Excess Mortality

[isha]

There's a bit of discussion about this going round in some places. To be honest I have been largely ignoring it as it seemed a bit hyped. But then I read this article today and I thought..well, it does seem worth looking at.


I'm completely uncertain as to what are the causes, except for guessing or presuming that it is most likely multifactorial.

People saying it's all vaccines are being simplistic, in my view.

If there is excess mortality, and the extract quoted below from The Examiner certainly seems to suggest there is, then I really think it needs urgent investigation.

From the figures given, more people are dying now than when we went into the lockdown before Christmas in 2021. And more people are dying now than when we were in the first year of the pandemic with no vaccines etc.

Loss of treatment and late diagnosis?
Depression, untreated mental illness?
Weakness of immunity due to underexposure?
Too much eating, drink, drugs due to fear and isolation?
Covid having long term morbidity consequences?
More and / or older population?
Issues with the shots?

Some of those possible explanations call into question the wisdom of the lockdowns themselves - they suggest displaced mortality, or active contribution of lockdowns to alternative sources of mortality.

There are anomalies in excess data eg I have read Sweden isn't having a problem with it. Bulgaria is. This calls into question the vaccine as a potential contributory reason, if such data is correct.

I have seen all the Died Suddenly suggestions - I honestly think so far it is confirmation bias. I saw a report from a guy Dr Jon Drezner of the US National Center for Catastrophic Sports Injury Research, and he says their research shows no increase in sports people's mortality. I think we need to be careful about jumping to conclusions. At the same time, there are serious calls in Japan for investigation of possible links between vaccines and excess mortality. Just saying - there are two sides to this.

One thing that could clear up some of the "it's the vaccines" suggestions is to do a look-back data analysis in Ireland on all the deaths by vaccine status and see if there's any difference between cohorts. Such an analysis could be maintained going forward also, to keep an eye on things. That would be a quick, easily managed and organised response that could be set up immediately. Other investigations for other signals would likely be more complex and time consuming. Though they should all be done.


Overall I really think it's time to have official government level enquiries and funded research to see if there's a signal.

Funerals delayed as increase in number of deaths puts mortuaries under pressure
Cork City Mortuary 'had so many bodies it couldn’t take any more', said the Cork city coroner. Picture: Larry Cummins

MON, 30 JAN, 2023 - 02:00
ANN MURPHY

A spike in the number of deaths in recent weeks has disrupted funeral arrangements and put mortuaries under unprecedented stress.

An Irish Examiner analysis of death notices on the website rip.ie shows there were 9,718 published in the eight-week period from December 1, 2022, to January 25, 2023 — up 20% from 8,075 in the same period a year earlier.

The figure is also considerably higher than the 8,135 death notices published in the same period to January 25, 2021, when the country was in the grip of the worst period of the Covid pandemic.

Pre-pandemic, 6,802 death notices were published in the eight weeks to January 25, 2019, almost 3,000 fewer than in recent weeks.

Ivan Perry, of UCC School of Epidemiology and Public Health, said flu and other respiratory illnesses may be the reason for the alarming spike in deaths.

“It could also be that people are slightly more vulnerable post-Covid because there is a post-Covid elevated risk of heart disease for example, so that could be contributing to it as well.”

An analysis of rip.ie shows there were 1,092 deaths in Cork alone from December 1, 2022, to January 25, 2023 — an increase of 16.4% from a year earlier.

Death notices were at 1,007 in the December 2020 to January 2021 period, with numbers as low as 786 for the same period up to January 2019.

Mr Comyn said high death rates are being recorded across the country. He said Dr Margot Bolster, the assistant State pathologist, and mortuary staff “started work at 6am, including Saturdays, to clear the backlog”.

Mayo coroner Patrick O’Connor also noted “an extraordinary number of deaths” in the period from December 15 to January 15.

https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/arid-41059661.html

[isha]

Another reason of course could be RIP.IE is becoming more popular. The place to be seen now, since Covid restrictions made funerals very odd
I will look up actual deaths stats later. From the CSO or wherever they are

[Hairy-Joe]

I'm wondering if the time of year has anything to do with it. There's always a spike in deaths during winter from various diseases. Also, given the lockdowns over the past few years, people were isolating a bit more. This results in less exposure to viruses and our natural defense mechanisms being reduced.

Also, not being flippant, there's a spike in road deaths also.

Then again, I'm not at all qualifed in public health to talk.

[isha]

https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/debates/qu ... 05-04/454/

Minister for health says no spike. It was the data hack that made things look weird. Response to Harkin question in Dail.

[isha]

I'm wondering if the time of year has anything to do with it. There's always a spike in deaths during winter from various diseases. Also, given the lockdowns over the past few years, people were isolating a bit more. This results in less exposure to viruses and our natural defense mechanisms being reduced.

Also, not being flippant, there's a spike in road deaths also.

Then again, I'm not at all qualifed in public health to talk.

Me neither, re qualifications.
Spike in road deaths could be more drinking, drug use, suicidality? I have also heard that mental health services have experienced large uptick in applications for help.

I don't know if there's a problem, and if there is, what is the cause. I'm just thinking out loud and going to look around gradually and see if I find anything. A place to collate. It might be there is no excess mortality. In which case, great!

[Setanta]

The government are covering up covid deaths as they can't afford lockdowns anymore IMO

[isha]

The government are covering up covid deaths as they can't afford lockdowns anymore IMO

That is a possibility too. For sure.

[Del.Monte]

There's people dying today that never died before.

[isha]

The government are covering up covid deaths as they can't afford lockdowns anymore IMO

That could also be effectively and fairly immediately monitored. Age of death. Cause of death on certificate. The whole thing needs to be investigated. If it exists.

[isha]

There's people dying today that never died before.

Good man, Del

[BrianD3]

Interesting discussion. I'd say the vast majority of deaths for at least the last 5 years have been on rip.ie so I doubt that any apparent increase in mortality is due to increased use of that website.

Road deaths, even when there is a spike, are a drop in the ocean compared to overall mortality - so it's not that.

[isha]

Meself and the son are scouring Eurostat. He has statistics experience. Stay tuned, we might solve it yet. Although he seems very groggy and more interested in chillaxing.

[isha]

A few preliminary observations from Eurostat - I'm afraid they're all from me, the expert son is too tired to be arsed.
This is a line chart showing Eu and Ireland (green) percentage excess mortality since January 2020. 0 is the baseline and one would expect it cleaving not too far either side of that on an ongoing basis.
Stats only go to November 2022. But with the RIP data referenced in the Examiner one could guess we might see an increased line in December 2022 and January 2023.



The next three heat maps are November 2020, November 2021, and November 2022 showing excess mortality across the EU. Displayed in order.
From my inexpert eye I see those who protected hardest earliest with harsh lockdowns (in some cases at least eg Ireland) displaced the dying to later and those who had very high excess early on, eg Bulgaria, are not having as much as us now.
I think these heat maps give some backing to Setanta's view that excess deaths may be covid and are not being advertised to avoid accusations of whatever... (?)

[isha]

Just an extra observation I recall reading very early on in 2020 that studies of the Flu lockdowns in 1919/20 in the US showed that death was often displaced to later on where there were strict lockdowns.

[isha]

One last chart before I head out into the lovely sunshine..
This is deaths in the months of April 2012 - 2021 in the EU. Remember 2020 was that big peak that scared us all.
I see that peak. But oddly not as much in Eastern Europe. But then where you had the peak in some countries it fell to normal by the following April. But peaked in many countries in 2021 that had not had the initial 2020 peak. Displacement of those initial vulnerable Covid deaths to later ?

[Setanta]

That could also be effectively and fairly immediately monitored. Age of death. Cause of death on certificate. The whole thing needs to be investigated. If it exists.

If they covering it up,it won't be on the death cert......I live in an area,had an horrendous enough death rate from COVID particularly pre vaxxines and it's excess death isn't significantly up (still see most older & sick people wear masks around here in shops etc)


They are covering it up,they can't afford to lockdown,and it's the poor and old will as,usual pay for their folly.....these new varients aren't being picked up on antigens,as they are too far removed from original

[isha]

If they covering it up,it won't be on the death cert......I live in an area,had an horrendous enough death rate from COVID particularly pre vaxxines and it's excess death isn't significantly up (still see most older & sick people wear masks around here in shops etc)


They are covering it up,they can't afford to lockdown,and it's the poor and old will as,usual pay for their folly.....these new varients aren't being picked up on antigens,as they are too far removed from original

Age of death could be checked. Mortality is not expected to be high among younger healthy people from covid. That's one thing that could be checked, even if cause of death is wrong.

[PureIsle]

Overall mortality is the one metric that I have had an interest in throughout the last few years, as I have remarked previously.

Forget about breaking the numbers into different causes, ages, locations etc etc and just look at the totals, and compare them to years prior to Covid.

In that way you will see if we had any increase during 2019, 2020, 2021 and 2022.

Selecting different parts of the year can also give incorrect numbers for various reasons such as the data breach mentioned above.

Unfortunately MSM does not want to know about these numbers, but some regional and alternate press coverage is available such as here

https://www.kilkennypress.ie/

The video is annoying but the numbers are available for anyone who wishes to delve into them, from rip.ie.

[isha]

This was the Taoiseach responding either in the last days of January or 1st February to a question from FFs Aindrias Moynihan about the Examiners report on excess mortality in Ireland.



From what I see there is far too casual an attitude going on here from the country's leader. If these excess deaths are due to poor immunity and lost health treatment then it is a direct indictment of the lockdown policy and needs to be urgently investigated. So that it can be avoided in the future. The lockdowns also closed many businesses for good (including my own) and cost the state and individuals an absolute fortune. Why this casual attitude? A fire should be lit under the leaders all over the world to investigate such excess mortality showing up in so many places. It's urgent.


Germany is experiencing more excess deaths NOW than at any time during the pandemic, even compared to that huge spike everywhere had in April 2020. Maybe it is displaced mortality? Maybe they protected the people vulnerable to covid so well in the beginning that they didn't die then but are dying now (from covid but not declared?)? If so, then lockdown didn't work in that scenario either.

[PureIsle]

Varadkar forgot to mention Climate Crisis ..... oh and vax injury ...... and all those other suggestions from the media with which we have been inundated.

It is long past time they got off their collective arse and investigated the cause/s and reported the findings WITH the raw data so we can all be sure they are not telling more lies.

[isha]

Thought to add this specific extract from a much longer article in today's Irish Times. Just to record what is being said in it re the proposition that vaccines are part of the cause of excess mortality.

My feeling at this moment is it's either the effect of lockdowns or longer term morbidity from Covid itself. I have no evidence for these theories but that's what I would look at first. We need proper data.

This is an archive link of the paywalled article. I hope it works for you.


https://archive.is/2023.02.11-072249/ht ... ity-rates/

The recent rise in deaths has been attributed by some online to Covid vaccines. Hashtags such as #DiedSuddenly trend on Twitter whenever a well-known person dies unexpectedly, despite the lack of any supporting evidence.
Some Covid vaccines have been linked to a small rise in cases of heart inflammation (myocarditis and pericarditis), mostly among young men. In Ireland, 133 cases of heart inflammation following vaccination have been reported to the Health Protection Regulatory Authority, five of them involving adolescents (this doesn’t mean the vaccine cause the side effect). Fewer than five deaths have been reported.
Even allowing for imperfect reporting mechanisms, these numbers are too small to have any impact on the overall number of excess deaths.
[ Benefits of Covid-19 vaccines outweigh the risks, latest figures show ]
In the US, health authorities are investigating a potential link between Pfizer’s updated Covid vaccine and a type of stroke in older adults, but say such a link has not been observed in other countries, and have not recommended any change to vaccination practices for now. It is worth noting that there was no rise in the rate of excess deaths in Ireland after boosters began to be rolled out.
Data from the UK shows unvaccinated people were more likely to figure in excess deaths than vaccinated people. And if vaccines did have a role in pushing up excess deaths, you might expect the countries with the highest vaccination rates (such as Ireland) to have the highest excess deaths, but this is not the case.
To test claims of excess death, particularly among younger people, The Irish Times asked the CSO for figures for deaths of people aged under 45 years in recent years. This limited data does not appear to support claims of a vaccine-related rise in deaths in this age cohort. Since 2019, the number of deaths among under-45s has remained relatively stable, aside from the expected peaks during winter (see graph above).
While the vast majority of medical specialists we asked in recent months about claims of vaccine-induced harm say they have no cause of concern, it is fair to say a small number of doctors do, though for now they are reluctant to speak publicly. The issue is likely to receive an airing at a number of forthcoming inquests into the deaths of people shortly after being vaccinated against Covid.

[isha]

Luke Johnson, a risk capital investor, speaking on the BBC in May 2020. He was absolutely slated. He was actually despised, for saying this and other things about the handling of the pandemic. In fact I would have slated him myself if I had heard this in May 2020, as I was fully onboard with lockdown at that point!

I think listening back to him, he was absolutely correct. The worrisome excess mortality we have now may be caused by the exact issues he pointed towards in this clip.

Why were most of us not able to listen to his points clearly at the time? ( Or people making similar points). It's fascinating from a psychological point of view to look back and examine what influenced ones opinions. And how much disgust arose in many of us for opinions outside of those permitted. I am speaking from my point of view. What broke my conditioning came somewhat later in the months leading up to the vaccine rollout, say around Sept/Oct 2020 - I couldn't accept the trial timeframe. It freaked me out of agreeing with lockdown type management of the pandemic.

[PureIsle]

I wonder what ye think of this, and whether it might colour one's view of possible causes of excess deaths.

https://brownstone.org/articles/cdc-lie ... ay-in-arm/

The CDC Lied: The mRNA Wasn’t Meant to “Stay in the Arm”

[isha]

The Chief Medical Officer has responded (at least partially) to a question about excess mortality in Ireland.

We will have to wait and see if the excess tapers off, as suggested, which hopefully it will.


SOME SIDE NOTES BY ME...
The Examiner article cited 9718 deaths published from 1st December 2022 to 25 January 2023 ( note these are just the RIP.ie notices, deaths may be higher as RIP does not officially record all deaths).
It was 8135 in the same time frame for 2020-2021.

I checked what were the numbers for the harsh mortality period cited by the CMO in 2017 - 2018.
December 2017 total deaths - 2959
January 2018 total deaths to 25th of month - 3488 - 650 approx (for deaths on 26-31st) - 2838
Total deaths 1 st December 2017 to 25th January 2018 - 5797

(Google CSO General Summary and 2017 or 2018 and then scroll down for the tables of deaths in each month.)

The population in 2017 - 4,792,490
The population in 2023 - 5,081, 632
That's an increase of 290,000 just about.
As per Google. May be a little different but not much.

Our crude death rate now is 6.5 per 1000 per annum. That would mean 1885 extra deaths in 2023 for the extra population of 290,000.
(6.5 X 290 )

In the 56 days of the time period that would be approximately 292 more deaths expected given increase in population size.
(1885/365 then X 56)

Thus 5797 + 292 - 6089. To match the harsh year the CMO references and bring it up to present population.

Round it up to 7000 as the winter months are the worst. Even round it up to 8000 and it's still not touching the 9718 reported to RIP.ie this past 2 months.

*!!!!MY SUMS COULD BE WRONG. IM TIRED!!!!*
Please correct me where mistakes are made.

https://www.rte.ie/news/health/2023/021 ... s-ireland/

During a three-week period in December and January last, there was excess all-cause mortality among those aged 75-84 years of age.

The Chief Medical Officer noted that influenza activity was at very high levels in Ireland during December and early to mid January this year, with a high number of influenza hospitalisations reported.

The details have been provided in response to a written query to the Department of Health, by Stephen McMahon of the Irish Patients Association.

In the correspondence, the CMO's office said that other important factors may affect excess mortality, including the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic, the circulation of other respiratory viruses, the effects of cold weather, and an ageing population.

Health officials say the data is provisional due to the time lag with death registration in Ireland.

Excess mortality refers to the number of deaths from all causes, during a period of time, above and beyond what would normally be expected.

The CMO's office said it is important to note that excess mortality has been seen before, when influenza viruses circulated at high levels in Ireland.


It cited winter 2017/2018 which was characterised as a severe flu season.

It added that the HSE's Health Protection Surveillance Centre anticipates that when further deaths are registered over the coming weeks, further excess mortality for the 2022/2023 winter period will be observed.

It expects that this excess mortality will be seen for at least a four to five week period in December 2022 and January this year.

The office added that excess mortality has also been observed in other European countries, over the course of this winter.

[PureIsle]

@isha

My only comment regarding your figures would be that the vast majority of the increased population would be young and unlikely to die in normal circumstances, so I would not expect the average death rate of the whole population to apply to that increase.
Unfortunately that only makes the numbers worse.

Also I think the RIP.IE figures are more accurate time-wise as the requirement to officially register a death provides for a delay of some three months I believe.