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Estimate of undetected Covid cases

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schmittel
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Estimate of undetected Covid cases

#1

Post by schmittel »

A teacher in my daughter's play school tested positive last week, so all other teachers/parents/kids in the class got tested (against HSE guidelines I know) and revealed a number of other asymptomatic cases. This got me thinking about the number of undetected cases, so I had a look round and unsurprisingly there is a fair bit of research attempting to quantify this.

The most recent and accessible I could find was the CDC who estimate that from February 2020–September 2021, only 1 in 4, or 25%, of all infections were reported.

I actually think this is a reason for considerable optimism if true, and assuming the same holds for Ireland because it means that we are far closer to herd immunity than the official figures would suggest.

The only way to get past covid is herd immunity, and it is clear now the current crop of "vaccines" are not going to get us there via immunization, however they are providing a safety net to the seriousness of the consequences in getting to herd immunity via infection and subsequent recovery.

The 1 in 4 estimate means that 2 million odd people have natural immunity and that number is growing by about 20,000 daily. Inevitably there will come a point when the virus runs out of steam, and the undetected estimate suggests we'll get to that point sooner rather than later.

And furthermore, is it possible that this explains the relentless push to get every last man, woman and child injected even in the face of overwhelming evidence that it does not reduce infection/transmission?

Perhaps, if everyone was vaccinated, the fact it does not reduce infection/transmission will even help. If we got to as near as possible to 100% coverage, the government could legitimately say "We're going to shield the vulnerable, remove all restrictions and let it rip. We'll have herd immunity by Paddy's Day, knock yourselves out!"

I doubt really believe this is the strategy, but I wish it were. It would at least explain some of the current messaging, the total lunacy of which is hard to understand.

A question for the fit and healthy fully vaccinated:

If the government came out tomorrow and said "Load up on your boosters lads, and go about your business care free, ditch the masks and the social distancing if you wish, we're going to let it rip to try and achieve herd immunity" would you support the strategy?

(Obviously this assumes there are some measures in place to protect elderly/vulnerable/underlying health issues)
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Scotty
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Re: Estimate of undetected Covid cases

#2

Post by Scotty »

Around 25% of all cases are detected? That seems very high. I would have guessed it was more like 5-10%.
schmittel
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Re: Estimate of undetected Covid cases

#3

Post by schmittel »

Scotty wrote: Tue Nov 23, 2021 11:01 pm Around 25% of all cases are detected? That seems very high. I would have guessed it was more like 5-10%.
My first impression was it seems high too, but those are the CDC figures. I saw other studies higher and lower but nothing as mainstream or recent.

But if it is 5-10% we should be very close to herd immunity already. And would strengthen the argument for letting it rip.
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isha
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Re: Estimate of undetected Covid cases

#4

Post by isha »

Two things
1. It vastly lowers the Infection Fatality Rate (see below)
Ireland had about 1100 deaths in April 2020 and about 3500 recorded cases in March 2020. Either the CFR was 30% or much more logically we missed 100,000 if not 100s of 1000s of cases when SARS COV 2 first swept in. I remember a particular friend before we knew what was ahead who was a sweating shivering red faced heap of streaming misery, still in work joking with us and dribbling all over us - he was definitely a missed Covid case and we were all blissfully unaware and ripping the piss out of him. I know, nice 😊

And
2. It gives some credence to the thesis of cross reactive immunity in a significant portion of population from other coronaviruses. Some estimates are 60 to 80%. Perhaps, note perhaps!, these so called asymptomatic cases are people who are efficiently clearing the virus due to their cross reactive immunity and tests are picking up debris, or catching them early in the process of doing so.

This does not mean that Covid is not randomly dangerous for some, it unfortunately seems to be. It appears to be completely Novel or overwhelming for some immune systems and they react very badly.

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schmittel
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Re: Estimate of undetected Covid cases

#5

Post by schmittel »

isha wrote: Wed Nov 24, 2021 7:11 am 1. It vastly lowers the Infection Fatality Rate
Absolutely, and that fact also makes it a strong argument to go for natural herd immunity.

I posed the question above to the vaccinated, but how would you feel as unvaccinated if the government changed course and said "We've done all we can to mitigate the effects, now we are going to actively pursue a herd immunity strategy"

I'm partially vaccinated (the most disproportionately f*cked of all!) and I would support them. I certainly think it is preferable to the current course of action.
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isha
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Re: Estimate of undetected Covid cases

#6

Post by isha »

how would you feel as unvaccinated if the government changed course - Schmittel
I think as an unvaccinated person I just have to accept the risk of getting infected in a society where the policy is to pursue herd immunity. I am making various adaptations to my health practices to prepare for Covid, like keeping Vit D high etc. I still might come a cropper, but fcuk it I could come a cropper driving my car round the hill this morning. That's life.

My personal preference from the beginning was for us not to allow SARS COV 2 in at all - I think we failed at the first hurdle. If I had been Empress of the world at the time I would have shut down everything globally, instantly, and stamped this fcuker out of existence wherever it was. I don't like any extra morbidity burden on a species.

But now that it is here, and fortunately is not as devastating as it could easily have been in terms of death rates, then I cannot defend ruining the lives of all those very many people who weather it well almost universally.
We should have built extra capacity in during the past 2 years, even special Covid hospitals like we did sanitoriums in poorer times, and not threaten people with loss of basic human freedoms if they do not take experimental medications, and worse still, even when they do!

People sacked all over the world.
People stopped from shopping indoors.
People kept out of social life by health passports that have no epidemiological rationale.
Compulsory vaccination on pain of imprisonment on the horizon in Europe.
Aboriginal people transported to quarantine camps in Australia.

All this utter mind-binding weirdness has to stop.
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Scotty
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Re: Estimate of undetected Covid cases

#7

Post by Scotty »

schmittel wrote: Wed Nov 24, 2021 8:43 am I posed the question above to the vaccinated, but how would you feel as unvaccinated if the government changed course and said "We've done all we can to mitigate the effects, now we are going to actively pursue a herd immunity strategy"
Allowing the virus free reign, in fact, encouraging spreading infection is what you are really saying, would very quickly swamp our health service and result in a huge amount of sickness and deaths. Would it be worth it? I don't believe so.

If we're suggesting completely hypothetical scenario's, I'd rather try zero covid. Complete lockdown and the virus is gone in 2-3 weeks, theoretically anyway.
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Re: Estimate of undetected Covid cases

#8

Post by 490808 »

There are plenty of studies available online all suggest far more cases than actually reported. Here's one for Spain

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-021-90051-7
This methodology is applied to Spain and its 19 administrative regions. Our results showed that probable daily infections during the first wave were between 35 and 42 times more than those officially documented on 14 March, when the national government decreed a national lockdown and 9 times more than those documented by the updated version of the official data.
That was early on when in America similar studies considered that there were 9 times more cases than were reported. This seems to have improved later on.

Have read the conclusions (the maths and methodologies defeat me) of as many reports as I could find my takeaway was that there could still be as many as 4 times as many cases as officially reported, but at this stage I think the testing and reporting systems have improved so wouldn't expect it to be worse than x4 but quite prepared to be proved wrong.
490808
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Re: Estimate of undetected Covid cases

#9

Post by 490808 »

Scotty wrote: Wed Nov 24, 2021 9:38 am Allowing the virus free reign, in fact, encouraging spreading infection is what you are really saying, would very quickly swamp our health service and result in a huge amount of sickness and deaths. Would it be worth it? I don't believe so.

If we're suggesting completely hypothetical scenario's, I'd rather try zero covid. Complete lockdown and the virus is gone in 2-3 weeks, theoretically anyway.
I fully agree with lockdowns but I don't see an end to them or at least an end to waves of covid followed by lockdowns.
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isha
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Re: Estimate of undetected Covid cases

#10

Post by isha »

There is a bit of mumbling going on about partial lockdown in Ireland from 13th December followed by full lockdown 20th December.
I was thinking about it and conclude that it is unlikely - not long to wait for me to be proven wrong :) Roll up, buy your tickets. :lol:

The reasoning is that if Ireland locks down, with a vaccination rate of almost 95% in adults, over 90% over the age of 12, etc, we will literally be the talk of the globe. And a full on demonstration that humungous vaccine uptake does not prevent lock downs. So, I don't think they can do it.
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Scotty
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Re: Estimate of undetected Covid cases

#11

Post by Scotty »

The Continental Op wrote: Wed Nov 24, 2021 9:48 am I fully agree with lockdowns but I don't see an end to them or at least an end to waves of covid followed by lockdowns.
Ahh I do. Data around the world is showing the vaccines give a 90-95% reduction in acute sickness.

The more people take up the vaccines (and now the boosters) the less likely it is we'll need lockdowns in future. It's getting the people to take the vaccine is the problem. I've met a few people who said they won't bother with the booster. Not because they think they're harmful but because they think vaccines haven't made any difference, "sure we're still going into lockdown, they haven't worked". They don't understand that if it weren't for vaccines, we probably would never have come out of Level 5 lockdown, we'd have 10 times more in hospital and ICU than we do today. They're the same people who think lockdowns don't work. :( :shock: :?
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Scotty
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Re: Estimate of undetected Covid cases

#12

Post by Scotty »

isha wrote: Wed Nov 24, 2021 10:04 am The reasoning is that if Ireland locks down, with a vaccination rate of almost 95% in adults,
This is only if you count all people who have ever been fully vaccinated. The reality is, if it's been 6 months since you received your second dose then you can no longer be considered 'fully vaccinated' (until you've had your booster).
Last edited by Scotty on Wed Nov 24, 2021 10:09 am, edited 1 time in total.
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isha
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Re: Estimate of undetected Covid cases

#13

Post by isha »

I do have pity for all the people in the developing world who are aged or infirm and who would definitely benefit from Covid vaccines now watching the bulk of the pharmaceutical stock being hoarded by healthy people in developed countries who are horsing extra into them.
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schmittel
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Re: Estimate of undetected Covid cases

#14

Post by schmittel »

Scotty wrote: Wed Nov 24, 2021 9:38 am Allowing the virus free reign, in fact, encouraging spreading infection is what you are really saying, would very quickly swamp our health service and result in a huge amount of sickness and deaths. Would it be worth it? I don't believe so.

If we're suggesting completely hypothetical scenario's, I'd rather try zero covid. Complete lockdown and the virus is gone in 2-3 weeks, theoretically anyway.
Unless you're prepared to lockdown the borders zero covid is a pipe dream until the rest of world eradicates it as well. There is zero chance of us locking down the borders.

By free reign I don't mean encouraging 70 year olds with cardiovascular issues and high blood pressure to hang out in Coppers. There has to be an element of common sense.

Swamp our health service? The problem seems to be in ICU where it is predominantly populated by the vulnerable with a variety of high risk characteristics. We warn the vulnerable to take extra precautions - get vaccinated, WFH, social distance, masks etc - basically keep a low profile until we get herd immunity. 20% of ICU are healthy unvaccinated - I suspect some traits could be identified here and used to warn anyone with a higher risk - weight, ethnicity etc. To everybody else recommend they get vaccinated, or keep a low profile, or take their chances.

Is our health service is going to get swamped by a disease so deadly that:
  • Has a fatality rate of less than 0.05%
    75% people who get it are largely unaware that they have it
    The vast majority of the 25% who are sick enough to be aware they do have it recover naturally without medical intervention
    We can identify in advance the minority most likely to be at risk of severe cases
    We have vaccinated almost 100% of those likely to be at risk of severe cases
    We have vaccinated nearly 80% of the entire population, regardless of risk profile.
Really? If our health service cannot handle this situation, the problem in the health service is far greater than the disease. More lockdowns and vaccine mandates are not going to fix that.
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Re: Estimate of undetected Covid cases

#15

Post by PureIsle »

All of this should have been done last June and through the Summer.
At the same time, the money should have been spent on accommodating the 'excess' sick in temporary hospitals.
All vulnerable should have been segregated when in care and those at home should have been seriously warned about the danger.
In addition all persons should have received advice, daily, on the means to boost their immune system so they had a better chance of fighting the virus.

Vaccinations, when they arrived should then have been concentrated only on the vulnerable ...... based on medical condition.

Instead we locked down the healthy; gave no advice in news bulletins about protecting yourself by boosting your immune system, and criminally moved people with Covid out of hospital and into 'care' homes where the rest of the residents were at high risk.

I am coming to the view that it is too late for herd/community immunity.
The vaccinated have had their innate immune system suppressed and new variants avoid the immune response to a particular S protein.

Maybe this Cov-2 will burn itself out just like Cov-1.
I hate to depend on that but it is some hope.

On the matter of all those excess deaths last year ...... it appears from numbers I have seen (from both official and RIP.ie) the number of excess mortality for the year is minuscule and compares favourably with the last heavy 'flu' season we had.
I suspect this year will be worse. :(
schmittel
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Re: Estimate of undetected Covid cases

#16

Post by schmittel »

Just revisiting this thread now that Omicron is to all intent and purposes having the same effect as if the government had decided just to let Covid rip.

On the 7/12/2020 - i.e just before Omicron cases started to spike - we'd had 600,000 confirmed cases in the country.

The rule of 1 in 4 being detected means we'd had an estimated 2.4 million cases, vast majority recovered.

Since then we've added officially 400k, or unofficially 1.6m.

So unofficially we've had 4m recovered cases of Covid in the country.

We're pretty close to having had 5m - one case for everybody in the audience.

If we maintain the 20k a day, unofficially 80k a day, we'll reach 5m unofficial cases in 12.5 days time.

My prediction is cases will be negligible by end of the month, and we can open up and get back to normal in February.
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Re: Estimate of undetected Covid cases

#17

Post by 316670 »

In South Africa as far as they are concerned Omicron was a gift from God, they all got it , had head cold symptoms and now life is back to normal.
We have let the hypochondriacs call the shots for too long, they had there time, and now its time to get back to normal, if you are still worried continue to follow all the restrictions, if not get to living life.
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Re: Estimate of undetected Covid cases

#18

Post by 490808 »

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Re: Estimate of undetected Covid cases

#19

Post by Hairy-Joe »

We won't be able to reasonably accurately estimate the number of unreported cases until we see the cases dropping. Then we can see what portion of the curve is missing and try to estimate the max of the missing portion.

I think that at the moment, the testing system is maxed out and all we are seeing is the "noise" of the testing max.
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Re: Estimate of undetected Covid cases

#20

Post by 490808 »

Hairy-Joe wrote: Tue Jan 11, 2022 6:29 pm We won't be able to reasonably accurately estimate the number of unreported cases until we see the cases dropping. Then we can see what portion of the curve is missing and try to estimate the max of the missing portion.

I think that at the moment, the testing system is maxed out and all we are seeing is the "noise" of the testing max.
Only if they don't cut back on testing because cases are dropping. Don't know why that occured to me but its the sort of daft thing that politicians might do.
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isha
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Re: Estimate of undetected Covid cases

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Post by isha »

From the start of this whole thing I have never been able to understand why the govt have not been doing ongoing large-scale population-wide serology testing to see what are the true levels of antibodies in population at any given time. Baffles me why it has not been a thing. It would have been so informative.
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Re: Estimate of undetected Covid cases

#22

Post by 490808 »

isha wrote: Tue Jan 11, 2022 6:52 pm From the start of this whole thing I have never been able to understand why the govt have not been doing ongoing large-scale population-wide serology testing to see what are the true levels of antibodies in population at any given time. Baffles me why it has not been a thing. It would have been so informative.
I'm fairly sure there is a way of testing a gallup poll type group to get some meaningful data but no one seems to be bothering?

(guessed what you meant btw but still looked up serology just in case - SARS-CoV-2 antibody (often referred to as serology) tests look for antibodies in a sample to determine if an individual has had a past infection with the virus that causes COVID-19. COVID-19 antibody tests can help identify people who may have been infected with the SARS-CoV-2 virus or have recovered from a COVID-19 infection.)
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isha
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Re: Estimate of undetected Covid cases

#23

Post by isha »

The Continental Op wrote: Tue Jan 11, 2022 7:02 pm I'm fairly sure there is a way of testing a gallup poll type group to get some meaningful data but no one seems to be bothering?

(guessed what you meant btw but still looked up serology just in case - SARS-CoV-2 antibody (often referred to as serology) tests look for antibodies in a sample to determine if an individual has had a past infection with the virus that causes COVID-19. COVID-19 antibody tests can help identify people who may have been infected with the SARS-CoV-2 virus or have recovered from a COVID-19 infection.)
As far as I know one would have to take a proper blood sample. The pin prick tests which one can do in a chemist or get your own test kits with small lancet are just for recent antibodies. But I think covid-specific memory T cells can be picked up with proper blood tests. To be honest I am not fully up on it but there are differing levels of test required for longer immunity Abs detection. We should have been doing different kinds of serology analysis all along. Weird we did not.
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Re: Estimate of undetected Covid cases

#24

Post by schmittel »

Just listening to the Taoiseach confirming removal of most the restrictions, and I can't help thinking that the motivation behind NPHET's advice is:

"We're as confident as we can be that Omicron is relatively mild. Given the volume of total infections + the vaccination rate there is no better time to let it rip, go for it, it will pay off in the long term"

If that is the case, well done them.
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