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Vaccine megathread

All things COVID
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Scotty
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Re: Vaccine megathread

#1051

Post by Scotty »

schmittel wrote: Sun Nov 21, 2021 6:48 pm "if vaccines didn't exist"
"if 100% vaccinated"
Ahh ok, so my figures are actually correct and accurate. Could it be you just don't like the result?
schmittel
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Re: Vaccine megathread

#1052

Post by schmittel »

Scotty wrote: Sun Nov 21, 2021 6:52 pm Ahh ok, so my figures are actually correct and accurate. Could it be you just don't like the result?
It's nothing to do with not liking the result, I have always agreed that vaccination will reduce the risk of ICU admission, there is no argument from me on that point. Within that post I both acknowledged that explicitly, as well as expressing surprise at just how stark the difference was.

Your result is based on the assertion that we'd have:
(27/7)x100 = 385 in ICU if vaccines didn't exist.
(3/93)x100 = 3.2 in ICU if 100% vaccinated.
Which is total and utter nonsense. There is absolutely no way to credibly claim what would have happened if we did not have vaccines.

If you insist that this is actually a credible claim, then you would also have to accept that somebody quoting the higher number of vaccinated cases per 100k of vaccinated population could credibly claim that if nobody was vaccinated we would have less cases.

Would you accept that?
schmittel
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Re: Vaccine megathread

#1053

Post by schmittel »

Worrying editorial in today's Business Post enthusiastically endorsing forced vaccinations. It's paywalled, but to give you a flavour:
Evidence suggests that the Covid vaccines are highly effective, and that their effectiveness wanes over time. The consequences of this waning effect might be lessened if more people were vaccinated. Yet a strain of anti-vaccination sentiment persists among a cohort of Europeans. This did not matter when we were all unvaccinated. Now that many of us have gone to the trouble of getting jabbed, the self-indulgence of the anti-vaccination faction has become a form of antisocial behaviour that threatens the health of others.
For a start, for those of us who understand that a vaccine provides immunity, which was most of us pre Covid, since that was the old science we trusted, there is no evidence that the Covid vaccines are highly effective.

Leaving that aside, and accepting the new normal science that the vaccines are effective, how on earth can the waning effectiveness be improved by vaccinating more people? Is this also new normal science?

I guess it doesn't really matter whether this is true or not as far as the writer is concerned. With mandatory vaccination we don't get to ask such questions.

Removing the requirement for informed consent means removing the requirement to explain these wonder benefits of vaccination, as well as any unforeseen downsides.
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Scotty
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Re: Vaccine megathread

#1054

Post by Scotty »

schmittel wrote: Sun Nov 21, 2021 7:16 pm
Which is total and utter nonsense. There is absolutely no way to credibly claim what would have happened if we did not have vaccines.

Would you accept that?
What do you mean 'if I insist it's credible'? It's based on your post.

27:3 current ratio of ICU << your stats. Which is...
1.9% : 98.1% ratio of otherwise healthy vaxxed in ICU, Which is...
385:3.2 Ratio of whole population. Which is...
120 x higher risk for healthy unvaccinated.

These are not 'what ifs'. These are the current stats just given in different ways, they all show the same thing. I'm not 'claiming' anything. They're fact.
Last edited by Scotty on Sun Nov 21, 2021 8:29 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Scotty
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Re: Vaccine megathread

#1055

Post by Scotty »

schmittel wrote: Sun Nov 21, 2021 8:19 pm there is no evidence that the Covid vaccines are highly effective.
But you yourself posted evidence that they are highly effective!!
schmittel
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Re: Vaccine megathread

#1056

Post by schmittel »

Scotty wrote: Sun Nov 21, 2021 8:28 pm But you yourself posted evidence that they are highly effective!!
I posted evidence that they are are highly effective at reducing the risk of requiring ICU treatment, but that is not what a vaccine is designed to do.

A vaccine should provide immunity, i.e to prevent you from getting the disease in the first place.

There is no clear evidence that these so called vaccines are highly effective at providing immunity.

The biggest misinformation scandal in this whole business is describing these shots as vaccines. They're more akin to some sort of anti-viral injection.
schmittel
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Re: Vaccine megathread

#1057

Post by schmittel »

Scotty wrote: Sun Nov 21, 2021 8:27 pm What do you mean 'if I insist it's credible'? It's based on your post.

27:3 current ratio of ICU << your stats. Which is...
1.9% : 98.1% ratio of otherwise healthy vaxxed in ICU, Which is...
385:3.2 Ratio of whole population. Which is...
120 x higher risk for healthy unvaccinated.

These are not 'what ifs'. These are the current stats just given in different ways, they all show the same thing. I'm not 'claiming' anything. They're fact.
Not what ifs?
(27/7)x100 = 385 in ICU if vaccines didn't exist.
(3/93)x100 = 3.2 in ICU if 100% vaccinated.
These are big what ifs. That's my point. For the last time. I have agreed that the risks of the healthy unvaccinated ending up in ICU are astonishingly higher than the healthy vaccinated.

Please don't come back to me again with "but these are your figures etc etc".

I never said anything about extrapolating what numbers may or may not be in ICU if we had no vaccines or if we had 100% vaccinated. Throughly idiotic stuff to do so.
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Scotty
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Re: Vaccine megathread

#1058

Post by Scotty »

schmittel wrote: Sun Nov 21, 2021 9:04 pm I never said anything about extrapolating what numbers may or may not be in ICU if we had no vaccines or if we had 100% vaccinated. Throughly idiotic stuff to do so.
That's how science works Schmittel. You take a sample of data and analyse and extrapolate it. It's what you did and it's what I did. Nothing idiotic about it.
kadman
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Re: Vaccine megathread

#1059

Post by kadman »

If we were going to be in a better place with everyone vaccinated, then we would be there now, as the most vaccinated in europe.
Clearly we are not, and wont be .
schmittel
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Re: Vaccine megathread

#1060

Post by schmittel »

Scotty wrote: Sun Nov 21, 2021 10:00 pm That's how science works Schmittel. You take a sample of data and analyse and extrapolate it. It's what you did and it's what I did. Nothing idiotic about it.
How science works?! That must be more of this new normal science I mentioned in the other post. Anything goes sort of so-called science to bolster the case for the so-called vaccine!
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isha
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Re: Vaccine megathread

#1061

Post by isha »

If a non sterilising genetic therapy still in trial until 2023 can be mandated against people's will then anything can be mandated. Anyone inclined to back compulsory injections should remember that.
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isha
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Re: Vaccine megathread

#1062

Post by isha »

https://www.publichealth.columbia.edu/p ... -19-spread

Further info re Humidity and Covid. Indoor central heating decreases humidity a lot. One can buy ceramic/steel water containers to hang on radiators, quite cheap, effective.
kadman
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Re: Vaccine megathread

#1063

Post by kadman »

isha wrote: Mon Nov 22, 2021 7:34 am https://www.publichealth.columbia.edu/p ... -19-spread

Further info re Humidity and Covid. Indoor central heating decreases humidity a lot. One can buy ceramic/steel water containers to hang on radiators, quite cheap, effective.
So are we looking to increase the humidity in our homes or decrease it.
Makes sense that the environment must have some effect on the virus and its spread.
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isha
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Re: Vaccine megathread

#1064

Post by isha »

kadman wrote: Mon Nov 22, 2021 10:10 am So are we looking to increase the humidity in our homes or decrease it.
Makes sense that the environment must have some effect on the virus and its spread.
Increase. It is to do with dryness of epithelium. If the epithelium in bodies mucus membranes is too dry (eg lungs nose etc) then it cannot resist viruses as much.
A snowy winter place can be have low humidity, eg Scandinavia, North America. Also a very hot place that makes one sweat too much can dry out epithelium. Drinking enough and enough humidity in indoor atmosphere. I put a small metal dish of water on one side of my solid fuel stove for example.

Editing to add back into that Twitter thread where he explains some of this - you have to read down through thread to see the info

2u2me
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Re: Vaccine megathread

#1065

Post by 2u2me »

kadman wrote: Mon Nov 22, 2021 10:10 am So are we looking to increase the humidity in our homes or decrease it.
Makes sense that the environment must have some effect on the virus and its spread.
I was shocked to learn from that article that humidity is the most important of the three factors they studied, along with temperature and amount of UV light. I would have guessed humidity was the least important. Good to know.
kadman
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Re: Vaccine megathread

#1066

Post by kadman »

I heard this morning on local radio people ringing up and complaining of side effects since they received the vaccine, which I was surprised about, the calls, not the effects.
One person got a headache within minutes of the first vaccine, and have it since and are continuing visits to the doctor over this. The next caller was a women who has an ever increasing rash at the injection site, and is afraid to go for the booster.
Local midlands radio.
schmittel
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Re: Vaccine megathread

#1067

Post by schmittel »

The humidity thing is an interesting theory, and certainly it looks from that graph that something happened around that time to cause a spike.

If you add Ireland to the same graph you'll see we had a similar spike at a similar time.
Screenshot 2021-11-22 at 11.30.11.png
Screenshot 2021-11-22 at 11.30.11.png (139.71 KiB) Viewed 75 times
I presume rainfall would affect humidity? We had a very wet week then, with status yellow rainfall warnings in parts of the country.
CelticRambler
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Re: Vaccine megathread

#1068

Post by CelticRambler »

kadman wrote: Sun Nov 21, 2021 10:47 amI noticed the recovery room I was in, had at least 10-12 empty beds. Which i thought was strange if we are to believe that the
bed capacity is coming under severe pressure according to the news. I only saw one ambulance calling into the ambulance area
that i could see from my window. It was actually very quiet.
You're observing a problem with the media (and politicians) interpreting a "medical" use of a word to mean the same thing as is commonly understood by the public. In this case, the word "bed" is not the physical thing that people lie on, it is a concept that includes (typically) a team of as many as fifteen people, thousands of euros' worth of equipment, hundreds of euros' worth of consumable products and tens of square metres of space, which may (or may not) include what we think of as a bed.

If you cast your mind back to the height of the British version, the government there announced with great fanfare their amazing success in building in just a couple of weeks, the "4000-bed" Nightingale hospital. Yes, it had 4000 flat surfaces on which to dump patients, but functionally with was only a 20-bed facility because the idiots in charge of setting it up didn't make provision for staffing it.

When you say that the ward was "very quiet" that is the sign of how much pressure the system is under: it shows that there are no longer the staff or material resources available to admit and treat patients. The physical bed becomes irrelevant in those circumstances.
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isha
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Re: Vaccine megathread

#1069

Post by isha »

schmittel wrote: Mon Nov 22, 2021 11:39 am The humidity thing is an interesting theory, and certainly it looks from that graph that something happened around that time to cause a spike.

If you add Ireland to the same graph you'll see we had a similar spike at a similar time.

Screenshot 2021-11-22 at 11.30.11.png

I presume rainfall would affect humidity? We had a very wet week then, with status yellow rainfall warnings in parts of the country.
I am not actually sure about how atmospheric humidity exactly works. I think we here have a humid enough climate outdoors all year round but say in Sweden or where my friend lives in north US they have really cold snowy winters but very low humidity even outside. So in Scandinavia they can have those gorgeous wooden houses Here I think our humidity issue is inside, once the central heating cranks up. The air inside dries up and dries our membranes.
It's a complicated thing as there can be issues with water loss from bodies inside surfaces in very humid hot countries too.
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isha
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Re: Vaccine megathread

#1070

Post by isha »

The governments of the Northern Territories in Australia have asked the defense forces to help them remove Aboriginal people with Covid and their close contacts from their homes to Howard Springs quarantine camp

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-n ... -to-worsen

The camp

Image
schmittel
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Re: Vaccine megathread

#1071

Post by schmittel »

Most countries in Europe (not Sweden though) saw an uptick at that time, though some sharper than others.
Screenshot 2021-11-22 at 12.16.41.png
Screenshot 2021-11-22 at 12.16.41.png (148.23 KiB) Viewed 73 times
To me that suggests something more mundane like the cumulative effect of schools returning in September, allowing for incubation periods.

If you look at case numbers both here and in UK, they are disproportionately children and 30s/40s, thus kids at school infecting their parents would be a potential explanation.

I accept it is a weak explanation, because as we all know, schools are safe and kids don't catch/transmit covid in the classroom!
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PureIsle
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Re: Vaccine megathread

#1072

Post by PureIsle »

I am unsure if this has previously been posted but if yes I do not recall any discussion about what was said.
I have no knowledge of the doctor in the clip, but his statements do cause some questions ...... especially about mortality from 1:30 to 2:10 of the clip
Thoughts?

schmittel
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Re: Vaccine megathread

#1073

Post by schmittel »

PureIsle wrote: Mon Nov 22, 2021 2:01 pm I am unsure if this has previously been posted but if yes I do not recall any discussion about what was said.
I have no knowledge of the doctor in the clip, but his statements do cause some questions ...... especially about mortality from 1:30 to 2:10 of the clip
Thoughts?

Very interesting, thanks for posting.

The only thing he said that I was surprised about was the fact that according to the CDC - if you die for any reason (eg hit by a cement truck) within 28 days of positive Covid test your death is classified as caused by Covid, but if you suffer any unusual symptoms/reactions within 28 days of a covid vaccine injection it is not classified as an adverse reaction to the vaccine. Utterly bonkers if true!
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isha
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Re: Vaccine megathread

#1074

Post by isha »

I have watched Dr Youngblood's speech before.
The main thing it summarises for me is that the dangers of the vaccine are being minimised.
I am very wary of this ugly virus. I think it was a lab leak from gain of function research and will have a serious long term health burden on our species. It will lower our life expectancy.
I just also and at the same time think the medical products rushed through are too dangerous - people say the risk is tiny, but it is not. It may be small, but it is not negligible nor is it something one can handwave.

There has to be a solution but it is not mandating these products.

A recent non-peer-reviewed paper in the Journal of American Heart Association is a study on 566 patients who had been in long term monitoring for cardiac conditions. All patients showed increased cardiac inflammation. People don't like the retired cardiologist Dr Stephen Gundry, another maverick it is said, but the very least they could do is urgently look at his blood test results, and publish a proper review.

https://www.ahajournals.org/doi/10.1161 ... pl_1.10712
A total of 566 pts, aged 28 to 97, M:F ratio 1:1 seen in a preventive cardiology practice had a new PULS test drawn from 2 to 10 weeks following the 2nd COVID shot and was compared to the previous PULS score drawn 3 to 5 months previously pre- shot. Baseline IL-16 increased from 35=/-20 above the norm to 82 =/- 75 above the norm post-vac; sFas increased from 22+/- 15 above the norm to 46=/-24 above the norm post-vac; HGF increased from 42+/-12 above the norm to 86+/-31 above the norm post-vac. These changes resulted in an increase of the PULS score from 11% 5 yr ACS risk to 25% 5 yr ACS risk. At the time of this report, these changes persist for at least 2.5 months post second dose of vac. We conclude that the mRNA vacs dramatically increase inflammation on the endothelium and T cell infiltration of cardiac muscle and may account for the observations of increased thrombosis, cardiomyopathy, and other vascular events following vaccination.
Norman Fenton is another dismissed professional - but he is a British mathematician who is currently Professor of Risk Information Management at Queen Mary University of London. He consistently says there is no real evidence benefit of vaccination outweighs the risk. He also says Infection Fatality Risk is much lower than constantly advertised. From 12.49 - 14.50 minutes he illustrates the Simpson's Paradox I mentioned yesterday. Once broken down by ages the vaccinated have lower mortality than the aggregate suggests. Which will clarify that information yesterday that was doing the rounds.
However Fenton goes on to show how complete data is not being given, and how shifting reporting of numbers even by one week can cause massive differences in interpretation of results. Things to think about anyway.


I don't know the truth. All people should make their own free choice.
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isha
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Re: Vaccine megathread

#1075

Post by isha »

Also there is a lot pf mumbling going on at the moment about lockdown but I think it would be a very bad move. For a start the ICU is NOT as pressurised as it was last January. The HSE has also not provided proper expansion of capacity and now the public will be once more punished for that mismanagement. And lastly I think cases have possibly peaked in this wave so shutting down now will falsely make it look like shutdown works while destroying society.
People who are vulnerable should mostly stay home or limit social engagements. Not because I want to be mean to them, but protecting the vulnerable is the logical way through this. I am not vulnerable but I bloody well am staying home mostly. That is what people do naturally when disease increases - there is absolutely no need to destroy the lives and mental well-being of resilient younger people who are trying to work, socialise, mate, have the craic and be normal.

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