The Omicron tracker

[peasant]

Now, at the beginning of the next new variant and corresponding wave, I thought it might be interesting to keep a tracker of what's forecast and what's really happening.

Hopefully we'll look back on this some day next summer and wonder what all the fuss was about.

So here it is ...18.12.2021, quotes from Holohan (and the Indo)

“The more optimistic scenarios show 8,000 to 10,000 cases per day, 500 to 750 people requiring general hospital care, and 150 to 250 people requiring critical care, or 650 to 1,000 people in total in hospital at peak.

“The more pessimistic scenarios show in excess of 20,000 cases per day, over 1,500 people requiring general hospital care, and in excess of 400 people requiring critical care, or more than 2,000 people in total in hospital overall at peak,” he said.

It should be noted that the level of infection is such that at peak, between 2pc and 5pc of the population could be infected, and between 6pc and 25pc of the population could be a close contact of an infected person.”

The Omicron variant now accounts for 27pc of all new Covid-19 infections.

If you find interesting data over the next days / weeks, please post it here, but use the other threads for major discussion ...let's see if this works or is of any interest.

[schmittel]

At 7,333 cases today it looks like the Omicron ball is well and truly rolling.

[isha]

At 7,333 cases today it looks like the Omicron ball is well and truly rolling.

This chap is worth a follow. Todays cases contain significant backlog. Yesterday he predicted 6000 including some backlog, but hopefully largely cleared with this 7333.

[peasant]

As of 8am today, 410 Covid-19 patients are hospitalised, of which 107 are in ICU.

18.12.21 starting point as reported on breaking news

[Scotty]

I posted this in the other thread but I'll post it here too as it's specific to Omicron.

It's not an actual study but early indicators are that in South Africa the Omicron wave is about 4-5 times more viral than Delta was but they're seeing a 90% reduction in hospital cases when they compare the Delta wave to this one. Even if it's correct it doesn't mean we'll experience the same in EU but it's a good sign. Time will tell...

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... f=dJOSAJZH

[PureIsle]

based on symptoms reported by Dr. J. Campbell this 'Omicron' affects people like a seasonal cold


runny nose, headache, fatigue, sneezing, and sore throat

being the most reported symptoms.

[peasant]

19.12....from the journal

PUBLIC HEALTH OFFICIALS have confirmed 5,124 new cases of Covid-19 in Ireland.

As of 8am today, 436 people were in hospital with the virus, and 107 are in intensive care.

The Omicron variant is now estimated to make up 52% of Ireland’s confirmed cases

emphasis by me

[peasant]

A not so rosy report from the Imperial College London

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/232698/ ... n-england/

some excerpts

Severity:

The study finds no evidence of Omicron having lower severity than Delta, judged by either the proportion of people testing positive who report symptoms, or by the proportion of cases seeking hospital care after infection. However, hospitalisation data remains very limited at this time.

Protection through prior infection with Covid:

The reinfection risk estimated in the current study suggests this protection has fallen to 19% (95%CI: 0-27%) against an Omicron infection.

Vaccine effectiveness:

Depending on the estimates used for vaccine effectiveness against symptomatic infection from the Delta variant, this translates into vaccine effectiveness estimates against symptomatic Omicron infection of between 0% and 20% after two doses, and between 55% and 80% after a booster dose. Similar estimates were obtained using genotype data, albeit with greater uncertainty.

Just to temper these scary numbers a bit, here is what one of the professors from the Imperial College said to the Financial Times regarding this study:

But Ghani emphasised the figures were “an illustration of the need to act rather than a prediction”.

[isha]

A not so rosy report from the Imperial College London

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/232698/ ... n-england/

some excerpts

Severity:


Protection through prior infection with Covid:


Vaccine effectiveness:



Just to temper these scary numbers a bit, here is what one of the professors from the Imperial College said to the Financial Times regarding this study:

A fair bit of attention at the moment is being given to the tweets in this twitter conversation that includes Graham Medley who creates models for SAGE. The point he was probably innocently enough trying to make in the first place is that they make models that are actionable, ie that can give rise to concrete decisions for government. The point he seems to be missing is that this does not always help the models approach accuracy. It has a precondition embedded in the model making ie that it favour severity.

[490808]

And a swing back the other way Early data points to lower hospitalisation rate linked to Omicron, says expert

[490808]

Most of the news is saying as from Sunday (19th Dec 2021) that Omicron is now accounting for 52% of new infections in Ireland.

https://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/ire ... 31001.html

On Sunday, the National Public Health Emergency Team (Nphet) confirmed the new variant had been detected in 52 per cent of reported cases, with it taking less than two weeks for Omicron to become dominant over Delta.

From the OP's first post when it was a 27% of all new cases that has doubled in 3 days.

[490808]

Omicron infections rising rapidly among young, says health expert

Incidence in those aged 19-34 up by between 50% and 70% in the course of last seven days

[490808]

The time which people who test positive for Covid-19 must wait before becoming eligible for their booster vaccine has been cut to three months.

[schmittel]

Potential Omicron effect showing up in Ontario where they have 81% of population over 5 full vaccinated?

Screenshot 2021-12-21 at 17.53.03.png (71.5 KiB) Viewed 9370 times

Total case numbers broadly similar between vaxxed and unvaxxed until a sudden spike in vaccinated cases on about December 7th.

Is this showing poor vaccine protection against omicron?

Decent site with graphs for Ontario - https://covid-19.ontario.ca/data

[Scotty]

Potential Omicron effect showing up in Ontario where they have 81% of population over 5 full vaccinated?

Is this showing poor vaccine protection against omicron?

From what I've read the vaccines have waned too much by month 4-5 to give much protection against Omicron. Also, even having had covid already doesn't offer much protection it seems. Still early days though. The good news is that all the signs are that it's less virulent. But, if it's 5x more transmissible but only 4x less virulent are we better off or worse off?

So far, I see the evolvement of Omicron as a positive.

[schmittel]

South Africans with Omicron variant 80pc less likely to be hospitalised, study finds

[isha]

We might be reaching test capacity.
High positivity.
A lot are probably doing LFTs before visiting and if positive following up with PCR.
Over 65s not increasing as fast.

Hopefully Omicron is milder for all.

[Scotty]

We might be reaching test capacity.

At 33k/day? Surely not. Or are they putting all their resources into vaccines?

[isha]

At 33k/day? Surely not. Or are they putting all their resources into vaccines?

Sorry, I said that but I dont actually know our capacity. Someone in thread comments had said test places are booked out in some locations and I jumped to a conclusion! It does seem like a fairly big number though

[Scotty]

Sorry, I said that but I dont actually know our capacity. Someone in thread comments had said test places are booked out in some locations and I jumped to a conclusion! It does seem like a fairly big number though

Actually your right. We're doing more tests now than ever. I would have swore it was way more at one stage. That's not to say we can't increase capacity, but we're definitely doing more now than ever.

[peasant]

22.12....from the journal.ie

PUBLIC HEALTH OFFICIALS have been notified of 6,307 new cases of Covid-19 in Ireland today.

As of 8am today, 429 patients are in hospital with Covid-19, of whom 100 are in intensive care.

[Scotty]

So case numbers continue to rise while illness continues to fall. Omicron is behaving as expected.

[peasant]

So case numbers continue to rise while illness continues to fall. Omicron is behaving as expected.

Pessimists might say that Omicron is still a bit too fresh (remember that 2 week + lag?) to create significant hospitalisations yet and that the falling numbers are due to Delta patients thankfully having recovered ...I wouldn't celebrate quite yet

[schmittel]

Pessimists might say that Omicron is still a bit too fresh (remember that 2 week + lag?) to create significant hospitalisations yet and that the falling numbers are due to Delta patients thankfully having recovered ...I wouldn't celebrate quite yet

Pfft, pessimists!! omicron is first chink of light we've had in a while, please let us be optimistic for a few weeks more!

[Scotty]

Yea I know, too early to tell, we don't have the data, not enough tests, no peer review....

The signs are good though. Even the UK's 7 day hospital average is in decline despite their massive case numbers.