The "Nu"/Omicron Variant. Bad news?

[peasant]

I don't know what flu jab your GP has been given you that you get it every few months

Each to their own ..personally I'm now on my third dose of Moderna (Curevax or whatever it's called) and should fourth one be needed I'll take that one also.

I have also stocked up on FFP2 masks for use in more crowded/inside situations.

Omicron in GB is doubling every 1.8 days and so far the jury is still out as to it being somewhat benign or not.

Until that's clear ...better safe than sorry.

[Banshee Bones]

Each to their own ..personally I'm now on my third dose of Moderna (Curevax or whatever it's called) and should fourth one be needed I'll take that one also.

I have also stocked up on FFP2 masks for use in more crowded/inside situations.

Omicron in GB is doubling every 1.8 days and so far the jury is still out as to it being somewhat benign or not.

Until that's clear ...better safe than sorry.

A vaccine that needs to be reapplied every three months is not a vaccine, and if they didnt know it had a three month efficacy then they have no actual clue as to whatever its medium to long term effect...but better to be safe than sorry.

Yes, there was a confirmed case where the Omicron has now actually killed somebody in the UK

Stay at home indefinitely, better to be safe...

[peasant]

A vaccine that needs to be reapplied every three months is not a vaccine...

Unlike many other people, it was clear to me and my unscientific mind from the start of this mess that it would be next to impossible to create a fully effective "kill the virus dead" vaccine at the first go. Not after such short time, with very little data and not against a virus that is so wildly circulating and mutating.

The kind of vaccine you're looking for will only be able to be made a few years into the outbreak, after tons of data has been collected, analysed, tried and tested ...and so many people have died.

Simply put ...I don't want to be one of them. I'll happily take my medicine...over and over again if needs be.

Your outlook on this whole mess is different. I respect that. But I do not and will never share it. Please accept that also.

As far as omicron is corned ...we still know nothing for sure other than it is a pretty successful fast spreader. Remember, those hospitalisations and deaths (if they come) occur with a significant time lag. And yes, for myself, I'd rather be safe than sorry until we know for sure.

[PureIsle]

Unlike many other people, it was clear to me and my unscientific mind from the start of this mess that it would be next to impossible to create a fully effective "kill the virus dead" vaccine at the first go. Not after such short time, with very little data and not against a virus that is so wildly circulating and mutating.

The kind of vaccine you're looking for will only be able to be made a few years into the outbreak, after tons of data has been collected, analysed, tried and tested ...and so many people have died.

Simply put ...I don't want to be one of them. I'll happily take my medicine...over and over again if needs be.

Your outlook on this whole mess is different. I respect that. But I do not and will never share it. Please accept that also.

As far as omicron is corned ...we still know nothing for sure other than it is a pretty successful fast spreader. Remember, those hospitalisations and deaths (if they come) occur with a significant time lag. And yes, for myself, I'd rather be safe than sorry until we know for sure.

If you accept there will be variants which avoid the action of the present 'vaccine' then you probably also accept there can never be a vaccine like the present one that stops infection due to virus mutation.

Manufacturer already indicated that a three dose regimen for the Omicron variant is likely some time next year.
The UK has already ordered 140 million doses for 2022/23 so I guess they see this as an ongoing scheme of regular jabs throughout the years to come.

[Cyclepath]

So far the indications about Omicron from SA are that it's hugely transmissible but hospital admission ratio is very low. The case fatality ratio has dropped through the floor, so although there might be a lag between infection and death, you would be already seeing admissions to ICU/ventilation etc which isn't the case. You can see this stuff on Our World in Data

My prediction is that it it will be almost impossible to function in society and not catch it. However if you do catch it you're highly unlikely to need a hospital. If you're vaccinated you'll barely notice it - something like a common cold. If not then you may have flu symptoms, or may even need a hospital but the survival rate will be far higher than for Delta.

This is based on all the current but admittedly early data - but my own belief is that Omicron is our passport out of this nightmare.

[Cyclepath]

Latest study from HKUMed indicates that Omicron replicates up to 70 times faster in the bronchus but 10 times less efficiently in the lungs which may account for the drop/stability in hospital admissions.

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All good news if it manages to supplant the Delta variant but current evidence is not clear enough to say that yet.

[Guburnor]

I have moved a few general vaccine chat posts to the megathread if anybody is looking for them.

[peasant]

I quoted it in the tracker thread, posting here again for discussion.

One of the worst case scenarios predicts that at the peak of the wave 25% of the population could be in self isolation because they are close contacts.

That's a hefty number.
now ..these people probably won't all get sick themselves, but they certainly won't be mixing, mingling or working.
Which is what we want to stop the virus ...but with every production and service facility (never mind hospitals) deprived of a quarter of their workforce ...we could be in for interesting times.

Toilet paper hoarding times are coming again

[CelticRambler]

Unlike many other people, it was clear to me and my unscientific mind from the start of this mess that it would be next to impossible to create a fully effective "kill the virus dead" vaccine at the first go. Not after such short time, with very little data and not against a virus that is so wildly circulating and mutating.

The kind of vaccine you're looking for will only be able to be made a few years into the outbreak, after tons of data has been collected, analysed, tried and tested ...and so many people have died.

To my scientific mind, with decades of experience working with coronaviruses and failed vaccines, it was clear to me that Big Pharma was not being asked "what makes you think you can beat this one when you have a 100% record of failure so far?" But it was also clear that politicians weren't going to ask that question because they themselves had to answer to an electorate that did not want to hear that there wasn't a quick-fix, silver-bullet, high-tech, hollywoodian vaccine solution.

And that's the root of the problem: across the world, ordinary "unscientific" people are demanding of the governments they elected that these mostly unscientific politicians (Angela Merkel and Leo Varadkar being two notable exceptions) fix a problem that they - the people - created. I have no great respect for what various governments have and have not done, but for once they're not really to blame. The blame lies fairly and squarely with ordinary people who want to lead a lifestyle that exposes them to the worst pandemics Mother Nature can invent, and vote (or protest) against every and any politician who tries to limit that risk.

The early signs, now, seem to indicate that Omicron is going to be better than any vaccine: it'll quickly infect all those who've declined first, second or third injections, regardless of their political beliefs, and confer at least as much protection as the several coronaviruses that cause the common cold. With a bit of luck, we'll have achieved close to 100% exposure by the end of 2022, whether through vaccination or natural infection, and scientists can then concentrate on figuring out what, exactly, is causing so many people's immune systems to go into overdrive and turning what should be nothing more than a sniffily nose into a full-blown cardio-pulmonary crisis.

[isha]

scientists can then concentrate on figuring out what, exactly, is causing so many people's immune systems to go into overdrive and turning what should be nothing more than a sniffily nose into a full-blown cardio-pulmonary crisis.

Hopefully the scientists will put aside their funding worries and biases and have the balls to ask Fauci, Daszak and all the other powerful, well-remunerated luminaries involved in funding and supporting dangerous gain of function research into viruses what it was exactly that they did when they mightily fcuked it all up this time.

[PureIsle]

To my scientific mind, with decades of experience working with coronaviruses and failed vaccines, it was clear to me that Big Pharma was not being asked "what makes you think you can beat this one when you have a 100% record of failure so far?" But it was also clear that politicians weren't going to ask that question because they themselves had to answer to an electorate that did not want to hear that there wasn't a quick-fix, silver-bullet, high-tech, hollywoodian vaccine solution.
....

I would not be so sure that the electorate were the first to introduce the idea of a quick-fix.

[490808]

I would not be so sure that the electorate were the first to introduce the idea of a quick-fix.

I would have thought it was very chicken and egg, which came first the lying politician or the electorate that believed and wanted to believe the lies?

Or put it another way the politicians are always going to tell the electorate what they want to hear.

[CelticRambler]

I would not be so sure that the electorate were the first to introduce the idea of a quick-fix.

The electorate always wants a quick fix - it's why they always vote for the politicians/party that promises the quick fix. Back in 2019, when this virus first made itself known to the world (remember that?) I discussed the challenge of implementing an appropriate disease control strategy for Ireland, the first step of which would have been to suspend ALL travel into and out of the island.

Can you imagine the almighty consternation that would have ensued if Leo Varadkar had "cancelled Christmas" in 2019 for the good of the nation? Especially when the rest of the world was turning a blind eye to the impending threat? All those ski trips cancelled, all those home-for-the-holiday re-unions cancelled, all those Amazon and AliExpress orders left waiting in a depot somewhere foreign ... FG would have been crucified at the subsequent elections.

And you only have to look at the amount of money being made by quacks and con-men, selling forty varieties of snake oil to the same electorate, to see just how desperate people are for a fix that'll allow them get back to their pandemic-encouraging behaviour as quickly as possible, science and Mother Nature be damned.

[Wibbs]

And you only have to look at the amount of money being made by quacks and con-men, selling forty varieties of snake oil to the same electorate, to see just how desperate people are for a fix that'll allow them get back to their pandemic-encouraging behaviour as quickly as possible, science and Mother Nature be damned.

Yep. Thank Christ this pandemic pathogen was the least deadly in history. Can you imagine something like a newly emerged smallpox and how that would have gone down? Though you'd still see rampant idiocy even then. History shows us that. Even in really nasty epidemics killing nigh on half of those infected, after an initial "lockdown" people are desperate to return to the comfort of their routines and the caution doesn't last long. Rinse and repeat. These pathogens evolved with us as we moved from dispersed hunter gatherer societies into agricultural ones living in much larger communities on top of each other(and pretty much all of them sprang from the same farming practices). They adapted perfectly to human nature.

[Cyclepath]

More encouraging news re. Omicron's lower hospitalization rate:

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/ ... -1.4759545

There's also an increasing decoupling of new cases Vs deaths in South Africa and the UK. Deaths are enormously lower this time round. I'm seeing plenty of hopeful signs here

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FG_0KCeWYAQCBVv.jpeg (35.04 KiB) Viewed 5263 times

[Scotty]

More encouraging news re. Omicron's lower hospitalization rate:
Deaths are enormously lower this time round. I'm seeing plenty of hopeful signs here

Enormously encouraging.

I wonder will countries like the UK and Sweden be tempted to go for heard immunity again? If it's so transmissible it should be much easier. Stop vaccines, encourage infection, disease wipes itself out in a matter of days. I'm sure they won't but I bet it's been discussed.

[PureIsle]

I wonder if this could come to pass?

THE MORE YOU VACCINATE, the more likely you are to get Omicron.

https://nakedemperor.substack.com/p/the ... vaccinated

[schmittel]

I wonder if this could come to pass?



https://nakedemperor.substack.com/p/the ... vaccinated

I've been following the UK data which is fascinating because it is very detailed, and a huge population. It has been clear for a while that in terms of case numbers the vaccinated are disproportionately effected, and it looks like omicron will make that even worse.

What is also interesting is how Ireland is so different - thus far our stats are showing are vaccines are performing much better against breakthrough infections. Either we are just trailing a little as UK had a head start or maybe Pfizer donned the green jersey for us! Time will tell I guess.

[Del.Monte]

Two years into this nonsense and the Government/HSE can't even get their act together over face masks and instead the best they can come up with is the ridiculous RSVP campaign. It's reaching the stage where it will soon be every 'man' for themselves and anarchy takes over.

[Cyclepath]

I've been following the UK data which is fascinating because it is very detailed, and a huge population. It has been clear for a while that in terms of case numbers the vaccinated are disproportionately effected, and it looks like omicron will make that even worse.

What is also interesting is how Ireland is so different - thus far our stats are showing are vaccines are performing much better against breakthrough infections. Either we are just trailing a little as UK had a head start or maybe Pfizer donned the green jersey for us! Time will tell I guess.

Is there data to show the ratio of AZ, J&J, Pfizer/Moderna jabs in the UK? Just wondering if that's a factor. But I haven't see any figures that prove a disproportionality of infections in vaccinated people. Obviously if most of the population are vaccinated then most of the cases will be among vaccinated people. The vaccine seems mainly to prevent hospitalisation - it certainly doesn't prevent infection!

[schmittel]

Is there data to show the ratio of AZ, J&J, Pfizer/Moderna jabs in the UK? Just wondering if that's a factor. But I haven't see any figures that prove a disproportionality of infections in vaccinated people. Obviously if most of the population are vaccinated then most of the cases will be among vaccinated people. The vaccine seems mainly to prevent hospitalisation - it certainly doesn't prevent infection!

I think for sure our higher rate of Pfizer might be a factor, who knows.

The interesting thing about UK figures is they publish them per 100k vaccinated and unvaxxed so you can compare like with like at a glance:

Screenshot 2021-12-22 at 10.34.45.png (139.44 KiB) Viewed 5180 times

Waning efficacy is clearly a lot to do with it as the most recent vaccinated/boosted are performing better. But the numbers from age group 30 - 60 are striking. As vaccines wane you'd expect them to wane down to zero protection meaning the figures vaccinated and unvaccinated should be broadly similar, as both have the same level of protection - ie nothing.

But in the UK ages 30 - 60 figures are suggesting vaccinated are approx twice as likely to contract covid than the unvaccinated. This is the point of the article PureIsle linked - is Antibody dependent Enhancement a thing?

If that's the case hopefully omicron will solve the problem if it does prove to be a significantly milder mutation.

[Scotty]

I wonder if this could come to pass?

THE MORE YOU VACCINATE, the more likely you are to get Omicron.

https://nakedemperor.substack.com/p/the ... vaccinated

The article, and your quoted soundbite, are a load of nonsense.

It's source is this report issued by the UK gov yesterday which the article links to. I suggest you read it.

Today we have published some early results from the Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Survey showing the characteristics of people more likely to be infected with the Omicron variant compared with the Delta variant.

It's not "You're more likely to get omicron if your vaccinated." It's "if you've been vaccinated and you still get infected, it's more likely to be the Omicron variant than the Delta variant.". There's a huge difference. I expect it's because people have already been vaccinated against delta and omicron is the more dominant variant now anyway.

The report says that if any of the below are true...

• You're a certain age...
• Come from a deprived area...
• Come from an urban area...
• From an ethnic minority...
• Have previously been infected...
• Have recently been abroad... and finally,
• Have previously been vaccinated.

Then you will more likely get the Omicron variant rather than Delta variant. Which is probably true of every cohort by now.

Note it's from a very small sample, 1700, and none of them actually tested positive for Omicron, they just think 115 of them might be Omicron.

[Scotty]

The vaccine seems mainly to prevent hospitalisation - it certainly doesn't prevent infection!

The figures suggest otherwise. Last month, 80,000 cases in Ireland, 30,000 of them from unvaccinated. The only reason 5% of the population can make up 37.5% of all cases is if the transmission rate is higher in that cohort.

[Banshee Bones]

Current situation in the Media:

[schmittel]

Enormously encouraging.

I wonder will countries like the UK and Sweden be tempted to go for heard immunity again? If it's so transmissible it should be much easier. Stop vaccines, encourage infection, disease wipes itself out in a matter of days. I'm sure they won't but I bet it's been discussed.

It's a maybe a bit early to pull the trigger on this strategy, but if UK and Sweden get into January with rising cases and falling hospitalisations/deaths I suspect they'll go for it. Makes no sense to have seriously considered it in spring 2020 and not go for herd immunity now.

I actually think if that if Omicron is less dangerous as some suspect it is negligent not to go for it now there is the opportunity with a mild variant.

We're likely to take to the overly cautious approach with restrictions to curb case numbers, boost the hell out of everyone, vaccinate all the kids etc but if that drags on for a few months whilst we're arguing about whether to show your papers to get a haircut and another variant develops which is as transmissible as Omicron and as dangerous as Alpha then we're rightly f*cked and it will be too late.