What's going to happen when we are all* vaccinated?

[seamus]

With the 20 somethings being vaccinated now, we are a matter of weeks away from having all adults vaccinated (or "offered a vaccine"). Suppose the children are then offered a vaccine. What's Halloween going to look like? What about Christmas? Are we going to be having the 12 pubs of Christmas this year and meeting grandma for Christmas day?

I'm hoping all restrictions and limitations would have been eliminated by that time. Vaccines are our best shot against the virus and if we are all vaccinated, then we have given it our best shot and it's time to move on with our lives. I'm not concerned about anyone who has chosen not to be vaccinated.

[Dave Hedgehog]

You'd hope that by Christmas we will be back to more or less normality. I had the rona last Christmas and thankfully the only symptom was lost sense of smell for a couple of weeks, my kids and wife had it too and suffered little to no ill effects. I had my first shot of Pfizer last week. Ultimately we are going to have to live with it for the remainder of our natural lives I think. Its going to be part and parcel of life going forward and with that comes natural immunity. Id expect the vulnerable and those with underlying conditions to get boosters on an annual basis but other than that, hopefully, it will be business as usual sooner rather than later.

[Hodors Appletart]

I expect once everyone is double-jabbed (or janssened) then life will be normal - I do think everyone will be asked to get a shot annually (like the current flu vaccine), but some people will ignore that advice, the most vulnerable will take up the shot when they need it

from next week even, we are expecting to see the fully vaxxed back indoors in pubs etc, with some restrictions in place as regards distance etc

I do think we will see proper normality this side of xmas, barring some new ultra-virulent and vaccine averse strain.

What happens with kids remains to be seem, but that is currently being trialled and I'm hopeful that kids will be able to receive a vaccination in due course.

[Guburnor]

I had hoped life would get back to totally normal when 80% were vaccinated, as I thought that was the herd immunity tipping point.

But apparently we're over 60% now, and numbers are rising.

Screenshot 2021-07-20 at 10.41.07.png (56.35 KiB) Viewed 5545 times

Seems like the vaccine is no silver bullet.

[GrowlerG]

Perhaps the last 20% are the ones doing the most mixing and socializing.

Most of the people I know who have got it recently, or been a close contact it's been through their kids.

[Hodors Appletart]

I think there's confusion between numbers here

Isn't it 60% ish of Adults are currently fully vaccinated, not the total population?

[archfi]

Perhaps the last 20% are the ones doing the most mixing and socializing.

Most of the people I know who have got it recently, or been a close contact it's been through their kids.

My friend and his family (wife, son, daughter) bar the just turned 18 year old daughter were double pfizer jabbed a few months ago.
Daughter went down country for two days with friends to celebrate end of secondary school.
All are positive now - mind you, thankfully symptoms effect are negligible so far - all isolating at home (friend, wife and son are WFH since March last year)

[Guburnor]

I think there's confusion between numbers here

Isn't it 60% ish of Adults are currently fully vaccinated, not the total population?

Not 100% sure TBH but if our total population is just under 5m the IT stats would suggest it is 60% of the total population?

[scooby]

We do know the vaccines arent 100% effective, but also keep in mind that theres a big human behaviour element.
Vaccinated people are generally more likely to socialise (shur I have the jab, be grand) and through that more likely to catch it.

A myriad of factors really - but in the longer term I think a vaccine resistant variant is inevitable and there will be boosters on the go
It's evolution, man!

[FuzzyThinking]

There are a lot of factors beyond our control, but it looks like Ireland is on its way to being one of the most vaccinated countries in the world and that should see us in a better situation than many places.

It's a virus and nobody can really predict exactly what workarounds it'll find that might get it past vaccines. We can surmise and model, but that's all. We also can't control the relatively poorer uptake of vaccines in some neighbouring countries in Europe or the US - there's an anti vaxxer wall there in some countries, including France, the USA, Germany etc and that may lead to more variants. The UK approach over the next few weeks could also either be successful or sink us. We won't and they won't know for 6 weeks or so.

Then you've the huge issue with global vaccine rollout in poorer regions being dependent largely on COVAX and ensuring that's adequately resourced. All we can really do on that is lobby the EU to put money and vaccines into it, but that's going to take time as the task is unprecedented and enormous and there are all sorts of factors at play.

Personally, I think we're going to be dealing with COVID for a long time to come. I wish we had a magic bullet solution that made it all go away, but we don't, yet. We've good tools but they're far from perfect. They'll keep getting better, but I'll be an evolving situation.

I just think we need to avoid going down there US rabbit hole of turning everything into polarised political debates. It's a virus and it's going to try to survive. It's nothing other than something we need practical solutions for. Its existence isn't a matter of debate and you can't negotiate with it. There isn't a perfect solution to this and I think we need to accept that reality.

I'm getting a bit fed up with people expecting total return to 2018 either by immediate eradication of the virus or by sealing us into a bubble, or on the other side of it, the people who want to just bury their heads in the sand going off into mad conspiracy theories and rants because they can't handle the reality of a pandemic.

We need to continue to approach this with sensible solutions and a bit of balance of life with managed and calculated risks.

[seamus]

I feel like we might be surprised just how quickly things start moving on the lifting of restrictions when we get to the end of August and we're touching 90% of adults vaccinated.

[Hodors Appletart]

I feel like we might be surprised just how quickly things start moving on the lifting of restrictions when we get to the end of August and we're touching 90% of adults vaccinated.

100% with you on this

I think there still needs to be concern over schools, but the majority of teachers, SNAs et al will be vaccinated, so will the majority of parents and grandparents of school-going kids - however the virus will spread around the kids themselves.

Will we see "covid play dates" like we sometimes see with Chicken Pox? possibly.

[kadman]

Interesting thing I just came across , might be of interest in the vaccine discussion.

Dr. Robert Malone, who pioneered the mRNA vaccine technology is concerned that the countries with the smallest percentage of their population vaccinated have the fewest number of new Covid cases. Countries with the largest percentages of population vaccinated have surging numbers of new Covid cases.

[Guburnor]

Interesting thing I just came across , might be of interest in the vaccine discussion.

Dr. Robert Malone, who pioneered the mRNA vaccine technology is concerned that the countries with the smallest percentage of their population vaccinated have the fewest number of new Covid cases. Countries with the largest percentages of population vaccinated have surging numbers of new Covid cases.

That is very interesting.



From his Linkedin for context:

The inventor of mRNA vaccines and RNA transfection, Dr. Malone has extensive research and development experience in the areas of pre-clinical discovery research, clinical trials, vaccines, gene therapy, bio-defense, and immunology. He has over twenty years of management and leadership experience in academia, pharmaceutical and biotechnology industries, as well as in governmental and non-governmental organizations.

[kadman]

Very interesting alright. It will be more interesting to see how quickly he will be now vilified and denegrated for
these views. Another prominent expert in his field too. Its this sort of thing that makes it nigh on impossible
to sort the wheat from the chaff.

[isha]

Even more recently reports from Israel on the efficacy of Pfizer re transmission has dropped to 39%, which totally puts the crazy vaccine passports into context.
So far efficacy re bad disease and death seems to be holding somewhat, lessening but not plummeting like transmission efficacy.
That means people who get vax can still be happy THEY are protected ( and I am happy for yiz! ) but if they presently indulge in it they can now stop with the "contagion propaganda" re the great unwashed unvaxxed mobs threatening their freedoms, because they are transmitting also.

https://www.google.ie/amp/s/www.timesof ... train/amp/

This is all before the upcoming variants enter the fray.

Does anyone remember anymore how we were told non-stop by health authorities in 2020 that Covid was a mild illness for the vast majority, many of us would not even notice we had it, that it was mostly a threat to the very old and people with usually severe commorbidities?
It was repeated on every leaflet, hse update, on the news etc.
Either they were lying then or they are doing something weird now. If they were telling the truth then, what has changed? If they were lying then, why are they considered to be so truthful now?

[isha]

Very interesting alright. It will be more interesting to see how quickly he will be now vilified and denegrated for
these views. Another prominent expert in his field too. Its this sort of thing that makes it nigh on impossible
to sort the wheat from the chaff.

Robert has already been consigned to the looney box along with all the other frothing fringe maniacs who still in some cases run busy medical practices, treat hundreds of people on the frontline and teach in Universities.

[kadman]

But what puzzles me most of all, is that an ever increasing number of highly regarded pioneers in their
field for decades, are getting sent to the sin bin. I dont know why, and I want someone to tell me why.

Its not the crackpots, its the peer reviewed professionals, doctors, professors and the like.
Why is the question.

[Hairy-Joe]

With the rise in cases in countries that have a high proportion of the population vaccinated, I have a thought (it's not strong enough to call a theory) that a large proportion of the population immediately after vaccination are leaving their guard down, not following advice and consequently getting infected. I've no data to back that up beyond anecdotal evidence.

Also, from listening to the briefings, it seems that the number of close contacts per case is rising also, indicating that as more people become vaccinated, the more interactions there are.

Anyway, back to the question of what will happen? I think it will never go back fully to the way it was. Masks will become more common in airlines and airports, we will have problems for years due to long Covid, some people will go out to bars and restaurants less (I'm one of them!). Working from home will be more acceptable. The one good thing I can see is it won't be acceptable to come to work with any cold or sniffle. That can be a good thing for the winter flu.

[kadman]

I agree with you on the complacency issue after vaccine. My own family members are exactly like that now.
Of course they were led to believe all the hype about once you get the vaccine, all is good, we are saved.
So now they are partying like its 1999 as the saying goes.

All the relatives now over from the UK, bags of them too. So now my home place is off limits.

But they are partying on.
Once this vaccine thing is over, there will be pan d no 2,3,4, ectc

Its a never ending income stream for big pharma.

[Hairy-Joe]

Its a never ending income stream for big pharma.

Janssen announced that they were not intending on making a profit on their vaccine. They are doing it at cost price.

I also heard the figure than Janssen plowed into the vaccine (as well as building a new factory). It would pay for a good portion of the Children's hospital.

[kadman]

Janssen announced that they were not intending on making a profit on their vaccine. They are doing it at cost price.

I also heard the figure than Janssen plowed into the vaccine (as well as building a new factory). It would pay for a good portion of the Children's hospital.

But didn't the us government give massive amounts of money to the Pharmaceutical industries.
And pharma refused to give out the manufacturing details of the vaccine to 3rd world countries to produce, despite the
fact that they already produce their own medications there.

No amount of money will pay for the childrens hospital with the amount of claims gone in to date for money for additional works.
Thats another debacle entirely. Specialized hospital for a segment of society that has been refused ongoing medical supports
for other issues through out this pandemic.

[Hairy-Joe]

But didn't the us government give massive amounts of money to the Pharmaceutical industries.
And pharma refused to give out the manufacturing details of the vaccine to 3rd world countries to produce, despite the
fact that they already produce their own medications there.

No amount of money will pay for the childrens hospital with the amount of claims gone in to date for money for additional works.
Thats another debacle entirely. Specialized hospital for a segment of society that has been refused ongoing medical supports
for other issues through out this pandemic.

Not disagreeing with you but you must realise that not every pharma product can be made in any pharma site. It's kinda like trying to make a Skoda Octavia in a Tata bus factory and expecting Octavia's to be made straight away.

Also its a lot easier to license the production process to designated partners. A lot of the production process relies on technology developed in house and they don't want it out in the wild. If it's licenced, the licencee site is bound by legal agreements.

For example, see this for Pfizer getting regulatory approval for licenced for two other companies to make their vaccine

[ https://www.ema.europa.eu/en/news/tw ... -vaccine]

The EMA page for the Pfizer vaccine is here. Each medicine licenced in the EMA has its own equivalent page
[https://www.ema.europa.eu/en/medicine ... omirnaty]

[kadman]

It really does not matter where its made, as the pharma companies are free from prosecution anyway.

The UK government has granted pharmaceutical giant Pfizer a legal indemnity protecting it from being sued, enabling its coronavirus vaccine to be rolled out across the country as early as next week.

The Department of Health and Social Care has confirmed the company has been given an indemnity protecting it from legal action as a result of any problems with the vaccine.

[Seafields]

What's the story with hospitalisations and ICU numbers growing? I see another jump today. Do they ever give even a general narrative in the backgrounds? I e. Is there a pattern given... Majority are young unvaccinated, old unvaccinated, old but vaccinated etc