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Vaccine megathread

All things COVID
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isha
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Re: Vaccine megathread

#51

Post by isha »

I am really struggling with this vaccine issue. I absolutely hate the idea of it, but have to also keep my mind open to the possibility that I should get it. I definitely think demographically it is a very bad idea to mass vaccinate during a pandemic, but on an individual and selfish level, in spite of believing mass vaccination creates the selective pressures that will cause vaccine escape, I do not want to fcuk it up and possibly die because of something avoidable. :?
This morning I read some info from Pierre Kory who said that Delta-infected ICU patients are crashing harder and faster, in the experience of his colleagues, and it freaked me out a bit. So much so that I booked an appointment for the Jannsen vaccine in 2 weeks on the basis that I would have to really think harder about all this.

Two other bits of info or input happened today - which sway me in both directions alternately. So, no clearer today and the quest goes on...

I happened to hear a Professor of Immunology on the Last Word, cannot remember who he was, I almost never listen to Covid stuff on the radio, but I was driving and thought okay, let's hear what he says. It was about the kids 12- 15 getting vaccinated. He was asked what are the reasons they should be. And he proceeded to speak down to people with these utterly unscientific reasons - I am paraphrasing from memory and think I have got the gist
1) He said it is true that children very VERY rarely get a complicated case of Covid but do you really want to be that parent who has let their child run the risk of being that extremely rare case? (This to me is an appalling abuse of a risk / benefit analysis; by couching it solely in emotive condescension he has ruined his argument)
2) Do you want your child to be the one that carries this disease to vulnerable members in your family? (This is more emotive coercion bullshit - transmission is proven to happen post-vaccine)
3) He said I am sure you want your child to be able to play sports, go to the cinema, socialise with their friends, and now with the advent of vaccine passports, do you want to impede them? (This is incredibly bad - he is using coercive govt policy mechanisms that are not based on science due to continued viral transmission as a substitute for scientific reasons to vaccinate your child! He goes on about how the vaccine companies have been doing or starting 6 month trials for children. 6 month trials! There can be no long term data from those for children with the whole of their lives ahead of them.)

If this is the level of info people have been getting all along via the public media, this is just propaganda. I was frankly amazed.

The other info/input that impressed me (variably yay and nay) was from an article in the Times of Israel. Note 6,275 people tested positive for COVID in Israel yesterday, with a positive test rate of 4.84%, which is as high as it was in February. Just under 60% of Israel's TOTAL population (including children) is fully vaccinated. That in itself gives one pause.

https://www.timesofisrael.com/among-old ... accinated/
Health Ministry data shows that among Israelis aged 60-plus, there are 16.6 people per 100,000 in serious condition. Among the unvaccinated the figure is 98.5.
For every 100,000 people under 60 who are not vaccinated, 1.6 are in serious condition with the coronavirus. Among the fully vaccinated the figure is 0.5.
That is pretty massive information. In both age groups vaccination is undoubtedly helping on an individual level when it comes to serious disease but the benefit is BY FAR greater for people who are older. Multiples of times greater. Not only does it continue to be the case that older people are much more at risk from Covid but also the risk/benefit analysis of vaccination is completely different in different age groups and (I would add) if there are co-morbidities.


Anyways. Keeping my options open.
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isha
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Re: Vaccine megathread

#52

Post by isha »

I think this Professor, Andrew Pollard, was on the Oxford team that developed the Astra Zeneca vaccine. He is saying vaccines will not enable herd immunity and we should concentrate on treatments that prevent death and serious illness.

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isha
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Re: Vaccine megathread

#53

Post by isha »

Correction to my previous summary of Andrew Pollard.
He does say herd immunity is not possible with these vaccines, new variants will come along, including variants likely to transmit even more despite vaccines, and the correction - he seems to mean that we should concentrate now on a distribution of vaccines worldwide that would prevent ongoing deaths in other places.
It is a bit tricky actually to know exactly what he is saying as he is saying a lot of things all together. I think by ''vaccines going to the right people'' he may actually mean we should have more targeted vaccination which is quite a development and in line with what other disapproved of scientists have said. No mass vaccination but rather targeted campaigns to the vulnerable.

I think we should also concentrate on excellent early treatments generally. Ye can listen to it yerselves if interested.
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Re: Vaccine megathread

#54

Post by knownunknown »

He said we should not make a vaccine program around herd immunity. A point I completely agree with.

Let it be a personal choice and lets not mandate the vaccines for social places. Let them go to the places where the vulnerable still need them.
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Re: Vaccine megathread

#55

Post by GrowlerG »

Thats how vaccines work is herd immunity. Just because current vaccines are sightly less effective and may require a booster does not negate that strategy. Baffled why you guys give up so easily with any bump in the road. Real glass half full mindset.

Yes there will be more variants, yes some other treatment will be preferable going forward. But a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush. Numbers clearly show vaccines and lockdowns are effective.

I dunno why people are rushing to socialize for non essential stuff, when we still have a problem with numbers.

But some people always want to do things the hard way. You don't have to take the vaccine and you are free to take as many risks as you like. But I'm entitled to keep you away from me. Everyone I know who has caught Covid have mostly got it from socializing.

I know one guy who had caught it three times one of those was very sick. He's now having problems with sick leave limits at work. Well duh.
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Re: Vaccine megathread

#56

Post by Wibbs »

GrowlerG wrote: Wed Aug 11, 2021 8:28 am I know one guy who had caught it three times one of those was very sick.
Whoa! :shock: He's caught covid three times? Was this confirmed by testing G? I know someone who caught it twice(confirmed) about ten months apart and someone else who caught it last year and last month an antibody test showed nada so it seems immunity drops right off with this pox and quickly. But three times... jaysus.

That's an odd aspect to this pox too. With SARS, survivors showed some antibody response up to three years after infection.
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Re: Vaccine megathread

#57

Post by GrowlerG »

I know another who had had it at least twice but they are paramedic. Come to think of it I've heard of a couple nurses had a color of times. None want to catch it again if they can avoid it
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isha
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Re: Vaccine megathread

#58

Post by isha »

GrowlerG wrote: Wed Aug 11, 2021 8:28 am Thats how vaccines work is herd immunity. Just because current vaccines are sightly less effective and may require a booster does not negate that strategy. Baffled why you guys give up so easily with any bump in the road. Real glass half full mindset.

Yes there will be more variants, yes some other treatment will be preferable going forward. But a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush. Numbers clearly show vaccines and lockdowns are effective.

The guy who literally developed the AZ vaccine disagrees with you.
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GrowlerG
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Re: Vaccine megathread

#59

Post by GrowlerG »

Wibbs wrote: Wed Aug 11, 2021 8:43 am Whoa! :shock: He's caught covid three times? Was this confirmed by testing G? I know someone who caught it twice(confirmed) about ten months apart and someone else who caught it last year and last month an antibody test showed nada so it seems immunity drops right off with this pox and quickly. But three times... jaysus.

That's an odd aspect to this pox too. With SARS, survivors showed some antibody response up to three years after infection.
I assume so it would all be certified sick leave. I assume due previous illnesses they might have weakness to it.
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Re: Vaccine megathread

#60

Post by GrowlerG »

isha wrote: Wed Aug 11, 2021 8:57 am The guy who literally developed the AZ vaccine disagrees with you.
He said the focus should be on stopping people getting sick and dying and AZ is as effective as all the other vaccines at doing that. But AZ is but it's not effective as other vaccines at preventing transmission. So that they would focus on the first part and not the second is not surprising.

The vaccinated still have vastly lower transmission than the unvaccinated. So it's still going to curb transmission.
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isha
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Re: Vaccine megathread

#61

Post by isha »

GrowlerG wrote: Wed Aug 11, 2021 9:17 am He said the focus should be on stopping people getting sick and dying and AZ is as effective as all the other vaccines at doing that. But AZ is but it's not effective as other vaccines at preventing transmission. So that they would focus on the first part and not the second is not surprising.

The vaccinated still have vastly lower transmission than the unvaccinated. So it's still going to curb transmission.
No, he did not limit his observations to AZ. He said vaccines will not achieve herd immunity with this mutable virus.

The vaccinated also do NOT have "vastly" lower transmission. That is exaggeration.

On a side note, I do not understand why you choose to debate in this thread, where I, for example, am careful to put in ordinary respectable sources to back up my observations, and then run off to other threads to complain about this thread being full of spamming with gibberish. It is odd. You are not compelled to be involved.

You
We've seen it on this site already on a certain topic, spamming all over with just gibberish. Which had now been rolled into one thread.
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CelticRambler
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Re: Vaccine megathread

#62

Post by CelticRambler »

Wibbs wrote: Wed Aug 11, 2021 8:43 am Whoa! :shock: He's caught covid three times? Was this confirmed by testing G? I know someone who caught it twice(confirmed) about ten months apart and someone else who caught it last year and last month an antibody test showed nada so it seems immunity drops right off with this pox and quickly. But three times... jaysus.

That's an odd aspect to this pox too. With SARS, survivors showed some antibody response up to three years after infection.
The only odd thing about this is that people think a coronavirus will act like anything other than a coronavirus. It's a family of viruses renowned for its ability to skip around our immune defences, and to date has successfully avoided every attempt to create a vaccine.

There was a comment earlier in the thread about vaccines having been developed for use in animals against their various coronavirus infections. Yep, they exist. And none of them work. There's one sold in the US for coronavirus infections in cats, for which the disease Feline Infectious Peritonitis is the closest model we have for Covid. It doesn't work, but you can sell anything to the USAmericans, so Pfizer are still making money out of it. We have the disease in Europe, but we don't bother vaccinating against it. There's also a vaccine against bovine coronavirus, which is available and used in Europe - because you can sell anything to farmers if they think that it'll give them a quick fix for bad hygiene and disease management protocols. There's no real evidence that it works, especially as it's usually bundled with other viruses, and farmers that keep less commercial, less intensive, less medicine-dependent herds have as much success without the vaccine as the others do with it ...

The big difference between "animal" coronavirus disease and "human" coronavirus disease (espcially Covid-19) is that we go to great lengths to keep our animal populations healthy - by removing the unhealthy individuals from the gene pool, and keeping the rest in controllable pockets. When it comes to our own species, though, we go to great lengths to perpetuate our defects and susceptibility to disease.

This takes us to the vaccine technology. On this forum, as in so many other places, there are those who say they would prefer the AZ or similar vaccine because it's "proven technology" whereas the mRNA vaccine is "still" and experiment. True enough - but what we know from the animal vaccines is that the "proven" delivery system has proven itself to be pretty useless at preventing coronavirus infections. So if, after decades of failing to make any difference, we're to have any chance of success, it'll have to be with a new technique. Will mRNA be the solution? Having looked many a coronavirus in the eye over the course of my professional career, I'd put my money on the virus. It's not the virus that's the problem, it's humans with delusions of invincibility.

My expectation is that we'll see more and more cases of multiple Covid infections in the same person as SARS-CoV-2 continues to play games with us over the next few years. I haven't trawled through the data to make a proper statistical analysis, but I reckon the people are who have had significant side-effects to the vaccine are probably the same people who would get/have gotten a bad dose of Covid. And the people who've had no side-effects whatsoever would - like the vast majority of cats in homes across the continent - have shrugged off the infection. In that sense, I am inclined to agree with AZ guy: we've never had herd immunity to any coronavirus, and I don't think vaccines will change that.
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Re: Vaccine megathread

#63

Post by scooby »

GrowlerG wrote: Wed Aug 11, 2021 8:28 am Thats how vaccines work is herd immunity.
No its not - vaccines protect the individual. No vaccine only works by vaccinated en mass. They exist to give individual protection.
If you can get "herd immunity" its a bonus, but it is fundamentally not how vaccines work.

Vaccines work by "priming" your immune system by exposing yourself to a small/inactivated portion of the virus, so your immune system can learn to mount a response. So that next time you come into contact your immune system already knows how to fight it. It has nothing to do with population-wide epidemiology.
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Re: Vaccine megathread

#64

Post by GrowlerG »

I don't think herd immunity has ever meant instant prevention of transmission. It's that over time it reduces the frequency of cases that over time will be reduced to either a manageable, acceptable and eventually negligible amount. Previous vaccines took decades to do their work.

We are only a few months into vaccine rollout and people are throwing in the towel. People watch boxsets longer than they've given the vaccines to work.

You could always spread Covid through contact. Vaccines have no effect on preventing contact. Social distancing and hand washing and such prevent contact. If we are mixing more, we are going to spread it more. But if it's manageable that's a reasonable approach.
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Re: Vaccine megathread

#65

Post by Wibbs »

CelticRambler wrote: Wed Aug 11, 2021 9:48 amThis takes us to the vaccine technology. On this forum, as in so many other places, there are those who say they would prefer the AZ or similar vaccine because it's "proven technology" whereas the mRNA vaccine is "still" and experiment. True enough - but what we know from the animal vaccines is that the "proven" delivery system has proven itself to be pretty useless at preventing coronavirus infections. So if, after decades of failing to make any difference, we're to have any chance of success, it'll have to be with a new technique. Will mRNA be the solution?
Actually all the current human vaccines in use in the West are "new"(IIRC the Chinese vaccine runs with an inactivated virus?). The ones in cattle again IIRC use live and inactivated viruses to induce immunity. The Covid 19 human vaccines are either mRNA(Pfizer, Moderna) or viral vector vaccines(J&J, AZ, Sputnik), both relatively new to the game, though the viral vector vaccine type has been in trials and use for longer and aimed at more viruses(ebola, zika and a few others).
It's not the virus that's the problem, it's humans with delusions of invincibility.
+1000

That's been a large part of my takeaway from this pox. It kicked our 21st century notions of invincibility squarely in the dangly parts and in a way that wouldn't have happened in the past. Taking a step back if we look at the real world fatality rate of this disease it's turning out to be one of the least dangerous pandemics in human history, yet it has rattled our hubris cages in a big way. If Covid had shown up in 1918 the chances are high it wouldn't even have been spotted as a new disease. There were fewer 80 year olds around for it to do in, it's effectively "harmless" in the vast majority of young people and set against polio, smallpox, measles, TB, influenza etc that were around back then and "lived with" it would be a tiny threat indeed. But because we've had such success in beating back the ills that affected us in the past we got a little too cosy. The fact that modern hospitals and medical services could be so quickly overwhelmed by this virus a good example. Can you imagine the carnage if a novel version of smallpox marched out of a jungle somewhere and ended up in a wetmarket in SE Asia.
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Re: Vaccine megathread

#66

Post by GrowlerG »

scooby wrote: Wed Aug 11, 2021 10:11 am No its not - vaccines protect the individual. No vaccine only works by vaccinated en mass. They exist to give individual protection.
If you can get "herd immunity" its a bonus, but it is fundamentally not how vaccines work.

Vaccines work by "priming" your immune system by exposing yourself to a small/inactivated portion of the virus, so your immune system can learn to mount a response. So that next time you come into contact your immune system already knows how to fight it. It has nothing to do with population-wide epidemiology.
If you are less likely to get it. You are less likely to spread it. Indirectly that causes herd immunity. No?
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isha
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Re: Vaccine megathread

#67

Post by isha »

On the real world fatality of Covid and this not being a mega pandemic I saw an interesting Twitter thread this morning. I do not know who the chap is, there are a lot of data analyst nerd types punching out charts during this pandemic, and quite a few are interesting. So given the possibility that he might have been cruel to his previous girlfriends or once worn a red cap that from a distance might identify him as a KKK member, here is his thread of several tweets on covid mortality in the UK. March 2020 to August 2021


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Re: Vaccine megathread

#68

Post by GrowlerG »

scooby
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Re: Vaccine megathread

#69

Post by scooby »

GrowlerG wrote: Wed Aug 11, 2021 10:19 am If you are less likely to get it. You are less likely to spread it. Indirectly that causes herd immunity. No?
That is not how vaccines operate - vaccines have and always have protected the recipient.
No vaccine has ever been designed with the express goal of herd immunity - it can happen for less virulent viruses, but its a secondary effect and is totally unrelated to how vaccines work themselves.
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Re: Vaccine megathread

#70

Post by Hodors Appletart »

isha wrote: Wed Aug 11, 2021 10:36 am On the real world fatality of Covid and this not being a mega pandemic I saw an interesting Twitter thread this morning. I do not know who the chap is, there are a lot of data analyst nerd types punching out charts during this pandemic, and quite a few are interesting. So given the possibility that he might have been cruel to his previous girlfriends or once worn a red cap that from a distance might identify him as a KKK member, here is his thread of several tweets on covid mortality in the UK. March 2020 to August 2021
It's never, to my knowledge, been in question that the virus adversely affects older people. I'm not sure what point you are making by showing this graph.
isha wrote: Wed Aug 11, 2021 10:36 amSo given the possibility that he might have been cruel to his previous girlfriends or once worn a red cap that from a distance might identify him as a KKK member,
I'm also unsure what this smart-arsery is about
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isha
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Re: Vaccine megathread

#71

Post by isha »

GrowlerG wrote: Wed Aug 11, 2021 10:49 am Been great charts produced.

https://secretldn.com/coronavirus-charts-artist/
Are you spamming with gibberish....? 😅
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Re: Vaccine megathread

#72

Post by GrowlerG »

scooby wrote: Wed Aug 11, 2021 10:51 am That is not how vaccines operate - vaccines have and always have protected the recipient.
No vaccine has ever been designed with the express goal of herd immunity - it can happen for less virulent viruses, but its a secondary effect and is totally unrelated to how vaccines work themselves.
But I'm not asking about vaccines. I'm asking is that not how herd immunity works. It's not about making everyone immune. It's not a direct effect, it's an indirect (secondary) effect of vaccinations.

Vaccines afaik are never 100% effective. There's always a certain % they don't work on. They are all "leaky".
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Re: Vaccine megathread

#73

Post by GrowlerG »

isha wrote: Wed Aug 11, 2021 11:08 am Are you spamming with gibberish....? 😅
You introduced random charts out of context. I assume that's where you want this conversation to go. So I just followed your lead.
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isha
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Re: Vaccine megathread

#74

Post by isha »

GrowlerG wrote: Wed Aug 11, 2021 11:30 am You introduced random charts out of context. I assume that's where you want this conversation to go. So I just followed your lead.
They are not random charts. They are wholly based on UK Covid mortality data from official govt sources between Mar 2020 and 1st Aug 2021.
They are interesting, if you take a look at them.

The contexts are several including importantly the potentially superior utility of targeted versus mass vaccination.

Edit ed to add - if you enlarge the charts you can see the data sources at top
Last edited by isha on Wed Aug 11, 2021 11:45 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Vaccine megathread

#75

Post by kadman »

Israel’s Covid infections surge as government rolls out booster shots
Further lockdowns in sight as 6,000 cases recorded in day despite 80% of adults vaccinated
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