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Enoch Von Clausewitz
Posts: 580
Joined: Sat Jun 11, 2022 5:17 am

Re: Horse Racing

#151

Post by Enoch Von Clausewitz »

Thursday 5th Jan '23

Ffos Las

1.00

Going is heavy here. A lot of these novices may be capable of acting on it, but they're lightly raced and not a helluva lot of form in t'book. I think the 1/1 fav Mrs Grimley could be vulnerable here. She's got decent rating from a few good runs; but none of them from on soft, or on heavy going. Could be a lay bet here that one.

two win picks:

HELENN CLERMONT 5/2 , KYM EYRE 9/1

Chelmsford

5.30

A 'Hands And Heels' Apprentice Handicap this.

Two picks agin the field and I'm going win on them:

PORFIN 2/1 , EL HOMBRE 11/2


Wolverhampton

1.45

Only a four horse race this, and it's over 5furlongs. Sergeant Pep is 1/6 fav and he's travelled strongly from the front over his two previous races. He's gotten a second and first position from them two 6furlong runs - both here at Wolves. Possibly vulnerable over this shorter trip?

By my calculations, it looks as tho three of the four are likely leaders here; and it could well be that Sergeant Pep takes a tow into this race from either My Genghis or Holly Blackmore, and ends up winning easy as. Or maybe it don't matter how race pans out and the favourite wins regardless. Still, I'd rather be against jolly, and might try a win lay on him

Anyhow, I'm going to give the blinkered KEEP IT HUSH 8/1 a squeak here on her second ever outing. She came a respectable 4th lto on only her first run, which was at Newcastle, and may not to improve much to go close here.

gluck
"when illusion spin her nette, i'm never where i wanna be"

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Enoch Von Clausewitz
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Re: Horse Racing

#152

Post by Enoch Von Clausewitz »

Enoch Von Clausewitz wrote: Thu Jan 05, 2023 8:54 am Thursday 5th Jan '23

Ffos Las

1.00

Going is heavy here. A lot of these novices may be capable of acting on it, but they're lightly raced and not a helluva lot of form in t'book. I think the 1/1 fav Mrs Grimley could be vulnerable here. She's got decent rating from a few good runs; but none of them from on soft, or on heavy going. Could be a lay bet here that one.

two win picks:

HELENN CLERMONT 5/2 , KYM EYRE 9/1

Chelmsford

5.30

A 'Hands And Heels' Apprentice Handicap this.

Two picks agin the field and I'm going win on them:

PORFIN 2/1 , EL HOMBRE 11/2


Wolverhampton

1.45

Only a four horse race this, and it's over 5furlongs. Sergeant Pep is 1/6 fav and he's travelled strongly from the front over his two previous races. He's gotten a second and first position from them two 6furlong runs - both here at Wolves. Possibly vulnerable over this shorter trip?

By my calculations, it looks as tho three of the four are likely leaders here; and it could well be that Sergeant Pep takes a tow into this race from either My Genghis or Holly Blackmore, and ends up winning easy as. Or maybe it don't matter how race pans out and the favourite wins regardless. Still, I'd rather be against jolly, and might try a win lay on him

Anyhow, I'm going to give the blinkered KEEP IT HUSH 8/1 a squeak here on her second ever outing. She came a respectable 4th lto on only her first run, which was at Newcastle, and may not to improve much to go close here.

gluck
El Hombre wins = small profit



Sunday 8th Jan


2.20 Naas

Should be a good race this, or what the sophistacated knowledgeable racy folk call an 'informative one'. no real clue me, so will chance win on jolly GRANGECLARE WEST 13/8 & each way on JP's DAWN RISING 8/1. mebbe a reverse forecast too

1.10 Chepstow

the going is soft - heavy, and SARCEAUX 15/2 has some decent CD form on the heavy going, when coming second in last year's renewal. price looks resonableable. will go each way on Sarceaux

glucjhjk
"when illusion spin her nette, i'm never where i wanna be"

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Enoch Von Clausewitz
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Re: Horse Racing

#153

Post by Enoch Von Clausewitz »

^^^^^

no joy today - just a place from Dawn Rising Naas 2.20


one for tomorrow:


Monday 9th January


6.30 Wolverhampton


MUST CATCH UP 80/1 EW

hopeful each way outsider this one with the first-time tonguestrap on, for to hopefully outrun her odds. Marcus Tregoning's 3yo ran a poor race lto over course and distance on what was her second ever run. She had a poor enough draw that day, drifted like a barge in the betting, pulled hard early on, and weakened midway during the race, so no surprise she finished well down the field

she was 14s in the morning that day, so not a huge price atc. must have been deemed to have had a reasonable chance by the layers for that particular race.

it looks a hard race for finding winner in, with the top three in the betting trading at ~ 11/8 , and ~ 9/4 the two below the Kevin Ryan jolly in betting. selection looks generously priced here, and will hope she gets a decent break and travels well during race for to have a chance

gluck
"when illusion spin her nette, i'm never where i wanna be"

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Enoch Von Clausewitz
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Re: Horse Racing

#154

Post by Enoch Von Clausewitz »

each way outsiders

these one's bes very speculative :)

Taunton

1.55 FREDDY BOY 100/1

2.30 TELLAIRSUE 50/1
"when illusion spin her nette, i'm never where i wanna be"

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Enoch Von Clausewitz
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Re: Horse Racing

#155

Post by Enoch Von Clausewitz »

Enoch Von Clausewitz wrote: Mon Jan 09, 2023 8:16 am each way outsiders

these one's bes very speculative :)

Taunton

1.55 FREDDY BOY 100/1

2.30 TELLAIRSUE 50/1
unsurprisingly, no joy with those two :) :cry:


further afield

Wednesday 11th January

Lingfield

1.15 HUL AH BAH LOO Win

has been knocking on t'door at the course recently, insofar as getting his 4yo noggin in front. am hoping he'll be close to pace and prove good enough here. the 5/1 (very early 8-) ) paper price looks fair generous, and at around or about those odds, i'll chance a win on the former Irish trained beest after 14 unsuccessful starts thus far.

Paper fav Free Solo is quoted as a 7/4 shot, and can go close, but has a lot of weight to carry. rather be against at those odds

gluck

EDIT Uno more pick at Langers on Wens dee :)

12.45 Lingfield

Very trappy race; cases can be made for a good few, if not all of the seven that are due to go to post. Some don't look the best of travellers, and maybe they'll run keen, all bunched up together. anyhow, RHUBARB BIKINI Win is back down in trip, and looks a possible leader here. I feel he needs to lead to have a chance, but at 14s on the provisional prices, i think this outsider has decent claims 'ere

:)
"when illusion spin her nette, i'm never where i wanna be"

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Enoch Von Clausewitz
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Re: Horse Racing

#156

Post by Enoch Von Clausewitz »

back 2 today

6.00 Wolver

SAORLA 11/2 Win

Algheed - 3-place lay @ approx 4/9 ,, hoping the mare won't be good enuf today

gd luck
"when illusion spin her nette, i'm never where i wanna be"

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Enoch Von Clausewitz
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Re: Horse Racing

#157

Post by Enoch Von Clausewitz »

Enoch Von Clausewitz wrote: Mon Jan 09, 2023 5:41 pm back 2 today

6.00 Wolver

SAORLA 11/2 Win

Algheed - 3-place lay @ approx 4/9 ,, hoping the mare won't be good enuf today

gd luck
nothing there as Algheed wins :oops:
"when illusion spin her nette, i'm never where i wanna be"

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Enoch Von Clausewitz
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Re: Horse Racing

#158

Post by Enoch Von Clausewitz »

7.30 Wolves LIHOU 2/1 Win

gd nite :)
"when illusion spin her nette, i'm never where i wanna be"

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Enoch Von Clausewitz
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Re: Horse Racing

#159

Post by Enoch Von Clausewitz »

Tuesday 10th January

Doncaster

12.15 BIRD ON THE WIRE 5/1

12.45 STORMINHOME 5/1


EW double
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Enoch Von Clausewitz
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Re: Horse Racing

#160

Post by Enoch Von Clausewitz »

Enoch Von Clausewitz wrote: Mon Jan 09, 2023 6:24 pm 7.30 Wolves LIHOU 2/1 Win

gd nite :)
winner there, about time !

chance two in last

8.30

MISS BLUEBELLE 4s Win

BAY DREAM BELIEVER 22/1 EW
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Enoch Von Clausewitz
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Re: Horse Racing

#161

Post by Enoch Von Clausewitz »

^^
no good :shock:
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Enoch Von Clausewitz
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Re: Horse Racing

#162

Post by Enoch Von Clausewitz »

Enoch Von Clausewitz wrote: Mon Jan 09, 2023 8:10 pm Tuesday 10th January

Doncaster

12.15 BIRD ON THE WIRE 5/1

12.45 STORMINHOME 5/1


EW double
nothing there, Bird came nowhere, other one got third

6.00 Southwell

ALL ABOUT ALICE 11/1 EW NAP

ticks enough boxes,, Classified Stakes race, so very poor horses taking part. That said, selection ran a very poor race lto, but it's very easy to draw a line thru it as horse was badly hampered on the bend early on, which couldn't have helped.

gd luk
"when illusion spin her nette, i'm never where i wanna be"

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Enoch Von Clausewitz
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Re: Horse Racing

#163

Post by Enoch Von Clausewitz »

5.30 Southwell

a poor enough field for this Hands And Heels Apprentice race over five furlongs. Don't know how it'll pan out, but I think the drifting SIX O' HEARTS 22/1 has an each way squeak at prices. young jockey is unknown quantity tho

for some reason, there's been a massive plunge on Gunnerside (7/4 from 9/2 earlier) :? his recent AW form has been very poor, as indeed has his form been overall this last few months. has plenty of wins over the 5furlong trip but none on the All Weather tracks. On the flip side, most of his recent outings have been in higher grades than this, and he seems to be a smooth enough traveller [usually] which would be a help in a race like this. might try place lay on Gunnerside
"when illusion spin her nette, i'm never where i wanna be"

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Enoch Von Clausewitz
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Re: Horse Racing

#164

Post by Enoch Von Clausewitz »

Enoch Von Clausewitz wrote: Tue Jan 10, 2023 4:03 pm 5.30 Southwell

a poor enough field for this Hands And Heels Apprentice race over five furlongs. Don't know how it'll pan out, but I think the drifting SIX O' HEARTS 22/1 has an each way squeak at prices. young jockey is unknown quantity tho

for some reason, there's been a massive plunge on Gunnerside (7/4 from 9/2 earlier) :? his recent AW form has been very poor, as indeed has his form been overall this last few months. has plenty of wins over the 5furlong trip but none on the All Weather tracks. On the flip side, most of his recent outings have been in higher grades than this, and he seems to be a smooth enough traveller [usually] which would be a help in a race like this. might try place lay on Gunnerside

no good Six O' Hearts, only managed 7th
"when illusion spin her nette, i'm never where i wanna be"

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Enoch Von Clausewitz
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Re: Horse Racing

#165

Post by Enoch Von Clausewitz »

Enoch Von Clausewitz wrote: Mon Jan 09, 2023 4:41 pm unsurprisingly, no joy with those two :) :cry:


further afield

Wednesday 11th January

Lingfield

1.15 HUL AH BAH LOO Win

has been knocking on t'door at the course recently, insofar as getting his 4yo noggin in front. am hoping he'll be close to pace and prove good enough here. the 5/1 (very early 8-) ) paper price looks fair generous, and at around or about those odds, i'll chance a win on the former Irish trained beest after 14 unsuccessful starts thus far.

Paper fav Free Solo is quoted as a 7/4 shot, and can go close, but has a lot of weight to carry. rather be against at those odds

gluck

EDIT Uno more pick at Langers on Wens dee :)

12.45 Lingfield

Very trappy race; cases can be made for a good few, if not all of the seven that are due to go to post. Some don't look the best of travellers, and maybe they'll run keen, all bunched up together. anyhow, RHUBARB BIKINI Win is back down in trip, and looks a possible leader here. I feel he needs to lead to have a chance, but at 14s on the provisional prices, i think this outsider has decent claims 'ere

:)

No joy with either of those. Rhubard tries make all and fades around lst bend; Hul Ah was prolly too far back and never in real contention, but did gain from the back late on. would have chance if racing from closer to pace in another race. will chance him next few times he's out




No joy with either of those
"when illusion spin her nette, i'm never where i wanna be"

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Enoch Von Clausewitz
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Re: Horse Racing

#166

Post by Enoch Von Clausewitz »

Thursday 12th January '23

Newcastle

12.05

10/11 shot Quercus Robur sets a decent standard here. is very short, has plenty of weight and is stepping 1/2m down in trip from his lto win at the course. came 2nd the time before that over 2furlongs shorter than today's trip when beat a1 1/4lgths at Southwell in December. Is only four yrs old and those two most recent runs were his first for his latest trainer. could win today, but is too short for me. I think he likely wins, but not for me at his skimpy odds.

Hildenley 5/1 & Crystal Guard 7/1 both have claims of sorts, but I'd rather be against overall.

pen landed on #INTERNATIONAL LAW 20/1 who has an each way squeak, and looks a decent price, will do me here. Will go EW on INTERNATIONAL LAW @ 20s. might go win or e/w on selection w/o jolly also.


A few at Chelmsford

#5.30 COMPANY MINX 12/1 EW

6.00 VAUDEVILLIAN 7/1 EW , LITTLE HELEN 22/1 EW

6.30 EROSION RISK 9/4 WIN

#7.30 GIORGIO VASARI WIN

8.00 REBEL ANGEL 15/8 WIN

#may do an each way patent/trixie with dese free :lol:

and a happy birthday to @SportySpice (49) & @ZaynMalik (30) 2day :D Broad on radio could [a little bit ott for me, and 'sans' (as they say) much credibility on her part] "hardly believe [that] one of the Spice Girls is 49" . if Sporty's 49, then 'Aliiwell must be at least fiddy !! #1995werealongtimeago :mrgreen:

gluck
"when illusion spin her nette, i'm never where i wanna be"

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Enoch Von Clausewitz
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Re: Horse Racing

#167

Post by Enoch Von Clausewitz »

tomorrow Friday da Thirteeenth Jan '23

1.00 Huntingdon

can you hear the drums SERMANDO ?? :D

SERMANDO 11/2 EW goes in the first at Huntingdon, the 1 o'c there, and goes well over the course/distance. The nine year old came second lto at the course in a race over a slightly longer, and on good ground, trip than what he tackles tomorrow. he's also a course winner over that lto trip from three years ago. has also been tackling higher graded races in the main as of late, and tho he carries topweight, i expect him to go close.

In that same race, i'll go win only on the lightly raced 6yo NO NO TANGO 10/1, who may well benefit from step up in trip from the distances he's tackled in his 3 sole starts to date. Looks as tho he'll like both the soft ground and the distance. another one that would be no surprise to me should he prevail. 10s looks very big for No No Tango imo

Plenty of hossies go here, and both my picks have a lot of weight to carry; plus, it's a Conditional (apprentices in Jumps game) jockeys' race, so no surprise neither should both flop.

hopefully confident both go well - could do with a winner over here. no joy so far today

gluck
"when illusion spin her nette, i'm never where i wanna be"

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Enoch Von Clausewitz
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Re: Horse Racing

#168

Post by Enoch Von Clausewitz »

Enoch Von Clausewitz wrote: Thu Jan 12, 2023 8:31 am Thursday 12th January '23

Newcastle

12.05

10/11 shot Quercus Robur sets a decent standard here. is very short, has plenty of weight and is stepping 1/2m down in trip from his lto win at the course. came 2nd the time before that over 2furlongs shorter than today's trip when beat a1 1/4lgths at Southwell in December. Is only four yrs old and those two most recent runs were his first for his latest trainer. could win today, but is too short for me. I think he likely wins, but not for me at his skimpy odds.

Hildenley 5/1 & Crystal Guard 7/1 both have claims of sorts, but I'd rather be against overall.

pen landed on #INTERNATIONAL LAW 20/1 who has an each way squeak, and looks a decent price, will do me here. Will go EW on INTERNATIONAL LAW @ 20s. might go win or e/w on selection w/o jolly also.


A few at Chelmsford

#5.30 COMPANY MINX 12/1 EW

6.00 VAUDEVILLIAN 7/1 EW , LITTLE HELEN 22/1 EW

6.30 EROSION RISK 9/4 WIN

#7.30 GIORGIO VASARI WIN

8.00 REBEL ANGEL 15/8 WIN

#may do an each way patent/trixie with dese free :lol:

and a happy birthday to @SportySpice (49) & @ZaynMalik (30) 2day :D Broad on radio could [a little bit ott for me, and 'sans' (as they say) much credibility on her part] "hardly believe [that] one of the Spice Girls is 49" . if Sporty's 49, then 'Aliiwell must be at least fiddy !! #1995werealongtimeago :mrgreen:

gluck
nowt today, bar a place on Little Helen :( poor showing :|
"when illusion spin her nette, i'm never where i wanna be"

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Enoch Von Clausewitz
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Re: Horse Racing

#169

Post by Enoch Von Clausewitz »

12.40 Lingfield YOULLOVEMEWHENIWIN 13/2 WIN

has chance in open race for very poor horses. looks a fair price here
"when illusion spin her nette, i'm never where i wanna be"

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Re: Horse Racing

#170

Post by Enoch Von Clausewitz »

Place-lay hopefuls here

12.40 Lingfield LOTHIAN 2/1. Think 6fs is a bit too far. could be the best horse in the race, but price looks a bit short atm. am thinking Michael Attwater's 5yo may either try chase the pace and not stay, or be held up and not quite get there. will try a three-place-lay at around 1/2

3.45 Newcastle EHTEYAT 4/5 . Two runs for Stoute and two for "Buffy" Boughey. first three were poor, yet horse was somehow sent off as 6/4 fav lto prior to winning at Southwell over 1m6f. is down 1/2m in trip today in another Amateur race. not one that interests me as regards having a winning chance here - in a race where i'm scarce tempted to look at the field :lol: will chance a three-place-lay putting up 1/4 or shorter in hope.
"when illusion spin her nette, i'm never where i wanna be"

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Re: Horse Racing

#171

Post by Enoch Von Clausewitz »

12.50 Sedgefield

CIENCIENA 5/4 & HIDALGO DE L'ISLE 11/8 may be vulnerable either at the trip or on the softish ground, or both. thinking is neither have ran over this far over hurdles before, and neither, also, have been in a hurdles' race on proper soft ground. hope at least one can manage to fail to collect any win or place money.

looks a poor race, and, if both stay up, then i'd say both will finish in top four; but something or other may find one of 'em out

have went 3-place-lay on them both, at around the 1/3 - 3/10 price point

two each way hopes in same race:

BOOMSLANG 33/1 EW , CALEVADE EW 16/1

gluck
"when illusion spin her nette, i'm never where i wanna be"

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Re: Horse Racing

#172

Post by Enoch Von Clausewitz »

Saturday 14th Jan '23

Chelmsford

had a look at one race there

5.30 HANOVERIAN KING 12/1 EW & TWISTALINE 9/2 EW are two that i'll consider backing tomorrow.

TWISTALINE is a winner from around this time last year when winning on a similar surface over the same trip when winning first time out for Mick Appleby at Lingfield. hasn't won much since then (when mainly running on the Tapeta surface) altho she did run two good races over the extended mile at Wolves shortly after that Lingfield victory. has gone off (or opened up moreso) a lot shorter odds in recent times than what her form figures ought suggested; still think 9/2 is a biteeen short, but does have Hollie on top and horse may open up a bigger price yet. Looks a lot of pace on, and Twistaline can run a hold-up race on this type surface - to hopefully come late

HANOVERIAN KING is a winner from 1furlong shorter when winning over 7furlongs at the course last Sept. that was his sole win to date, and, barring that run, he's gotten no real form to speak of, but it's enough to make him of interest here. both the trainer and jockey are in form, and the Simon Pearce and David Probert duo also have a good strike-rate at the course

neither of these look great prices, but it is a bargain basement Classified Stakes race. may yet back 'em both win only, as that might be a better angle here.

Bawaader 7/4 paper fav sets the standard, but is not one to be too worried about imo. just the two wins to date, and his latest came lto when winning over the same 1mile trip; but that was on Standard/Slow going at Kempton and a similar Mickey Mouse affair, but he did win easy. Bawaader also has a recent Course/Distance third to his name - which came three runs back - but overall makes no appeal at t'prices. would want to be at least 9/4 to be of interest here

ALL ABOARD 10/1 for Mick Appleby (who also has Twistaline going here) is of interest on just his 2nd British run and only his 7th overall. would be a surprise winner without being a massive surprise. jockey Ali Rawlinson has also ridden one of the selections, Twistaline, previously. hard to fancy on form figures, and on his general overall form ats
Last edited by Enoch Von Clausewitz on Fri Jan 13, 2023 11:33 am, edited 1 time in total.
"when illusion spin her nette, i'm never where i wanna be"

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Re: Horse Racing

#173

Post by Enoch Von Clausewitz »

looking a little further afield; on Sunday BERNADINE is sure to have her supporters if she lines up in the 1.20 Southwell. was unlucky two runs back at Wolves, when she may well have finished a lot closer, or even won. followed that good showing up when running very well over a similar trip when coming second over 7furlongs at a different AW surface in Lingfield. will know more shortly when the decs are out
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Re: Horse Racing

#174

Post by Enoch Von Clausewitz »

Sunday 15th Jan

Sunday again, and a few that jumped off page at Kelso [before declarations are in]

Kelso

2.30 ARAMAX
3.00 ELVIS MAIL
3.30 LISLORAN
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Re: Horse Racing

#175

Post by Enoch Von Clausewitz »

Enoch Von Clausewitz wrote: Thu Jan 12, 2023 6:51 pm tomorrow Friday da Thirteeenth Jan '23

1.00 Huntingdon

can you hear the drums SERMANDO ?? :D

SERMANDO 11/2 EW goes in the first at Huntingdon, the 1 o'c there, and goes well over the course/distance. The nine year old came second lto at the course in a race over a slightly longer, and on good ground, trip than what he tackles tomorrow. he's also a course winner over that lto trip from three years ago. has also been tackling higher graded races in the main as of late, and tho he carries topweight, i expect him to go close.

In that same race, i'll go win only on the lightly raced 6yo NO NO TANGO 10/1, who may well benefit from step up in trip from the distances he's tackled in his 3 sole starts to date. Looks as tho he'll like both the soft ground and the distance. another one that would be no surprise to me should he prevail. 10s looks very big for No No Tango imo

Plenty of hossies go here, and both my picks have a lot of weight to carry; plus, it's a Conditional (apprentices in Jumps game) jockeys' race, so no surprise neither should both flop.

hopefully confident both go well - could do with a winner over here. no joy so far today

gluck
In same race: 1.00 Huntingdon, MONJULES is worth a win bet here, as he only needs to replicate his lto run at Sedgefield to go very close today. hard not to go win on Monjules when 4/1 is on offer

gluck
"when illusion spin her nette, i'm never where i wanna be"

'Cardmarker , CrossDresser , Awarenesss Raiser & Freelance Disabuser' <all rights reserved>
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