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Horse Racing

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Enoch Von Clausewitz
Posts: 613
Joined: Sat Jun 11, 2022 5:17 am

Re: Horse Racing

#226

Post by Enoch Von Clausewitz »

no joy yesterday

Lingfield 3.36 ONE STEP BEYOND 5/1 WIN

In a race where a few have never even won a race, and many of the rest have never won as far as 10fs; at least One Step Beyond is a CD winner. 5/1 is a fair price

GOLDEN DOVE 12/1 EW

6/1 in the paper this one, and that looked about right, altho wouldn't have been overly tempted at that price, but the 5yo mare aint been beat far in her second and third last outings, which were both over course and distance. too big not to back is le reasonage here.

Early Morning Dew ~5/2 is a reasonably lightly raced dual purpose 6yo with 18 runs to his name in total. having just his second run for his current trainer Suzi Best, and came a relatively unlucky second lto at Kempton - which looked his best form to date. that said, it was over a furlong further than today's trip, and on the Standard/Slow going at Kempton. Not for me, even at the 9/2 paper odds. ye can back him if ye want, but i'll leave off.

onto the jolly; Nasim, the on the drift 2/1 fav has three wins over 1m to his 4yo name. mainly races prominently, but his lto win over a mile at Chelmsford saw him held up; and it was not dissimilar tactics utilised the time previous when he finished a close enough 5th over a mile at Southwell. has never went overly close on the three occasions he's ran north of a mile, so is unproven at the trip. that said, he is plummeting in the ratings (down to 67 - from a high of 83 around the middle of last year when with Andrew Balding) , and he hit the line hard when gaining his lto win. verdict: has an extra 2fs to contend with, and on a different track, so am not overly worried about this jolly.


8.30 Kempton CHENG GONG 7/1 EW

gave this one a mention on here when looking at this race a couple of days ago. win was the recommendation when i figured him (going on the probable sp, which had him at 5s) to be a slightly shorter price, but just a little too big to not back each way, imo.

mentioned another horse in that post also:

https://www.gubu.ie/posting.php?mode=re ... 54#pr42384

that horse was Overstate. he was gonna be a second pick, if operating at or around (or bigger :lol: ) the predicted 16/1 vicinity. was 10/1 earlier, and is now generally a best-priced 9/1 shot. can't be having him at anything even close to single figures, as he's never won beyond 1.5m, and never raced north of 14fs (1m. 6f.)

just the one pick here in lucky last

prices look favourable, so will chance each way double with One Step Beyond and Cheng Gong

g'l

EDIT Golden Dove is now around 10/1 gen for that 3.36 Lingfield. humbug to prices changing when ye're writing out post :D :cry: :cry: :oops:
"when illusion spin her nette, i'm never where i wanna be"

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Enoch Von Clausewitz
Posts: 613
Joined: Sat Jun 11, 2022 5:17 am

Re: Horse Racing

#227

Post by Enoch Von Clausewitz »

Sandown 1.45

in a race that seems to be partly named after last year's winner, and topweight here, Dolos ~10/3 joint/2nd fav; the pen landed on last year's 2nd, and one what came third lto over ~CD (just a few yards diff - for some reason) , FRERO BANBOU 7/1 WIN and/or EW

horse only has two wins, but one of those is a ~CD win from March '21,,, horse goes well at course, likes different kinds of ground and is competitively priced. hoping he gives a good account, and at least looks like having a winning chance at some stage here.

race looks wide open, and i can't honestly rule (not that i'd be right anyway :mrgreen: ) any of them out, so one agin t'field will do me - the pick is on the drift (out to ~7s from ~6s) , but drifts don't bother me (not that it's much of a drift, but anyhow)

had a glance at 12.40 Lingfield, and i'll try to find one or (no more than) two picks for that one; unless it's too tricky. 1m 5f is the trip, so likely there be some angles as far as horses going up/down in trip/grade etc,, looks like one that has attracted punters' attention, as, even at this early stage, most of the field are either coming in, or going out in price

:)
"when illusion spin her nette, i'm never where i wanna be"

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Enoch Von Clausewitz
Posts: 613
Joined: Sat Jun 11, 2022 5:17 am

Re: Horse Racing

#228

Post by Enoch Von Clausewitz »

Code: Select all

had a glance at 12.40 Lingfield, and i'll try to find one or (no more than) two picks for that one; unless it's too tricky. 1m 5f is the trip, so likely there be some angles as far as horses going up/down in trip/grade etc,, looks like one that has attracted punters' attention, as, even at this early stage, most of the field are either coming in, or going out in price
had a quick once over glance at them all

12.40 Lingfield

been able to give four or five of them claims - even then something else could win: one was the jolly of G Moore's, Capricorn Prince, the ~10/3 fav; who's a CD winner from March of last year - albeit in a slowish time, but overall profile and price is enough to put one off, imho

pen landed on two:

MURHIB 16/1 EW ,, is 'ancient' at 11yo, but won this two years ago (altho 9 aint a big age at this lowly level) ; and is on the drift, but is well drawn (lowest of all in box 1) , and Mrs Richards' Sea The Stars gelding shows he still retains some ability as has only been beaten ~20lgths or so in total out of his last 5 races, with all of them at similar trips/surfaces/grades, and that's good enough pour moi

2nd pick is ANISOPTERA 15/2 EW. this one, unlike t'other pick has seen some early coin. goes well at the course, and can boast a win over further, as seen when winning over further at the 2m distance in Nov '20, and ran a good race recently enough at the course when finishing second over ~1f shorter at the course two runs back; will hope he's held up from his box 8 draw.

no strong fancies today, so no "Nap" or "NB" picks, and if i can't find owt else, i'm relatively happy with me choices.

gluck :)
"when illusion spin her nette, i'm never where i wanna be"

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Enoch Von Clausewitz
Posts: 613
Joined: Sat Jun 11, 2022 5:17 am

Re: Horse Racing

#229

Post by Enoch Von Clausewitz »

2.03 Musselburgh

nigh on 4m this race, so is a veritable "two fag" race, this "Edinburgh National"

have a rake of picks here and i'm almost embarrassed for having that amount :lol:

ones i dismissed are: those i deemed #may be unsuited by the long distance, and #those that may prefer softer going (good to Soft - Good in places is t'given Going description)

#a race over ~4m, so many here wouldn't have tackled this distance too often, if at all, so merely guessing as to the ones what can be ruled out.

hopefully these picks have all got strong/reasonable claims; and i give meself a 50/50 chance of catching winner.

no write-up on them, but here be the picks:

SLIPWAY 4/1 WIN

MIGHTY THUNDER 40/1 EW

THE WOLF 15/2 EW

TIDE TIMES 14/1 EW

THE FERRY MASTER 14/1 EW

MAGNA SAM 35/1 EW

ones towards top of betting i'm considering laying for five places (for ~evs, if i can) are: Truckers Lodge 15/2 and Doyen Breed 15/2.. am not seeing why they're so short, but dat's only me :lol:

be annoyed if @Flower Of Scotland ~6/1 wins, as i can't completely rule him out, but he might want softer, perhaps?

think last year's winner Captain Cattistock 17/2 has too much weight


damn these "National" type races - i do go mad with the amt of picks in dem :? :( :shock: :mrgreen:
"when illusion spin her nette, i'm never where i wanna be"

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Enoch Von Clausewitz
Posts: 613
Joined: Sat Jun 11, 2022 5:17 am

Re: Horse Racing

#230

Post by Enoch Von Clausewitz »

Enoch Von Clausewitz wrote: Sat Feb 04, 2023 10:57 am

Code: Select all

had a glance at 12.40 Lingfield, and i'll try to find one or (no more than) two picks for that one; unless it's too tricky. 1m 5f is the trip, so likely there be some angles as far as horses going up/down in trip/grade etc,, looks like one that has attracted punters' attention, as, even at this early stage, most of the field are either coming in, or going out in price
had a quick once over glance at them all

12.40 Lingfield

been able to give four or five of them claims - even then something else could win: one was the jolly of G Moore's, Capricorn Prince, the ~10/3 fav; who's a CD winner from March of last year - albeit in a slowish time, but overall profile and price is enough to put one off, imho

pen landed on two:

MURHIB 16/1 EW ,, is 'ancient' at 11yo, but won this two years ago (altho 9 aint a big age at this lowly level) ; and is on the drift, but is well drawn (lowest of all in box 1) , and Mrs Richards' Sea The Stars gelding shows he still retains some ability as has only been beaten ~20lgths or so in total out of his last 5 races, with all of them at similar trips/surfaces/grades, and that's good enough pour moi

2nd pick is ANISOPTERA 15/2 EW. this one, unlike t'other pick has seen some early coin. goes well at the course, and can boast a win over further, as seen when winning over further at the 2m distance in Nov '20, and ran a good race recently enough at the course when finishing second over ~1f shorter at the course two runs back; will hope he's held up from his box 8 draw.

no strong fancies today, so no "Nap" or "NB" picks, and if i can't find owt else, i'm relatively happy with me choices.

gluck :)
no joy there; Ryan/Gary Moore fav wins

Anisoptera 5th - went wide; not one for notebook at dat craic... Murhib about 10th
"when illusion spin her nette, i'm never where i wanna be"

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Enoch Von Clausewitz
Posts: 613
Joined: Sat Jun 11, 2022 5:17 am

Re: Horse Racing

#231

Post by Enoch Von Clausewitz »

hopeful outsider time

Kempton 5.30 FAST FLO 25/1 EW
"when illusion spin her nette, i'm never where i wanna be"

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Enoch Von Clausewitz
Posts: 613
Joined: Sat Jun 11, 2022 5:17 am

Re: Horse Racing

#232

Post by Enoch Von Clausewitz »

Enoch Von Clausewitz wrote: Sat Feb 04, 2023 10:26 am Sandown 1.45

in a race that seems to be partly named after last year's winner, and topweight here, Dolos ~10/3 joint/2nd fav; the pen landed on last year's 2nd, and one what came third lto over ~CD (just a few yards diff - for some reason) , FRERO BANBOU 7/1 WIN and/or EW

horse only has two wins, but one of those is a ~CD win from March '21,,, horse goes well at course, likes different kinds of ground and is competitively priced. hoping he gives a good account, and at least looks like having a winning chance at some stage here.

race looks wide open, and i can't honestly rule (not that i'd be right anyway :mrgreen: ) any of them out, so one agin t'field will do me - the pick is on the drift (out to ~7s from ~6s) , but drifts don't bother me (not that it's much of a drift, but anyhow)

had a glance at 12.40 Lingfield, and i'll try to find one or (no more than) two picks for that one; unless it's too tricky. 1m 5f is the trip, so likely there be some angles as far as horses going up/down in trip/grade etc,, looks like one that has attracted punters' attention, as, even at this early stage, most of the field are either coming in, or going out in price

:)
:( not even placed - 4th Frero Banbou

nt good so far
"when illusion spin her nette, i'm never where i wanna be"

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Enoch Von Clausewitz
Posts: 613
Joined: Sat Jun 11, 2022 5:17 am

Re: Horse Racing

#233

Post by Enoch Von Clausewitz »

Enoch Von Clausewitz wrote: Sat Feb 04, 2023 12:22 pm 2.03 Musselburgh

nigh on 4m this race, so is a veritable "two fag" race, this "Edinburgh National"

have a rake of picks here and i'm almost embarrassed for having that amount :lol:

ones i dismissed are: those i deemed #may be unsuited by the long distance, and #those that may prefer softer going (good to Soft - Good in places is t'given Going description)

#a race over ~4m, so many here wouldn't have tackled this distance too often, if at all, so merely guessing as to the ones what can be ruled out.

hopefully these picks have all got strong/reasonable claims; and i give meself a 50/50 chance of catching winner.

no write-up on them, but here be the picks:

SLIPWAY 4/1 WIN

MIGHTY THUNDER 40/1 EW

THE WOLF 15/2 EW

TIDE TIMES 14/1 EW

THE FERRY MASTER 14/1 EW

MAGNA SAM 35/1 EW

ones towards top of betting i'm considering laying for five places (for ~evs, if i can) are: Truckers Lodge 15/2 and Doyen Breed 15/2.. am not seeing why they're so short, but dat's only me :lol:

be annoyed if @Flower Of Scotland ~6/1 wins, as i can't completely rule him out, but he might want softer, perhaps?

think last year's winner Captain Cattistock 17/2 has too much weight


damn these "National" type races - i do go mad with the amt of picks in dem :? :( :shock: :mrgreen:

Code: Select all

[b]SLIPWAY [/b]4/1 WIN

[b]MIGHTY THUNDER[/b] 40/1 EW

[b]THE WOLF [/b]15/2 EW

[b]TIDE TIMES [/b]14/1 EW

[b]THE FERRY MASTER[/b] 14/1 EW

[b]MAGNA SAM [/b]35/1 EW

:( just the one placer there
"when illusion spin her nette, i'm never where i wanna be"

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Enoch Von Clausewitz
Posts: 613
Joined: Sat Jun 11, 2022 5:17 am

Re: Horse Racing

#234

Post by Enoch Von Clausewitz »

Enoch Von Clausewitz wrote: Sat Feb 04, 2023 2:17 pm

Code: Select all

[b]SLIPWAY [/b]4/1 WIN

[b]MIGHTY THUNDER[/b] 40/1 EW

[b]THE WOLF [/b]15/2 EW

[b]TIDE TIMES [/b]14/1 EW

[b]THE FERRY MASTER[/b] 14/1 EW

[b]MAGNA SAM [/b]35/1 EW

:( just the one placer there
but thank fq he were also a WINNNNNNNNA - hup MAGNA SAM!!!! And young Alex Edwards :D
"when illusion spin her nette, i'm never where i wanna be"

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Enoch Von Clausewitz
Posts: 613
Joined: Sat Jun 11, 2022 5:17 am

Re: Horse Racing

#235

Post by Enoch Von Clausewitz »

4.10 Leopardstown

Fils d'Oudairies ~11/4

goes chasing today = good. punted on = also good :)

7 goes over the larger obstacles; just the one win,, seems a suspect jumpa to me - might even fall.. Going is "Yielding" ,,, might could be he either wants a longer trip or softer going, or both ! ;)

chanced 4-place lay @ ~4/6

g'luck
"when illusion spin her nette, i'm never where i wanna be"

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Enoch Von Clausewitz
Posts: 613
Joined: Sat Jun 11, 2022 5:17 am

Re: Horse Racing

#236

Post by Enoch Von Clausewitz »

in same race: 4.10 Leopardstown i'll chance multiple course winner, who's dropping down to a more suitable distance, and should prefer the better going than what he's been racing on recently, and that is A WAVE OF THE SEA 5/1 WIN, who's won this renewal the last twice

interesting is that JP's regular jock goes on his other horse Get My Drift ~9/2, but not reading anything into that, as both are trained by separate trainers: Joey trains the pick, and has a 7lb claimer atop, whereas 'Mouse' trains the Mark Walsh partnered one

gluck all what's still puntin' , if anyone at all :)
"when illusion spin her nette, i'm never where i wanna be"

'Cardmarker , CrossDresser , Awarenesss Raiser & Freelance Disabuser' <all rights reserved>
Enoch Von Clausewitz
Posts: 613
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Re: Horse Racing

#237

Post by Enoch Von Clausewitz »

Enoch Von Clausewitz wrote: Sat Feb 04, 2023 8:43 am no joy yesterday

Lingfield 3.36 ONE STEP BEYOND 5/1 WIN

In a race where a few have never even won a race, and many of the rest have never won as far as 10fs; at least One Step Beyond is a CD winner. 5/1 is a fair price

GOLDEN DOVE 12/1 EW

6/1 in the paper this one, and that looked about right, altho wouldn't have been overly tempted at that price, but the 5yo mare aint been beat far in her second and third last outings, which were both over course and distance. too big not to back is le reasonage here.

Early Morning Dew ~5/2 is a reasonably lightly raced dual purpose 6yo with 18 runs to his name in total. having just his second run for his current trainer Suzi Best, and came a relatively unlucky second lto at Kempton - which looked his best form to date. that said, it was over a furlong further than today's trip, and on the Standard/Slow going at Kempton. Not for me, even at the 9/2 paper odds. ye can back him if ye want, but i'll leave off.

onto the jolly; Nasim, the on the drift 2/1 fav has three wins over 1m to his 4yo name. mainly races prominently, but his lto win over a mile at Chelmsford saw him held up; and it was not dissimilar tactics utilised the time previous when he finished a close enough 5th over a mile at Southwell. has never went overly close on the three occasions he's ran north of a mile, so is unproven at the trip. that said, he is plummeting in the ratings (down to 67 - from a high of 83 around the middle of last year when with Andrew Balding) , and he hit the line hard when gaining his lto win. verdict: has an extra 2fs to contend with, and on a different track, so am not overly worried about this jolly.


8.30 Kempton CHENG GONG 7/1 EW

gave this one a mention on here when looking at this race a couple of days ago. win was the recommendation when i figured him (going on the probable sp, which had him at 5s) to be a slightly shorter price, but just a little too big to not back each way, imo.

mentioned another horse in that post also:

https://www.gubu.ie/posting.php?mode=re ... 54#pr42384

that horse was Overstate. he was gonna be a second pick, if operating at or around (or bigger :lol: ) the predicted 16/1 vicinity. was 10/1 earlier, and is now generally a best-priced 9/1 shot. can't be having him at anything even close to single figures, as he's never won beyond 1.5m, and never raced north of 14fs (1m. 6f.)

just the one pick here in lucky last

prices look favourable, so will chance each way double with One Step Beyond and Cheng Gong

g'l

EDIT Golden Dove is now around 10/1 gen for that 3.36 Lingfield. humbug to prices changing when ye're writing out post :D :cry: :cry: :oops:

Code: Select all

Lingfield  3.36 [b]ONE STEP BEYOND[/b] 5/1 WIN

In a race where a few have never even won a race, and many of the rest have never won as far as 10fs; at least One Step Beyond is a CD winner.  5/1 is a fair price

[b]GOLDEN DOVE[/b] 12/1 EW

6/1 in the paper this one, and that looked about right, altho wouldn't have been overly tempted at that price, but the 5yo mare aint been beat far in her second and third last outings, which were both over course and distance. [i] too big not to back[/i] is le reasonage here.
:D Cha Ching :D One Step Beyond WINS ! et le second pick Golden Dove places third :)

me happy
"when illusion spin her nette, i'm never where i wanna be"

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Enoch Von Clausewitz
Posts: 613
Joined: Sat Jun 11, 2022 5:17 am

Re: Horse Racing

#238

Post by Enoch Von Clausewitz »

Enoch Von Clausewitz wrote: Sat Feb 04, 2023 3:12 pm in same race: 4.10 Leopardstown i'll chance multiple course winner, who's dropping down to a more suitable distance, and should prefer the better going than what he's been racing on recently, and that is A WAVE OF THE SEA 5/1 WIN, who's won this renewal the last twice

interesting is that JP's regular jock goes on his other horse Get My Drift ~9/2, but not reading anything into that, as both are trained by separate trainers: Joey trains the pick, and has a 7lb claimer atop, whereas 'Mouse' trains the Mark Walsh partnered one

gluck all what's still puntin' , if anyone at all :)
ran a good race; a little blunder at the last, but probably wouldn't have won anyway,, finished about third, I think, the pick, A Wave Of The Sea
Last edited by Enoch Von Clausewitz on Sat Feb 04, 2023 4:21 pm, edited 1 time in total.
"when illusion spin her nette, i'm never where i wanna be"

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Enoch Von Clausewitz
Posts: 613
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Re: Horse Racing

#239

Post by Enoch Von Clausewitz »

Enoch Von Clausewitz wrote: Sat Feb 04, 2023 4:17 pm ran a good race; a little blunder at the last, but probably wouldn't have won anyway,, finished about third, I think, the pick, A Wave Of The Sea
"when illusion spin her nette, i'm never where i wanna be"

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Enoch Von Clausewitz
Posts: 613
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Re: Horse Racing

#240

Post by Enoch Von Clausewitz »

6.30 Kempton

wide open and interesting race imo. think Jamie Osborne's jolly All Dunn ~2/1 should go well. some in this are having their first h'cap runs, so i'll go for summat at a big price:

SUMAC ~16s EW is drifting, but has a chance on form if staying the 7f trip here, and i think he will

gl
"when illusion spin her nette, i'm never where i wanna be"

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Enoch Von Clausewitz
Posts: 613
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Re: Horse Racing

#241

Post by Enoch Von Clausewitz »

in same race, 6.30K, i see that the J Fanshawe/D Muscutt (or "Muscat" if ye're 'ayley Moore :mrgreen: ) sends out the well-punted on, and second fav Annie Law ~11/4. first run in h'cap, and impossible to make a case for those types - given that they normally finish a deal off the winner in Maiden/Novice Stakes company; and this one is no exception..

anyroad, looks a decent enough field here, and it's not how far the selection finished behind winner in her three runs that peeks me intarest 'ere; nope, it's 'ye breeding' what has me wanting to oppose daughter of Havana Grey for this Class6,,

,,,,,,, I think them Havana Grey's are suspect at this trip (7furlongs) , and, as well as her skimpy looking price, and this being a deep enough renewal for the grade, oi fink Annie Law is a decent pick as far as place-lays goes

3-place lay @ ~5/6 & 4-place lay @ ~1/2 to bolster today's pro fits a smidge :)
"when illusion spin her nette, i'm never where i wanna be"

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Enoch Von Clausewitz
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Re: Horse Racing

#242

Post by Enoch Von Clausewitz »

8.00 Kempton

Arab Cinder ~9/4 is being supported here; she's on her third trainer, and has previously ran well at the course - when finishing 2nd over ~1m4f at here Kempton on her latest run, and also the last for her previous trainer..

negatives: 100+ days layoff, and today's trip is 1furlong shorter than that Oct '22 course second..

enough green shoots as far as her being a place-lay contender, goes

chanced 3-place lay @ ~ 10/11 and 4-place lay @ ~ 1/2


in same race, and i don't really know why, as five or six of the field have far more obvious claims on form shown; but race is too competitive to go with a shorty, and Frank (or Jamie to everybody else :D ) takes mount for first time; horse has course winning form - over a deal shorter, but ne'ermind,, i'll chance small and very speculative each way on SID'S ANNIE @ 12/1

g'l
"when illusion spin her nette, i'm never where i wanna be"

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Enoch Von Clausewitz
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Re: Horse Racing

#243

Post by Enoch Von Clausewitz »

Enoch Von Clausewitz wrote: Sat Feb 04, 2023 1:45 pm hopeful outsider time

Kempton 5.30 FAST FLO 25/1 EW
4th (again) Fast Flo - almost collected place part there, but she was ran out of places last ~50yds :(
"when illusion spin her nette, i'm never where i wanna be"

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Enoch Von Clausewitz
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Re: Horse Racing

#244

Post by Enoch Von Clausewitz »

7.30 Kempton

ONE MORE OLLY 25s EW speculative pick this in yet another wide open looking race

chance four-place lay on skinny ~7/4 fav Ignac Lamar @ ~ 3/10 ,, very short atc this well supported fav, what might be better on the Tapeta surface - as opposed to the Poly; am hoping the 6f trip at the course here will be a bit sharp for Millman's (shrewd as he is :lol: ) inmate

could back five here, so more 'green shoots' as far as the favourite getting turned over here, goes


7.00 Kempton DIOCLES OF ROME 15/2 EW ,, CD winner to go well off topweight, and give Laura Pearson a second winner since her comeback

gl
"when illusion spin her nette, i'm never where i wanna be"

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Enoch Von Clausewitz
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Re: Horse Racing

#245

Post by Enoch Von Clausewitz »

Enoch Von Clausewitz wrote: Sat Feb 04, 2023 4:34 pm 6.30 Kempton

wide open and interesting race imo. think Jamie Osborne's jolly All Dunn ~2/1 should go well. some in this are having their first h'cap runs, so i'll go for summat at a big price:

SUMAC ~16s EW is drifting, but has a chance on form if staying the 7f trip here, and i think he will

gl
no good Sumac
"when illusion spin her nette, i'm never where i wanna be"

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Enoch Von Clausewitz
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Re: Horse Racing

#246

Post by Enoch Von Clausewitz »

Enoch Von Clausewitz wrote: Sat Feb 04, 2023 4:51 pm in same race, 6.30K, i see that the J Fanshawe/D Muscutt (or "Muscat" if ye're 'ayley Moore :mrgreen: ) sends out the well-punted on, and second fav Annie Law ~11/4. first run in h'cap, and impossible to make a case for those types - given that they normally finish a deal off the winner in Maiden/Novice Stakes company; and this one is no exception..

anyroad, looks a decent enough field here, and it's not how far the selection finished behind winner in her three runs that peeks me intarest 'ere; nope, it's 'ye breeding' what has me wanting to oppose daughter of Havana Grey for this Class6,,

,,,,,,, I think them Havana Grey's are suspect at this trip (7furlongs) , and, as well as her skimpy looking price, and this being a deep enough renewal for the grade, oi fink Annie Law is a decent pick as far as place-lays goes

3-place lay @ ~5/6 & 4-place lay @ ~1/2 to bolster today's pro fits a smidge :)
rubbish :( Annie Law only goes and wins - fekkit anyway :cry:
"when illusion spin her nette, i'm never where i wanna be"

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Enoch Von Clausewitz
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Re: Horse Racing

#247

Post by Enoch Von Clausewitz »

Enoch Von Clausewitz wrote: Sat Feb 04, 2023 6:34 pm 7.30 Kempton

ONE MORE OLLY 25s EW speculative pick this in yet another wide open looking race

chance four-place lay on skinny ~7/4 fav Ignac Lamar @ ~ 3/10 ,, very short atc this well supported fav, what might be better on the Tapeta surface - as opposed to the Poly; am hoping the 6f trip at the course here will be a bit sharp for Millman's (shrewd as he is :lol: ) inmate

could back five here, so more 'green shoots' as far as the favourite getting turned over here, goes


7.00 Kempton DIOCLES OF ROME 15/2 EW ,, CD winner to go well off topweight, and give Laura Pearson a second winner since her comeback

gl

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7.00 Kempton [b]DIOCLES OF ROME[/b] 15/2  EW ,,  CD winner to go well off topweight, and give Laura Pearson a second winner since her comeback
not today - was out at back of telly, and stayed there :x :roll:
"when illusion spin her nette, i'm never where i wanna be"

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Re: Horse Racing

#248

Post by Enoch Von Clausewitz »

tomorrow Sunday 5th Feb

4.10 Leopardstown

Gaelic Warrior is ~2/1 fav and will likely take a lot of beating here,, can't fear just one, and some books are going five places here..

some that might make the frame:

ANNA BUNINA 33/1, TAX FOR MAX 9/1 , EFFERNOCK FIZZ 25/1 , MAN O WORK 14/1 , AN MHI 14/1 & NIBIRU 25/1

two miles over the sticks on good or close to good ground (Yielding atm, which is like good to soft, so that'll do) should suit all or most of the above

likely back a few of these meself
"when illusion spin her nette, i'm never where i wanna be"

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Re: Horse Racing

#249

Post by Enoch Von Clausewitz »

Enoch Von Clausewitz wrote: Sat Feb 04, 2023 8:43 am no joy yesterday

Lingfield 3.36 ONE STEP BEYOND 5/1 WIN

In a race where a few have never even won a race, and many of the rest have never won as far as 10fs; at least One Step Beyond is a CD winner. 5/1 is a fair price

GOLDEN DOVE 12/1 EW

6/1 in the paper this one, and that looked about right, altho wouldn't have been overly tempted at that price, but the 5yo mare aint been beat far in her second and third last outings, which were both over course and distance. too big not to back is le reasonage here.

Early Morning Dew ~5/2 is a reasonably lightly raced dual purpose 6yo with 18 runs to his name in total. having just his second run for his current trainer Suzi Best, and came a relatively unlucky second lto at Kempton - which looked his best form to date. that said, it was over a furlong further than today's trip, and on the Standard/Slow going at Kempton. Not for me, even at the 9/2 paper odds. ye can back him if ye want, but i'll leave off.

onto the jolly; Nasim, the on the drift 2/1 fav has three wins over 1m to his 4yo name. mainly races prominently, but his lto win over a mile at Chelmsford saw him held up; and it was not dissimilar tactics utilised the time previous when he finished a close enough 5th over a mile at Southwell. has never went overly close on the three occasions he's ran north of a mile, so is unproven at the trip. that said, he is plummeting in the ratings (down to 67 - from a high of 83 around the middle of last year when with Andrew Balding) , and he hit the line hard when gaining his lto win. verdict: has an extra 2fs to contend with, and on a different track, so am not overly worried about this jolly.


8.30 Kempton CHENG GONG 7/1 EW

gave this one a mention on here when looking at this race a couple of days ago. win was the recommendation when i figured him (going on the probable sp, which had him at 5s) to be a slightly shorter price, but just a little too big to not back each way, imo.

mentioned another horse in that post also:

https://www.gubu.ie/posting.php?mode=re ... 54#pr42384

that horse was Overstate. he was gonna be a second pick, if operating at or around (or bigger :lol: ) the predicted 16/1 vicinity. was 10/1 earlier, and is now generally a best-priced 9/1 shot. can't be having him at anything even close to single figures, as he's never won beyond 1.5m, and never raced north of 14fs (1m. 6f.)

just the one pick here in lucky last

prices look favourable, so will chance each way double with One Step Beyond and Cheng Gong

g'l

EDIT Golden Dove is now around 10/1 gen for that 3.36 Lingfield. humbug to prices changing when ye're writing out post :D :cry: :cry: :oops:

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8.30 Kempton  [b]CHENG GONG [/b]7/1 EW

gave this one a mention on here when looking at this race a couple of days ago.  win was the recommendation when i figured him (going on the probable sp, which had him at 5s) to be a slightly shorter price, but just a little too big to [i]not[/i] back each way, imo.

mentioned another horse in that post also:

https://www.gubu.ie/posting.php?mode=reply&f=12&t=354#pr42384

that horse was Overstate.  he was gonna be a second pick, if operating at or around (or bigger  :lol: ) the predicted 16/1 vicinity.  was 10/1 earlier, and is now generally a best-priced 9/1 shot.  can't be having him at anything even close to single figures, as he's never won beyond 1.5m, and never raced north of 14fs (1m. 6f.) 

just the one pick here in lucky last

prices look favourable, so will chance [b]each way double[/b] with One Step Beyond and Cheng Gong
Overstate beats Cheng Gong :(

there goes me double :cry: :lol:

me put off Overstate on account of price, but he laughs at opposition and wins as a massive gambled on 11/4 fav :shock:
"when illusion spin her nette, i'm never where i wanna be"

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Re: Horse Racing

#250

Post by Enoch Von Clausewitz »

looking forwards

Monday 6th Feb

7.00 Wolves

Tothenines ~10/1 is going the right way, and can make his presence felt upped in trip to the extended mile here,, has decent draw in box 3

Masqool ~10/1 is also worthy of consideration in an open looking race; with a few course and distance winners in lineup that can complete the course in a fast time. drawn in box 6, will hope Duggie can get this one held up early,, has been to the fore in recent races - without any success,, needs to come from behind imo

Abnaa ~7/2 aint never won beyond a mile, and his poor draw in box 13 surely makes him look a potential place-lay(s) job

dem's me final thoughts on hyah 2day :)

g'nite
"when illusion spin her nette, i'm never where i wanna be"

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