Vaccine megathread

[Scotty]

Ok I think I get it now. The confusion was nothing to do with 74/75%. It was that you equated herd immunity with Community Level Protection.

Sorry, I worded it badly.

[knownunknown]

Michael Martin would not agree with you, he just announced on RTE News that Ireland is 93% vaccinated.

Just watched it on the RTE player aswell. about 7minutes 20 seconds he says "we have 93% of the Irish people fully vaccinated". I guess you can blame him for spreading the misinformation. Where is the official figures on the rates of vaccination? (Not to you specifically kadman, more generally to the thread!)

[Scotty]

https://covid19ireland-geohive.hub.arcg ... ccinations

88.21% according to that gov site.

[schmittel]

It makes perfect sense. Just because it makes no sense to you, doesn't mean it's wrong. You don't have to understand it. Luckily for you there is a whole team of experts who are far higher qualified than you and I to make the decisions on our behalf.

Sure, I don't have to understand it, but would you not agree it seems reasonable to want to understand it, given the seriousness of the situation?

Genuine question, if it makes perfect sense to you, can you help me understand it?

It makes perfect sense that if cases are rising government experts want to do what they can to reduce transmission. I get that.

But what is the logic behind changing the close contact requirements of school children so that classmates of positive cases are not deemed a transmission risk and as such do not have to self isolate?

And what is the logic behind maintaining strict restrictions on a minority of 300k of unvaccinated adults who may wish to go to the pub occasionally for an hour or two whilst easing the restrictions on the majority of 900k unvaccinated children who are going to school daily for 5 - 7 hours?

That seems counter intuitive to me and I genuinely don't understand why the experts have take these decisions. Can you explain it to me?

[kadman]

Sorry, I've confused you using 75% on one post and 74% in another.

We've a population of 4.9m. 900k kids and 300k adults are unvaccinated so only about 75% of the population are vaccinated. Community Level protection is not 'achieved'. It's simply a measure of the vaccinated population. It could be 1%, could be 100%.

People keep saying we've 90% vaccinated, or 92,% or 93% or whatever. We don't. We have 75% of the population vaccinated.

The only people saying we are 93% vaccinated is Michael Martin here at 31.53 in the video.
Its not a figure I pulled out of the blue.

https://www.rte.ie/news/player/six-one-news/

[Scotty]

The only people saying we are 93% vaccinated is Michael Martin here at 31.53 in the video.
Its not a figure I pulled out of the blue.

https://www.rte.ie/news/player/six-one-news/

oh I know you didn't. I've seen and heard it quoted a lot.

[Scotty]

But what is the logic behind changing the close contact requirements of school children...

Under the old system the schools would have been empty most of the time. Too many asymptomatic and healthy kids sitting at home because they were deemed close contacts. The time my own daughter tested positive (Leaving Cert last Feb), several of her class mates were deemed close contacts and had to be tested twice and stay at home in the mean time. A week later it was another class mate. Incidentally, all her class mated tested negative as did all of us in the house.

[Scotty]

And what is the logic behind maintaining strict restrictions on a minority of 300k of unvaccinated adults who may wish to go to the pub occasionally for an hour or two whilst easing the restrictions on the majority of 900k unvaccinated children who are going to school daily for 5 - 7 hours?

I've been in 7 or 8 pubs in the last 6 weeks and only once was I asked for a cert. I was in a pub in Dublin city centre last Saturday evening and they were 3 deep standing at the bar being served pints with no a mask in sight on staff or punters. I haven't seen any 'strict' regulations. But that's beside the point....

The logic is that as unprotected individuals they are at higher risk of becoming infected and ending up in A&E. Yes, I know the staff may well be unvaccinated but they're supposed to be masked.

[schmittel]

Under the old system the schools would have been empty most of the time. Too many asymptomatic and healthy kids sitting at home because they were deemed close contacts.

Too many asymptomatic kids sitting at home instead of being in a classroom? That's the bit I find counterintuitive.

Can you talk me through the community health benefits of having them in the classroom instead of at home?

[schmittel]

I've been in 7 or 8 pubs in the last 6 weeks and only once was I asked for a cert. I was in a pub in Dublin city centre last Saturday evening and they were 3 deep standing at the bar being served pints with no a mask in sight on staff or punters. I haven't seen any 'strict' regulations. But that's beside the point....

Indeed, beside the point. If certs/restrictions are not being checked does not matter whether restrictions are lifted or not.

The logic is that as unprotected individuals they are at higher risk of becoming infected and ending up in A&E. Yes, I know the staff may well be unvaccinated but they're supposed to be masked.

Yes I get that logic, but it's not just about A&E, it's about bringing case numbers down. What I specifically don't get/what I asked is why an unvaccinated pub goer is at higher risk of getting getting infected/transmitting than a schoolchild? Does that make sense to you?

[Scotty]

Too many asymptomatic kids sitting at home instead of being in a classroom? That's the bit I find counterintuitive.

Can you talk me through the community health benefits of having them in the classroom instead of at home?

Mam and Dad can go to work! Simple as that. My Mrs runs a care company with 200 carers. When schools are closed it causes mayhem and some very vulnerable people are put at risk. I can only imagine what it's like for frontline healthcare.

[Scotty]

What I specifically don't get/what I asked is why an unvaccinated pub goer is at higher risk of getting getting infected/transmitting than a schoolchild? Does that make sense to you?

I guess it's down to age and corresponding risk. I don't think they're at higher risk of getting infected, but they are at higher risk of severe covid.

[schmittel]

Mam and Dad can go to work! Simple as that. My Mrs runs a care company with 200 carers. When schools are closed it causes mayhem and some very vulnerable people are put at risk. I can only imagine what it's like for frontline healthcare.

So you're saying our highly qualified experts tasked with fighting Covid believe it is better to have infected kids in class transmitting the disease so Mum and Dad can go to work? And this makes perfect sense to you?!

If that's the case, it's accepting that we have reached a pretty high vaccination rate, incremental increases in vaccinations not going to have a huge benefit, and we have to live with the transmissions and manage the disease so life can get back to normal. Then the government should just have proceed with their plan to ease restrictions on October 22nd.

[Scotty]

If that's the case, it's accepting that we have reached a pretty high vaccination rate, incremental increases in vaccinations not going to have a huge benefit, and we have to live with the transmissions and manage the disease so life can get back to normal.

Yea, I agree. I think we are currently in our best position. Until there are far better vaccines things are not going to get better than they are right now. Numbers will rise from now til January. Hopefully not enough to cause more lockdowns. After January they'll return to where we are now more or less but they won't get any better. Annual boosters will start to roll out and it will all become the norm.

I think even if u12's vaccines are approved there won't be much of a take up and not many more of the 300k unvaxxed are going to change their mind. So I think actually, we're almost at 100% as far as vaccines are concerned.

[schmittel]

Yea, I agree. I think we are currently in our best position. Until there are far better vaccines things are not going to get better than they are right now. Numbers will rise from now til January. Hopefully not enough to cause more lockdowns. After January they'll return to where we are now more or less but they won't get any better. Annual boosters will start to roll out and it will all become the norm.

I think even if u12's vaccines are approved there won't be much of a take up and not many more of the 300k unvaxxed are going to change their mind. So I think actually, we're almost at 100% as far as vaccines are concerned.

Just to be clear, are you saying you think it is better to have the infected kids transmitting the disease in class than asking them to self isolate? i.e that makes sense to you?

[Scotty]

Just to be clear, are you saying you think it is better to have the infected kids transmitting the disease in class than asking them to self isolate? i.e that makes sense to you?

Those that test positive, no. Close contacts and everyone else, yes.

• When the kids are out of school, they're mixing anyway.
• They're low risk of severe infection or even being symptomatic at all.
• Thousands of kids off school means thousands of parents off work, including frontline/essential.
• Better for their mental health and education to be in school, in my opinion.

[schmittel]

Those that test positive, no. Close contacts and everyone else, yes.

I think that’s nuts. We’ll have to agree to disagree so.

But I don’t think anybody who is advocating encouraging asymptomatic transmission in schools so other, possibly asymptomatic, household members can go to work with 200 carers is on firm ground to preach about getting vaccinated #ForUsAll!

[Scotty]

I think that’s nuts. We’ll have to agree to disagree so.

But I don’t think anybody who is advocating encouraging asymptomatic transmission in schools so other, possibly asymptomatic, household members can go to work with 200 carers is on firm ground to preach about getting vaccinated #ForUsAll!

The carers are in two person bubbles and have no contact with other staff.

[Scotty]

I think that’s nuts. We’ll have to agree to disagree so.

You don't remember early in lockdown them opening creches/playschools just for frontline staff? So they could go to work? It was all well and good closing the schools when retail and hospitality was closed but doing it now would be disaster. Places are finding it hard enough to get staff as it is without making tens of thousands stay at home to mind the kids.

They're ultra low risk to each other. Let them sit in class.

[schmittel]

You don't remember early in lockdown them opening creches/playschools just for frontline staff? So they could go to work? It was all well and good closing the schools when retail and hospitality was closed but doing it now would be disaster. Places are finding it hard enough to get staff as it is without making tens of thousands stay at home to mind the kids.

They're ultra low risk to each other. Let them sit in class.

I’m not talking about shutting schools for the sake of it, just that we take reasonable measures to ensure infected kids are not sitting in classrooms. They’re not ultra low risk if they’re infected with Covid!

[isha]

Never mentioned anything about acheiving herd immunity. Simply that c.75% are vaccinated. Try and keep up.

You did. In the post to which I was replying you said..

But at the end of the day, and for the purpose of herd immunity, or Community Level Protection, as it's now being called, the actual figure is 74%

[Scotty]

You did. In the post to which I was replying you said..

Yes, I was talking about the vaccinated to unvaccinated ratio, not 'achieving' something. Apologies, I worded it wrong.

[isha]

Yes, I was talking about the vaccinated to unvaccinated ratio, not 'achieving' something. Apologies, I worded it wrong.

You also said ''try and keep up'' after wording it wrong, which was rude.

Anyway, more generally on the topic of Covid, this is an interesting graph by a twitterer.
It shows Covid admissions to Irish hospitals divided into those admitted specifically because of Covid, and those who are in hospital for some other reason but then test positive. The person making the graph seems to imply this is due to hospital transmission and ineffective disease control practices, but I do not agree that this is the only possibility. Perhaps they are having emergency surgery or procedures and cannot be discharged but test positive (?)
Having said that I know from people I know going for elective surgeries at least that people are being tested before they are admitted.



Also just going to add again my little excel of deaths this past month from Covid In Ireland and vaccination status. As it was ignored and I think it is very relevant to the situation.

Sept 11 - Oct 9.jpg (48.41 KiB) Viewed 2551 times

[Scotty]

You also said ''try and keep up'' after wording it wrong, which was rude.

Yes it was. I apologies.

[Scotty]

Anyway, more generally on the topic of Covid, this is an interesting graph by a twitterer.
It shows Covid admissions to Irish hospitals divided into those admitted specifically because of Covid, and those who are in hospital for some other reason but then test positive. The person making the graph seems to imply this is due to hospital transmission and ineffective disease control practices, but I do not agree that this is the only possibility. Perhaps they are having emergency surgery or procedures and cannot be discharged but test positive (?)
Having said that I know from people I know going for elective surgeries at least that people are being tested before they are admitted.

I'd like to know where he got the information because I've been very interested to know this for a while (though I don't have time right now to review the info).
How many of ICU with covid would be in ICU even if they didn't have covid?
How many of the c.40 deaths this month with covid would have died when they did with or without covid?

The person making the graph seems to imply this is due to hospital transmission and ineffective disease control practices,

This doesn't surprise me. I can't prove it and I'd deny it if asked but I know frontline staff who tested positive in the height of it and were told to come to work unless they were showing symptoms. I think the whole health service would have collapsed altogether otherwise. I suspect there'll be plenty of whistleblowers when the time comes.