Horse Racing

[Enoch Von Clausewitz]

no joy in GC Chelty; GDC way too good - despite presence of loose horse in laste ~1/2m or so... fair play to him



backkde to baysickes



Dundalk - Standarde



8,20


Willie Martin's Jazzy Dancer ~ 13/8 - 7/4, is deservedde market leaderre here.... was a deal (~3s ) bigger early doors... hardde to see this one outta firstte three here, but too shortte to back , imo..... is likely leader here methinkes fromme tasty draw in box three,,,, can't see any otherre likely ones what could assume ye race-leaderre mantle here.... if had lookedde at this race lastte nightte, and horse were ~3/1, then me'd be <relatively > all over this as a backke to layye-in-run jobbe but oddes prohibitte that now.... ah well, as mentionedde on here afore, me has no study motivationne at 'nonce - poor me and poor any kernt whatte thinkkes me's on offerre !! #fukkem... ya wanna fightte, gette in ringge; cannae behave - get ta fookin coventry, kernnt!! #Godmademan #SCmade'emequalle; me concurrethhe.... farkin idiottes; fekk all brainne sells, thinkke can do whatte dey like.... someday, i'll likely (thru stone cold righteousness, OBVs ! ) disabuse em of thatte notion thru, eitherre sharppe or bluntte objectte... #NightFollowsDay

aqnyhow, pick here is Hogan's <one of two he has in ye race; t'otherre, ye 4yoF, Autumnal Breeze ~28s, has won before, and also sporttes f/t c/pcs ----nott for me, but i aintte ruling herre out) AMERICAN IN PARIS ~ 13/2 .... has two wins, but aint won since lastte July,, is former CD winner an' all.... hope is that the fewwe lbs she's droppedde in timesse recentte will aide her cause here... she's wonne off 56 (her 'mark' , ie 'handicap ratingge' ) on both occasions and is back down to a mark of 54...

.....has very moderate form since lastte win: until her lto run.... American In Paris came thirdde lto over shorterre trippe at the course, and she chasedde the pace thatte day - not somethingge she does every day anyhow, she seemedde to be runningge on a bit at the end, so lookes to me to be back to form... don't think it's overly generous to say this one could be potentially a 4/1 - 9/2 poke.. anyhowwe, on flippe side, thatte April '23 CD win was 3yo handicappe and in a race notte ranne in greatte time...

..... v a v, ''price'' , and whatte me considers 'fair' , is that owte from 11/2 and above is very fair price for AIP here; not sure aboutte each wayye : thinking is 13/2 is ~aboutte rightte

.... hope to gette at leastte a soliidde 'runfer' here from good draw in box two.... not takinge into account jockey bookings here, but app, S D Bowen(5) retains mountte, and that bodes well enuffe for me, 'green shooterage' wise

verdikt: AMERICAN IN PARIS 13/2 €2 WIN , €3 EW

g'lucke


can't make any kinda case for Jessie's fairly well backedde Net A Porter Queen ~ 14/1 .... has SFA on form, imo.... sire of thisse Harrington filly, Sioux Nation, has hadde 4 wins and 7 places from his lastte 23 runs; not bad at all ! p'happes that's la raison pour la supportte nott for me

the driftingge Hezahunk ~ 5/1 , ran his bestte race thus far lto.... yette to win afterre 19 <in total> runnes..... was mickey mouse Claimer he come 2nd that day in a race ran in not to badde a time.. todayye, as then, has good draw -boxxe 1- for chasing ye pace.... looks like might need 'scrubbing along' here; could be his undoingge as, this being better race, he may not be able to gette into a good rhythm... not for me.. looks nice price ats if ya fancies Ado's Fast Company geldingge... not backinge, but wouldn't putte anybody off going win onlee





g'lucke

[Enoch Von Clausewitz]

^^^^^^^^

nothingge doingge

look at Wolves.....


Tue, 19th March



Wolverhampton - Standard


5,30


LADY OF SPAIN ~ 5/4 WIN. was unfancied when winning easy as she likedde on debut in December over CD..... was drawn in box nine that day as well.... way she won looks like evens'd be value here..... still is a very shortte price tho.... the racedde ones here don't seem up to much and will go €5 win if available at evens or bigger...

Johnny G's King's Coronation ~ 4/1, is unracedde and sports a f/t tonguestrap here.... no doubt, if Lady Of Spain manages to stayye <for whatever reason> at a 'backable' price, say ~4/5 or therebouts; then, in that case me reckones ye pundittes will be makingge a big deal out o'Johnny G and his methoddes, v a v the utilization of headgear on fto ones and t'likes - so as to do theirre bestte to put punterres off what they believe to be ye likely winner >>>> ye fav
...... not thatte i've a clue on thatte score <ie how often he uses headgear on his charges...> ! Point is, me's thinking that #they (pundittes /presenters, etc) will be doingge all they can to put us off backingge a good looking shortie -but notte too shortte a shorty <this one at least> ie not 'skimpy' - for me 'short/y' and 'skimpy' , when it comes to prices, they <those aforementioned words> aint exactkly 'synonymous' ...... Howevs, if Lady Of Spain is in ye 'prohibitive' priced regionne, say 2/9, well then, ''she's just a stone cold certainty!' ....

#am leavingge out Chapman , Sanders , Mayor and "Sir" Bob Cooper here (all ATR presenters/on course pundittes) on accountte of me feel they know they onions / study the form, etc, etc,,,, likes of Apiafi and Lynch i'm thinking on here far as bshítting goes

.... point is they want folke to back shítty pricedde shorties, regardless of theirre winning claimes, imh

if i was looking for negatives here - far as her winningge claimes goes; and allowing for the fact that this is similar (same grade/class ; same course, same distance....) race as her lto one, they would be: <drawn in box 9 of 11 aint one here ; beinge as she was drawn 2nd widest that day, so being thirde widest here shouldn't make much of a difference>......

.........anyhow, there be '3' negatives (granted, they're minimal ones) here imo: 1. she's already won a <similar: pretty muche exact same> race, so perhaps they -connections- might not feel the need to have her win here...... And, 2.( bearingge in mind that both this race and her winninge one were both-sex race contesttes) She was drawn box nine on Decemberre 23rd, and on thatte day the horses drawn in boxes eitherre side, to wit, those drawnne in boxes 8 & 10 were both fillies.... however, in this race, the two drawn on eitherre side of her are male horses, albeitte they're geldingges.. 3. this a 'Restricted Rider' race and it's Raul Da Silva on boardde - who is capable pilot, and he didde partner her on thatte winningge day, so jockey not really a negative neitherre ....

.... methinkes, and i'm goingge by prices sette by ye "boffins" -one'd expectte them to know they stuffe far as price-setting goes- here, that you'd no be gettingge ripped orff backing her at 4/5... 8/11 don't seem ungenerous even,,, still, this poster is not backing Varian horse at shorter than even money

verdiktkt: Lady Of Spain €5WIN if evens or above

.... 'paper' has her as 5/4 shotte - me reckons that evens is both fair and value price here

........ my predictionne is : 'paper' is shining us on and thisse one goes off at 2s on , or shorterre




thatte's all

[Enoch Von Clausewitz]

looking at a fewwe for da morrow:

in meantime - oldie but goodie for thisse fine sunny morning





"i won't be satte here waitingge"

[Enoch Von Clausewitz]

Thu 21st March



Southwell - Standard


7,30


Catherine Chroi heads betting at ~13/8 and that looks aboutte rightte here.... she came 2nd lto on first run back in England when finishing a head behind Fircombe underre Mulrennan - who retains mountte here....

...... that were afterrre approx five month absence.. although it were different trackke that day, the horse does have #previous CD form from her last stint in Blighty.... horse was owned and trainedde by Iain Jardine then and is now back in his care as well as ownershippe; so that looks interesting, as horse hadde different ownerre and trainer when here in Eire.... horse has had quite a few different trainers in her time and has three wins in total to her name....

..... #the one <and last one before she changedde handdes> time she did run at the course was a CD tilt in Jan '23; that day saw her held up off pace and come an unlucky(ish) fourth as didn't really get the gaps in time... wasn't exactly unsupported then neitherre... all in all she looks mostte likely one here... thinkke she should be winning or at least going very close... paper has her as 13/8 shot; not backinge meselfe but if was recommending i'd say she be worth a puntthe at ~15/8 or above.....


....... reckonne this one could see a few 'Nap's belowwe ye racecardde in RP... anyhoo, try findde summat (or two ) at a price here for e/w / bette w/o purposes.....



Alfred Cove ~10/1 is drawn in box three.. does have one win, but looks a bit of a donkey tbf.. is a possible leader here but wouldn't be backingge this one with stolen money,,, as ye 'fyi' , horse currently has an entry for a similar race at Wolves on Saturday. verdikt: no chance here... not sayingge won't come placedde but,,,



Bluebells Boy ~10/1 also holds an entry in that 6,15 6f race at Wolves on Saturdayye.... if he has anything going for him far as making his presence felt here; well i aint seeing it... verdikt: leave off


Appleby's Fantasy Navigator ~ 7/2, holds next best chancesse accordingge to paper probable SP... has two wins to his name so not w/o ability.... has ran at the course three timesse in total, and at three different trips; them being -in order of their recency- over seven , five and six furlongs... Can make/try make excuses for those runs if ye wantte but i aint.. verdikt: there be far better 7/2 pokes to lose on in days, weeks and months upcomingge... don't lette it be on this lad.... verdikt: I can't see this one oblige, but if someone else can, then have at it.. no bet for me



LIL WADE ~ 7/1. relative to the rest of em this one is very lightly racedde... is yet to win after eight goes.. llooks like one that'll be heldde up here.... came 4th at the course lto over a furlongge shorterre from usual hold-up ride... might be staying on late at the end , might could even flounder in lastte furlong if looking like has winning prospects , might could come second to jolly even.... me, i think it eitherre wins or it don't, and don't care aboutte any otherre angles - as i aint seeing them/.... not much clue on price but 7s looks fine... guessing aboutte ~11/2 for win only; incapable of making guesse on e/w price..... thinkke if this lad don't do much in this race, Lil Wade mightte gette ye equipmentte/headgearre fittedde in future, perhappes, for to gi'e 'im live chances nxt go around mebbs verdikt: WIN only



My Boy Jack ~ 12/1. is decentte price,,,, .. is with third different trainer, same ownerre as when with Kevin De Foy - who lastte trainedde ye beast,,,,, has two wins in total...... both of those at Wolves and both over 6fs on usual 'Going' ,,,, is nowt from eight in total Southwell runs... horse's running style<and formme > suggestes that he can win from close to pace at Wolves; and is oft capable (w/o winninge) of running an okay race (usually over a furlongge furtherre tbf) of going well here at the course.... can see him beingge possibly held up here and running into a place at the endde (justte like when came 2nd last March under Spud - when with K P De Foy) .... Oisín's not atop here though.... on account of price this one's hardde to rule outte.... can't back em all... expectte some bs 'watchhe the market' drivel about this one.... notte for me - well, mebbe




Rebel Redemption ~ 14/1.. paper has this one as outsider of the eight here.... well outte of form this seven tiimesse winnerre,.... aint won in approx 2.5yrs.... all wins have come over the 6f trip bothe on the AW and on turf.... has won on similar surface/s when winning at Wolves and Newcastle, but is zero from seven at the course (many, in factte mostte if notte alle of those woulldv'e been on this Tapeta surface - think they changedde the AW 'Sand' sometime around 2021) so very hardde to fancy.... can possibly go well if somehow 'going' changes from current Standard descriptionne to 'Standard /slow' , p'haps, as has two CD placed efforts from Dec. '21 when going was on 'slow' side... verdikt: atm this one's eminently opposable... watch for going change mebbe? verdiktto: no bet




TRULIE GOOD ~ 15/2... in and outte formwise this one.. has one win from 16 total runs.. most of the mare's recent runs have been at the course over trippes variousse, and majority of those rruns have been most soundde indeedy well backedde on 2nd lastte start when winning over five furlongs at the course two runs back.. through luck or good judgement, this one was slow into stride and heldde up thatte daye.. also sportedde f/t visor to aide cause..... driftedde like a barge lto when coming 7th of 9 over Newcastle's six furlongge trippe... hard to speculate on this one's chances..... interestingly, it was Ali Rawlinson on boardde for the first time when this daughter of Heeraat got her maiden victory on penultimate runninge.. he's back atop now for just the second time (was partnered by Lewis Edmunds -who's ridden her more'n anyone else- then... ) worth a bette on jockey score alone; well sorta anyhoo verdikto: no real opinion on price/value: reckon 6s ish for winne and 8s for ew value.... EW and WIN w/o fav...







tf this only eight runner affaire as me'd be tempted, at least, to go perhappes with ew recommendations v a v : each way w/o jolly, but not really seeing much point/fun there; being as 8 minus 1 = 7 , & 7 runners = only 2 placesse..... prolly better off going place <insteadde of e/w without jolly; going win only w/o fav seems grand - to me anyhoo- only here if worried about fav> on any possible each way w/o pokes.... imo



..... anyhow, arter all thatte:

..... thinkke me'll change us mindde and do fav an' alle




FINAL VERDICT/S:


CATHERINE CHROI €4 WIN @ 13/8 and above.....

LIL WADE €4 WIN...

TRULIE GOOD €4 WIN , €2 WIN w/o favourite <Catherine Chroi> & €2 to come placedde - if all eightte line up -or are at leastte expectedde to- that is


Eh Vay Say's thought for the dayye: " there's a fine line between a 'great man' and a 'bollocks' "


some stone cold badasseridge !





"carousing the aisles"

g'l

[Enoch Von Clausewitz]

Thursday , 21st March 2024



Southwell - Standard


four pickes here; couldn't narrow it dahn any more



7.00



fair fewwe here

going on 'paper' prices here: nt sure, but thinkke some books going 7/2 on UD......


URBAN DANDY ~ 5/1. came 2nd lto over course and distance.... was heldde up in mid-div then, and didn't have besta lucke when coming from outta boxxe ten.... was a bit unlucky then as didn't really gette splittes when needed... drawn in box eight here, and that should be okay.... green shooterage wise: 1. that were horse's first ever go at seven furlongges - having been campaignedde over sprint trippes. 2. horse has won at the course before. 3. one of his (2) wins come roundde thisse time lastte year when winning at Newcastle on 15th March... for win purposes, 4/1 looks fair here and 5s aboutte rightte for each waye go

€5ew / if 4s or shorterre, thenne juste €4Win onlee

competitive enoughhhe race this, but i'd almost be disappointed if at least one of these two (Urban Dandy & Mine That Ship) didnae finisshe in ye firstte two,,, anyhoo,

MINE THAT SHIP ~ 8/1. looks fair good price for win: think 13/2 is about what i'd have the Wigham filly at.... 8s is middling enoughhe for each way methinkes.... aint got a great drawwe in boxxe nine for one that may have to lead to make her presence feltte here... is by Kodiac and that sire has had four wins from his progenies' runninges at seven furlongge trippesse on ye Tapeta surface in lst two weeks <altho all were at Wolves>...

€3win , €2ew

ROCKIN ROSA ~ 14/1.. looks big price - could well be halfe that if i were being bullishe.... has a few decentte showinges from runs over six and seven furlonges on AW at Newcastle.... not the most reliable and is comingge back from an absence.. is a winner over seven on Tapeta - sole win and was over 7f lastte yr .. has never ran at Southwell, and given the price will look on thisse as positive.... reckon she's 8/1 for win and ~11s for each way goes...

€4 ew


WARRIOR SQUARE ~ 9/2.. not sure whatte price should be, but 9/2 don't look bad.... the money and the firstte time visor both contributtede towards this lad getting his head in frontte for the first time when winning lto on his eight attempt..... has been running over all sorts of trips... no real idea or opinionne on his previous runs far as formlines goes.... will include 'just in case'

€2.50 win


fark me; 28 bricjkke investedde here! if no gette at leastte half back, then not postin' on ere for quite a while

[Enoch Von Clausewitz]

2,12 Lingfield


NO HALF MEASURES €2.50 Win 11/4...... TAKE CARE €1.50 ew 66/1



6,30 Dundalk

SHEEN FALLS TIME €2 EW 40/1


do me. no strongge fancies

[Enoch Von Clausewitz]

4,45 Doncaster

3 here , hopefullee goode onezze

do me anyhoo,,



MOONLIT CLOUD 8/1

FRANCO GRASSO 14/1

CITY ESCAPE 11/1

will go €2,50 WIN & €2.50 EW on all three


g'l

[Enoch Von Clausewitz]

too tiredde for ye writeuppe earlierre - think they've decent <at leastte > chancesse anyhow.....


sweetness and lightte time


am liking Sleepy Beauty










now for a badasss:

[Enoch Von Clausewitz]

rubbish today


thatte is all

[Enoch Von Clausewitz]

try anudderre



Newcastle - Standard



5,0'c



if Chiefman ~7/4 is ready to go afterrre close on 200 days' absinthce, then he could well be the one to beat here... that course runne last September -over a cupla furlongges shorterre- bodes well here.... he led early then, was headed 2fs outte, and rallied to get third spot.... extra distance should suit.. money's down. too shortte for me atc,,,

Bradman ~ 3/1.. One who, like Chiefman, is possible leader here.... ... thinking is this one wants further perhaps.. mebbe one for another day.. can't see him win today anyhowwe...

Made in China ~ 7/2.. doesn't look any value to me.. has had enough goes already and hard to make a solid case.... i'll leave off.... anotherre possible leader here this one....

the other five in this eight horse field look like they'll be 'eldde up here.....

..... chance is taken on one of those in Haggas' LITTLE ROSE ~ 9/2.... was 7/2 earlier on and thatte looked fair - will go for value here..... not much known about jockey as 7lbs claiming apprentice... on her fourth start and firsste run in h'cap lto she weren't exactly well supported, ran a bit keen, and ended up finishing a respectable enough fourth of eleven then....

..... extra ~1/2 furlong or so here should suit this daughter of Dubawi, and if jockey can get her to settle am hoping she'll be bang there come business endde....

verdikt: LITTLE ROSE 9/2 WIN NB


thatte's all


gl

[Enoch Von Clausewitz]

^^^^^^^^^





that were depressing viewinge


not even placedde , jolly wins easy.

/enuffe

[Enoch Von Clausewitz]

one 4 tomorrow


yay !!!



anyroadde,


Wednesday, 27th March



Kempton - Standard to slow



8,30


Revolucion is a joke of a price here as 15/8 fav... couldn't be having; not even at paper's ~10/3 price would this one interestte me layerzze must be expectingge the f/time blinkers to work oracle here appears to have a plum draw in bpx eleven for one that can be held uppe.... if is held up, then will need plenty of luck in running methines..... probably would prefer to gp from closer to pace as has gotten a fewwe placedde finishes from 6f Polytrack runs- at course, and at Lingfieldde as well as Chelmsford....

also has entries in two similar mickey mouse races, in next six days, with both over seven F's- with one at Wolves and t'otherre at Chelly.... think folkes, think!! trainer of this one aint had a winner in just north of a hundredde days, and that were Revolucion's 10th Dec Woolly winne,,,, if anyone's gotte ye powderre, couldn't put ya off laying this one at up to 9/4..... not interested meselffe tho..... dinna what price this one might go off at...

First Company ~ 4/1.. three wins in total, with two of those cd ones, and bothe those with current trainer as well as underre jock, Billy t'Kidde... likes to lead, has poor box in stall 9 for doing so; esp when those drawnne in boxes eight and ten also like to gette to front early...


ABOLISH ~ 11/2 WIN.... in a race where not too many are jumping off pages as potential winneres, this one aint exactly absinthe ye question markes neitherre

Abolish has only one winne from 28 runs, and a second and two thirdde placedde finishes also.... plus, his only ever run at the course was a CD one in January where he reared at startte.....


nope, not many green shootes 'ere... he is, however, dropping significantly down hcap, and is not incapable of running an odd decentte race on the AW,,,, has a good enough draw in box 4 this normally heldde up/heldde up just off the pace sort.... Neil Callan gets mountte here, and that's a positive in my book....

.... has gone off at short/shortish prices in recent races and will be havingge his firstte ever go in a Cl6.... could conceivably have this one as 4/1 shotte and thatte not be unfair,... paper has as a sevens poke and might be worth ew/win+ew at them odds - but they aint.. trainer, Tony Carroll's in fine formme an' all

verdikt: poor race where the pick might could get run of it ABOLISH €6 WIN @ 11/2 and upwarddes.... €4 win if shorterre







gl



spottedde this one recently... predict big things from up and coming youtoober, Hanni








thatte alle

gl

[Enoch Von Clausewitz]

one 4 tomorrow


yay !!!



anyroadde,


Wednesday, 27th March



Kempton - Standard to slow



8,30


Revolucion is a joke of a price here as 15/8 fav... couldn't be having; not even at paper's ~10/3 price would this one interestte me layerzze must be expectingge the f/time blinkers to work oracle here appears to have a plum draw in bpx eleven for one that can be held uppe.... if is held up, then will need plenty of luck in running methines..... probably would prefer to gp from closer to pace as has gotten a fewwe placedde finishes from 6f Polytrack runs- at course, and at Lingfieldde as well as Chelmsford....

also has entries in two similar mickey mouse races, in next six days, with both over seven F's- with one at Wolves and t'otherre at Chelly.... think folkes, think!! trainer of this one aint had a winner in just north of a hundredde days, and that were Revolucion's 10th Dec Woolly winne,,,, if anyone's gotte ye powderre, couldn't put ya off laying this one at up to 9/4..... not interested meselffe tho..... dinna what price this one might go off at...

First Company ~ 4/1.. three wins in total, with two of those cd ones, and bothe those with current trainer as well as underre jock, Billy t'Kidde... likes to lead, has poor box in stall 9 for doing so; esp when those drawnne in boxes eight and ten also like to gette to front early...


ABOLISH ~ 11/2 WIN.... in a race where not too many are jumping off pages as potential winneres, this one aint exactly absinthe ye question markes neitherre

Abolish has only one winne from 28 runs, and a second and two thirdde placedde finishes also.... plus, his only ever run at the course was a CD one in January where he reared at startte.....


nope, not many green shootes 'ere... he is, however, dropping significantly down hcap, and is not incapable of running an odd decentte race on the AW,,,, has a good enough draw in box 4 this normally heldde up/heldde up just off the pace sort.... Neil Callan gets mountte here, and that's a positive in my book....

.... has gone off at short/shortish prices in recent races and will be havingge his firstte ever go in a Cl6.... could conceivably have this one as 4/1 shotte and thatte not be unfair,... paper has as a sevens poke and might be worth ew/win+ew at them odds - but they aint.. trainer, Tony Carroll's in fine formme an' all

verdikt: poor race where the pick might could get run of it ABOLISH €6 WIN @ 11/2 and upwarddes.... €4 win if shorterre







gl



spottedde this one recently... predict big things from up and coming youtoober, Hanni








thatte alle

gl

no joye


ran good race, but Abolish only second to Muscutt horse

/thatte all

[Enoch Von Clausewitz]

had a look at Friday's racing... three flatte meetings look very competitive and fully subscribedde.... too much study involvedde there


go with a jockey insteadde

Friday, 29th March

Lingfield - Standard


she got fowah roides on Good Friday and me'll do ew L15 on @SaffieOsborne's mounttes at Lingfieldde.... just looked at hers; in 2nd , fourth , sixth and seventh -the last- racessess..... didn't look at owt else, but at cursory glance firstte three appear to have solidde place claims anyhoo; notte sure about Khamsin in 5,o'c, but will stick him in an' alle

2,05 Arcadian Nights , 3,15 Red Flyer , 4,25 Intoxicata & Khamsin in 5,o'c

25 or fiddy cent each weighhe, mebbe, on the "Lucky" ; perhappes go €2 ew on singles,,,,, some races pricedde up with books i think (aint looked) and paper / probable sp has Saffie's @ 12s , 14s , ten to one , and 16s Khamsin

[Enoch Von Clausewitz]

one for tomorrow


Thursday, 28th March



Southwell - Standardo


8,0'c


Mountain Warrior has solidde claimes @ 7/2 going on 2nd lastte run which was CD Cl4 success.... lightly racedde, but did floppe lto at the course over furtherrre..... not sure if 7/2 is value or no, but not for me.... cannot rule out


One More Dream 11/2.... goes well at sixxe furlonges on AW Tapeta surface,,,, has a winne here at course three runnes backe over 7fs... don't think has ever racedde over CD... anotherre whatte can't be ruledde outte... not for me tho.... has never won a Class4, or better, race and that's plenty enoughhe to put me off here,,,, price appears to be negative value is my only halffe opinionne here


High Velocity 11/2... too inconsistent, has shown very little in two runs for latest trainer.... verdict is:- no interest in this one...

Westmorian 7/2... anotherre whatte looks drastically underpricedde here; think 6s or bigger closer to mark... overall, looks outclassedde here...


Glamorous Express 5/1.. has three 6furlong AW wins , to include one apiece at Newcastle , Kempton and Lingfieldde also.... no opinion really on price or chances here.... don't think has ever ran at t'course, and two 'flops' overre Wolverhampton's 6f (a 'bendy' Tapeta race ) trip is eenoughhe to put me off.... goes for bang-in-form Tony Carroll but is anotherre whatte aint never won a Class4 or any race at a grade higher than Cl5... i'm not backingge



.................................


t'pickes:


EM JAY KAY 14/1,,,,, was gonna leave off, but 'green shoots' .... former CD winner from fair while back.... was well supported lto when flopping over CD in a race a grade lower than this one; but at least it was supported.... normally goes from close to pace, but had poor draw that day.... has fair draw in box five and, at prices, has more'n decent place claimes me reckonethhe






TEMPLE BRUER 10/1.... bit to take on trust; have likely dismissed a few with better claims than this one it is what it's... has a long layoff to contend with, but does go well on Tapeta surface. is dropping in weights; and will be havingge firstte go on any AW Tapeta surface since winning at Newcastle in Sept '22.... looks fair price atc..


not much idea on prices or whatte represents value here, but will go with two picks here... have notte o'erly concernedde meselfe with jockey bookings , trainer form etc, or any of that malarkey



Verdict : TEMPLE BRUER €2 Win , €2 EW .... EM JAY KAY €3 EW

GL

[Enoch Von Clausewitz]

^^^^

nowt there


thatte alle

[Enoch Von Clausewitz]

Saturday, 30th March, 2024

been rubishhe lately, keep going 4nigh tho !

looked at one race on Sat'dee; tis enough

Wolves - Standard


7,30


tricky 7f Cl5... two okayishe lookinge pickes on prices & overall form...

THAPA VC ~ 10/1.. four wins from eleven course runninges... is fairly versataile as to how can be ridden.... not screaming outte as winner here by any means, but very difficult to not give this Mark Rimell inmate sound place/each way claims here... the four drawnne inside seem pacey sorts and will hope Jack Mitchell, who rides course very well, can get a good pitchhe early from a good enough lookingge draw in boxxe five and run into a place here, at least.... eight to one about righhte for each weighhe methinkes; could be 10s i suppose for win go... 'paper' had as 8/1 when me firstte looked y'day....

€4 EW


lot of pace on and story of race could be summat what comes fastte and late............


......Fionn McSharry's BERKSHIRE PHANTOM ~ 5/1, could be the one to be on in that regard ... won back to back CD affairs in February of this year.... has had three okay runs since; with one of those at the course, but none of them over course and distance.... looks well placedde from boxxe nine to get good rail sit early out ye backke... plenty pace on early on - as well as late on, i suppose point is, the fieldde should be well thinnedde out and jockey P Mathers should'nt have to try too hardde to findde ye gappes should his mountte holde winning claimes late on in piece

.....price is fair: think about 5/1 for win is rightish, and the paper's 'probable' probably #had it priced right far as each way oddes go...... #anotherre what's price were different when y'day me check'd.... had it as 13/2 poke did ye paper... was gonna be small win + small e/w recommendde at 13/2, but if only fives, well, it's win only then



€5 Win


those two'll do me anyhow

a fewwe otherres are former CD winneres, but could be handicappedde by early pace as many drawnne wide what would like to be frontrunneres have to contendde with speedier sorts on they inside; most notable would be the Loughnane/Loughnane 8yo Triggered ~ 12s,,, he tackles CD afterre 4 moderate to average runs away from it,,,, last two CD runs saw Triggered come 2nd in Cl4 and first in Cl5 the run previoussse..... worth a mention and could well go off a bit shorter than 12/1, possibly, but box seven has to be a worry here,,,,,

thatte alle


gl

[Enoch Von Clausewitz]

^^^^^^^^^^^^







rubbish!!!!

notte even one o' us picjkes could even findde theyselves in toppe fowah, even, come ye jamstickke


brutal showing


thatte is alle

[Enoch Von Clausewitz]

Irish Grand Nazionalle - today; BH Monday, Apreel Fools' Day; ye #1st April 2024


Fairyhouse - Heavy



5,o'c


my five each weighhe against t'fieldde for ye " non 'Blue Riband' " eventte.... sure, it's 275 bags pour le/la winnerre, but it's only a plodder's race... far as 'la' (possible) winner, goes; well; aint no maze no filleezze in this; hhmm, bangge o' sexism off thatte.... wonderre will Jane or Katie have owte to sayye aboot thatte


anyhoo, les pickkes


FAVORI DE CHAMPDOU 16/1

SENIOR CHIEF 9/1

WHERE IT ALL BEGAN 12/1

STREET VALUE 40/1

HISTORY OF FASHION 66/1


most books be going five places here.... verdikt: €2.50 e/w on les picks


#1st April 2024

as an 'aside' , we's well into the 21st century; yep year 25, or is it 24; anyhow, me reckon, and it's only us opinion minde, that once we's past a certain year of any century, say any yearly point north of, say 1915, 2015 etc; then we's pastte, imo, the 'turn of the century' ..... yettte, there still be 'wayne kerrs' what oft <currently> , when referring to early part of the twentieth (that'd be the last/latest century, ie that'd be the one before thisse one) century as the turn of the century - and they mekk no reference even <at currentte point in time where we's past the turn of this century > that they on ahboot last sentyouree///

/////farkin buck 'fkn' wheets


thatte alle



g'l

[Enoch Von Clausewitz]

nowtte tadayye


could do usse with a muse hehehe



here's Emily & Ruby pour la sweetness and lightte













fair play to em !!



thatte alle

[Enoch Von Clausewitz]

o/t / 'obbo' time..





fair play to this badass/boss, ye " (The) Angry Bootneck" !!


#Badassse#StoneCold!







"The Bootneck never forgettes" neitherre does ye law Abidin' Skumbagge nor Clint Eastwood, ye Outlawwe Josey Wales


#AintNoForgettin'


........


leave thisse one here an' alle... few months oldde , but worthhe ye watchhe, imo

two more badassses... Ben <Scallan> mustte be doingge summat right if he can gette Elon on the blowerre.. Musk stone coldde badass; don't thinkke i'll venture to moon, or gette ye chippe in us nogginne any time soon, all t'same


looking at a cupla ones for la morrow; dinna whatte price they'll be.. do me anyhowe.. paper has one at 4/1, and t'otherrre is ~10/1 or biggerre, even.... fair at those oddes w/o beingge o'erly generous. don't have astounding claimes tbf, but atte ye current/potential/'paper'/probable sp, prices; they'll do usse, atm anyhoo


post laterer, hopezzzz

thatte all


gl

[Enoch Von Clausewitz]

not much lately; on we go !





Thursday, 4th April, 2024


Wolves - Standard


Another Aw race 'r two - will do me....


7,0'c

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------



#price disclaimerrre

****** some price difference 'tween earlier (eg, Giant, below is ~5.2 poke; was 7/4 on paperre) looking at paper, and now; cannae be bothering to change em.... "verdikt" prices be's currently avble 'nd they's korrect


---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

could make cases for plenty but one'll do us here, ta v muchhe


Giant ~ 7/4. likes to lead, has gone well (w/o winning) at the course once before <sole CD run aswell> w/o winning; made alle lto at a different course when winning a Cl4 (this a Cl4 - as was that secondde CD finish in July last year) underre Oisín,,,, paper has as 7/4 shotte - looks fairre shortte, but is one of only two horses what are in form..... if was more 'competitive' race, then me'd considerre <if does decide to lead, then has plum box 1 draw, so green shootse for this Richard Spencer horse> 4/1 a 'fai'r price and, therefore, with this particularre rasse not looking that competitive, then 4/1 be value, imo......

...... is no interest to me at current/likely price/s and am happy to leave off... guessing here, but wouldde have as a ~5/2-11/4ish shotte meselfe..... dam sire is Kodiac and they go well on this Tapeta surface,,,,,, Eitherre way, has only ever won two Cl5 races; both over seven furlonges and both at different courses, ran on two different trackes, bothe on Polytrack surfaces,,,,, not for me; would have to be at leasste 10/3 to interestte me... can't say won't win, but i can't be having,,,,, verdikt: No Bet


trainer and jockey, Richard Spencer and Jason Hart, are in fine form too, so that'll likely keeppe his price shortte..... mebbe a win lay on @Giant at 13/8 (~2.64) or less - if those kinda oddes are on offer come showtime....




Rock Opera ~ 7/1.... 6f looks fine but this aint 6f,,,, think this 7f trip is stretchhe too farre,,,, this 4yo has had two <out of 13 in total> course runs and has only manadgedde a CD 7th of twelve over CD from most recentte course runne in January gone..... does have a 6f course win from off 74 lst Nov in mere Class5 race; but like me said on top para line, and me'll 'parra': this aint no six furlongge race.... verdikt: nothingge to recommendde this one: leave off



Double Time ~ 8/1.... has almostte 5mths absence to overcome.... am strugglingge to make case for this one; looks like might need at least one mile on any AW (all three wins have come at three <separate> different AW tracks, with two at a mile as well as Wolves' extendedde one> surface to putte in goode riunne/s..... wouldn't be surprised if this were Lynch's pick (going on 'turfe' form , as has some goode placedde efforts on the grass o'er a mile in three or so races from last Autumn/early winter.. But, all those were over a mile) here, but can't be havingge personally..... don't listenne to Lynch (if he's in studio Thurs night) is my advice.... verdikt: Don't backke this one...


t'pick - TINTORETTO ~ 10/1 EW..... has a win (Cl5), three seconds and a fourth (these four placinges all come in CD Cl4) place to his name from five goesse at the course; with all those beingge course and distance bids..... doesn't really run a bad race here..... trainer is out of formme so thatte needs ye mentionne here... fewwe months since he's hadde ye winnerre but has hadde a few placers recently... hardde to make solidde case as to how Tintoretto can prevail here; even allowing for fact that am notte exactly sure how he canne winne here,,,,, Am however, holdingge onto fact that he's dropping down h'cap... has a few speedy ones inside (Tintoretto is drawnne in box 6) him : most notably the two 'paper' favs: Bell Shot in box five & Giant from one boxx....

..... on account of those two last-mentionedde ones havingge their lto race -at similar/same distance/s (~7fs) - victories on different track/surfaces, me'll considerre bothhe of those opposable....... Reason why me think Tintoretto has squeak here is that Proberto can hopefully be no more than two wide, close to the pace, and could well be able to 'boss' them all if he's on terms with leaders/main bunch a furlongge or so outte....

..... wouldde be a lot more interestinngge if he had a recent run but, alas, he don't.... paper's 10/1 aintte massive value -if at all...... could be an 11s win and, being generous, mebbe 9/1 for each way go.... in a race like this, 10/1 is reasonable price tho... not wholly unlikely that this one -such is the complexion of ye race- : that @Tintoretto could hitte as low as 5/1 at some stage and go off at ~6/1-13/2 oddes, butte no bankingke on thatte..

anyhoo: VERDICT: €5 EW TINTORETTO



Woodstock ~ 6/1..... havingge 2nd run for Mrs Carr (who's in fine form thisse weatherre).... was well supported lto on first run for current trainerre and only managed <altho aterre an absence> a moderate fourth in a poor race... price might (not to me) look temptingge... a watching brief here; might go well over further than this 7f affair, or in t'future, even; but no 'green shoots' here... if had seen f/t headgear utilized, then mightte have pickedde us intarestte.... verdikt: can back if ya want, but i aint



Wiseacre ~ 20/1... has one win, but not at the course (on turf o'er a mile aLingfield),,,, fourth go for new trainerre.... has had 4 goes in total (w/o winningge) at the course; and rarely runnes a badde race there..... be unlikely winner imo.... 20/1 paper has it at..... likely worth a € win if that price or biggerre.... don't know what price it'll be.... verdikt: eitherre shrapnell win or leave off - aint decidedde yet



Hadley Park ~ 20/1.... hardde to fancy,,,, firste go for current trainer on back of three <very poor> hurdles' goes for Harry Derham... verdikt: too hard to fancy: Leave Off



Bell Shot ~ 3/1.... looks fair price,,,, a lotte fairer than Giant's anyhowe me reckonethhe,,,, don't wanna back this Appleby one - so not gonna,,, Saw money for Robert Cpwell on the gelding's lastte run for that trainerrre; that were over 6f at Southwell... thinkke 7fs on Tapeta is too stiffe a trip for thisse gelded son of Dark Angel.... mebbe a sharp 7furlongs on Polytrack (like at Lingfieldde lto when winning easy over 7fs makingge all) , or on turf, where can dominate proceedingges, can this one have racewinninge claim, but i aint seeing them here.... still thinkke 3/1 is fair price atc, and not puttingge anyone off, but me verdikt is no bette



Verdikt: TINTORETTO ~ 25/1..... €5 ew..... poor race, might even be worth €2 win or each way at five's even; who knows?



8,30


LOCKED N' LOADED ~ 4/1 WIN. came good second lto at the course over ~1f further... prior to that came a well supportedde 3rd of ten over the Southwell 1m trip... went off fav lto.... both those runs were vastte improvements on recentte runnes, so am expectingge .... has two wins to his name, with bothhe those CD ones and were fromme over 4yrs ago

still; is comingge back to form, and is plummetingge down hcap.... price is fair just about imo; would consider 3s skimpy here.... shortesst me'd wanna go is 10/3 - 7/2

trainer Tony Carroll's in fine form an' all, and jock, William Carson rides the track well enough: 8% strike-rate middling, but is the course's second winning-most jockey in ye lineuppe here <since 2010>

assuming 4s or bigger, le Verdikt: LOCKED N' LOADED €3 WIN 4/1


gl


thatte alle

[Enoch Von Clausewitz]

Friday, 5th April, 2024

///////////////


#lookedde at this a few times ;; cupla 'drafts' didde at varriusse intavalls.... 'final picks'/ recommendations, are at bottomme of ye thread EVC - 22:34 04/Apreel hope makes sence ; deffo hope me mekks goodly amount o' 'cents' - well, more like €€€€€€

////////////////////////////////////

Lingfield - Standarrdo



2,30



not liking jolly... badde drawwe in boxxe sevenne for one whatte seems -going on latest two of fourre runnes in totalle- to ant go close to pace.... some of the lowerrre ones like to be up close to pace/lead, an' all; and mebbe one or two on herre outsidde..... paper has Get Jiggy With It at 13/8... fair skimpy; imagine wanttes further on breeding anyhow....

.... does have three placedde finishes -from four in total 7f runs-all on turf, but has never racedde on ye AW.... couldde be an idiotte, but worth risking €10 laying this one (if at same/similar, or shorterre, price)mmmmhhhhh...... anyhow, joe kingge aside, me'd rather split us tenner on laying this one for two, three and four places hope springges eternal


three pickes here


fekkitte, i's a bornne degenerate



VIENNOISE ~ 2/1 . nowte wrong with stayingge on 2nd lto at Wolves,,,,, that were justte secondde run.. Flip side, Lingfieldde be's differentte surface; and looks as though mightte want furtherre than seven f's,,,, be five win if over a mile, or six/seven yoyo winne if race were at Wolves......

Verdikt: €3 Win



cupla speculative each weighhe ones



UNFORGETTABLE FIRE ~ 33/1......

(If prices <nd me's aint skmint > of all/most selections, as well as paper fav are same/similar as now, then me might try have look at e/w - win only prices on these - but no betting w/o GJWI;. Nope, will -leastte consider it- think o' backingge win/ew, both Unforgettable Fire & Mleiha without Viennoise, only - that's me line o' thinking, now at approx 22:47 Wednesdayye nightte)


anyhow, Unforgettable Fire is by Phoenix Of Spain - who's progenies have hadde two wins recently,,,, grantedde, shortest was over a mile (thisse race a furlongge shorter than thatte) when Galician Girl won at Dundalk a cupla Friday's backke)....... at prices, we won't gette too hungge up on staying claimess......


............. firstte tw runs rubbish! will overlook them for reasons various: 1. 1st run was 'firstte run' 2. lastte runne ws prolly o'er well inadequate trippe -regardless of how poor she ran- and she jinkedde violently leftte at start,,,,,,,,,,, Can go better if learningge to settle early; and likely this a suitable enough trip on pedigree..... 3. poor one this: has 'benefitte of two runs'


Verdikt: UNFORGETTABLE FIRE ~ 33/1 €3 EW........ (mightte could possibly spreadde some o' us stake around on going win/ew w/o Viennoise)




MLEIHA ~ 25/1


just two runs..... firstte (both over ~7f) one saw her finish 6th <but not by very far, ~3.25Lgths, at Southwell in Feb, underre 'ollie> of eleven in Cl5 at Southwell........ Flip side is probably wants a lot further, on breedingge..... altho, that runningge on 6th on firsste run suggesttes a place is notte unpossible here...... driftedde out to 11/2, but Mleiha did open at ~2/1 thatte daye - so summat must've been expectedde...

.... far as Mleiha's last (19th Mar. at Wolves) run goes, and her very poor 9th of twelve, in a Cl4, goes; will draw line thru thatte - on accountte of poor drawwe then.... was drawn in box eight of twelve <hardly the worst draw tbf > , and; oh wait a minute, i've usedde this excuse already: she driftedde like a barge thatte daye an' all sensing a pattern here....

small stakes here....


Verdikt: MLEIHA €2 EW............ (similar to @Unforgettable Fire; couldde use all/mostte o' that going win/each way withoutte Viennoise)


puttin' a lotte o' eggs in Get Jiggy With It running nowwte like her odds suggest....

time: 23:17,,,, I'll leave off for now and revisit tomorrow (Thursday 4th April) and see if i findde different angle; or, possibly leave all/moste o' us picks/selections off


leave at that for now

gl me andde everyone else on 'ere an alle


23:21 - 'out' . #SaveDraft



-------------------------------------------------


16:54 Thurs eve - me'll have anotherre luukke


see Richard Hughes has Faster Bee here.... 'paper' has as 9/4 shotte; which paper has as thirdde favourite.... not sure on thissse one's claims here... has eight runs and no wins, with one 2nd placedde finish in a Southwell 7f affairre last Sept. no real appeal


looking at 'odds' page on ye horsey website and the picks, Unforgettable Fire & Mleiha are approx 33/1 and 25/1; with the three jollies: Viennoise, Get Jiggy With It & Faster Bee, priced at ~5/4 , 13/8 & 3/1; altho some discrepancy, atm, with the shortte pricedde ones - one <365> has Viennoise at 6/4 and BF have her at 2s; Paddy P alongge withhe a fewwe otherres have GJWI at 13/8, and 365 has her a lot bigger at 2s.. Faster Bee ranges from 5/4 to 7/2....

..... that's justte what ye IR bettingge page says; will have to wait a while to findde out actual prices of these.....

notte muchhe otherre thoughts atm on this race...

17:09

will look a bit later on

/Save Draft

-------------------------------


18:10 4th April

not lookedde at any books' page/s , but me trusty <<< ??? 'trusty' :lol .... better than nowtte tho - for ye compartive purposes>>>> 'odds' page has Viennoise as ~5/4 gen, Get Jiggy With It @ 13/8 gen, and Hughesie horse, Faster Bee as general 3/1 shotte

18:14 think a lil more afore us final recommenddes

Save Draftte

PS good lucke me 'n alle everyone else


_________________________________________


21:56 - Final Draft - hopefully


WD Gerwyn Price gettin' a "nine" there against 'Buly Boy' in SF2 on night ten in Manchester


anyhowwe, checkke prices 'nd see whatte's uppe.....



prices: Viennoise ~5/4 , Get Jiggy With It ~ 13/8, and Faster Bee ~3/1 #

# as with me 'pick prices' -just check'd with a cupla ones- some books might have all or some o' ye above 'nd belowwe, at bigger/shorter prices.....

,,,,,, anyhow, no luck today youngge Willie Carson didna ha'e his finest hour in lastte at Wolves otherre pickke ran ok at price but were out placesse, alas


anyhow, pick prices: Mleiha ~40/1 , Unforgettable Fire ~50/1

hhmm, what'll me do ?

...........................................................

.......................final pickkes:



VIENNOISE : TOO SHORT FOR ME AT 5/4 - NO BETTE ... can't backke em all; looks 'most likely' here tho.... not for me


MLEIHA 40/1, €2 EW............. betting without @Viennoise: Mleiha 18/1, €2 EW

UNFORGETTABLE FIRE 50/1, €2 EW........ betting without Viennoise again: Unforgettable Fire 22/1, €2 EW


not expectingge much, but change of luckke is due


thatte's alle


Gl





____________________________________________________________________

[Enoch Von Clausewitz]

WD Luke Littler !!!!







Stone Cold Badass is LL


2 winning PL nights in a row.... top o' Premier League



#DivisionOne

[Enoch Von Clausewitz]

more rubbish - enuffe for todayye


thatte alle


gl