Vaccine megathread

[GrowlerG]

I think its fair to say that vaccinated people are becoming equally complacent .
Me too.

Indeed. But kind of is self fulling prophecy, then.

State studying doesn't work. Doesn't study, fails exam. Look studying doesn't work.

Hey people are tired off it. I get it.

[CelticRambler]

That's been a large part of my takeaway from this pox. It kicked our 21st century notions of invincibility squarely in the dangly parts and in a way that wouldn't have happened in the past. Taking a step back if we look at the real world fatality rate of this disease it's turning out to be one of the least dangerous pandemics in human history, yet it has rattled our hubris cages in a big way. [ ... ] Can you imagine the carnage if a novel version of smallpox marched out of a jungle somewhere and ended up in a wetmarket in SE Asia.

Of all the mistakes and bad decisions that have been made in the handling of this disease outbreak by various governments (and reaction of the public to same) I believe the biggest danger is that the whole saga creates a precedent of sorts, one in which the "fake news"/"alternative facts"/"legitimate contrary opinion"/"personal bodily integrity" arguments are all deemed valid and reasonable, regardless of what malady might come at us next.

At this stage, even if the next pandemic is characterised by people falling down in the streets, with blood spurting from their eyeballs while they writhe in Hollywoodian convulsions, all the misplaced drama, hyperbole and politicisation that's been slathered over this current situation will have people primed to say "yeah, right ... heard it all the last time, not falling for that line again ... "

[GrowlerG]

We've had a few years of real news being undermined by people calling it fake news. Now we are drowning in fake news being passed as real news. Head melting.

[Berties_Horse]

On verge of second vaccine, and not a moment too soon. As much as I revile the government's feeble abdication of responsibility to NPHET, vaccines are the only meaningful way out of this unholy mess. The good times are returning, slowly but surely. The conspiracy theorists are in for a challenging winter.

[scooby]

But I'm not asking about vaccines. I'm asking is that not how herd immunity works. It's not about making everyone immune. It's not a direct effect, it's an indirect (secondary) effect of vaccinations.

Vaccines afaik are never 100% effective. There's always a certain % they don't work on. They are all "leaky".

Herd immunity is not exclusive to vaccines either - plenty of viruses have died out in the past due to natural population wide immunities.
Vaccines can yield herd immunity - if they are effective enough to stop the spread of the virus amongst vaccinated people SARS-COV-2 vaccines are not this effective. There are too many "breakthrough" cases in vaccinated people for the virus to ever be wiped out, or for any meaningful population wide immunity ever be achieved.

You can see this in Israel, Iceland, Malta already - high vaccination countries that are still seeing infection surges. Same goes for select regions of the US with high vaccinations but still case outbreaks. Disease outcomes are better with the vaccine, but it is not good enough to ever achieve herd immunity.

[Memento Mori]

Got my second jab today. Nurse (not sure if vaccinators actually have any medical qualifications) was very frank in saying that because I found the first one rough, the second one will be considerably worse.

[scooby]

Also just on herd immunity (slightly off-topic but ehh) - another reason why it is impossible is because covid has been detected in a massive amount of animal species. Herds of deer in the US are testing positive for covid too. And we all heard those news stories earlier about gorillas and tigers and whatever in zoos testing positive. That means there are massive animal reservoirs for these viruses - short of vaccinated all the animals too, we will not stop these viruses from spreading and mutating.

The focus should be firmly on treatments at this stage.

[isha]

Yes the animal reservoirs are extensive - in the white tailed deer population in the US it goes right back to beginning of pandemic too. No animals showed signs of sickness.

To see if infections were occurring in deer, scientists obtained both pre-pandemic and post-pandemic blood samples from 624 deer located in Michigan, Illinois, Pennsylvania, and New York, per National Geographic. After analyzing 385 blood samples collected between January and March 2021, 40 percent, or 152 wild deer, had antibodies for SARS-CoV-2, Nature reports. Michigan saw the highest percentage of deer primed with antibodies for the virus at 67 percent out of 113 samples, reports James Gorman for the New York Times. Three wild deer blood samples from January 2020, when the virus was just beginning to spread in the U.S., also contained antibodies, Nature reports.

https://www.smithsonianmag.com/smart-ne ... 180978366/

[Wibbs]

Got my second jab today. Nurse (not sure if vaccinators actually have any medical qualifications) was very frank in saying that because I found the first one rough, the second one will be considerably worse.

It seems to vary all over the place MM. I've heard what the nurse told you and the opposite and have heard both from people I know. They were all Pfizer AFAIK. Some said the first was worse, some the second though more reported the second being the heavy hitter. One guy who had for some reason* previously told me he suffered zero effects, has subsequently admitted him and his missus were both laid low from thier jabs, again the second one being the worst.

As for my experience; I had no injection site pain or anything like that. The only "symptom" I noticed was the morning after the injection I felt a little feverish, but without any actual measurable fever, kinda warm and fuzzy and actually in a pleasant enough way tbh. That lasted the morning and that's been about it. Today I'm as normal. Now saying that no doubt I'll have a delayed reaction and my legs will fall off over the weekend.

I have heard - and I dunno how much stock can be put in it - that if you have a strong reaction to the vaccine it may mean if you actually caught the pox itself you'd be more floored by it than someone who had a mild reaction. Or I've heard a strong reaction is a good sign and means your body is producing a better immune response than someone with no reaction. Who bloody knows.

Though of those I know the ones who got the J&J suffered the least by far from feeling crap. Pretty much all the two jab mRNA people reported some unpleasant effects, though mostly mild. Save for two guys who have refused to get the second jab because the first buggered them up so badly. I can say I'm glad I held out for the J&J.




*I think he thought I was somehow anti vaccination because I was holding out for the J&J so initially said it was all a breeze and I should just go to a two jab vaccination centre. He only told me after he heard I'd got a vaccine. I dunno why he thought me anti vaccination when I was specifically going to be vaccinated, just by the type I wanted. Then again I have found there are two camps in this vaccine stuff, both are hardline and both go a bit mental on even the sniff of heresy from their personal position.

[316670]

Not looking good for the vaccinated
Jewish Israelis are heavily vaccinated, while Palestinians are not
Covid cases are increasing for Jewish Israelis, but not for Palestinians
The same thing is happening in Ireland, cases are rising as we increases vaccinations,
Could it be the vaccinations are causing the cases?

https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/ ... /palestine

[Supercell]

Not looking good for the vaccinated
Jewish Israelis are heavily vaccinated, while Palestinians are not
Covid cases are increasing for Jewish Israelis, but not for Palestinians
The same thing is happening in Ireland, cases are rising as we increases vaccinations,
Could it be the vaccinations are causing the cases?

https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/ ... /palestine

And yet hospitalisations look like this..

hospitals.PNG (44.64 KiB) Viewed 7070 times

Its a casedemic more than anything else right now, we need to get on with getting back to normal. I strongly suspect like India and the UK the case numbers will spike and level off, but not drop back very low again, its endemic.

[Wibbs]

The same thing is happening in Ireland, cases are rising as we increases vaccinations,

We're also opening up more and more and are more open than we have been in 18 months, so of course cases will rise, the figure to look at are the hospitalisations and deaths.

Could it be the vaccinations are causing the cases?

Only in cloud cuckoo land. I've had multiple work related PCR tests for covid all negative and I'll be be having one tomorrow and I'll bet the farm it'll be negative too, just like all the other people I know who've been vaccinated and had subsequent tests.

So cases are rising and vaccination has some impact on this as a) the vaccines don't entirely prevent transmission and b) the vaccinated are more likely to take more risks than they would a year ago with no vaccines and c) the country is more open. However look at this page https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... y/ireland/ Look at the rising daily rates. Then look at the daily death rates. They're going in the opposite direction. Note this wasn't the case in the rising cases in January of this year when far fewer were vaccinated. If there was ever a simple pair of graphs that showed that the vaccines are reducing hospitalisations and deaths those two are it.

[Memento Mori]

It seems to vary all over the place MM. I've heard what the nurse told you and the opposite and have heard both from people I know. They were all Pfizer AFAIK. Some said the first was worse, some the second though more reported the second being the heavy hitter. One guy who had for some reason* previously told me he suffered zero effects, has subsequently admitted him and his missus were both laid low from thier jabs, again the second one being the worst.

As for my experience; I had no injection site pain or anything like that. The only "symptom" I noticed was the morning after the injection I felt a little feverish, but without any actual measurable fever, kinda warm and fuzzy and actually in a pleasant enough way tbh. That lasted the morning and that's been about it. Today I'm as normal. Now saying that no doubt I'll have a delayed reaction and my legs will fall off over the weekend.

I have heard - and I dunno how much stock can be put in it - that if you have a strong reaction to the vaccine it may mean if you actually caught the pox itself you'd be more floored by it than someone who had a mild reaction. Or I've heard a strong reaction is a good sign and means your body is producing a better immune response than someone with no reaction. Who bloody knows.

Though of those I know the ones who got the J&J suffered the least by far from feeling crap. Pretty much all the two jab mRNA people reported some unpleasant effects, though mostly mild. Save for two guys who have refused to get the second jab because the first buggered them up so badly. I can say I'm glad I held out for the J&J.




*I think he thought I was somehow anti vaccination because I was holding out for the J&J so initially said it was all a breeze and I should just go to a two jab vaccination centre. He only told me after he heard I'd got a vaccine. I dunno why he thought me anti vaccination when I was specifically going to be vaccinated, just by the type I wanted. Then again I have found there are two camps in this vaccine stuff, both are hardline and both go a bit mental on even the sniff of heresy from their personal position.

Thanks Wibbs. I've heard a bit of everything too, it's hard to know who or what to believe. I am someone who is very rarely ill, so I actually found the idea of getting something that may/will make me feel ill or under the weather quite difficult to process, especially when I could expect similar symptoms if I actually got the covid. But it's done now. I already feel achy in my joints so I am bracing myself for a crap day tomorrow and have booked it off work.

I was not actually asked if I consent today which I thought was interesting. The nurse (or whatever) cheerily told me I will be getting my vaccine cert in a few days "so you can do things again". It's not their fault so I did not say anything but the whole thing is bloody dystopian.

[CuisleBeat]

Could it be the vaccinations are causing the cases?

Have you ever read the reference to the association between storks nesting and the increase in births in an Alsation village by the pioneering statistician George Udny Yule in his seminal statistics book? This is a version of the same confounded correlation.

I don't normally take on these types of post and I admire those posters who try (and keep trying) to refute such incredible misinformation. However, today I'm waiting on a phonecall from a friend whose husband is now on a ventilator with Covid and it's not looking good. Neither of them are vaccinated because they believed this kind of thing. Enough already!

[Hodors Appletart]

almost all vaccinations, including those regularly given to young children as a matter of course, will cause some kind of reaction, so that's normal and to be expected.

Some kids even develop spots, fever etc after the MMR

it's a totally normal response of the human body to being vaccinated

[isha]

I was doing a few sums. They are very much back of the envelope stuff and not intended as statistical analysis. Rather they are for my own benefit to help me mentally (and I confess emotionally)frame the present Covid situation. I make no apology that this will appeal to almost no one

The media is absolutely full of the most terrible stories, I have seen images of infants intubated in the US, for example. Which is true. Infants are dying. 400 children died in 18 months of Covid in the US. https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Provisional-C ... -juj3/data This is terrible. So are the almost 400 deaths from Influenza that happened to children in a previous 1 year period (2009-2010). 200 children aged 0-18 died in 12 months of Influenza in the US in 2019-2020.

The Case Fatality rate of Influenza worldwide is recorded as being between 0.1% and 0.5%. Obviously differs in poor places and in age (massively).
At present the Case Fatality Rate for Covid is recorded on Wiki as 2.15% as of July 2021 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_h ... lity_rates

Yesterday Govt announced 169 deaths in Ireland since April. 94 in April, 37 in May, 14 in June, 16 in June, 8 so far in August.

In April we had total 13014 cases recorded
In May we had total 13173 cases recorded
In June we had total 10300 cases recorded
In July we had total 27497 cases recorded
In August so far to 12th we have 19864 cases recorded

I also counted up March 2021 cases = recorded cases of 15872.


If one adds up all recorded cases from March to present day mid August 2021 - 99720. Without March 83848.

Note - I strongly believe that recorded cases do not reflect actual cases, or the true infection rate. The Infection Fatality rate would thus be (quite likely a good bit) lower than the Case Fatality Rate. But I will go with CFR as it is measurable (even though I am not claiming to be measuring it scientifically - just playing with numbers). I think a lot of people are just not turning up to be tested. Plus there is asymptomatic.

169 deaths as a percentage of 99720 cases is overall 0.17%. Leave out August (19864) and it is 0.2% case fatality rate. Leave out March instead, it is 0.2%.

94 deaths in April as % of March cases is 0.59%
37 deaths in May as % of April cases is 0.28%
14 deaths in June as % of May cases is 0.11%
16 deaths in July as % of June cases is 0.16%
8 deaths in August as % of July cases is 0.03% - this is most likely number to be due update. If it updates to say 20 deaths that would be 0.07% of July cases. 30 deaths would be 0.11%. Remains to be seen. It was in mid July that numbers of cases made a massive jump almost in one day from regularly clocking in prior to that at about 400-500 cases per day to clocking in thereafter at 1000-1400 cases per day consistently (now higher in August).

End of March about 5% of whole population fully vaccinated
End of April 10% of whole population fully vaccinated
End of May 20% of whole population fully vaccinated
End of June 35% of whole population fully vaccinated
End of July 50% of whole population fully vaccinated

I think younger population has most cases now due to socialisation. Their case fatality rate was always multiples lower in this group than elderly group.
Check this table out a German study re IFR and age groups done recently -https://bmcpublichealth.biomedcentral.c ... 7/tables/1


One of the things I notice is that even in April deaths as reflection of March cases (when only 5% of population was fully vaccinated) the CFR of 0.59% is far lower than WIKI CFR of 2.15%.

Also overall the CFR is not significantly more terrifying than Influenza (0.1- 0.5%). Generally speaking, and particularly under aged 65.

[Hodors Appletart]

I think the CFR (to borrow your term) is massively down because the older generations are almost fully vaccinated, and the vaccine is excellent at reducing bad outcomes.

[isha]

I think the CFR (to borrow your term) is massively down because the older generations are almost fully vaccinated, and the vaccine is excellent at reducing bad outcomes.

The vaccine is good for older age groups and vulnerable people, I agree. I have always agreed with that.
The authoritarian push to have it inserted (repeatedly and at 6 months intervals) into every arm regardless of risk or disease IFR is another matter entirely however.

For those interested Geert vanden Bossche has issued another article on what happens with mass vaccination during a pandemic.
https://www.geertvandenbossche.org/post ... mo-sapiens

Mass vaccination in the middle of a pandemic is prone to promoting selection and adaptation of immune escape variants that are featured by increasing infectiousness and resistance to spike protein (S)-directed antibodies (Abs), thereby diminishing protection in vaccinees and threatening the unvaccinated.
This already explains why the WHO’s mass vaccination program is not only unable to generate herd immunity (HI) but even leads to substantial erosion of the population’s immune protective capacity.
As the ongoing universal mass vaccination program will soon promote dominant propagation of highly infectious, neutralization escape mutants (i.e., so-called ‘S Ab-resistant variants’), naturally acquired, or vaccinal neutralizing Abs, will, indeed, no longer offer any protection to immunized individuals whereas high infectious pressure will continue to suppress the innate immune defense system of the nonvaccinated. This is to say that every further increase in vaccine coverage rates will further contribute to forcing the virus into resistance to neutralizing, S-specific Abs.
Increased viral infectivity, combined with evasion from antiviral immunity, will inevitably result in an additional toll taken on human health and human lives. Immediate action needs, therefore, to be taken in order to dramatically reduce viral infectivity rates and to prevent selected immune escape variants from rapidly spreading through the entire population, whether vaccinated or not.

[Scotty]

The media is absolutely full of the most terrible stories, I have seen images of infants intubated in the US, for example. Which is true. Infants are dying. 400 children died in 18 months of Covid in the US.

With Covid, not 'of Covid'.

[Memento Mori]

I'm actually not too bad today at all, nowhere near as bad as I was after first dose (so far)!

[Scotty]

https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/ ... /palestine

This comparison means absolutely nothing unless each country tested the exact same amount of people, which they didn't.

[Hodors Appletart]

I also don't believe any information about Palestine

[PureIsle]

@isha,

that was an interesting exercise with the numbers.
I believe the numbers are somewhat skewed by the testing.
A number are not 'cases' at all but only a positive result of a PCR test. How big or small that number is I doubt we can determine.
I continue to have concerns about a positive PCR test being called a 'case'.
The PCR test purports to show the presence of a particle of the virus, but not any illness developed as a result of the presence of that virus.
This is contrary to medical practice prior to Covid, where cases were counted based on the appearance of symptoms and medical diagnosis.

Have you perchance done an exercise on numbers of 'all mortality' in a given 12 month period for different countries? This would include both direct and indirect results of Covid.
A 12 month period should include one 'flu season so maybe from 1st July to the following 30th June would be a good way to measure for Ireland, although any 12 month period should suffice.

Excess over the normal range should show the impact of Covid on the numbers.

I recall seeing a graph for last year in Ireland and it appeared to indicate a small number of excess deaths over a bad flu season - about 10% of the numbers quoted by the media in Ireland.

[isha]

I am numbered out for today PureIsle

I am not a Covid denier though. There is a virus and it is causing certain demographics a lot of harm. There may also be worse variants to come which may affect other demographics worse than thus far.

[knownunknown]

Big tech monopoly youtube have deleted a press conference held by US congress woman Nicole Malliotakis announcing a lawsuit against the vaccine passport brought in by the NY mayor Bill DeBlasio.

Under the Mayor's recent executive order, New York City will become the first U.S. city to require proof of vaccination for a variety of activities for city employees and customers, including indoor dining, gyms, entertainment, and performances. The lawsuit, led by St. George attorneys Louis Gelormino and Mark Fonte on behalf of local restaurants and gyms, claims de Blasio's executive order violates several HIPAA and privacy laws.



Big tech should stay out of this. They say it "violates community guidelines" which probably in this case are "questioning the efficacy of local health authorities" or something along those lines.