 8/1..... yet to win a chase race from six runs.... hadn't racedde over less than 2.5m over fences until latestte run; which saw him come fifth then when tacklingge ye 2m 110yds trippe at Worcester on Wednesday week lastte... managedde to lead at three outte which would, imo, bode welle for one what might've been previously thought to wantte further..... altho didn't win, that run suggests that a cannier ride might see him fare well here on a fast track what -like Worcester, seems to suit those close to pace....

... horse was supportedde (altho he usually does see coinne ) then also.... plus gets added benefitte of first time application of tonguestrappe and ye blnkers too..

Tonto Foley 3/1, is very consistent and would have to have solidde 'go close' claimes,,,


Skelton horse is the 5/4 fav Beat Box... won lto on his first ever run for this stable and was expectedde to do so an' alle as openedde up that day @ ~6/4... anyhowwe, was heldde up thenne.,, seems usual runninge style... will hope for simla later todayye, and that Beat Box is too far back to mountte any kindde of winningge challenge....

dinna what price i'd have him at, but at a guesse me reckon ye pick will go 11/2 or shorterre at some stage todayye looks fair price- for winne at leastte... altho Bensini be each way price no e/w intarestte here... anyroadde, just six due to line uppe so only the two place spottes available for this ~2m Cl5 Visit attheraces.com Handicap Chase


overall ye pick is interestingge enough to moi, and BENSINI €5 WIN will do me here ..



thatte alle,



gl

[Enoch Von Clausewitz]

^^^^^

3,20 Newton Abbot


TONTO FOLEY has driftedde all the way oot tae fifteen to two for the 3,20 N Abbot... dinna what's caused ye drift.... For to come in first two here, he's ~85/40 with the layazz...

.... told usself when he were abaht evs last night for tae fill one o' themme two spottes that me'd have a couple yoyo on that outcome if he were 6/4 or bigger...

.... well, he is now...


go with €3 TONTO FOLEY 2/1 @ 2-Place bettingge

[Enoch Von Clausewitz]

....... andde one over ye obstacles....



Newton Abbot - Good



3,20


BENSINI 8/1..... yet to win a chase race from six runs.... hadn't racedde over less than 2.5m over fences until latestte run; which saw him come fifth then when tacklingge ye 2m 110yds trippe at Worcester on Wednesday week lastte... managedde to lead at three outte which would, imo, bode welle for one what might've been previously thought to wantte further..... altho didn't win, that run suggests that a cannier ride might see him fare well here on a fast track what -like Worcester, seems to suit those close to pace....

... horse was supportedde (altho he usually does see coinne ) then also.... plus gets added benefitte of first time application of tonguestrappe and ye blnkers too..

Tonto Foley 3/1, is very consistent and would have to have solidde 'go close' claimes,,,


Skelton horse is the 5/4 fav Beat Box... won lto on his first ever run for this stable and was expectedde to do so an' alle as openedde up that day @ ~6/4... anyhowwe, was heldde up thenne.,, seems usual runninge style... will hope for simla later todayye, and that Beat Box is too far back to mountte any kindde of winningge challenge....

dinna what price i'd have him at, but at a guesse me reckon ye pick will go 11/2 or shorterre at some stage todayye looks fair price- for winne at leastte... altho Bensini be each way price no e/w intarestte here... anyroadde, just six due to line uppe so only the two place spottes available for this ~2m Cl5 Visit attheraces.com Handicap Chase


overall ye pick is interestingge enough to moi, and BENSINI €5 WIN will do me here ..



thatte alle,



gl

no good Bensini. 3rd !1 ffs

^^^^^

3,20 Newton Abbot


TONTO FOLEY has driftedde all the way oot tae fifteen to two for the 3,20 N Abbot... dinna what's caused ye drift.... For to come in first two here, he's ~85/40 with the layazz...

.... told usself when he were abaht evs last night for tae fill one o' themme two spottes that me'd have a couple yoyo on that outcome if he were 6/4 or bigger...

.... well, he is now...


go with €3 TONTO FOLEY 2/1 @ 2-Place bettingge

not even in top four Tonto Foley


nowt there, mebbe i'll get one ltr at Chelly ....


thatte alle,

[Enoch Von Clausewitz]

nowtte at chelly


#Rubbish&Humbugge!!



#NewDrawingBoardde



thatte allle ,

[Enoch Von Clausewitz]

Monday, 2nd Sept, 2024




a few what can go well, hopefully




Roscommon: Soft - Heavy


4,10 MAJESTIC WAVE (W) ~7/2 , QUARRY STONE ~33/1

6.,15 ROSSO (W) ~2/1

7,15 LATIN ~20/1




Windsor - Good-good to firm in places


7,30 PAPA DON'T PREACH (W) ~6/1




Chepstow - Good to firm


2,05 KENSTONE ~12/1

2,35 BRIGHT ERA ~16/1




Brighton - Good to firm


1,50 WATCH BLUE POINT (W) ~11/2

2,20 LETSBEATSEPSIS (NAP) ~ 5/1 , NAVARRE SPECIAL ~12/1

2,50 SIR OLIVER ~12/1 , MARSH BENHAM (W) ~9/2 , AMATHUS ~8/1



those'll do me...


no writeuppe, fekkit this time aroundde ones with ye 'W' beside em, i likely go win only on those; restte i'll mainly be goingge each way on,,,,, might perm them all in e/w doubles for shrapnelle, too... paper probable prices all look fine anyhoo


thatte alle ,

[Enoch Von Clausewitz]

^^^^^
in 6,15 Rosc. Rosso openedde up 6/4... bit skimpy - no bette....

Letsbeatsepsis, Bri 2,20, about a 3/1 - 10/3 poke with layerz.... still worth a go.. downgrade thatte one to ye 'NB' ,,,, worth a go at 9/4 or bigga, imo....

[Enoch Von Clausewitz]

^^^^^

nowtte to write home aboutte there....






go again.....



Thursday, 5th Sept, 2024







Clonmel - Good


4,10

mostte of these fillies have had racing, and a few have been stayingge on towarddes endde of races over 1m... nowtte conclusive insofar as whatte canne go well here, in a race what's ran ova ~9.5f.....

..... go with one at a biggish price. INA MINA ~10/1, has hadde four races in totalle: 2 at home, and two when trainedde abroadde across ye pondde... 1st run in Irelandde -2 runs back- saw her come third in a Leopardstown maiden over 9furlongges.... race was ran in a fastte enough time, and the filly, who sportedde ye hood for the firstte time and saw some coin also, wasn't beaten far into thirdde position.... a replication of thatte run, along with the extra ~1/2F or so might see her run a decentte race..

... she floppedde on her latest go when relatively unsupportedde over Cork's slightly extendedde 10F trip...

hoping this is her optimum trippe... might be a 7/1 shotte for win purposes, and ye paper probable of 10s is probably fair for going each way...





Wolverhampton - Standard



6.55

Glory Call ~6/4 paper fav, is only one whatte looks to have outrightte claims here.. Not unopposable methinkkes.... drawnne widestte of all in box nine unlikely to aide cause....


MUTABAAHY ~12/1, will do usse here... is 9yo too, not getn any youngga... has won -altho quite a while back- twice overre 6Fs but mostte his wins have come over minimum and most those 5f wins have been at the course...

.... out of form tho. hopingge he can break wellish/gette the rail, and be full of runningge come ye ~two pole and avoid ye ones 'going backwards' .... and perhappes winne... paper price prolly accurate representation of his chances, and i'll go e/w on this Antony Brittain horse.


8,30


CERULEAN SUMMER ~9/2... on accountte me sayethhe in post #651 thatte she'd win inside of her nxt two racesse; well she lostte the firstte of those, so there .... drawn in boxxe numero uno is thisse hold-up performingge 10 runne maidenne.. hoping she be heldde up, andde startte to make some groundde up around ~3F outte.... win only here....

....will likely have quite a few horses in front of her (hope notte!! but that's her runningge style) late on, and tho it were a turf track race and over ~1/2 longer trippe, she didde manage to hitte ye frontte lto at Leicester at 'one pole' , afore ultimately finishingge thirdde... lightly racedde and ought to be openne to improvementte methinkkes... not much green shooterage v a v her sire Eqtidaar, as most o' his seem to tackle trippes of five and six furlongges... never heard of dam sire Jazil neither, so'll justte forgeddaboutte owtte provenance relatedde here..


... guessingge this one to aboutte a 4 to one shotte,,, no interestte at less than 7/2...





Haydock - Good to soft-soft in places



2,10


a Classs5 amateur race this over 1m. 3f. 140yds... hard to rule any in, and simiarly hardde to rule ahnyy ootte anyhow, some of deses were deesent in their day- a few wins betwixt em from ratings of mid 80s up to 90s.... highest ratedde allowedde to take part is, i presume, 70; so a lotte of scope on thatte score....


pen landed on SAMEEM ~11/2 WIN... three of his seven career wins have been at trips between 1.25 & 1.5m's and on groundde whatte had 'soft' in going description... also, today's jockey Mrs Emily Roberts was on board for two of those - to go along with another win she hadde on the horse, when goingge was good to firmme...


... horse is zero fromme five at course whichhe aintte good.... Sameem has led early in a significant amount of his races, altho not so much in recentte times...... in four of his five Haydock races, he's led in four, which is a good deal more prolific than in races he'd ran at other courses..

..... not much in line of 'gree shoots' far as recent form goes, as horse has run poorly in lastte two races... excuses can be made tho... those were ran on good, or better, groundde... last time Sameem ran on ground with 'soft' in description was in June - when he won at Ripon....


anyway, will hope jockey Emily takes lead here.... of the eight jockeys in this, only three have ridden at ye course and only two of those have hadde a winner.... Mrs Roberts is one of the other five whatte haven't had a ride here before, so perhaps Emily will holdde her beast up and follow someone what has

figure the pick to be about a 9/2 shot for win only here, and mebbe 6/1 for each way purposes... not botheringge with e/w me in thisse anyhoo.. reckon owt can nearly win andde also just as easily come lastte, possiblee


me new drawingge boardde aint didde much yette ... still early dayze



those four'll do me... mebbe do an e/w lucky 15 as well for pennethhe



~11:30pm Tue, 3rd Sept... SD & revisitte tomorrow


#SD





-------------------------------------------------------


Wednesday, 01:32am ......... had kuuk at anudda at Wolves....



9,00



pen landedde on two- both dahne at bottom of ye handicappe for this 1m. 142yds. 3-y-o Class5 handicap


none of the fieldde look up to much and half the field have changed either yards or o=ownershippe, or both, since beginningge racingge...

anyhoo, les pickes:


DREAM SELECTION ~16/1. one win fromme ten runs; that were over extended 9f trippe here, so goes well at course.... also has a secondde from CD from run previous... likes to be up with the pace and tho drawwne widestte o' alle in box numero 10 here, not inconceivable ths one could gette to front from that berthhe and gette leadde fromme off a lightish wait here..... might hold on for a place if so, mebbe winne evenne !


HEAVENLY FIRE ~11/2. this is one of the five what've changedde yards since beginning racing career... was supported lto when comingge third at the course over 7fs, from holduppe ride... sportedde ye f/t hood as well... last yard didn't get much of a choone outta dis daughter of Harry Angel so i'll ignore her firstte six runnes, formwise, and me'll base me assessmentte of her claimes on her lastte three runs... inconclusive as regarddes whetherre she'll be able to see out thisse north of eight furlongges trip, but her lastte two runnes would give her 'go close'claims... going win only on thisse one; reckon 5/1 fair price for winne - evenne 4/1 be not too badde.. leavingge each weigh off but would have that pricedde at sevens, on us tissue

narys the strongge fancy amongst ye six selections . contentte enough with em ats, at ye prices at leastte....

~02:am leave study offe.. i'll watch ue Men's US Open QF twixt Tiafoe andde Dimitrov nigh and revisitte laterer





#SD

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


4.00pm, 4th Sept


see ye goingge @ Haydock has improvedde to 'Good to soft' .... don't make much diff as still v tricky thatte race... ye 'paper' has @Sameem still @ 11/2; altho that's in ye racecardde 'longge listte' ----->> the whole racecardde on one page.... On its own andde just clickingge onto the individual race, me sees @Sameem is quotedde at 7s there... dinna have an a/c but methinkkkes @365 have it pricedde uppe, and lo and beholdde they also have ye pickke at 7s..

..... conclusion:- methinkkes ye Bette 365 & @Irishracingge must have access to same tissue

regardless, still likely do Sameem win only


#SD
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------



time is close to now.... Mutabaahy fair goode price, but Dream Selection stands outte methinkkes....


anyhoo, les pickes + prices


happy enough with lea pickes.... think me'll go €2 on Win picks, and also €2 on ye each way ones...


INA MINA 9/1 EW 4.10 Clonmel

SAMEEM 10/1 WIN 2,10 Haydock

MUTABAAHY 20/1 EW 6,55 Wolves

CERULEAN SUMMER 4/1 WIN 8,30 Wolves

DREAM SELECTION 25/1 EW , HEAVENLY FIRE 8/1 WIN 9,00 Wolves


thatte alle

gL

[Enoch Von Clausewitz]

all rubbishhe


anyhow, try ye differentte tackke for race upcummingge


Tue 10th Sept



Leicester - Good to soft-good in places



try andde mekk some decentte coineragge from, hopefully , ye volatile in-runningge market fluctuationnes in thirdde todayye on ye East Midlands track's cahrdde .. tis idea anyhoo.




3,10

a Class 4 2-y-o Fillies' Novice Stakes race over 7F


goingge on herre onlee run to date, Orchid 5/2, might hit frontte/be travellingge very welle atte a furlongge or so out - just like whatte she didde when commigge 2nd over the 7f trippe on AW at Kempton lastte month; andde, possiblee, endde up loosingge Maybe notte a badde price at all if ya fanciesse outright tho,,,, could be a 6/4 shotte maybe, like whatte paper predicktedde she'd be cupla dayze ago....

fav, Formal 8/13, might be a piece off ye premises early doors - if runningge like she didde when winningge her maiden fto at Newbury in July,.. looks very shortte price tho... looks slightly more likely of the two markitte keaderrzz on form tho, ats; but possibly also be worryingge times in store for short-odds backerres nonetheless, methinkkes.... mebbe go try bakke Formal @ ye bigge oddes in runningge, perhappes? if wantingge to back at ye respecktabill sorta price -insteadde o current available skinny oddes on ones, thatte is me'll putte uppe a bigger one <double-figured price .... in hope andde optimizzimme ....> before race and hope me's rightte ....


........... trainerrre of Formal, Stoutey, hasse won thisse in three out ye lastte sevenne renewals, so perhappes that's why ye fav is so skimpee??? even if hadde strongge fancy for Formal, couldn't be backing at them rubbish oddes,,,, on positive note, rain forecastte over at Blighty- which shouldde betterre helppe daughter of Dubawi gette the trippe:- whatte couldde be a mite of a sharperrer one than whatte Newbury's was/is......


Maybe Not 12/1 and, possibly, A Haynes' grey, Unforgetable Belle 50/1, kook most obviousse pace-anglesse here.... hope they make a good testte of it, so's to gi'e usse ye squeakke with us 'opefulle in-run biddes

Tom Ward's havingge a fine time of itte recentlee - with five winnes from his lastte eighteen runners, not too shabby... his newcomer Bear Facts 33/1, might see some supportte on accountte of that... Alzo, Spencer, who don't botherre too much about volume of rides he receives nowadays, or so it would seem leastways, takes whatte appears to be his only upcoming mountte in near future, on the Sangster trainedde newcomer Starlit Spice 7/1... anyhoo, Sea The Stars fillee looks anudderre whatte could upsette ye odds-on-jolly appletartte here... Starlit Spice's trainer Ollie's last three wins -in lst three weekes andde from outta eighteen stable runners- have alle come fromme maidens, including a first-time-out one lastte monthhe at Goodwood.....

.... Starlit Spice was due to runne in a similar race, albeitte ove ~1f furda and on softa going, but financially more valuable Novice race at Ascot a fewwe days ago but, for some reasonne was a non-runner thenne... dinna whatte to make of thatte, but it addes a bit to mystery heh heh heh....


ahnnyhoo, looks intaeresttingge race & them's me thoughts on itte.


atb et Gl

[Enoch Von Clausewitz]

^^





Nada dere !!


fekkitte, Orchiddel broke ~10lgths lastte, ffs


ne'er hadde any chance with her goiingge any short in-runningge price


jolly, Formal, were in t'vanne, hitte front a ways oot, wins easily... slowwe enough time for race andde alle previous race were also a 2yo race: a Cl6 Nursery and also overre ye sevenneF's.... +2secs quickerre thatte race were ranne in mebbe ye groundde were deterioratingge, butte ye going was, apparently, goingge on ye openingge racingge showwe... soft/gd to soft, and thatte was 'known' before 2,0'c, supposedly


/Rantte


#Sickenedde


enuffe




getn kronic on here pickerage wise....



anyroadde,



thatte alle

[Enoch Von Clausewitz]

howdy !


thoughts on one for today.....





Sat, 14th Sept





Musselburgh - Good



5,50



a 1m. 4f. 104yds Cl6 Flat Handicap....

hope at least one me two fanciesse can go close ere

anhyhoo, thoughts on feldde:



Molten Sea ~2/1,, firstte run in hcap, so there's thatte... Bit hard to fancy her on three runs to date ats. dunno if i'd have this one as fav but smth has to be Sire is Too Darn Hot and don't think he's had many winners at 12fs -or therebouttes- , at least notte in last few weeks. i dinna, am guessing won't finishhe in toppe two later on,,,,

Dingwall ~9/2. very hitte and miss... does have the one win from outte eight runs to date,,,, that was at Ayr over 10Fs three runs back on good goingge,,,, Saw support that day when wearing ye f/t hood... was going away at the end thenne suggestingge thatte stayingge an extra cupla furlongges may not be outta ye questionne,,, four to one looks fair price, so will give thisse one another chance and go €3 WIN on Jardine horse

Mon Etoile ~5/1... zero from fourteen runs don't inspire much confidence will still do me as secondde pic tho the grey's lastte six runs all saw her compete in ten furlong races (and all on good ground) ...... Her first eight races were mainly over eight and nine furlongges, both on the AW ond on ye @turfe,,,, 5/1 looks no more than fair, but at least it aintte a very short one so will go €3 WIN here an' alle....

..... if this race was also over 10Fs then no intarestte, but it'll be her first time at this mile and a halffe trip and her second last run (ot Lingfield) would give her strongge claims for makingge frame here... she wasn't really makingge up much groundde in the endde -when comingge an okayishhe third- , but didde manage to put 4.5Lgths daylight between herself and the fourth-placed one: the jointte fav, there.. Plusse, ye race was ran in fastte time so a green shoot,,,, hadde on the f/t visor thatte day as well, so mebbe a bittuva negative thatte as didn't manage to gette job done,, followed thatte run up with a similarishhe 'endde of race' run, as was closer to pace on thatte occasion (Brighton, on lto runne), butte did appear to be makingge some moderate inroaddes at ye endde... green shoots enough i suppose,, can't make strongge win cases for many others, so more o' a defaultte pick


Lady Phoebe ~10/3... her secondde lastte run was at Hamilton and she come secondde then in race over 12Fs,,,, that day she trackedde the leaders and wouldde have massive claims here at ye price/s if race was runne on soft going, but it aint.... supposedly green shoots for beingge againstte her here is factte she were sentte off very well supported 5/4 fav andde floppedde when finishingge 8th of 14 runners at Catterock lto... droppingge down in trip from thenne shouldde suit tho,,, only eight runs to date and wears f/t cheekpieces,,,, don't know whatte price i'd ha'e her atte but be a deal bigger than ''BB'' unlesss,,,, unless ye goingge goes soft; thenne mebbe she'd be usse ohmlee picjke hehe


Stretch ~7/1..... makes no appeal to me basedde on her firstte five runs so far,,,, thinkke i'd have her as a 25 to one shotte basedde on her form shownne to date anyhoo, i aintte seein' it... drawwwe ye line thru Connor Beasley mountte...


Liberty Looming ~15/2. eight runs to date, but only be his secondde since leaving Bolger yardde in Eire,,, alle in alle, wouldde rate his claimes simila to those of @Stretch, ie very poor the horse representtes same stable as Lady Phoebe withhe bothhe trained by Adam Nicol.. can't see it meselffe,,,


Strike Rate ~25/1..... looks like shouldde be a 25/1 shotte,,,,, gotte nowtte good to say aboutte thisse one at all will be havingge ninth differentte jock aboardde on just his eleventhhe run: looks mostte likely to finishhe lastte


Scarbados ~25/1... firstte run for Ewan Whillans... didde fekk all in eight runnes for previousse trainerre Ivan Furtado.. Still an' all, Scarbados is ownedde by '6 Bit Racing' , andde the lastte winner (Bergentown, way backke in June of last yr) they hadde was one whatte was havingge firstte run for new stable... unlike Bergentown, Scarbados was also ownedde by those connections whenne in previousse <Furtado's> yardde.... a CT this one'd be if it were a pick, but she aintte



........ thinkke i'll wait til later for to see what ground's like, but atm am liking each of DINGWALL ~9/2 & MON ETOILE ~5/1, for winnerage purposes - if at simla or biggerre price laterer..... If going goes soft or worser, then me'd be intaresttedde in @Lady Phoebe ~10/3, or mebbe evenne @Strike Rate ~25/1, who's a bigge price and can't be fully ruledde out if groundde went heavy or summatte... can't be really ruledde in neitherre tbf,,


a few of these can potentially lead here, but no out and out pace angle... seems fair enough track bias, so winner could perhaps come from holduppe ride from @Dingwall p'happes???. Mullen, who rode horse for all his eight runs to date, is at Chester today for three mounts (includingge one whatte is in same yardde/ownershippe as Dingwall, so if Paddy The Squire goes well for Jpnes and Jardine in Chester 4,05, then Dingwall might see some coin) , so 5lbs claimingge jock Mohammed Tabti gets mountte here... might make the difference. Mebbe @Paddy, who's only coltte in that @Roodee race, canne go well andde thinkke me'll go a fiver on him at an appealingge looking 5 to one




thatte alle,



gl

[Enoch Von Clausewitz]

rubbish todayye




thatte is alle i have to say aboutte thatte ,







anyroad, back on bike





Sun, 15th Sep, 2024

had me a study o' firstte race me saw what figuredde meritedde ye look:



Bath - Good-good to soft in places


2,32



two picks 'ere

Stan Moore wonne thisse last year; has three in this, one of which finddes herselffe in ye ignominious position of being an Eh Vay Say picjke


What'v'r, 'll look at jolly firstte... Osborne's Bracklesham Bay ~11/8, showedde markedde improovementte lto, and on fourth startte when he were a relatively decisive winnerre over a mile on good goingge at Chepstow; was a v welle supportedde 2nd fav thatte daye an' alle ....

.....paper had BB downne as an 11/4 shotte for this, which looks marginally generous <think about 85/40 shotte this one> .... altho he wonne o'er a mile on good goingge (similar trip/ground tomorrow - at leastte accordingge to 'going' description,,,,,, ) lto at Chepstow, that's a much sharper trippe than whatte ye Bath 1m race is... flip side is, horse is obviously on improve......



.... how race will panne outte early; looks like a lotte of these like to go close to pacesetters with, perhaps, Mount Of Gold ~14/1, the possible early leader here.



les pickes:


BOWNDER NB ~3/1 WIN .. My idea of the fav here,,,, came secondde to Bracklesham Bay lto at Chepstow... was lookingge for room aboutte 3fs out, and but for thatte might've finishedde closer than a length secondde, or better mebbe,,,,

..... it's race before thatte run what looks interestingge here: Bounder wonne <was held up out back thenne aswelle> easily at Salisbury over a mile on good to firm going at the endde of lastte monthhe... Salisbury mile trippe is a stiffer testte than Chepstow's , so Bounder has to be fanciedde on ye 'goes well over a stiff/ishhe mile on good groundde' stakes,,,, dunno what goingge will be like, but if it's good or better than good, thenne he'd surely be worth a 3-place go if price were favourable, say 4/5 or bigger,,,, think weather f/castte has it as being breezy 'Bath-side' tomorrow - with not a whole lotta pecipitationne seemingly expectedde,,,, will hope they've gotten it rightte

.... not bodderingge with short-odds place bettes here, but hardde to see Portman geldingge be far away in thisse 1m. Cl6 2-y-o Nursery Hcap... my rubbishhe opinion says he's a ~15/8 shotte what's worth ye go at 9/4 or biggerre




BRIGHT ERA ~16/1 €1 WIN + €2 EW..... me Stan Moore pickke... his Keep Singing ~3/1, is capable of going close here... not withoutte ye ??s though that one.... was disqualifiedde lto into secondde when dead-heatingge over Wolves' extendedde 9f trippe... Previousse to thatte, Keep Singing came thirdde ova Chepstow's 1m trippe- when slow away and keen-going thereafter..... definitely on the fence withhe thisse one,,,, call thisse one a 4 to 1 shotte, so's i don't have to bacjke that Wolves race was only a five runner affair..... did see not insignificantte support the last twice though however, but not one for maximum faith and don't appeal at pricesse nohowwe could be wrong, but am swervingge,,,,

..... anyhowwe, @BRIGHT ERA saw some support lto at Chepstow over 7fs, so perhappes smth was expectedde,,,, A holduppe ride saw Bright Era come thirdde that day.... uppedde a furlongge in trippe tomorrow, and at a stiffer track, there be no guarantees with this one. Still, can't be ruledde outte,,, thinkke the trainer J S Moore has a stake in alle three of his charges, so he mightn't care so longge as one of them win - if at all possible callingge this one a 9/1 shotte going win, and mebbe a 12/14 to one poke for each way go....

.... do me anyhow...



thatte alle.


gL

[Enoch Von Clausewitz]

^^^^

crossbar job there withhe shortestte o' ye two pickes


anyroadde, variance is due might not be tomorrow, but will hope




Wednesday, 18th Sept, 2024



Yarmouth - Good



were good to soft y'day, ye goingge - must be drying out.... Wther forecastte sez pretty much dry tomorrow, so likely be good going or mebbe some 'firm' in ye description perhappes,,,,





2,30




a Cl4 Fillies' Novice for 2-y-o's, over 6f. 3yds.




Cressida Wilkes ~2/1.... is marginal early provisional fav here, and is only one with ye h'cappe ratingge: '86' - not too badde, i reckonnes, tho don't pay much nevermindde to ratings, generally.. going againstte this one.. four runs to date; been supported in lastte three.. come 2nd , 5th , thirdde & fourth in them runs.. not too shabby, and beaten less thanne eight lgths in toto... sets the standard.. on lastte two runs horse has ranne in Cl2 & Cl1 Stakes racessse... thatte don't impress me much anyhowwe, Cressida Wilkes is one of several with claimes, but notte for me




Hold A Dream ~5/2... Two runs to date, with both on good to firm going... first of those saw her come second over 5f at Sandown... winner since frankedde form when @Pearl Of Wisdom followed that win up over 5f at Chepstow, on good going and also over ye minimumme... not reading much into Hold A Dream's secondde placingge in that Sandown race as time weren't great, and she only finishedde a neck in rontte of the third horse home...

... chasedde leaderes that day,,, nto, and most recentte, run saw a slight change of tactics whenne she triedde make alle uppedde a furlongge at Newbury... was beaten a nose thenne.. hhmm, still ratha be againstte.... that Newbury 6fs is a deal stiffer than the same trippe ay Yarmouth.. Not exactte science, but Yarmouth's 6f races are normally won in ~1m 11secs or theybouttes, whereas Newbury's is closer to 1m 13secs... like the favourite, cannae be ruledde outte, but a try make all bidde couldde see her come unstuckke.. She may notte be sentte on tomorrow, but one suspecttes she will... givingge thisse one ye #swerve an' alle...


######[b]MAISSARA [/b]~7/1 WIN.... Varian horse gettes nodde here...... yette anotherre what's ran at Newbury over 6f's.... came 4th there on her only runne to date.... oprnedde up ~11/4 early doors, so layaz must've expectedde a bold bidde on debut, but endedde up driftingge all the way out to sevens...


..... she ran a bit keen thatte day from close to pace; was cruisingge ~2F out, but couldn't landde a blowwe thenne... countingge on her settlingge better tomorrow, andde improvingge from that firstte run... is by Frankel, so possible thisse one needs a longer trippe to be seen to best effect... will likely have to be close to pace here given her pedigree, imo, for to have figure in thisse....

..... hope she will.. no e/w here, but she has fair claims in my book and looks a 5 to 1 shotte... will go €5 WIN on Varian horse.



Dash Of Azure ~8/1... interestinngge at pprices.... come 2nd on debut over seven at Newmarket on her firstte runne.. was well beaten by the 1/4 fav - who gotte to frontte inside final 2furlongs... Dash Of Azure would've been second then at 'one pole' , butte thatte aint saying much
is interestingge, and might go off shorter, but not enough to go on to rate ye bette...


###### thinkke a fewwe books have it pricedde up nighhe.... Looks like us pick Maissara is 9/2 poke, at leastte with BF... shorter price = less coin... €2 win methinkkes


#HumbugtoProbableSP



thatte alle i gotte





Gl

[Enoch Von Clausewitz]

hhmm, notte too impressedde with us most recentte post... should've putte up an hr earlierre, and not putte up wrongke pricessse then


anyhowwe, thinkingge the fav in that race, Hold A Dream will make runningge, and thatte us picke Maissara will be following closely behindde, be cruisingge a F out, and then mebbe



anotherre one forre tomorrow - with current pricesse thisse time



Beverley - Good


2,10


a 5f Cl5 2-y-o Maidenne...



think fav, American Style 5/4 <was 13/8 earlierre , well, not rly surprisedde, can sorta see why.> is notte unopposable here...

will go €3 Win on INVINCIBLE CROWN 10/3... couple of runs (at Windsor in June/July , over ye minimumme) suggestte this simla testte will suit; beingge as Beverley 5f trip is ye stiffererre tesste than @Windsor .. thinkke 11/4 or 3/1 is aboutte righhte for picke's chances, so price okay

favourite has ranne in better races - mainly over 6fs tho.... American Style travelledde well in a few of those til ye one pole, at leastte... fekkitte, looks bestte in race, but mightn't have early speede here....


think it concerns them two, and fekkit again; me pick openedde up 4s earlyahh missedde thatte price Humflippinbugge



those two <likely, but 'opefully notte > losers will do usse for intarestte 2moro


chowwe,

[Enoch Von Clausewitz]

another one at Bevs:


2,40 Beverley


Division 2 of ye previous (ye 2,10) race... go withhe anudda whatte's seen some coinne more humbugge



anyhoo, looks like it's between top three in bettingge here,,,, fav, Cape Sovereign 5/4, is likely or at leastte a possible leader here,,,, short price, droppingge down in trippe from firstte three runs; da two mostte recentte of those saw him try make alle, but ultimately finishedde thirdde in bothhe... don't thinkke drop down in trippe is ye ansa here,,, is howevah, unexposedde over the trip tho.. aint much to hang yer titfer on tho for one whatte's suchhe a short price couldde be wrong, but suspicionne is i won't be hehehe


anyhoo, one whatte might lie just behindde pacesetter/s is Beaujolais Nouveau 10/3... nice name but Twilight Son filly has had enough goes.... looks to have place prospects at bestte.... i'll no be too surprisedde if i'm wrong,, hope not tho

hhmm, mebbe couldde be some sorta in-runningge carnage... possibly notte, butte might try layin' em all at 1/10 or shorter; summatte like thatte


anyhowwe, le pick,


YOUVEGOTOSHOWMELUV 4/1 €5 WIN.... were a banger in oldenne timesse... dinna if it standdes ye test o' time, for to see if Robin S classick retainethhe ye #Banger status.... nust listenne againnne





enoughhe about song & onto ye horse hisselffe... is 2-y-o geldingge from Mick Easterby stable... trainer is in decentte form recently havingge had three wins in last ~21 days,,,,,

was 5/1 earlier, so pity abahtte missingge thatte,, ne'ermindde, how i thinkke he'll runne is he'll go alongge with ye fav early, if thatte horse tries to leadde.... has only hadde the one runne, big enough price thenne but saw some supportte... triedde to lead that day at Catterick, perhappes doingge too much too early there,,,, Still, stagedde a mini rally and acquittedde hisselffe well when finishingge thirdde in a race ran in a fastte time.... the fourth one thatte day, the short-pricedde 3/1 secondde fav Stapleford Park weren't mekkin much inroddes neitherre.... bodes well t'form of thatte race methinkkes

,,,,, thinkke Youvefotoshowmeluv has more scope thanne the fav here; especially at over the minimum trippe,,,, a stiffer testte than at Cattericke shouldde be also beneficialle... thinkke will have 'more gears' than jolly come businesse endde,,,, do me... be nap if were 5/1, but he aintte, so no....

of the restte of the racedde onea, Gemma Tutty's Tipp Top 14/1, can't be ruled outte on thirdde start and firstte for trainer currentte,,, is in same ownershipp as when with Iain Jardine.... couldde be one to pick up pieces if pace collapses, or smth,,, hardde to see Ardad filly winne todayye tho...



think i've a squeak todayye



thatte alle,


gL

[Enoch Von Clausewitz]

in Beverley 3,15, three horses have v good claimes, but notte a cert one of 'em'll winne..

Pink Diesel 5/2.. two runnes to date, has did nowtte wrong so far... come thirdde on debut at Newmarket whenne stayingge on atte ye ennde over 7s... followedde that up with a win on the AW over a furlong shorter; this time from closer to pace ride at Chelmsford whenne sentte off an uneasy 11/4 secondde fav,,,, was ~11/8 in the morningge... not exactly sure extendedde 7f trip here will suit tho, nor if 2yo Showcasing filly will be heldde up or go close to pace.. might've been worth a bette at earlier prices... thinkke was 4/1 earlier.... not muchhe value goingge shorter than 3/1 methinkkes...



Sands Of Indi 10/3.... two runnes and two seconds... both from close to pace ride... firstte of those was at Ponty -on turf, over 6Fs- , and the next were on AW at Newcastle over 7f on Standard / Slow goingge... Suspicion is, and going on breedingge here, that Sands Of Mali might prefer a softer surface.... price looks fine tho... not screamingge out as a bette ats...


the jolly, SURPRISED 15/8, was a deal bigger earlier... came 4th on only run to date... that was over today's course and distance trippe lastte monthhe.. returnedde at 5/1 thatte day, but was available at almostte double that price earlier in the daye.... Was slow into stride , heldde up outte back and finishedde strongly to finishhe 4th of five endingge uppe justte aboutte a length off the winner... didn't look the strongestte five runner fieldde, and race were ranne in a slow enough time...


me thoughts here is, mebbe SURPRISED will be heldde up out back, might trade at bigger price in runningge... perhappes put up 'back' price/s startingge at ~6.0 (5/1) , and mebbe another one at ~ 8.0 (7/1) , as daughter of Ulysses couldde well be mekkin up plenty of groundde late on, and may be able to see offe ye 2nd and thirdde favs here....

.... do thinkke thatte she might need further, so thatte a bittuva negative.. she couldde be justte good enough 2day p'happes ??


themme's me thoughts



gl







((EDIT to adde... - fekkitte, meantte to quote this post ; no editte it ))

no joye there,

for anyone whatte's intarestedde ....
......horse wins, butte don't think @Surprisedde went any bigger than 4.0 (3/1) in-runningge,


so nada there


gl

[Enoch Von Clausewitz]

hhmm, notte too impressedde with us most recentte post... should've putte up an hr earlierre, and not putte up wrongke pricessse then


anyhowwe, thinkingge the fav in that race, Hold A Dream will make runningge, and thatte us picke Maissara will be following closely behindde, be cruisingge a F out, and then mebbe



anotherre one forre tomorrow - with current pricesse thisse time



Beverley - Good


2,10


a 5f Cl5 2-y-o Maidenne...



think fav, American Style 5/4 <was 13/8 earlierre , well, not rly surprisedde, can sorta see why.> is notte unopposable here...

will go €3 Win on INVINCIBLE CROWN 10/3... couple of runs (at Windsor in June/July , over ye minimumme) suggestte this simla testte will suit; beingge as Beverley 5f trip is ye stiffererre tesste than @Windsor .. thinkke 11/4 or 3/1 is aboutte righhte for picke's chances, so price okay

favourite has ranne in better races - mainly over 6fs tho.... American Style travelledde well in a few of those til ye one pole, at leastte... fekkitte, looks bestte in race, but mightn't have early speede here....


think it concerns them two, and fekkit again; me pick openedde up 4s earlyahh missedde thatte price Humflippinbugge



those two <likely, but 'opefully notte > losers will do usse for intarestte 2moro


chowwe,

2nd Invincible Crown


fav made alle and was too good







ah well



might get summatte at sunny Yarmouth yet