Vaccine megathread

[GrowlerG]

They are not random charts. They are wholly based on UK Covid mortality data from official govt sources between Mar 2020 and 1st Aug 2021.
They are interesting, if you take a look at them.

The contexts are several including importantly the potentially superior utility of targeted versus mass vaccination.

Edit ed to add - if you enlarge the charts you can see the data sources at top

Mine are not random either they are a charts of the virus and how it is affecting people.

[GrowlerG]

and more in that article...

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/m ... -1.4644563

Now, with studies showing the efficacy of the vaccine fading among the over-60s, some of whom received their first shots as early as December, health authorities have taken the lead in administering booster injections.

and

Health ministry data show that the possibility of serious illness is as much as six times higher in the unvaccinated than those who have had their two shots.

“If people get vaccinated, as quickly as possible, then there won’t be any need for any lockdown,” said the official, who asked not to be identified. “We look at the charts daily, and right now there are enough vaccines, more than enough vaccines for every one who wants one, or two, or three.”

But the rapid pace of new infections makes it likely that new restrictions will have to be imposed, he said.

the world watches with great interest.

[isha]

Mine are not random either they are a charts of the virus and how it is affecting people.

They are not.

[GrowlerG]

They are not.

Panto season is back. Oh yes they are.

[kadman]

I s Forbes a reliable source?

[quotehttps://www.forbes.com/sites/roberthart/2021/05 ... -to-blame/[/quote]

Uruguay has endured the highest Covid-19 death rate in the world per capita for several weeks, despite having one of the world’s most successful inoculation drives, a common situation in a number of other highly vaccinated countries like Bahrain and the Maldives.

Uruguay, a small country of around 3.5 million people, recorded an average of 55 deaths a day over the last week, approximately 1.6 deaths per 100,000 inhabitants according to data compiled by the New York Times, a figure that has remained roughly the same since cases surged in April.

Controlling for population, Bahrain (0.9 deaths per 100,000 people) and the Maldives (1) have similarly grim metrics and have reported far greater death rates than countries like the U.S. (0.15) and India (0.29) for a large part of May.

Other countries like Chile and the Seychelles rank among the worst Covid infection surges in the world, though each have higher vaccination levels than the U.S., with experts warning that lifting restrictions too early may have made the public unduly complacent.

Dr. Jude Gedeon, public health commissioner of the Seychelles, told a local paper the outbreak was partially fueled by the resumption of economic activity and “complacency” over public health measures like mask wearing and social distancing, a sentiment echoed to Reuters by Maldives President Ibrahim Mohamed Solih, who said the country had lifted restrictions too soon.

Uruguay’s approach to the pandemic, which involved as few restrictions as possible, has also engendered a sense of complacency, AFP report, and the country is in a similar situation to Argentina where, despite strict restrictions in the country, many are flouting guidelines.

[GrowlerG]

I s Forbes a reliable source?

Here's some info on it.

https://www.adfontesmedia.com/forbes-bi ... liability/

[Supercell]

Uruguay went with Sinovac and now is giving boosters with Pfizer - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... recipients

[isha]

Panto season is back. Oh yes they are.

For someone who persistently complains about people not engaging in good faith and spamming with gibberish it seems you may be suffering from a case of projection. Your link is to a ridiculous set of stupid looking non-data based supposedly sardonic cartoons made by some random guy from this Instagram account - https://www.instagram.com/mattsurelee/. I actually thought I had opened a spam site link when I clicked on it. My link is to a set of graphs based on verifiable data sourced directly from the UK government data re Covid case numbers.

[isha]

I s Forbes a reliable source?

[quotehttps://www.forbes.com/sites/roberthart/2021/05 ... -to-blame/

[/quote]

Hi Kadman, I generally discount countries data where they have used majority Sinovac or the other similar vaccines.

I am interested in Novovax also, which is a protein based vaccine, using older tech - it will come available before end of year I hope.

[kadman]

Never heard of Novovax until recently

[kadman]

But you are not going to get Novovax until approval. And i thought I read about some agreement between a vaccine provider
and the government to maintain a monopoly if the government want its vaccine.How is that moral?

[isha]

Never heard of Novovax until recently

https://www.nebraskamed.com/COVID/moths ... cine-works

It almost sounds romantic with its moths and bark although it is a high tech thing itself. I like that it does not contain the PEG.
My Jannsen appointment was cancelled and stealthily replaced with a Pfizer offer which I have refused. Looks like it is back to the bat cave to hide away again

[kadman]

https://www.nebraskamed.com/COVID/moths ... cine-works

It almost sounds romantic with its moths and bark although it is a high tech thing itself. I like that it does not contain the PEG.
My Jannsen appointment was cancelled and stealthily replaced with a Pfizer offer which I have refused. Looks like it is back to the bat cave to hide away again

PEG thats a blast from the past. I was using peg 30 years ago as a chemical to remove excess moisture from timber blanks for woodturning. Timber was immersed in a vat of PEG and left for a few days. The chemical drove out all the water in the cells of the wood, and remained there. After 3 days you could use the wood for turning. It always had a waxy coat on it after turning. And the PEG was marked as a toxic chemical if memory serves me well. And now they want to stick it in my arm

[GrowlerG]

For someone who persistently complains about people not engaging in good faith and spamming with gibberish it seems you may be suffering from a case of projection. Your link is to a ridiculous set of stupid looking non-data based supposedly sardonic cartoons made by some random guy from this Instagram account - https://www.instagram.com/mattsurelee/. I actually thought I had opened a spam site link when I clicked on it. My link is to a set of graphs based on verifiable data sourced directly from the UK government data re Covid case numbers.

You posted a link to twitter I posted a link that ultimately comes from Instagram. same difference.
The charts are about how virus effects people mental perceptions. Not sure why that attracts your ire.

[GrowlerG]

Uruguay went with Sinovac and now is giving boosters with Pfizer - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... recipients

There was some problem with the Russian delivery...

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/a ... -1.4628771

[Wibbs]

My Jannsen appointment was cancelled and stealthily replaced with a Pfizer offer which I have refused. Looks like it is back to the bat cave to hide away again

That's what happened with an appointment I had with one pharmacy, though nothing stealthy about it, they just had no J&J left. They were apologetic about it. Then I got lucky when a half hour later another appointment came through with the J&J. When I was waiting to see if I'd faint or whatever after the jab, they told me I was in one of the very last batches that they knew of in Dublin. They had only one batch of five doses left. Both pharmacies told me that J&J supplies were essentially gone and it would be Pfizer/Moderna from now on, well, until new vaccines came on stream. That said another pharmacy told me last week it was all gone and I did end up getting the J&J, but supplies seem to be pretty much gone at this stage.

[GrowlerG]

PEG thats a blast from the past. I was using peg 30 years ago as a chemical to remove excess moisture from timber blanks for woodturning. Timber was immersed in a vat of PEG and left for a few days. The chemical drove out all the water in the cells of the wood, and remained there. After 3 days you could use the wood for turning. It always had a waxy coat on it after turning. And the PEG was marked as a toxic chemical if memory serves me well. And now they want to stick it in my arm

Is that this...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polyethylene_glycol

[kadman]

Is that this...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polyethylene_glycol

Must be the same, I see references to it in your link. I cant say for sure, but I might still have some out in the work shop. If memory serves me well it was granular material in packets, much like silica gel. I'll check it out .

[GrowlerG]

Seems like it's in a ton of stuff.

[kadman]

At the time I was using it, it was very expensive, I remember that. Also remember that the finish on wood that had it, was never as good as ordinary air dried wood. So I have probably ingested way more than would be in a gallon of any vaccine that uses it.

[knownunknown]

If you are less likely to get it. You are less likely to spread it. Indirectly that causes herd immunity. No?

Only at a certain threshold. This herd immunity only kicks in at a point. It's to do with the spread rate and amount of people vaccinated(in this case the vaccinated still spread it at alarming rates). Even if we could get 100% of people vaccinated with regular booster shots we would be no where near herd immunity with these current vaccines.

What are people talking about when they're talking about herd immunity?

• Protection of those without immunity
• Eradication of disease

Both of these are very noble goals but not achievable with the vaccines as leaky as they are.

[GrowlerG]

Its certainly a changing landscape. Earlier in the year...

Most estimates had placed the threshold at 60–70% of the population gaining immunity, either through vaccinations or past exposure to the virus.

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-00728-2

But we knew that new variants were inevitable.

For the original SARS-CoV-2, herd immunity could be reached when around 67 percent of the population was immune—either through natural infection or vaccination. “For Delta, those thresholds we estimate being well over 80 percent, maybe approaching 90 percent,” Ricardo Franco, an assistant professor of medicine at the University of Alabama at Birmingham said at a press briefing organized by the Infectious Diseases Society of America.

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/scie ... ds-answers

But we now know with Israel having started vaccinations in Dec the effectiveness is waning. They are currently saying (open to correction) vaccine is 64% ? effective at prevent transmission. But with rising numbers thats not proving to be enough. So they are going to try a booster.

The Ministry of Health regularly monitors the effectiveness of the vaccine for coronavirus.
From the epidemiological analysis by public health services in the Ministry of Health, it is evident that since June 6th there was marked decline in the effectiveness of the vaccine in preventing infection (64%) and symptomatic illness (64%). This decline has been observed simultaneously with the spread of the Delta variant in Israel. Nevertheless, the vaccine maintains an effectiveness rate of about 93% in preventing serious illness and hospitalization cases.

https://www.gov.il/en/departments/news/05072021-03
https://www.gov.il/en/departments/news/06072021-04

Still early days. It maybe that the protection from transmissions is much lower, and we don't know what effect a booster will have.

[kadman]

[quotehttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-07 ... nxious-u-s][/quote]

By Robert Langreth
July 15, 2021, 10:35 AM MDT

Immune system response, real-world data, new variants crucial
Physicians push back on Pfizer plan for booster as premature

Pfizer Inc. has been touting a plan to apply for clearance this summer for a third shot of its messenger RNA vaccine. But vaccine experts and health officials in both the U.S. and Europe say that while a booster may eventually be needed, existing shots remain highly effective in preventing severe disease, including against all known variants.

Within weeks, or certainly months, health officials will have new data from the very first people to get the Pfizer and Moderna Inc. shots in trials. That will offer a hint about possible immune system changes over the long term, answering crucial questions about the durability of vaccines as the super-infectious delta variant continues to boost infection rates worldwide.

“Right now there doesn’t seem a reason to need a booster,” said Sean O’Leary, a pediatric infectious disease specialist at the University of Colorado. “There are legitimate concerns about the motivations about Pfizer’s statement, given it’s in their financial interest to promote this concept. That doesn’t mean to say they’re wrong, but we need to follow the science.”

[GrowlerG]

There is a view point that if the current vaccines are mostly preventing serious illness and hospitalizations, thats enough for now. Lets not chase herd immunity with boosters until they "science the out of this" (the Martian).

Which is fine. The only downside is if people become complacent (which seems to be happening in low vaccine states in the US) the numbers tend to explode, and you might be back to risking overloading the system again.

I'm open to be persuaded either way.

[kadman]

I think its fair to say that vaccinated people are becoming equally complacent .


Me too.