The "Nu"/Omicron Variant. Bad news?

[Cyclepath]

The figures suggest otherwise. Last month, 80,000 cases in Ireland, 30,000 of them from unvaccinated. The only reason 5% of the population can make up 37.5% of all cases is if the transmission rate is higher in that cohort.

My point was that the vaccine does not prevent infection. I'm not arguing against vaccination! I certainly think it provides some level of protection but there are clearly many vaccinated folks getting Covid, both Delta and Omicron.

The figures you quote above imply that 50,000 vaccinated people caught Covid... I'd like to think the vast majority of them avoided a hospital visit.

[Banshee Bones]

There are people who still claim that the second panel was the expected outcome all along

[isha]

There are people who still claim that the second panel was the expected outcome all along

I even remember the good old not so long ago days when the "unvaccinated" were being blamed for there being more virus around which would lead to more mutation potential.

[Scotty]

My point was that the vaccine does not prevent infection. I'm not arguing against vaccination! I certainly think it provides some level of protection but there are clearly many vaccinated folks getting Covid, both Delta and Omicron.

The figures you quote above imply that 50,000 vaccinated people caught Covid... I'd like to think the vast majority of them avoided a hospital visit.

It absolutely prevents infection. Out of 3,800,000 vaccinated people, only 50,000 (1.3%) got covid last month (ie. Breakthrough infections), but out of 270,000 unvaccinated people, 29,500 (10.9%) got covid. The only conclusion that can be drawn is that the vaccines provide enormous protect from transmission. There's over a 90% difference in transmission rates between the two.

No, it's not airtight by any means but it shows there is an enormous reduction of transmission.

More than 10% of all unvaccinated over 5's in Ireland tested positive for covid last month. That's a staggering statistic. PLUS, you've got to bear in mind that many of the 'vaccinated' have lost their protection raising their figures higher.

[schmittel]

It absolutely prevents infection. Out of 3,800,000 vaccinated people, only 50,000 (1.3%) got covid last month (ie. Breakthrough infections), but out of 270,000 unvaccinated people, 29,500 (10.9%) got covid. The only conclusion that can be drawn is that the vaccines provide enormous protect from transmission. There's over a 90% difference in transmission rates between the two.

No, it's not airtight by any means but it shows there is an enormous reduction of transmission.

More than 10% of all unvaccinated over 5's in Ireland tested positive for covid last month. That's a staggering statistic. PLUS, you've got to bear in mind that many of the 'vaccinated' have lost their protection raising their figures higher.

What is the status of the other 1m or so people?

[490808]

What is the status of the other 1m or so people?

Most are children?

[schmittel]

Most are children?

Scotty said 10% of over 5s. That’s what confused me.

[Cyclepath]

It absolutely prevents infection. Out of 3,800,000 vaccinated people, only 50,000 (1.3%) got covid last month (ie. Breakthrough infections), but out of 270,000 unvaccinated people, 29,500 (10.9%) got covid. The only conclusion that can be drawn is that the vaccines provide enormous protect from transmission. There's over a 90% difference in transmission rates between the two.

No, it's not airtight by any means but it shows there is an enormous reduction of transmission.

More than 10% of all unvaccinated over 5's in Ireland tested positive for covid last month. That's a staggering statistic. PLUS, you've got to bear in mind that many of the 'vaccinated' have lost their protection raising their figures higher.

I'd love for the situation to be simple but the UKHSA surveillance report shows reinfections rising sharply as Omicron takes hold. This may be down to naive immune systems in the unvaccinated but is also probably due to the fall off in effectivity of the vaccines.

Like I said I'm not arguing against vaccination but the situation is nuanced. Covid vaccines aren't working the way an MMR or diphtheria vaccine might work. I don't think unvaccinated people are the problem here in the way that they would be with measles etc. Variants are most likely to arise in people with compromised immune systems and Covid is most likely to harm those same people.

[Scotty]

I'd love for the situation to be simple but the UKHSA surveillance report shows reinfections rising sharply as Omicron takes hold. This may be down to naive immune systems in the unvaccinated but is also probably due to the fall off in effectivity of the vaccines.

Yes, you're correct, omicron is causing a rise in breakthrough infections and the figures above are up to late November so don't include the latest stats where omicron will be having a big impact. Almost half the population have had their boosters now though so we should see the effect of that soon too.

[Scotty]

Scotty said 10% of over 5s. That’s what confused me.

Sorry, I thought we were doing the over 5's already. I should have said over 12's.

[schmittel]

It absolutely prevents infection. Out of 3,800,000 vaccinated people, only 50,000 (1.3%) got covid last month (ie. Breakthrough infections), but out of 270,000 unvaccinated people, 29,500 (10.9%) got covid. The only conclusion that can be drawn is that the vaccines provide enormous protect from transmission. There's over a 90% difference in transmission rates between the two.

No, it's not airtight by any means but it shows there is an enormous reduction of transmission.

More than 10% of all unvaccinated over 5's in Ireland tested positive for covid last month. That's a staggering statistic. PLUS, you've got to bear in mind that many of the 'vaccinated' have lost their protection raising their figures higher.

At first glance something about those figures doesn't seem right, largely because I agree that if 10% of all unvaccinated people over 12 tested positive last month it is a truly staggering statistic.

But if that were true, then it is actually a cause for celebration.

We have quite a small unvaccinated population in Ireland, and if 10% of them got covid last month, given all those who have got it before last month, and the rate of new vaccinations, we're fast running out of unvaccinated people to infect.

ICU numbers are slowly declining after a month in which 10% of the unvaccinated got covid, they are currently under 100 which whilst not ideal is manageable. Given the age profile of the unvaccinated the less of them remaining to get covid, the less likely they are to require intensive care.

Our only way out of this is herd immunity, and to do that without carnage, we need the unvaccinated to get infected without troubling the ICUs. If they're getting infected at the rate of 10% a month surely that is a good thing?