Still I can't base appraisal on use of RIP numbers.
The CSO isn't great for publishing prompt statistics but the UK is and guess what, that means Northern Ireland is also. I downloaded loads of excels. And put this together.
For anyone daft enough to look here are a few contextual remarks.
It's the same 19 week period, give or take a day or two.
First column is average as per official stats of 2015 -2019. The next 4 columns are 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023.
The peak of covid is marked in red box
The vaccine rolled out end of December 2020. And by end of March 2021 700,000 of NIs 1.9 million pop had one dose.
There's been about 4,500 - 6000 natural increase in population in NI per annum. Normal rate of death is 7-9 per 1000 in our population. That would mean you would expect maximum of 45 (5x9) over the five years period from 2019(cumulatively calculated year on year).
You can look at it yourselves and see if you can see anything.
My opinion is it's not enormous numbers. Not the kind that would frighten you. But there's ongoing excess death since 2020 after you take account for the terrible peak. Whether it is due to covid after effects, covid response by government, loss of diagnosis, mental health, vaccines, I do not know. And neither does anyone else.
Numbers have not fallen back towards 2015-2019 average (plus expected increase). In some weeks more are dying in 2023 than died in the same weeks in 2020 with Covid in its pandemic phase and pre vaccines.
It should be investigated. That's all.
