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Horse Racing
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Re: Horse Racing
no joy yesterday
Lingfield 3.36 ONE STEP BEYOND 5/1 WIN
In a race where a few have never even won a race, and many of the rest have never won as far as 10fs; at least One Step Beyond is a CD winner. 5/1 is a fair price
GOLDEN DOVE 12/1 EW
6/1 in the paper this one, and that looked about right, altho wouldn't have been overly tempted at that price, but the 5yo mare aint been beat far in her second and third last outings, which were both over course and distance. too big not to back is le reasonage here.
Early Morning Dew ~5/2 is a reasonably lightly raced dual purpose 6yo with 18 runs to his name in total. having just his second run for his current trainer Suzi Best, and came a relatively unlucky second lto at Kempton - which looked his best form to date. that said, it was over a furlong further than today's trip, and on the Standard/Slow going at Kempton. Not for me, even at the 9/2 paper odds. ye can back him if ye want, but i'll leave off.
onto the jolly; Nasim, the on the drift 2/1 fav has three wins over 1m to his 4yo name. mainly races prominently, but his lto win over a mile at Chelmsford saw him held up; and it was not dissimilar tactics utilised the time previous when he finished a close enough 5th over a mile at Southwell. has never went overly close on the three occasions he's ran north of a mile, so is unproven at the trip. that said, he is plummeting in the ratings (down to 67 - from a high of 83 around the middle of last year when with Andrew Balding) , and he hit the line hard when gaining his lto win. verdict: has an extra 2fs to contend with, and on a different track, so am not overly worried about this jolly.
8.30 Kempton CHENG GONG 7/1 EW
gave this one a mention on here when looking at this race a couple of days ago. win was the recommendation when i figured him (going on the probable sp, which had him at 5s) to be a slightly shorter price, but just a little too big to not back each way, imo.
mentioned another horse in that post also:
https://www.gubu.ie/posting.php?mode=re ... 54#pr42384
that horse was Overstate. he was gonna be a second pick, if operating at or around (or bigger ) the predicted 16/1 vicinity. was 10/1 earlier, and is now generally a best-priced 9/1 shot. can't be having him at anything even close to single figures, as he's never won beyond 1.5m, and never raced north of 14fs (1m. 6f.)
just the one pick here in lucky last
prices look favourable, so will chance each way double with One Step Beyond and Cheng Gong
g'l
EDIT Golden Dove is now around 10/1 gen for that 3.36 Lingfield. humbug to prices changing when ye're writing out post
Lingfield 3.36 ONE STEP BEYOND 5/1 WIN
In a race where a few have never even won a race, and many of the rest have never won as far as 10fs; at least One Step Beyond is a CD winner. 5/1 is a fair price
GOLDEN DOVE 12/1 EW
6/1 in the paper this one, and that looked about right, altho wouldn't have been overly tempted at that price, but the 5yo mare aint been beat far in her second and third last outings, which were both over course and distance. too big not to back is le reasonage here.
Early Morning Dew ~5/2 is a reasonably lightly raced dual purpose 6yo with 18 runs to his name in total. having just his second run for his current trainer Suzi Best, and came a relatively unlucky second lto at Kempton - which looked his best form to date. that said, it was over a furlong further than today's trip, and on the Standard/Slow going at Kempton. Not for me, even at the 9/2 paper odds. ye can back him if ye want, but i'll leave off.
onto the jolly; Nasim, the on the drift 2/1 fav has three wins over 1m to his 4yo name. mainly races prominently, but his lto win over a mile at Chelmsford saw him held up; and it was not dissimilar tactics utilised the time previous when he finished a close enough 5th over a mile at Southwell. has never went overly close on the three occasions he's ran north of a mile, so is unproven at the trip. that said, he is plummeting in the ratings (down to 67 - from a high of 83 around the middle of last year when with Andrew Balding) , and he hit the line hard when gaining his lto win. verdict: has an extra 2fs to contend with, and on a different track, so am not overly worried about this jolly.
8.30 Kempton CHENG GONG 7/1 EW
gave this one a mention on here when looking at this race a couple of days ago. win was the recommendation when i figured him (going on the probable sp, which had him at 5s) to be a slightly shorter price, but just a little too big to not back each way, imo.
mentioned another horse in that post also:
https://www.gubu.ie/posting.php?mode=re ... 54#pr42384
that horse was Overstate. he was gonna be a second pick, if operating at or around (or bigger ) the predicted 16/1 vicinity. was 10/1 earlier, and is now generally a best-priced 9/1 shot. can't be having him at anything even close to single figures, as he's never won beyond 1.5m, and never raced north of 14fs (1m. 6f.)
just the one pick here in lucky last
prices look favourable, so will chance each way double with One Step Beyond and Cheng Gong
g'l
EDIT Golden Dove is now around 10/1 gen for that 3.36 Lingfield. humbug to prices changing when ye're writing out post
"when illusion spin her nette, i'm never where i wanna be"
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Re: Horse Racing
Sandown 1.45
in a race that seems to be partly named after last year's winner, and topweight here, Dolos ~10/3 joint/2nd fav; the pen landed on last year's 2nd, and one what came third lto over ~CD (just a few yards diff - for some reason) , FRERO BANBOU 7/1 WIN and/or EW
horse only has two wins, but one of those is a ~CD win from March '21,,, horse goes well at course, likes different kinds of ground and is competitively priced. hoping he gives a good account, and at least looks like having a winning chance at some stage here.
race looks wide open, and i can't honestly rule (not that i'd be right anyway ) any of them out, so one agin t'field will do me - the pick is on the drift (out to ~7s from ~6s) , but drifts don't bother me (not that it's much of a drift, but anyhow)
had a glance at 12.40 Lingfield, and i'll try to find one or (no more than) two picks for that one; unless it's too tricky. 1m 5f is the trip, so likely there be some angles as far as horses going up/down in trip/grade etc,, looks like one that has attracted punters' attention, as, even at this early stage, most of the field are either coming in, or going out in price
in a race that seems to be partly named after last year's winner, and topweight here, Dolos ~10/3 joint/2nd fav; the pen landed on last year's 2nd, and one what came third lto over ~CD (just a few yards diff - for some reason) , FRERO BANBOU 7/1 WIN and/or EW
horse only has two wins, but one of those is a ~CD win from March '21,,, horse goes well at course, likes different kinds of ground and is competitively priced. hoping he gives a good account, and at least looks like having a winning chance at some stage here.
race looks wide open, and i can't honestly rule (not that i'd be right anyway ) any of them out, so one agin t'field will do me - the pick is on the drift (out to ~7s from ~6s) , but drifts don't bother me (not that it's much of a drift, but anyhow)
had a glance at 12.40 Lingfield, and i'll try to find one or (no more than) two picks for that one; unless it's too tricky. 1m 5f is the trip, so likely there be some angles as far as horses going up/down in trip/grade etc,, looks like one that has attracted punters' attention, as, even at this early stage, most of the field are either coming in, or going out in price
"when illusion spin her nette, i'm never where i wanna be"
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Re: Horse Racing
Code: Select all
had a glance at 12.40 Lingfield, and i'll try to find one or (no more than) two picks for that one; unless it's too tricky. 1m 5f is the trip, so likely there be some angles as far as horses going up/down in trip/grade etc,, looks like one that has attracted punters' attention, as, even at this early stage, most of the field are either coming in, or going out in price
12.40 Lingfield
been able to give four or five of them claims - even then something else could win: one was the jolly of G Moore's, Capricorn Prince, the ~10/3 fav; who's a CD winner from March of last year - albeit in a slowish time, but overall profile and price is enough to put one off, imho
pen landed on two:
MURHIB 16/1 EW ,, is 'ancient' at 11yo, but won this two years ago (altho 9 aint a big age at this lowly level) ; and is on the drift, but is well drawn (lowest of all in box 1) , and Mrs Richards' Sea The Stars gelding shows he still retains some ability as has only been beaten ~20lgths or so in total out of his last 5 races, with all of them at similar trips/surfaces/grades, and that's good enough pour moi
2nd pick is ANISOPTERA 15/2 EW. this one, unlike t'other pick has seen some early coin. goes well at the course, and can boast a win over further, as seen when winning over further at the 2m distance in Nov '20, and ran a good race recently enough at the course when finishing second over ~1f shorter at the course two runs back; will hope he's held up from his box 8 draw.
no strong fancies today, so no "Nap" or "NB" picks, and if i can't find owt else, i'm relatively happy with me choices.
gluck
"when illusion spin her nette, i'm never where i wanna be"
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Re: Horse Racing
2.03 Musselburgh
nigh on 4m this race, so is a veritable "two fag" race, this "Edinburgh National"
have a rake of picks here and i'm almost embarrassed for having that amount
ones i dismissed are: those i deemed #may be unsuited by the long distance, and #those that may prefer softer going (good to Soft - Good in places is t'given Going description)
#a race over ~4m, so many here wouldn't have tackled this distance too often, if at all, so merely guessing as to the ones what can be ruled out.
hopefully these picks have all got strong/reasonable claims; and i give meself a 50/50 chance of catching winner.
no write-up on them, but here be the picks:
SLIPWAY 4/1 WIN
MIGHTY THUNDER 40/1 EW
THE WOLF 15/2 EW
TIDE TIMES 14/1 EW
THE FERRY MASTER 14/1 EW
MAGNA SAM 35/1 EW
ones towards top of betting i'm considering laying for five places (for ~evs, if i can) are: Truckers Lodge 15/2 and Doyen Breed 15/2.. am not seeing why they're so short, but dat's only me
be annoyed if @Flower Of Scotland ~6/1 wins, as i can't completely rule him out, but he might want softer, perhaps?
think last year's winner Captain Cattistock 17/2 has too much weight
damn these "National" type races - i do go mad with the amt of picks in dem
nigh on 4m this race, so is a veritable "two fag" race, this "Edinburgh National"
have a rake of picks here and i'm almost embarrassed for having that amount
ones i dismissed are: those i deemed #may be unsuited by the long distance, and #those that may prefer softer going (good to Soft - Good in places is t'given Going description)
#a race over ~4m, so many here wouldn't have tackled this distance too often, if at all, so merely guessing as to the ones what can be ruled out.
hopefully these picks have all got strong/reasonable claims; and i give meself a 50/50 chance of catching winner.
no write-up on them, but here be the picks:
SLIPWAY 4/1 WIN
MIGHTY THUNDER 40/1 EW
THE WOLF 15/2 EW
TIDE TIMES 14/1 EW
THE FERRY MASTER 14/1 EW
MAGNA SAM 35/1 EW
ones towards top of betting i'm considering laying for five places (for ~evs, if i can) are: Truckers Lodge 15/2 and Doyen Breed 15/2.. am not seeing why they're so short, but dat's only me
be annoyed if @Flower Of Scotland ~6/1 wins, as i can't completely rule him out, but he might want softer, perhaps?
think last year's winner Captain Cattistock 17/2 has too much weight
damn these "National" type races - i do go mad with the amt of picks in dem
"when illusion spin her nette, i'm never where i wanna be"
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Re: Horse Racing
no joy there; Ryan/Gary Moore fav winsEnoch Von Clausewitz wrote: ↑Sat Feb 04, 2023 10:57 amhad a quick once over glance at them allCode: Select all
had a glance at 12.40 Lingfield, and i'll try to find one or (no more than) two picks for that one; unless it's too tricky. 1m 5f is the trip, so likely there be some angles as far as horses going up/down in trip/grade etc,, looks like one that has attracted punters' attention, as, even at this early stage, most of the field are either coming in, or going out in price
12.40 Lingfield
been able to give four or five of them claims - even then something else could win: one was the jolly of G Moore's, Capricorn Prince, the ~10/3 fav; who's a CD winner from March of last year - albeit in a slowish time, but overall profile and price is enough to put one off, imho
pen landed on two:
MURHIB 16/1 EW ,, is 'ancient' at 11yo, but won this two years ago (altho 9 aint a big age at this lowly level) ; and is on the drift, but is well drawn (lowest of all in box 1) , and Mrs Richards' Sea The Stars gelding shows he still retains some ability as has only been beaten ~20lgths or so in total out of his last 5 races, with all of them at similar trips/surfaces/grades, and that's good enough pour moi
2nd pick is ANISOPTERA 15/2 EW. this one, unlike t'other pick has seen some early coin. goes well at the course, and can boast a win over further, as seen when winning over further at the 2m distance in Nov '20, and ran a good race recently enough at the course when finishing second over ~1f shorter at the course two runs back; will hope he's held up from his box 8 draw.
no strong fancies today, so no "Nap" or "NB" picks, and if i can't find owt else, i'm relatively happy with me choices.
gluck
Anisoptera 5th - went wide; not one for notebook at dat craic... Murhib about 10th
"when illusion spin her nette, i'm never where i wanna be"
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Re: Horse Racing
hopeful outsider time
Kempton 5.30 FAST FLO 25/1 EW
Kempton 5.30 FAST FLO 25/1 EW
"when illusion spin her nette, i'm never where i wanna be"
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Re: Horse Racing
not even placed - 4th Frero BanbouEnoch Von Clausewitz wrote: ↑Sat Feb 04, 2023 10:26 am Sandown 1.45
in a race that seems to be partly named after last year's winner, and topweight here, Dolos ~10/3 joint/2nd fav; the pen landed on last year's 2nd, and one what came third lto over ~CD (just a few yards diff - for some reason) , FRERO BANBOU 7/1 WIN and/or EW
horse only has two wins, but one of those is a ~CD win from March '21,,, horse goes well at course, likes different kinds of ground and is competitively priced. hoping he gives a good account, and at least looks like having a winning chance at some stage here.
race looks wide open, and i can't honestly rule (not that i'd be right anyway ) any of them out, so one agin t'field will do me - the pick is on the drift (out to ~7s from ~6s) , but drifts don't bother me (not that it's much of a drift, but anyhow)
had a glance at 12.40 Lingfield, and i'll try to find one or (no more than) two picks for that one; unless it's too tricky. 1m 5f is the trip, so likely there be some angles as far as horses going up/down in trip/grade etc,, looks like one that has attracted punters' attention, as, even at this early stage, most of the field are either coming in, or going out in price
nt good so far
"when illusion spin her nette, i'm never where i wanna be"
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Re: Horse Racing
Enoch Von Clausewitz wrote: ↑Sat Feb 04, 2023 12:22 pm 2.03 Musselburgh
nigh on 4m this race, so is a veritable "two fag" race, this "Edinburgh National"
have a rake of picks here and i'm almost embarrassed for having that amount
ones i dismissed are: those i deemed #may be unsuited by the long distance, and #those that may prefer softer going (good to Soft - Good in places is t'given Going description)
#a race over ~4m, so many here wouldn't have tackled this distance too often, if at all, so merely guessing as to the ones what can be ruled out.
hopefully these picks have all got strong/reasonable claims; and i give meself a 50/50 chance of catching winner.
no write-up on them, but here be the picks:
SLIPWAY 4/1 WIN
MIGHTY THUNDER 40/1 EW
THE WOLF 15/2 EW
TIDE TIMES 14/1 EW
THE FERRY MASTER 14/1 EW
MAGNA SAM 35/1 EW
ones towards top of betting i'm considering laying for five places (for ~evs, if i can) are: Truckers Lodge 15/2 and Doyen Breed 15/2.. am not seeing why they're so short, but dat's only me
be annoyed if @Flower Of Scotland ~6/1 wins, as i can't completely rule him out, but he might want softer, perhaps?
think last year's winner Captain Cattistock 17/2 has too much weight
damn these "National" type races - i do go mad with the amt of picks in dem
Code: Select all
[b]SLIPWAY [/b]4/1 WIN
[b]MIGHTY THUNDER[/b] 40/1 EW
[b]THE WOLF [/b]15/2 EW
[b]TIDE TIMES [/b]14/1 EW
[b]THE FERRY MASTER[/b] 14/1 EW
[b]MAGNA SAM [/b]35/1 EW
just the one placer there
"when illusion spin her nette, i'm never where i wanna be"
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Re: Horse Racing
but thank fq he were also a WINNNNNNNNA - hup MAGNA SAM!!!! And young Alex EdwardsEnoch Von Clausewitz wrote: ↑Sat Feb 04, 2023 2:17 pmCode: Select all
[b]SLIPWAY [/b]4/1 WIN [b]MIGHTY THUNDER[/b] 40/1 EW [b]THE WOLF [/b]15/2 EW [b]TIDE TIMES [/b]14/1 EW [b]THE FERRY MASTER[/b] 14/1 EW [b]MAGNA SAM [/b]35/1 EW
just the one placer there
"when illusion spin her nette, i'm never where i wanna be"
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Re: Horse Racing
4.10 Leopardstown
Fils d'Oudairies ~11/4
goes chasing today = good. punted on = also good
7 goes over the larger obstacles; just the one win,, seems a suspect jumpa to me - might even fall.. Going is "Yielding" ,,, might could be he either wants a longer trip or softer going, or both !
chanced 4-place lay @ ~4/6
g'luck
Fils d'Oudairies ~11/4
goes chasing today = good. punted on = also good
7 goes over the larger obstacles; just the one win,, seems a suspect jumpa to me - might even fall.. Going is "Yielding" ,,, might could be he either wants a longer trip or softer going, or both !
chanced 4-place lay @ ~4/6
g'luck
"when illusion spin her nette, i'm never where i wanna be"
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Re: Horse Racing
in same race: 4.10 Leopardstown i'll chance multiple course winner, who's dropping down to a more suitable distance, and should prefer the better going than what he's been racing on recently, and that is A WAVE OF THE SEA 5/1 WIN, who's won this renewal the last twice
interesting is that JP's regular jock goes on his other horse Get My Drift ~9/2, but not reading anything into that, as both are trained by separate trainers: Joey trains the pick, and has a 7lb claimer atop, whereas 'Mouse' trains the Mark Walsh partnered one
gluck all what's still puntin' , if anyone at all
interesting is that JP's regular jock goes on his other horse Get My Drift ~9/2, but not reading anything into that, as both are trained by separate trainers: Joey trains the pick, and has a 7lb claimer atop, whereas 'Mouse' trains the Mark Walsh partnered one
gluck all what's still puntin' , if anyone at all
"when illusion spin her nette, i'm never where i wanna be"
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Re: Horse Racing
Enoch Von Clausewitz wrote: ↑Sat Feb 04, 2023 8:43 am no joy yesterday
Lingfield 3.36 ONE STEP BEYOND 5/1 WIN
In a race where a few have never even won a race, and many of the rest have never won as far as 10fs; at least One Step Beyond is a CD winner. 5/1 is a fair price
GOLDEN DOVE 12/1 EW
6/1 in the paper this one, and that looked about right, altho wouldn't have been overly tempted at that price, but the 5yo mare aint been beat far in her second and third last outings, which were both over course and distance. too big not to back is le reasonage here.
Early Morning Dew ~5/2 is a reasonably lightly raced dual purpose 6yo with 18 runs to his name in total. having just his second run for his current trainer Suzi Best, and came a relatively unlucky second lto at Kempton - which looked his best form to date. that said, it was over a furlong further than today's trip, and on the Standard/Slow going at Kempton. Not for me, even at the 9/2 paper odds. ye can back him if ye want, but i'll leave off.
onto the jolly; Nasim, the on the drift 2/1 fav has three wins over 1m to his 4yo name. mainly races prominently, but his lto win over a mile at Chelmsford saw him held up; and it was not dissimilar tactics utilised the time previous when he finished a close enough 5th over a mile at Southwell. has never went overly close on the three occasions he's ran north of a mile, so is unproven at the trip. that said, he is plummeting in the ratings (down to 67 - from a high of 83 around the middle of last year when with Andrew Balding) , and he hit the line hard when gaining his lto win. verdict: has an extra 2fs to contend with, and on a different track, so am not overly worried about this jolly.
8.30 Kempton CHENG GONG 7/1 EW
gave this one a mention on here when looking at this race a couple of days ago. win was the recommendation when i figured him (going on the probable sp, which had him at 5s) to be a slightly shorter price, but just a little too big to not back each way, imo.
mentioned another horse in that post also:
https://www.gubu.ie/posting.php?mode=re ... 54#pr42384
that horse was Overstate. he was gonna be a second pick, if operating at or around (or bigger ) the predicted 16/1 vicinity. was 10/1 earlier, and is now generally a best-priced 9/1 shot. can't be having him at anything even close to single figures, as he's never won beyond 1.5m, and never raced north of 14fs (1m. 6f.)
just the one pick here in lucky last
prices look favourable, so will chance each way double with One Step Beyond and Cheng Gong
g'l
EDIT Golden Dove is now around 10/1 gen for that 3.36 Lingfield. humbug to prices changing when ye're writing out post
Code: Select all
Lingfield 3.36 [b]ONE STEP BEYOND[/b] 5/1 WIN
In a race where a few have never even won a race, and many of the rest have never won as far as 10fs; at least One Step Beyond is a CD winner. 5/1 is a fair price
[b]GOLDEN DOVE[/b] 12/1 EW
6/1 in the paper this one, and that looked about right, altho wouldn't have been overly tempted at that price, but the 5yo mare aint been beat far in her second and third last outings, which were both over course and distance. [i] too big not to back[/i] is le reasonage here.
me happy
"when illusion spin her nette, i'm never where i wanna be"
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Re: Horse Racing
ran a good race; a little blunder at the last, but probably wouldn't have won anyway,, finished about third, I think, the pick, A Wave Of The SeaEnoch Von Clausewitz wrote: ↑Sat Feb 04, 2023 3:12 pm in same race: 4.10 Leopardstown i'll chance multiple course winner, who's dropping down to a more suitable distance, and should prefer the better going than what he's been racing on recently, and that is A WAVE OF THE SEA 5/1 WIN, who's won this renewal the last twice
interesting is that JP's regular jock goes on his other horse Get My Drift ~9/2, but not reading anything into that, as both are trained by separate trainers: Joey trains the pick, and has a 7lb claimer atop, whereas 'Mouse' trains the Mark Walsh partnered one
gluck all what's still puntin' , if anyone at all
Last edited by Enoch Von Clausewitz on Sat Feb 04, 2023 4:21 pm, edited 1 time in total.
"when illusion spin her nette, i'm never where i wanna be"
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Re: Horse Racing
Enoch Von Clausewitz wrote: ↑Sat Feb 04, 2023 4:17 pm ran a good race; a little blunder at the last, but probably wouldn't have won anyway,, finished about third, I think, the pick, A Wave Of The Sea
"when illusion spin her nette, i'm never where i wanna be"
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Re: Horse Racing
6.30 Kempton
wide open and interesting race imo. think Jamie Osborne's jolly All Dunn ~2/1 should go well. some in this are having their first h'cap runs, so i'll go for summat at a big price:
SUMAC ~16s EW is drifting, but has a chance on form if staying the 7f trip here, and i think he will
gl
wide open and interesting race imo. think Jamie Osborne's jolly All Dunn ~2/1 should go well. some in this are having their first h'cap runs, so i'll go for summat at a big price:
SUMAC ~16s EW is drifting, but has a chance on form if staying the 7f trip here, and i think he will
gl
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Re: Horse Racing
in same race, 6.30K, i see that the J Fanshawe/D Muscutt (or "Muscat" if ye're 'ayley Moore ) sends out the well-punted on, and second fav Annie Law ~11/4. first run in h'cap, and impossible to make a case for those types - given that they normally finish a deal off the winner in Maiden/Novice Stakes company; and this one is no exception..
anyroad, looks a decent enough field here, and it's not how far the selection finished behind winner in her three runs that peeks me intarest 'ere; nope, it's 'ye breeding' what has me wanting to oppose daughter of Havana Grey for this Class6,,
,,,,,,, I think them Havana Grey's are suspect at this trip (7furlongs) , and, as well as her skimpy looking price, and this being a deep enough renewal for the grade, oi fink Annie Law is a decent pick as far as place-lays goes
3-place lay @ ~5/6 & 4-place lay @ ~1/2 to bolster today's pro fits a smidge
anyroad, looks a decent enough field here, and it's not how far the selection finished behind winner in her three runs that peeks me intarest 'ere; nope, it's 'ye breeding' what has me wanting to oppose daughter of Havana Grey for this Class6,,
,,,,,,, I think them Havana Grey's are suspect at this trip (7furlongs) , and, as well as her skimpy looking price, and this being a deep enough renewal for the grade, oi fink Annie Law is a decent pick as far as place-lays goes
3-place lay @ ~5/6 & 4-place lay @ ~1/2 to bolster today's pro fits a smidge
"when illusion spin her nette, i'm never where i wanna be"
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Re: Horse Racing
8.00 Kempton
Arab Cinder ~9/4 is being supported here; she's on her third trainer, and has previously ran well at the course - when finishing 2nd over ~1m4f at here Kempton on her latest run, and also the last for her previous trainer..
negatives: 100+ days layoff, and today's trip is 1furlong shorter than that Oct '22 course second..
enough green shoots as far as her being a place-lay contender, goes
chanced 3-place lay @ ~ 10/11 and 4-place lay @ ~ 1/2
in same race, and i don't really know why, as five or six of the field have far more obvious claims on form shown; but race is too competitive to go with a shorty, and Frank (or Jamie to everybody else ) takes mount for first time; horse has course winning form - over a deal shorter, but ne'ermind,, i'll chance small and very speculative each way on SID'S ANNIE @ 12/1
g'l
Arab Cinder ~9/4 is being supported here; she's on her third trainer, and has previously ran well at the course - when finishing 2nd over ~1m4f at here Kempton on her latest run, and also the last for her previous trainer..
negatives: 100+ days layoff, and today's trip is 1furlong shorter than that Oct '22 course second..
enough green shoots as far as her being a place-lay contender, goes
chanced 3-place lay @ ~ 10/11 and 4-place lay @ ~ 1/2
in same race, and i don't really know why, as five or six of the field have far more obvious claims on form shown; but race is too competitive to go with a shorty, and Frank (or Jamie to everybody else ) takes mount for first time; horse has course winning form - over a deal shorter, but ne'ermind,, i'll chance small and very speculative each way on SID'S ANNIE @ 12/1
g'l
"when illusion spin her nette, i'm never where i wanna be"
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Re: Horse Racing
4th (again) Fast Flo - almost collected place part there, but she was ran out of places last ~50ydsEnoch Von Clausewitz wrote: ↑Sat Feb 04, 2023 1:45 pm hopeful outsider time
Kempton 5.30 FAST FLO 25/1 EW
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Re: Horse Racing
7.30 Kempton
ONE MORE OLLY 25s EW speculative pick this in yet another wide open looking race
chance four-place lay on skinny ~7/4 fav Ignac Lamar @ ~ 3/10 ,, very short atc this well supported fav, what might be better on the Tapeta surface - as opposed to the Poly; am hoping the 6f trip at the course here will be a bit sharp for Millman's (shrewd as he is ) inmate
could back five here, so more 'green shoots' as far as the favourite getting turned over here, goes
7.00 Kempton DIOCLES OF ROME 15/2 EW ,, CD winner to go well off topweight, and give Laura Pearson a second winner since her comeback
gl
ONE MORE OLLY 25s EW speculative pick this in yet another wide open looking race
chance four-place lay on skinny ~7/4 fav Ignac Lamar @ ~ 3/10 ,, very short atc this well supported fav, what might be better on the Tapeta surface - as opposed to the Poly; am hoping the 6f trip at the course here will be a bit sharp for Millman's (shrewd as he is ) inmate
could back five here, so more 'green shoots' as far as the favourite getting turned over here, goes
7.00 Kempton DIOCLES OF ROME 15/2 EW ,, CD winner to go well off topweight, and give Laura Pearson a second winner since her comeback
gl
"when illusion spin her nette, i'm never where i wanna be"
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Re: Horse Racing
no good SumacEnoch Von Clausewitz wrote: ↑Sat Feb 04, 2023 4:34 pm 6.30 Kempton
wide open and interesting race imo. think Jamie Osborne's jolly All Dunn ~2/1 should go well. some in this are having their first h'cap runs, so i'll go for summat at a big price:
SUMAC ~16s EW is drifting, but has a chance on form if staying the 7f trip here, and i think he will
gl
"when illusion spin her nette, i'm never where i wanna be"
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Re: Horse Racing
rubbish Annie Law only goes and wins - fekkit anywayEnoch Von Clausewitz wrote: ↑Sat Feb 04, 2023 4:51 pm in same race, 6.30K, i see that the J Fanshawe/D Muscutt (or "Muscat" if ye're 'ayley Moore ) sends out the well-punted on, and second fav Annie Law ~11/4. first run in h'cap, and impossible to make a case for those types - given that they normally finish a deal off the winner in Maiden/Novice Stakes company; and this one is no exception..
anyroad, looks a decent enough field here, and it's not how far the selection finished behind winner in her three runs that peeks me intarest 'ere; nope, it's 'ye breeding' what has me wanting to oppose daughter of Havana Grey for this Class6,,
,,,,,,, I think them Havana Grey's are suspect at this trip (7furlongs) , and, as well as her skimpy looking price, and this being a deep enough renewal for the grade, oi fink Annie Law is a decent pick as far as place-lays goes
3-place lay @ ~5/6 & 4-place lay @ ~1/2 to bolster today's pro fits a smidge
"when illusion spin her nette, i'm never where i wanna be"
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Re: Horse Racing
Enoch Von Clausewitz wrote: ↑Sat Feb 04, 2023 6:34 pm 7.30 Kempton
ONE MORE OLLY 25s EW speculative pick this in yet another wide open looking race
chance four-place lay on skinny ~7/4 fav Ignac Lamar @ ~ 3/10 ,, very short atc this well supported fav, what might be better on the Tapeta surface - as opposed to the Poly; am hoping the 6f trip at the course here will be a bit sharp for Millman's (shrewd as he is ) inmate
could back five here, so more 'green shoots' as far as the favourite getting turned over here, goes
7.00 Kempton DIOCLES OF ROME 15/2 EW ,, CD winner to go well off topweight, and give Laura Pearson a second winner since her comeback
gl
Code: Select all
7.00 Kempton [b]DIOCLES OF ROME[/b] 15/2 EW ,, CD winner to go well off topweight, and give Laura Pearson a second winner since her comeback
"when illusion spin her nette, i'm never where i wanna be"
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Re: Horse Racing
tomorrow Sunday 5th Feb
4.10 Leopardstown
Gaelic Warrior is ~2/1 fav and will likely take a lot of beating here,, can't fear just one, and some books are going five places here..
some that might make the frame:
ANNA BUNINA 33/1, TAX FOR MAX 9/1 , EFFERNOCK FIZZ 25/1 , MAN O WORK 14/1 , AN MHI 14/1 & NIBIRU 25/1
two miles over the sticks on good or close to good ground (Yielding atm, which is like good to soft, so that'll do) should suit all or most of the above
likely back a few of these meself
4.10 Leopardstown
Gaelic Warrior is ~2/1 fav and will likely take a lot of beating here,, can't fear just one, and some books are going five places here..
some that might make the frame:
ANNA BUNINA 33/1, TAX FOR MAX 9/1 , EFFERNOCK FIZZ 25/1 , MAN O WORK 14/1 , AN MHI 14/1 & NIBIRU 25/1
two miles over the sticks on good or close to good ground (Yielding atm, which is like good to soft, so that'll do) should suit all or most of the above
likely back a few of these meself
"when illusion spin her nette, i'm never where i wanna be"
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Re: Horse Racing
Enoch Von Clausewitz wrote: ↑Sat Feb 04, 2023 8:43 am no joy yesterday
Lingfield 3.36 ONE STEP BEYOND 5/1 WIN
In a race where a few have never even won a race, and many of the rest have never won as far as 10fs; at least One Step Beyond is a CD winner. 5/1 is a fair price
GOLDEN DOVE 12/1 EW
6/1 in the paper this one, and that looked about right, altho wouldn't have been overly tempted at that price, but the 5yo mare aint been beat far in her second and third last outings, which were both over course and distance. too big not to back is le reasonage here.
Early Morning Dew ~5/2 is a reasonably lightly raced dual purpose 6yo with 18 runs to his name in total. having just his second run for his current trainer Suzi Best, and came a relatively unlucky second lto at Kempton - which looked his best form to date. that said, it was over a furlong further than today's trip, and on the Standard/Slow going at Kempton. Not for me, even at the 9/2 paper odds. ye can back him if ye want, but i'll leave off.
onto the jolly; Nasim, the on the drift 2/1 fav has three wins over 1m to his 4yo name. mainly races prominently, but his lto win over a mile at Chelmsford saw him held up; and it was not dissimilar tactics utilised the time previous when he finished a close enough 5th over a mile at Southwell. has never went overly close on the three occasions he's ran north of a mile, so is unproven at the trip. that said, he is plummeting in the ratings (down to 67 - from a high of 83 around the middle of last year when with Andrew Balding) , and he hit the line hard when gaining his lto win. verdict: has an extra 2fs to contend with, and on a different track, so am not overly worried about this jolly.
8.30 Kempton CHENG GONG 7/1 EW
gave this one a mention on here when looking at this race a couple of days ago. win was the recommendation when i figured him (going on the probable sp, which had him at 5s) to be a slightly shorter price, but just a little too big to not back each way, imo.
mentioned another horse in that post also:
https://www.gubu.ie/posting.php?mode=re ... 54#pr42384
that horse was Overstate. he was gonna be a second pick, if operating at or around (or bigger ) the predicted 16/1 vicinity. was 10/1 earlier, and is now generally a best-priced 9/1 shot. can't be having him at anything even close to single figures, as he's never won beyond 1.5m, and never raced north of 14fs (1m. 6f.)
just the one pick here in lucky last
prices look favourable, so will chance each way double with One Step Beyond and Cheng Gong
g'l
EDIT Golden Dove is now around 10/1 gen for that 3.36 Lingfield. humbug to prices changing when ye're writing out post
Code: Select all
8.30 Kempton [b]CHENG GONG [/b]7/1 EW
gave this one a mention on here when looking at this race a couple of days ago. win was the recommendation when i figured him (going on the probable sp, which had him at 5s) to be a slightly shorter price, but just a little too big to [i]not[/i] back each way, imo.
mentioned another horse in that post also:
https://www.gubu.ie/posting.php?mode=reply&f=12&t=354#pr42384
that horse was Overstate. he was gonna be a second pick, if operating at or around (or bigger :lol: ) the predicted 16/1 vicinity. was 10/1 earlier, and is now generally a best-priced 9/1 shot. can't be having him at anything even close to single figures, as he's never won beyond 1.5m, and never raced north of 14fs (1m. 6f.)
just the one pick here in lucky last
prices look favourable, so will chance [b]each way double[/b] with One Step Beyond and Cheng Gong
there goes me double
me put off Overstate on account of price, but he laughs at opposition and wins as a massive gambled on 11/4 fav
"when illusion spin her nette, i'm never where i wanna be"
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Re: Horse Racing
looking forwards
Monday 6th Feb
7.00 Wolves
Tothenines ~10/1 is going the right way, and can make his presence felt upped in trip to the extended mile here,, has decent draw in box 3
Masqool ~10/1 is also worthy of consideration in an open looking race; with a few course and distance winners in lineup that can complete the course in a fast time. drawn in box 6, will hope Duggie can get this one held up early,, has been to the fore in recent races - without any success,, needs to come from behind imo
Abnaa ~7/2 aint never won beyond a mile, and his poor draw in box 13 surely makes him look a potential place-lay(s) job
dem's me final thoughts on hyah 2day
g'nite
Monday 6th Feb
7.00 Wolves
Tothenines ~10/1 is going the right way, and can make his presence felt upped in trip to the extended mile here,, has decent draw in box 3
Masqool ~10/1 is also worthy of consideration in an open looking race; with a few course and distance winners in lineup that can complete the course in a fast time. drawn in box 6, will hope Duggie can get this one held up early,, has been to the fore in recent races - without any success,, needs to come from behind imo
Abnaa ~7/2 aint never won beyond a mile, and his poor draw in box 13 surely makes him look a potential place-lay(s) job
dem's me final thoughts on hyah 2day
g'nite
"when illusion spin her nette, i'm never where i wanna be"
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