I was looking a bit at Uttar Pradesh because some of the baddies were mentioning how well they are doing and how they use Ivermectin. Thought I would have a gawk myself. UP could blow up and have a massive wave, this is just a snap shot in time - but the figures in this snapshot are EXTRAORDINARY.
This article is from last week.
https://www.hindustantimes.com/cities/l ... 66925.html
There are no active cases of the coronavirus disease (Covid-19) in 33 districts of Uttar Pradesh, the state government informed on Friday. About 67 districts have not reported a single new case of the viral infection in the last 24 hours, the government said, noting the steady improvement of the Covid-19 situation in the state.
Overall, the state has a total of 199 active cases, while the positivity rate came down to less than 0.01 per cent. The recovery rate, meanwhile, has improved to 98.7 per cent. As per the state's health bulletin, Uttar Pradesh reported only 11 new Covid-19 cases and zero deaths in the last 24 hours. The fresh cases came out of 2.26 lakh samples that were tested in the last 24 hours. As of Friday, the state government has conducted 7.42 crore tests, according to the data published by Uttar Pradesh's health department.
Uttar Pradesh has a population of 241 million people (US population is 328 million. Europe population is 450 million)
It is very densely populated. 829 people per square km. (US 35 per square km. Europe 34 per square km).
It has about 9% of population fully vaccinated as of recently, about 45% first dose. They are doing a big vaccine roll out, and are the most successful state in India at vaccinating really quickly. (US has 55% fully vaccinated. EU has 70% plus fully vaccinated.)
Their test rate in UP is very good, higher than WHO recommendations - they seem to have a good test and trace system in operation.
At the moment daily positive Covid cases in UP hover around low teens to mid twenties
This is incredible. Daily case numbers in US are around 150,000 since mid August. Daily case numbers in EU are around 60,000-100,000 per day for past couple of months.
Seasonality is about similar - in that they have a winter especially, their coldest month is January. In fact they have been in Monsoon season for a few months which I would imagine encourages indoor living.
Case numbers in UP have been reasonably low for 3 months. In Mid June they were 100+ cases daily and have gradually declined.
They had a surge in April/ May. All of India did. Some say there were a lot of migrant labourers returning to UP from other parts at that time due to lockdowns. Daily cases now of 15 or 30 are out of 240 million people and the test positivity rate at the moment is 0.01%.
Their highest surge cases were around 30,000 per day for a short time. This is out of 240 million people. (We had surge cases of 7-8000 out of 5 million).
Their death rate per million from Covid is 64 per million. This is much much lower than US/Europe.
I don't know what is happening there. They could explode like I said. But their government did introduce widespread prophylaxis and early treatment with Ivermectin. Whether this is responsible or not, and I do not know, surely someone should be looking very closely at how a huge and high density population somewhere on earth is having a handful of daily Covid cases right now.
https://indianexpress.com/article/citie ... w-7311786/
A year after the country’s first Covid-19 cluster, with 5 cases, was reported in Agra district, the Uttar Pradesh government has claimed that it was the first state to have introduced a large-scale “prophylactic and therapeutic” use of Ivermectin and added that the drug helped the state to maintain a lower fatality and positivity rate as compared to other states.
Citing the results from Agra in the month of May and June last year, following which the use of Ivermectin, a medicine to treat parasitic ailments, along with Doxycycline was introduced as a protocol across the state for both prophylactic as well as treatment purposes, the state Health Department said it would conduct a controlled study once the second wave of the pandemic subsides.
The state Health Department introduced Ivermectin as prophylaxis for close contacts of Covid patients, health workers as well as for the treatment of the patients themselves through a government order on August 6, 2020, after a committee headed by the Director General, Medical and Health Services, gave it the go ahead.
Big edit made to EU daily case numbers - I had a walk in the woods and realised the number I saw on a dashboard must be tests administered and not cases!