Horse Racing

[Enoch Von Clausewitz]

One Mowah :-

tonorrow, Windy 14th Feb


Kempton - Standard to slow



4,25

Cl 5 7f H'cap

had a look at jolly, How Impressive ~11/10.. has poor enough overall form, but "Spud" managed to gette winne on him lto... is three times winner in total, so no backe numberre.. Spud dictated then over the same trip, but at different course: Lingfield.... has seen many top jocks other than Oisín Murphy get the ride....

thing about this one is; pretty much needs to lead from start to finishe.. Brandon Wilkie (3) might be no Murphy, but am sure he's capable of givinge a good account here....

originally thought there weren't much pace on here, but Further Measure (drawn box '2' ) & Devizes (box 4) have shown in timesse recente that they can race up front or very close to pace.. jolly is berthed in box six, so i dinna..... interestingly, Devizes ~33/1 , from the P. Phelan yard, who, at the age of eight, has scarce raced south of twelve furlonges, and only tackled ten furlonges twice (first ever two runs) was dropped to a mile lto and now tackles a furlong shorter anyway, will keep eye on...


Might be of intereste to some, but not me; as i don't trade prices, or back/lay inrunning (least not 'during' race - advance one's mebbe- if i've already backedde/layed the relevant nagge in advance o' race). cupla thoughts on this one: 1. I think the not greatly drawn How Impressive is artificially shorte here..... and i think it's 'possibly' on account of being in-form and a frontrunner.... methinkes layers don't want to offere 7/4 - 15/8 whatever, on account of in-running "juice", ie if horse breaks early and in front, it could be a 4/5 shotte before the firste bend..


just notice things (right or wrong) since been on the xchanges... prolly talking through us hoope, but i'm entitled to my opinion...

2. Could well be worth laying How Impressive at upwards of 6/5, perhappes, with view towards backinge at ~13/8 or above.. Not doing meselfe, but I likes me obbos...


far as layinge goese, they aint fooled on exchanges: How Impressive is available to back for small money at ~9/5... if similar price tomorrow, consider those above opinions moot.. have no opinion on backing / layinge / whatever, if horse is round ~7/4 or 2/1 mark



.... am not liking jolly overall, and do think (even at a fewwe ticks north of his current 11/10 price) he's vulnerable for minor honours <should things no go tae planne, or mebbe be not juste good enough on day>; so i'm gonna try lay How Impressive for three and four places....


anyhow, the pick:

PLASTIC PADDY ~11/4 WIN
came third to Ultramarine lto over CD in a grade higher race.... price is shorte enough and prolly no real value.. would have him as 4/1 shot, but will back regardless... paper had him as 11/2 shot, which would definitely make him a fiver winne at them oddes.. am going lesser coinerage meselfe.. Still, same "paper" ,ie l'internette racecarde had jolly as 9/4 shotte, so cannae complain there... was 4/1 earlier, so that price gone- tho it didn't appear mahoosive- and jolly, i think, was round ~10/11, so not a massive drifterree...

still, no lump job here.. regardless of price, Plastic Paddy was never gonna be more'n a fiver win recommendation.



not screaming out and out winner this one, and poor enough value, but will do me in spite of price reservationnes...

Verdikt :1. PLASTIC PADDY €3 WIN..2. lay How Impressive for 3/4 places - if available to back for win purposes come showtime -or close enough to it-, and allowing for this fav to be no bigger than 11/8 (could well be a drifterre this one, so mebbe a small 4-place lay if horse is 13/8 or bigger.. )

tht all

gl

[Enoch Von Clausewitz]

tomorrow,

Wednesday, 14th Feb


Fontwell - Soft


3,50

a "fiver each way if yer feelin' brave" picke , or at least it would've been at 33s ! !!

recommendation's a deal shorter

anyhow,

in this race we see trainer M Hawker represented; and so small time I don't even know his first name.. very secretive these racinge folkes...
anyoldhoo, it's been a while since he's had a winner - almost a year; not that that's a bad thing as many trainers are on ye colde list a lot longer...

looking at his runners, he's only had two out in the laste ~3wks- with one of those beinge le picke,, as well as the selection, he's got another one entered as well somewhere else, so about two a week it seems he sendes oot

no angle on trainer form; horse is pretty old, and seems well out of form, but is a #big price.. seems to go on any old ground also, so not a concerne if it dries out or gets wetter... #not as big as 33s :- wouldn't count 14s or 16s as 'bigge price' relevant to his chances here,,,

pick:

MORTENS LEAM 16/1 WIN & EW

won in April '21 and wasn't seen until Dec. '22 when pulled up at Fontwell... nxt race saw him run again at Fontwell -almost a year later- where he finished pulled up... his next, and most recent, race saw him run at Chepstow ~2wks ago, and, in that race he finished fifth of thirteen.. wasn't beaten that < ~32lgths> too far, atc, in a race where six of the thirteen who went to post, didn't finisshhe

.... as well as that, and on flip side, it was a poor looking race ran in a slow time.. he wasn't fancied that day either...

anyhow, that last run represents a 'green shoote' and good enough for me...

goes well at the course as has two winns there,,

what else do i like/have looked at: eff all is the answer there! Mortens Leam is a holdup horse, so a normally ran race should suit..

enough for me.... think i'll investe five or six yoyos and do summat like €3 win & €1 ew.. think the juice (not that there's much: zero infacta,imo ) is in winne portion of bette... if i was brave, i'd go fiver each way, or 5win + 2.50 each way - smth like that, but i aint...

figure he's about 22s for the winne here, nd similarish for ew terms,.. i'll back him at shorter for shrapnelle, ats

Le Verdikto: MORTENS LEAM ~ €2 WIN , €1 EW

gl

humbugge ! nr is Mortens Leam

thought for the day: "paper" had Mortens Leam as 33/1 shotte two days ago. y'day <and today> , for some reason, even though no one had any odds offered up, for some reasonne ye paperre had/has the selectionne as 14s shotte... might be summat to it vis a vee 'shenanigans' , as perhappes 'cards' were 'marked' perhappes, or mebbe it's just one of them thinges: maybe the oddsmakers merely reassessed his chances..

keep eye out for that shoíte....


annoyed now, he was ~10s afore me hit leaba, me was in bullishe mood as i figured the signes were good...... ah well

keep ball rolling... that means keep at trying to finde picks - regardless of how they fare/are faring


anyroad,

tomorrow,
Tuesday, 13th Feb


Lingfield : Soft


they say the going is soft, so am allowing for ground conditions...


4,40

a Cl5 Conditional Jockeys' Hurdle here.

Goguenard ~9/4 carries bottomweight here. won his last two races when making all, or at least racing prominently.. those were marked improvement on all his previous efforts.. all we have to go on is; we know he can win a ~2.5m hurdles' race making all, but this is ~half mile shorter... if this were 2m race, me'd consider ~15/8 a fair price; the horse is -accordinge to paper/racecard- a 9/4 poke.. have no opinion on whether or not this is value -not unfair price is as much as i'll venture .. anyhow, this one aint for me; i think this one's vulnerable to a closer should Goguenard try to lead.. maybe back to lay, p'happes... not for me no how, just a thought....


had a look at Tara Iti ~12/1, here, of Gary Moore stable.. trainer has won this as recently as 2022, and it would be just like him to gette (or try gette ) winner for young jock, plus is big price - relatively speaking... have never heard of the jockey, Mr A Weaver, myself.. hard to make a case for this one, and think/strongly suspecte this one needs better ground... changeable weather, and definitely worth a look if the word 'Good' makes an appearance ye nxte time the going is updated.. whenever that'll be...



My Friend Sean ~ 11/2 and Uncle Arthur ~6/1 are two lightly raced ones here. My Friend Sean has done very little in his four races in NH sphere, and not expectinge much of an improvement come raceday... the ground, should it come up soft as expected, should be fine; but it don't tekk rocket scientiste to profess that this is one what likely/possibly "wants further - on breeding" , and i daresay that likes of Apiafi will suggeste same thing should he be trackside... wouldn't be surprised if he's reading this on here.... was watching racing at Nby on Sat'dee: odds had Hitman @ 12s , presenter talking shoíte ("part and parcel", so there's that: no complaints - just an obbo O) to Aberdeen Alex ....

....anyhow, back to 'studio' , or wherever the presenters were perched on the course, and, in fairness ~5mins or so before ye offe, and the pundittes was giving their pick/s... Josh were sweet on Hitman, who was trimmed into 9s at that stage... moments/couple minutes later when about 1 or 2 mins before the offe, and Hitman still at nines, sorte of laste orders presenter picks, ypung Joshy mentions Hitman twice, and bullishly... noe probs with someone being confident on one at a big price, but the horse were 12s only a fewwe mins previous - why not mention it then?? anyhow, rant over... horse ran well, but was outte the places- which is irrelevant really... I juste think he reads on here- perhappes not .. merely being confidently hubristic on that score w/o being o'er bullishe....

Uncle Arthur is racewinner, but not one to putte too much trust or faith in... winner on soft ground, granted -one of his two wins.. seems trainers don't like holding onto this one (three separate owners too) .... i can't rule him out, but i'll swerve him regardless... if ya can make a case for him, then good lucke to ya.. only thought is: Paper has this one as 6/1 poke; don't know what price he'll open at, but i suspecte this one to hitte ~10/3 - 7/2 price at some stage at least.

i think we can get cracking run for us money fromme the picke here,

JUST OVER LAND ~4/1 NB, WIN

has had six races in total... ran okay w/o pulling up any trees in his first three runs; those were all over ~2m , and all had a deal of 'Soft' in going description... it was inexperience, imo, that caused a few blunders in his earlier races, but can't find any real reason why he'll not be running well this time.. i think 2miles on soft ground is close to perfect for this lad... last and latest run saw him tackle ~2.5m on similarish ground at Chepstow.. chased the pace that day, and seemed to be bang there at about 4f's outttee.... notte exactly the same thing as actually 'winning' a 2m race, but 'Green Shoots' nonetheless... also, that was a Cl4, ie 'better' race, and he was well supported, though tbf, he don't have a lotte of 'drifting like a barge' form in the bettinge in any of his races

think there's loadsa juice in potential 4/1 price.. sire is No Risk At All, and they possibly fare better over further trippes or going chasing... think this is cracking bette going win only; no means a 'lump job' tho...

as to what price i think this one is , or should be; i aint so sure,,, don't want to speculate too oftenne or too much -in case am wrong - but alls i gots to say on this one is:- 'ye won't be getting mugged taking 3s on this one' . it's a tenner for me at 4s tho , nt sure if shorter....

... and on that score, if me e'er finds owt what me considers 'lump job' , me'd like to think it'd at least be 13/8 poke; shur anyone can be bullishe about odds on pokes ....

verdict JUST OVER LAND €5 or €10 WIN is me recommendation here....


Enoch's words for the day - "commensurate" "ire"

Enoch's thought for the day: "think 60/40" in yisser dealings... going to pub restaurants, with mates, whatevs,, keep mental note -no need to write down- and if ye believe ye've contributed close to , upwards , or north of 60% to ye billes/tabbes, then ye be on 'terra cotta' so far as any possible stinginess allegations could be levelled against...

not scaleable really, but for the smaller things, then yeah... not advocating this in any customer/business type transactions, like don't be paying an xtra 20% on seconde hande carres or owt like that,,,,


gl:0)

Speaking of "shenanigans" , as i oftenne do in course of writing out postes; me does me previewing/editing, etc, and arter me post is sent/saved, whatevs, me has to back-space a lotte for to exit ye page..

seems, or at least it did so, that every change/edit or preview addeth up to one view per 'actionne' , for want of a better worde,,

anyhow, someone might inferre those same "shenanigans" on my part as in trying to 'artificially'' inflate views...

so, betimes, me check's views afore me ~+15 or so edittes, and sometimes there be hardly any (bout one mebbe) extra views or hits, whatever

well, that's me "obbo" today...

might have some advice laterer on , maybe a picke as well

and Goguenard a nr in that 4,40 Lingfield race, when at around 4/1 - 7/2 mark.. Just Over Land seems best price 7/4 - not sure, not gonna bother checking with books.... too too short, might win, but not for me...

..... like i said above: "shenanigans" me sees GOGUENARD (non runner in that same race) is also entered in an eminently more suitable (distance/trippe-wise) tomorrow in 4,55 Fontwell

trained by DJ Jeffreys -enough said - hashtag"crookininvertedcommas"

couldn't be uppe to themmme

in words of Phil Collins, "that's all"




gl

more sickening shenanigans with that one being pulled... anyhowwee, he's (Goguenard) running at a suitable looking trippe today in 4,55 Fontwell...

,,,,too tired / lazy /p'd offe to look at that race.... looks like he's a generalle 4/1 shotte <which looks fair big> .... frontrunners are always vulnerable regardless, but it's a Cl5 juste like the one he won lto -albeit at different course...

the two above him don't look like they're winners in waitinge or indeed screaming out to be backed... haven't looked at the reste of them... wouldn't put anyone off havinge €3/€4 on him should they wish.. out of annoyance i've had a tenner on nose,,, fejkkitt anyhoo !!

enoughe with rassinge - me has ye snookee to luuk at anyhow...

happy boingking

[Enoch Von Clausewitz]

another one,

complete hit nd hope job:

2moro, Valentine's Day; Feb 14


Hereford - Good to soft-soft in places

2,00

ALDUNI'S GIRL 125/1 EW

from the shrewd (i'm calling her shrewd) Deborah Cole stable... had a look at all the raced ones here and am not gone on any,,, might be some of ye ~'unraced' ones what might've been running on flat, but if there were no form figures beside their names, then me left em offe...

first time going hurdling after having 2 (very poor) runs in bumpers; at least knows what a racecourse looks like, but main 'hopeful green shoote' is the fact that those NH Flat runs were on top of ground,, good to soft, tending towards soft, but forecaste says rain's due,,, so hoping the selection has liking for the ground on her firste go on likely soft going...


on another day, mebbe recommendation be €0.75ew , but folke are free to bette whate'er they likes.. free country, well supposedly,,, cannae say bad words about murderers what should never have been here in the first place, or that traitor Mehole might have ya locked up....

#AintNoForgettin


Verdikt: ALDUNI'S GIRL €2 EW


I see 'Buffy' has one here.. out of all the reste, the only one what picks intareste is Boughey's Absolute Queen ~10/1... usually/mainly a younge flatte trainer, but am thinking he might've had a NH runner out a while backe... flat trainer with, presumably, a few horses for jumpes.. watch this one to see how she fares.. some of her flat runs suggest she might have a squeak... dunno yette will i back this one..

that is all

Gl

rubbishe

ah yeah; thought Absolute Queen was no biggerre than 4/5 for three places, and bout half (or less) her opening win price come ~2 out... wasn't a picke bt i did her anyhowe price was too big to ignore...

at least the HDB gamble came unstuck : "green shoot"

gl

[Enoch Von Clausewitz]

Enoch's words for tge day : "Extra Terrestrial"


......

s/o to us heroes; fightinge ye good fighte





fair play to Niall... this one's a teacher and levelle of delusion is off chartes...

#FairPlay

and another thinge, YouTube is in on it an' all... had to type in (for accurate 'umbrage taking', and not be incorrect/misrepresenting... shtuff,,,) full name of his channel, and up to as far as the "y" & "o" of site - afore it give me 'recommendation' / whatever: "prompt/s" , if ya like..

not the first time i've seen this neither... surely his channelle aint that niche... even people like me whatte engage in alternatve lifestyles canne have a sense of right / wrong / fairness / sovereignty , the rights of the indigenous over the planters..

#GoodOnYaNiall

#Raising Awareness

...............

have an opinion/few opinions on a laterre race; but it's "one of those" : expounderage on one of those shall be provided later- should i be uppe or unless i decide to notte go aheede with les bettes (more'n one bette/picke in this race).....










ÉIirinn go Brách

I'm sick and tired an all. Ireland for the Irish

that is all

gl

[Enoch Von Clausewitz]

have an opinion/few opinions on a laterre race; but it's "one of those" : expounderage on one of those shall be provided later- should i be uppe or unless i decide to notte go aheede with les bettes (more'n one bette/picke in this race).....

yeppe, "one of them races"

7,0c Chelmsford

NO BETs



had a look at paper ~2days ago: Paper had Shallow ~ 11/10 , Wild Saffron ~3/1 & Raffles Angel ~7/1

thinking was then: lay jolly , and back 2nd fav and thirde fav

looked y'day and odds were pretty similar, iirc


....different story when i looked at exchanges late laste nighte... they were looking for close on 2/1 for the jolly.. books still had that one (Shallow) at ~11/10

...#"l'expounderage) was half expectinge my early prediction ( for the short priced jolly to remain skimpy) to not come to fruition, but no, Shallow's priced muche higher @ ~13/8 now, so = too bigge to lay,,, Figured likely enough possibility that fav would drifte, esp as one i put up y'day for layinge also opened up too bigge, so didn't want to compound me rubbish predictions ...

... and the 2nd and thirde favs are juste too shorte to back, for me

Verdikt was gonna be: Lay Shallow for tenner at up to 11/8, with €5 win on Wild Saffron ~ 3/1 & ~€4 win on Raffles Angel (altho that one i expected price to change; laste time Raffles Angel was a respectable price was last nighte @ ~9/2, so would've been 2 or 3 yoyos win advisede on that one) @ 7s

VERDIKT: ODDS CHANGED FROM WHEN i LOOKED AT RACE ORIIGINALLY

=



NO BETS


that was the only race i looked at,

sorry folkes

that is all

gl

[Enoch Von Clausewitz]

greetinges

nothinge for today, alas...

wasn't watching that race (Chelmsford 7,0'c) , but glad i made no win recommendations on both i 'fancied' - i backed both meselfe anyroad - i'm not o'erly pushed on 'value' , but there's a line - and folkes willing to tekk umbrage an' all..

i does me beste for to provide pickes to ye joe's / josephines and Enochhes what like to, or at least try to have no more 'on average' than ~€4/€5 per picke..... ish and at prices reasonable/commensurate

anyhowe, nowt for the day...

give another "shoutout" or "s/o "to folke whatte talke sense....

... this time it's an Englishe chap: Ex British Army Paz49






this lad's me fave: funny an all: The Angry Bootneck











Enoch's advice for the day : if ya wanna finde oot what YouTube channels are worth listening to; inveigle ur way into a woke's company..... seems they know em all - they have to have summat to give out about, da nutteres....

like me said, in news <jermaine to thread> , have nowt for the day, and have sq rt of fk all for tomorrow.. do have one race i'm interested in, but nothing concrete on it yette..

if have, will post tonight, this eve..

that is all,

gl

)

[Enoch Von Clausewitz]

s'more Nicks:


hot damn



should have us pickes (3 in one race ) up within nxt hour

[Enoch Von Clausewitz]

salut !

[ike me said, in news <jermaine to thread> , have nowt for the day, and have sq rt of fk all for tomorrow.. do have one race i'm interested in, but nothing concrete on it yette..

if have, will post tonight, this eve..
/quote]

juste like me said, this were race me had in minde,,, no solidde picks here, i's afeared, but good enough to go ~€3/4 apiece on em.....
,,, might even do cobi 'castes an' all

happy enough with me picks at les prices:

Le Rundowne:::

Sat, 17th Feb


Wolverhampton - Standarde

8.15

7f Cl5 Fillies' Handicap


1. (11) David's Diva ~ 2/1

Possibly one whatte might have otherwise (has poor draw) be a leader trackerre... might have to be helde up here... price aint great, tbf.... can't be ruled out... Overall, up against it and skimpy enough price; but might juste go well regardless... likely include in us pickes..



2. (3) Harriet's Angel ~ 3/1

will likely thwack leaders from herre good draw in three box... ws drifting 5/2 fav when tackling CD for the first time on penultimate run.. keengoing sort.... might be better on a different AW surface: not for me


3. (9) Capuchinero ~ 18/1

sports f/time visor.. can be helde up, but possibly preferes to lead..... don't really know what to make of overalle form.. has never(?) won on Tapeta surface... poor draw is enough to put usse off...


4. (1) Soi Dao ~ 5/1

this one could be key to race... is drawn in b oxxe one and possibly will lead - if nowt else does, p'happes - or lead off her own batte/steam.. is a winner at the course over further... am guessing she wants further... will give her le swerve, but i can't rule out...


5. (5) Circles ~ 6/1

Irish raider,,, CD winner from two runs backe... was helde up then from box ten... drawn five here might see this one closer to pace than perhappes she might want or need... i'd almost fancy her if she was drawn in box nine or higher.... she might be held up, regardless, and go and winne anyhowwe.. can't rule her out, but three pickes is enoughe here looks vulnerable underre race conditionnes...


6. (7) Autumn Angel ~ 20/1

five runs at course... no winns.... notte 4me.


7. (2) Rose Fandango ~ 28/1

long layoffe, has had many trainers,,,, has a good draw for one what 'mostly' chases pace.... good enoughe for each way poke, albeit harde to mekk case solidde for her.. < #was mahoosive price earlier doors just check'd actual prices - wen putting on bets; 20s i got, might be bigger available>


8. (6) Dolores Abernathy ~ 17/2

juste the three runs- hard to have an opinionne on this one.. first time in h'cap... from the shrewde Lowe/Loughnane combo... if she wins, it'll be of no benefit to me , Enoch or us imaginary friend Dave...


9. (4) Maruna ~ 18/1

f/time c'pieces... has claimes on the form of her firste two runs... those were on Tapeta surface.... has done very little on her three most recente runnes.... those were on a different surface/surfaces... going on trainer Appleby , plus first time visor and those two more'n respectable firste two runs.. verdict: in a word, "tasty".. no lump job!!! filly piques us puntinge intarestes is all


10. (10) Powdering ~ 16s

holdup merchant - unlikely to figure here.


11. (8) Rumailah ~ 33/1

three runs in total- impossible to fancy...


them prices above are "ish" ones - going on le 'paperre'... will quote correct price/s belowwe on us pickes....



tPIKs:

DAVID'S DIVA €2 WIN 2/1 no value.. might just be winner tho... might be worth ~€3 if 11/4 or biggerre

ROSE FANDANGO €2 EW 20/1

MARUNA €3 EW 20/1

could go combi 'castes an all; pretty sure I will


seems this post appears as a quoted one; i dinna.....


anyhowe,

that's all

g'luckke

[Enoch Von Clausewitz]

"Plausible" is Enoch's worde of day


anyroad , on account of females is great, here's a reet fine example...

( it were either Sea t'Stars or Frankel whatte comms referred to as "perfection in equine form" ... not a ckue - they all look same to me horses that is hehehehe ,, )


#FineFilles


another YouTuber me'd recommend for chappes/chapettes with discerningge eye ,,,

alreet Cherryl love?

ooff !! "Isle Of Man" , Enoch wouldst opine


anyroad, could do withe winnerree.... feeldss as tho me seems some more 'equity' afore me goes on anotherre rant,

that's all 4nigh. possibly a speculative one later on for Gosforth

gl

[Enoch Von Clausewitz]

5,30 Newcastle

BOBBY JOE LEG 17/2 WIN

havinge fewe thoughts on 'speculative' nature of race; put uo laterer on to closer to showtime.. think Bobby's worth about €3 win here, ats

[Enoch Von Clausewitz]

on that Newcastle race me putte pick up for: fewve thoughts, but like saying beloe: win pick is us main selectionne

have another one, whatte's more speculative (opinion on how this partika 7f Cl4 Hcap will pan out) than moste of ours , but no complete forlornne hope ats... is me hopesse me's porin' out here

have a fewwe thoughts, but win pick is main recommendation... folke be free to do whatever


anyroad,

Newcastle - Standard


5,30

am calling this ' The owt can happen / "No! , dinna look this way, look t'other one Stakes" '


completely guessing here on t'jolly, Smoky Mountain, but there don't appear to be any out and out frontrunners here..... to this end, and this is the guessing bit, i do be <not sure on the dusby(s) , but folke sho' do like they do[be(s) , so the 'do-be(s) 'out' this go-around -- ee, i is klever > be thinking fav needs a strong run 7fs race to be seen to his best effect and Smoky Mountain ~ 11/10 may not gette this here.. course reverse could be true also; am not sure how i computated how slow (if race is ran slow early on) run race will adversely affect jolly; am kinda thinking it will tho.. either waye, am still thinking he's a sound lay bette @ up to 6/4...

thinking win lay + place lay(s) on this one..


.............................................................

thoughts on Main Selection:



BOBBY JOE LEG ~ 8/1 WIN

this one will do me. never done much outside of Cl 6 company, and this a Cl4, but can have a say in a race whatte might be ran to suit. been a long time since he's carried a weight this low; and that is further aided by a jockey on his back taking off seven lbs... and he's only afterre winning his laste four races....


more thought/s on short price favooreet,

.... looks interesting race to me anyhow.. when short price fav's lose , they don't always rattle crossbar - could well come nowhere this Smoky Mountain... this one could possibly be staying on late and win / get place , or might have too much to do even, and finishe outte moneyye ... not completely beyond beyondes that this one (the fav) could trade big price in-running and go on and winne.. owt can happen... might try 'possible' €2 in-running win @ 10/1 as welle.. might never gette near that price tho, all guesswork

.....i think (could be waay waay wronge) he's worth a lay at up to 6/4 here, and is a deal shorter than that atm (~5/4 lst time me check'd); and, on another side of coin (not doinge meselfe, but can see a likely / possible angle) could lay Smoky Mountain in advance of race and to "cover" (if thinking could trade biggerre price in-running) bet by advance backinge at possible futurre "inrunning" win odds: for possibly recovering outlay by backing to win at ~4/1 and utilising a further ~20% of potential profittes to try consolidate winninges/possible winninges; perhapps at odds of 5/1, mebbe 10s also.. just a thoughte

.... an FYI, if ye're no on t'exchanges, or don't have online account (and on the offchance that ya fancy that a shorty won't be in the first two/three) even; tho while not exactly same thing, a combi f'caste on the rest of the participants could be in orderre all the betterrre if 2nd fav is say, 7/2 or betterre and race looks wide open otherwise.... or, so long as there aint that many other horses in race - upwards five be okayishhe

there's pointing out the obvious co'ered above... was watching telly as tyoping this out and saw Donncha O'Callaghan shillin and thought to meselffe, "might use that" in us post, and say summat like, "me'd rather lose €10 doing bettes stupidos than g'e as muche as a red cent to yis profiteering and proliferationing of misery, kernts " , but i remained stoicke and equnimagnannimouse, and didna


those some of me opinions.

Verdikt : BOBBY JOE LEG €3 WIN


hope i gette summat righte todaye - easy to look foolish whenne it come to trying to have ye 'orignalle ideasse'



gl

[Enoch Von Clausewitz]

one for tomorrow

Sunday

Southwell - Soft-heavy in places

4,0'c

a hopefulle and interestiing EW poke here is SNOW FORECAST 10O/1 €3 EW...

no partikla reason.. think the fav is vulnerable here... Sea Grey is ~4/7 gen.. don't know what price it'll be, but i think this one's worth a win lay bet at up to 1.7...... might well go off bigger anyhowe,,, thinking is that regardless of ground, and looking at his last two runs, it seems that he mighte want a trippe... On that basis alone, it looks worth risking at up to 8/11 for to find out... also, Brian Hughes, who likely would have choice, decides to go to Musselburgh.... difficult to price, but i'd have Sea Grey at 9/10 , fwiw

nowt else


that's all 4now


gl

[Enoch Von Clausewitz]

Enoch's Obboi: I aint no 'King' !!


some o me fav u2br's - in celebration of good calle todayye




















femalzse is gr8 !!


that is all,

gl

[Enoch Von Clausewitz]

in 1,47 Lingfield, Enoch he thinke jolly is opposable.

McLean House has never won o'er a mile.. this might not be true run race... if held up, could be unlucky in running, etc,,,

chance : risk fiver in total €2: Lay for 3-places @ ~ 2/7 & €3: Lay for 2 places @ ~ 8/15

that is all,

gl

[Enoch Von Clausewitz]

nothing there. fav wins

[Enoch Von Clausewitz]

no good today,, that goese down as a: not good bold thinges day..

anyhowe, will endeavour to keep going..

Tuesday, 20th Feb


Taunton - Heavy-soft in places



2,40


WALKINGONEGGSHELLS 12/1 NB ~ WIN + EW

not sure about heavy conditions... has benefit of two hurdles' outinges, is previous CD 2nd from penultimate outingge.. f//t hood as well to aid cause.. enough to like


on t'other hand, methhinkes le jollie could be vulnerable here. Golden Move ~8/13 might be held up here on first go over hurdles; will possibly have too much ground to make up late on... or somethinge like thattte depending on price, will go win lay(s) / place-lay(s) .. looks win-lay bet to me up to evs, anyhoo


verdikkte: Walkingoneggshells €5 win + €5 e/w

Gl

[Enoch Von Clausewitz]

Market Rasen


Soft-heavy in places


3.25 JACKSBAR 16/1 EW... just the two places here.. this one was much bigger price earlier, but still okay... should be ready to go on third start; have me a feeling this one will like ground and jushte hope she can put it all togetherre heeyah 2dayye


verdict: Jacksbar €3 e/w


gL

[Enoch Von Clausewitz]

tomorrow,

Wednesday, 21st Feb


Kempton - Standard to slow


5,30

MONTEROSA 4/1 WIN

appeals at prices. looks strong stayerre

GL

[Enoch Von Clausewitz]

tomorrow, Thursday 22nd Feb


Newcastle - Standard


6,0'c


Paper has Cover Up as 5/4 shot.. this one was a facile winner lto at the course when winning a CD Cl4. this race looks better.... noggin tells me this one's a ~6/4 shot and has ~70% of being in first two here

am thinking fav is more of a 6furlong horse possibly.. if i was on the fence, i'd prolly rule favourite out owing to his having the one box,, might just find himself in wrong place early on...


leaving Gosden horse alone here... in a race which looks open otherwise, will look elsewhere and go with two picks what are (currently) e/w prices..


CLEARPOINT ~7/1 €2 win + €2 ew . POCKLEY ~ 14/1 €2 win + €2 ew


gL

[Enoch Von Clausewitz]

......and a reason to gette uppe/knock about on Friday




Friday, 23rd Feb


Wolverhampton - Standard


5,30 : 7F Class 6 H'cap


got three pickes here - which is too muche generally; but, every now and then




ALMODOVAR DEL RIO 7/2 €3 WIN , BEYLERBEYI 4/1 €5 WIN & €3 EW on SPARKLE IN HIS EYE 25/1

thatte is all,

GL

[Enoch Von Clausewitz]

not much lately,

keep goinge


Southwell, Sat, 24th Feb


2,45




BEDFORD FLYER 25/1 EW NAP

seems massive price to me this one... has a draw in box four what luuks goode here,,,, nost theses likes to le\ad and might tekk each otherre on too early - dat's the thinking... and formerre CD winner @Bedforde Flyerre can pounce from juste off ye pace: simpleszze

gl

[Enoch Von Clausewitz]

nothingge doing lately,


have Sunday's one foundde yay!

will post up tomorrer


thT is all,

Gl

[Enoch Von Clausewitz]

not much lately,

keep goinge


Southwell, Sat, 24th Feb


2,45




BEDFORD FLYER 25/1 EW NAP

seems massive price to me this one... has a draw in box four what luuks goode here,,,, nost theses likes to le\ad and might tekk each otherre on too early - dat's the thinking... and formerre CD winner @Bedforde Flyerre can pounce from juste off ye pace: simpleszze

gl

and on that Southwell 2,45 race, the fav, Clarendon House ~10/11, mightn't have it all his owne waye here... drawn in box nine which don't appear here nor there.... horse has never won any race with double digitte runneres in it thoughhe...

.... horses no's 2, 5, 10 & 11 here are also ones what like to lead, and most these should have some sort chance a furlong/1.5 furlonges out,,, fav can be keengoing sometimes an all,,, even if he is 'best horse in race' , he could be ye pro'e'bial 'unlucky loserre' here - on account of he may notte gette to lead, or get the splits when he wants them,,

i'll prolly do win lay @ ~ evs , 2-place lay @ ~ 1/2 and 3-place layye @ ~1/6

smth like that

gi'e an s/o to anotherre up and comingk youtoober



verry informative - topics include fung shwayye and tidying uppe, 'onya @Bronte !!

that's all

gL

[Enoch Von Clausewitz]

keep ball rollingge....


Sunday, 25th February, 2024



Herefordde- Soft-heavy in places



2,40

Kel Du Large is ~ 4/6 paper fav.. couldn't have won eitherre of his Bumperres (on good and heavy ground) any easier, butte this first go over hurdles...

...ground shouldn't be any kind of issue here; but I feel <going on 'breeding' angles hyahhe > that this is one what needs to lead to go well, and it being the 4yo's firsste go over the stix, then maybe just maybe he's vulnerahbleh .... of the ones what have raced, some have never ran in a hurdles' race; point is me don't know what makes it/is likely to make it....

looks good for win and 2-place lay this one, and possibly 3 & 4 as well....


even if Kel Du Large does run a decent race, then regardless; on my assessment of G. Moore horse here, KALIF D'AIRY ~3/1 WIN NAP, the Authorized geldingge can run massive race here... has had two runs to date and was only beaten ~a dozen lengths on first (of two in total races) hurdles' outingge.. that was Class3 at Newbury on soft.. was held up then on soft ground.. should definitely be stayingge on late and well, and heavy ground shouldst also eminently suitable be..

Nigel Twiston Davies horse also may welle go well here.. JEWEL EYED RUDY ~25/1 EW, has only had the one run to date.. that was a Bumper on better ground... was an unfancied last of six that day,,, might want further in time, but if ready then the ground should at least be perfect and should be capable of runninge into a place or even winne.. don't know what'll happen yette


that is all,


g'L

[Enoch Von Clausewitz]

resste ye slightly uneasy folkes Monday's pick is foundde goes at Plumpton and that fixturre be's subjecttio to a 'precautionary' <inspection>


it's a nappe too !! yayye

anotherre "shoutoutte'


the good and great Robyn








some choones for thisse eve










that's all