Storm Ciaran 1st-2nd November, heavy rainfall - flooding very likely

[windows7]

Very heavy rainfall is forecast for southern counties, which is very likely to cause flooding due to already saturated ground. Hopefully this won't be as bad as forecast, the ground is saturated enough as it is with the recent rainfall. Currently looks weaker on ECM, though GFS is showing a lot of rain in the east.

[CelticRambler]

Here in France, the forecast of most severe weather events is handled in a relatively low-key fashion, as we've seen it all before and people are generally quite sensible.

This week it's different. Our Minister for the Interior this evening has issued a "shelter in place" advisory for everyone for Wednesday night; with an additional warning "if you really have to go out, keep well away from any trees and water courses."

Rail services in the North West (Brittany/Normandy/Picardy) for the same evening have already been cancelled and an additional 3200 fire service workers have been mobilised. This is expected to be at least as bad as Storm Xynthia in 1999 ... and that was bad.

[Leg End Reject]

I've been following the weather forum on Boards, it looks like Ireland will escape the worst of this as it bypasses us to the south (but Cork looks dodgy again).

France looks set to take a hammering, time to bring the kittens and cats in CR.

[CelticRambler]

If the winds end up coming from the south-west, the kittens might already be in the best place ... and I might be joining them. Don't think my roof can take much more of these >80km/h winds we've had so much of over the last year.

[Fugue]

Cork is fecking saturated. What an October.

[CelticRambler]

Hmmm ... a decision will be made "very soon" about whether or not issue a mandatory evacuation order for the Ile de Noirmoutier in the Bay of Biscay. That's a 50km² island with a resident population of about 20,000 and one of the most popular seaside destinations in Western France. That's a lot of people for one bridge (which is to be closed tonight).

[jmayo]

Hmmm ... a decision will be made "very soon" about whether or not issue a mandatory evacuation order for the Ile de Noirmoutier in the Bay of Biscay. That's a 50km² island with a resident population of about 20,000 and one of the most popular seaside destinations in Western France. That's a lot of people for one bridge (which is to be closed tonight).

What's the story with Ile de Re and Ile de Oleron.

I presume the Pont Ile de Re is shut at times like this?

I also know ile de Re have high sea banks protecting the land so presume they are liable to flooding.

Maybe Ronan O'Gara will have to put up camp at La Rochelais for a while.

[CelticRambler]

What's the story with Ile de Re and Ile de Oleron.

I presume the Pont Ile de Re is shut at times like this?

On this occasion, the story is "nothing special". The worst of the winds will pass somewhat to the north, and those islands are fairly well used to wild Atlantic storms (especially since Xynthia). The bridge is being worked on at the moment, and apparently the workers complained that the temporary flood defences were making life difficult for them, so they were removed.

In the end, Noirmoutier is/will not be subject to a mandatory evacuation order, but all tourists are being advised to leave. The bridge is being kept open as long as the winds are less than 120km/h. It's the sticky-out bit of Brittany that's forecast to bear the brunt of the storm, so there's a red weather warning in force there; the rest of us are under an orange alert.

[kadman]

Nail the cats paws to the floorboards, that way he wont blow away

[CelticRambler]

Floorboards?

What are they, and what does one do with them?

[kadman]

Mans best friend is a dog, they wont desert you. Furry littles balls of fluff will feck off the minute they get a smell of the neighbours opening a tin of salmon for their lunch. No loyalty from a cat.

Let Ciaran move them off yer doorstep with a single puff

[isha]

France looks like it is getting or got a bad storm.
I'm glad for all my family in Cork and Wexford that it looks to have missed them.

[CelticRambler]

The morning after the night before ... For us, it wasn't any worse than many a recent storm. For the Bretons, though

That forecast of 150km/h winds and 10m high waves turned out to be a bit on the low side - the winds came in at 170-200km/h (and still howling through at 150-ish), and the waves topped 20m before crashing ashore. A million people (?households) are without power, and in the département of Finistère, until further notice, the use of any non-emergency services motor vehicle on any road is prohibited.

[kadman]

Hey CR, we hope things are all good for you and the kittens.

[CelticRambler]

All good, K. Five of the six waiting for their breakfast this morning.
And no more of the roof at ground level than there was at the end of last week.

Mans best friend is a dog, they wont desert you. Furry littles balls of fluff will feck off the minute they get a smell of the neighbours opening a tin of salmon for their lunch. No loyalty from a cat.

I thought this man's best friend was the formerMrsCR; she's the one who went off in search of the neighbour's salmon. My faithful Cymbeline (half-Siamese, tortiseshell-and-white) on the other hand was there before the other wan became MrsCR and was still here after she left, despite moving house twice and country once. 18 years - the longest relationship I've had with another female, apart from my mother.

[kadman]

So no damage from Ciaran then at the moment?

[CelticRambler]

Only to my To Do List timetable, on account of needing to split my workspace over three locations. But it's been like that for a fortnight already.

[kadman]

Only to my To Do List timetable, on account of needing to split my workspace over three locations. But it's been like that for a fortnight already.

I said it before, you need to spend less time dancing and more time property maintenance.

[CelticRambler]

I said it before, you need to spend less time dancing and more time property maintenance.

It's not the dancing that causes the delays - it's the going away for two, three or four weeks at a time, pretending that I care about being a productive member of society.

Anyway, I've just watched a report on the situation in Brittany two days later. Still more than 300k without electricity, and some will continue to be without it for at least another day or two or three. A few of the interviews in the reports highlighted how the modern, energy-efficient, "connected" lifestyle that we're all supposed to aspire to has no resilience. One family are literally living in the dark all day and all night because their fancy electric shutters won't open; another has no heat of any kind because they rely on a heat pump and an immersion.

There's been a run on portable generators in all the hardware stores in the region. Funny that: one severe winter storm (of the kind that's forecast to become more regular in the decades ahead) and everyone immediately switches back to dinosaur juice.

[CelticRambler]

"Kee-rrhan" has been and gone, today it's Domingos who's messing things up. Less violent winds ("only" 50-80km/h") but coming from the south, so more damaging as it lifts the tiles and drives the rain onto the timbers underneath. The kittens have had to abandon their bailing twine bed as the wind and rain are now whipping around the corner and ruffling their furriness more than they can bear.

[dawg]

Well done on surviving The Ciaran.

Pray tell us what is the name of this stuff that decends on La Rochelle ?



edit : didnt think the Gubu software would open the link ... sorry !

[CelticRambler]

Well done on surviving The Ciaran.

Ciarán was nothing compared to what's going on outside at the moment. Power went out half an hour ago ... 143 ongoing incidents in our area, according to the network website. Might have it back in time for breakfast, they say.

If I sleep on the floor, will I have those lucid dreams? That'd make up for not having YouTube.

[CelticRambler]

The provisional bill for Ciarán and Domingos in France has come in this week: 1.3billion. Not including the uncountable costs, like about a dozen schools in Brittany remaining closed until further notice, and several townlands in the Pas de Calais effectively uninhabitable due to flooding.

The last four weeks have seen an all-time record rainfall for the country as a whole, with a total of 215 centimetres recorded. The level in my frogpond - fed almost entirely by rainfall - has risen by over a metre in about the same period. It'd have been more, but the strong winds and relatively warm temperatures (until a fortnight ago) have kept the evaporation rate exceptionally high.