The Omicron tracker

[490808]

Todays numbers

Covid-19: 23,909 new cases reported with 10,63 hospitalised as Martin rules out mandatory vaccinations

Which is mad say we are getting 20k cases a day and RoI population is 5 Million then at that rate of infection (assuming no one gets it twice - yes I know some do) then it would only take 250days (8.3 months) for everyone here to have had Covid.

[schmittel]

Todays numbers

Covid-19: 23,909 new cases reported with 10,63 hospitalised as Martin rules out mandatory vaccinations

Which is mad say we are getting 20k cases a day and RoI population is 5 Million then at that rate of infection (assuming no one gets it twice - yes I know some do) then it would only take 250days (8.3 months) for everyone here to have had Covid.

I posted something along these lines a few months ago pre Omicron. It is estimated that 3 out of 4 cases go undetected, at the time it would have meant we were about 2.5 million who had already contracted and recovered from Covid, so it would not be long before we all have had it. That is likely to speed up substantially with Omicron. This is why if Omicron, touch wood, stays mild, it's our best route of this.

Theoretically we should reach a tipping point when herd immunity kicks in, and case numbers collapse almost overnight.

[490808]

State confirms 1 millionth Covid case, hospitalisations hit 11-month high

So if 3 out of 4 cases go undetected 4 million ie 80% of the population have already had Covid?

[schmittel]

State confirms 1 millionth Covid case, hospitalisations hit 11-month high

So if 3 out of 4 cases go undetected 4 million ie 80% of the population have already had Covid?

That's the hope, and we'll have reached five million within the next fortnight.

[Dec A Wash]

The number of cases is not exactly the same as the number of people in the population who had Covid. There are a lot of people that got Covid twice, and a few who got it three times.

[Cyclepath]

State confirms 1 millionth Covid case, hospitalisations hit 11-month high

So if 3 out of 4 cases go undetected 4 million ie 80% of the population have already had Covid?

They reckon that currently, with Omicron, many cases are undetected. So if they're finding in and around 20,000 each day then there could be up to 80,000 actual cases. If that's a genuine estimate, it'd take 12.5 days to hit everyone in theory. But that's not how it works. It doesn't take into account folks with natural immunity, folks with some measure of vaccine protection, folks infected multiple times, folks that completely isolate etc. Also there's a reverse exponential slowdown as potential uninfected candidates become more rare and we reach herd immunity. At that point the virus dies on the vine - until another significantly different variant crops up, obv

But broadly speaking we're inevitably on the way to herd immunity and the only variable of concern is management of hospital beds/ICU.

Interesting statistic is that Ireland currently has the highest case rate per 100k population in Europe (possibly worldwide) but the lowest death rate.

[Samson]

It’s probably time to accept that covid took the low hanging fruit in the first year and that’s why death rates are dropping. It’s just like a normal flu season now, killing those already on the way out. Nothing to fear for those in good health to begin with.

[Scotty]

Half a million people in Ireland may have caught Covid last week, Tony Holohan says

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/h ... 29805.html

[PureIsle]

Half a million people in Ireland may have caught Covid last week, Tony Holohan says

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/h ... 29805.html

IMO, this is good news.
At this rate it should soon be fully endemic in short time and we should be able to get back to properly normal living.

Of course our daily lives are dependent on how our officials react to this.

[PureIsle]

The number of cases is not exactly the same as the number of people in the population who had Covid. There are a lot of people that got Covid twice, and a few who got it three times.

Cases are the positive results of PCR tests and do not relate directly to Covid illness.

Huge numbers contract the virus and do not get ill or need medical treatment or hospitalisation.

[isha]

Today 74 admissions for just covid and 75 nosocomial cases from the 149 full ''admissions'' reported.

[Samson]

He must not have red the memo, he has gone of script.
He also stated on cnbc news "The two dose vaccine offers very limited protection, if any."
So what’s the point of it all anymore, just to enrich shareholders?
If you took 2-3 polio vaccines in a year and still got polio, you’d be asking questions, but Pfizer’s getting a pass on this. Madness!

[490808]

Back to tracking Omnicron

Further 19,290 new cases of Covid-19 confirmed

The department added that "Given the current high incidence, the daily case numbers are based on positive SARS-CoV-2 results uploaded to the HSE COVID Care Tracker the preceding day. This data is provisional."

[765489]

It’s probably time to accept that covid took the low hanging fruit in the first year and that’s why death rates are dropping. It’s just like a normal flu season now, killing those already on the way out. Nothing to fear for those in good health to begin with.

It may be just a flu now with the Omicron variant but a work colleague of mine was on a ventilator for over 6 weeks and passed away just before Christmas. Early 50s so your talking out of your arse with that post.

[isha]

It may be just a flu now with the Omicron variant but a work colleague of mine was on a ventilator for over 6 weeks and passed away just before Christmas. Early 50s so your talking out of your arse with that post.

It is absolutely true that Covid can randomly affect some healthy people very badly and that is frightening. It has been a horrid time.
I find it very unnerving, personally, that this Gain of Function concoction became loose, and I think we do not know enough about this virus.
But the overall infection fatality rate is reasonably low and the stratification of death risk tends very much towards older people with comorbidities. We cannot keep denying this. Sure, we might have a small possibility to die from it but what can we do about that now that it exists.

I have lost 3 friends this past 2 years of the pandemic.. Friends, not just people in a wider circle but people close to me that I miss. One in his 50s through suicide, one in her 30s and one in her 50s through cancer. As I have gotten older almost every year is like this, a good friend dying, or getting badly sick or having an accident. The horrible fact of life is death exists. I don't like that fact anymore than the next person.
But we cannot continue to throw all of society into chaos for one cause of mortality because we have become afraid of living.

[765489]

It is absolutely true that Covid can randomly affect some healthy people very badly and that is frightening. It has been a horrid time.
I find it very unnerving, personally, that this Gain of Function concoction became loose, and I think we do not know enough about this virus.
But the overall infection fatality rate is reasonably low and the stratification of death risk tends very much towards older people with comorbidities. We cannot keep denying this. Sure, we might have a small possibility to die from it but what can we do about that now that it exists.

I have lost 3 friends this past 2 years of the pandemic.. Friends, not just people in a wider circle but people close to me that I miss. One in his 50s through suicide, one in her 30s and one in her 50s through cancer. As I have gotten older almost every year is like this, a good friend dying, or getting badly sick or having an accident. The horrible fact of life is death exists. I don't like that fact anymore than the next person.
But we cannot continue to throw all of society into chaos for one cause of mortality because we have become afraid of living.

I'm living with covid and have been since the pandemic started, I never agreed with lock downs. But I will call out people who refer to people I've known personally who have died from this as "low hanging fruit".

[isha]

Fair point N

[Samson]

It may be just a flu now with the Omicron variant but a work colleague of mine was on a ventilator for over 6 weeks and passed away just before Christmas. Early 50s so your talking out of your arse with that post.

And you knew all of the colleagues medical history?
Look at the number of recorded deaths information released by nations statistics offices for the last 10 years, no increase to be seen during this pandemic.
Its all there for those who want to find out for themselves and not rely on the media , who we know are sensationalists to increase viewers.

[peasant]

aaand back to the point of this thread ...

12.01. The Journal

HEALTH OFFICIALS HAVE reported an additional 20,909 new cases of Covid-19 in Ireland today.

As of 8am this morning, 1,055 people were in hospital with the virus, 92 of whom were receiving treatment in intensive care.

[isha]

Fergal O Doherty on Twitter tracking the external Covid admissions and nosocomial Covid in hospital settings over past 5 months. The percentage you can see on right side of graph. It shows hospital acquired at about 45% for past few weeks.

[PureIsle]

It would be prudent to remember that a positive from a PCR test is not a Covid case, but an indication that the person was exposed to the virus at some point ..... putting aside the likelihood that a percentage of those results are false.

Is there historical data on the numbers being hospitalised due to Covid illness not just PCR positive?

Of course even those are greater than they should be because of the refusal to treat someone with symptoms by the majority of general practitioners - my own included.
I did ask what treatment I would be given if I showed symptoms of Covid, only to be told "nothing" and I would not be seen, but I should isolate at home and if I get bad enough go to the Emergency Department of the local hospital.

It is no wonder so many people are in hospital because of the virus!

[isha]

Another Fergal O Doherty chart. This time link between ICU and CASES since start of pandemic. Shows effect of Omicron.

20220113_074232.jpg (78.38 KiB) Viewed 6081 times

[PureIsle]

Another Fergal O Doherty chart. This time link between ICU and CASES since start of pandemic. Shows effect of Omicron.

20220113_074232.jpg

I am increasingly frustrated by charts like this.
As I understand it that blue line shows the results of PCR testing.
It does not show the number of Covid illness.
Without illness you will not end up in ICU!

Some meaningful charts from the HSE would be nice.
Maybe showing
number of PCR tests done
percentage of those with positive results
percentage of the positives who developed Covid
percentage of the ill who required
1. medical care
2. who required hospitalisation
3. who required ICU
4. and percentage who recovered or died.

It seems that is too much to expect ....... or else I am completely at fault for not seeing such data in an accessible form.

[Scotty]

I am increasingly frustrated by charts like this.
As I understand it that blue line shows the results of PCR testing.
It does not show the number of Covid illness.
Without illness you will not end up in ICU!

Some meaningful charts from the HSE would be nice.
Maybe showing
number of PCR tests done
percentage of those with positive results
percentage of the positives who developed Covid
percentage of the ill who required
1. medical care
2. who required hospitalisation
3. who required ICU
4. and percentage who recovered or died.

It seems that is too much to expect ....... or else I am completely at fault for not seeing such data in an accessible form.

Why does it not surprise me that two years into this, considering all the nonsense and crap you cite as sources, you don't actually know where to find the official HSE data?

[PureIsle]

Why does it not surprise me that two years into this, considering all the nonsense and crap you cite as sources, you don't actually know where to find the official HSE data?

hehehehehe

You really are consistent.

You spend time to respond but cannot link to what I cannot find.