Anyone still glued to this?

[Setanta]

I came across the below this morning. If it is true, or anywhere close to true, there was a terrible loss of life in and around Bakhmut, and for what I wonder?

Bakhmut must have some very important military value to both sides to warrant this number of lives lost and wounded.

Add to those numbers the number of PMC personnel killed and wounded ... reported to be 10,000 killed and maybe 30,000 wounded ..... (I find it difficult to believe the PMC numbers are so much lower than the Ukrainian numbers as those in defensive positions usually have less losses) ..... and the mind boggles at the loss of life for just this one location.

Horrendous!

The head of Wagner group has been reasonably truthful,gives good updates/oversights and it's long known Ukraine were daily rotating in/out 500 troops a day particularly since start of the new year.....the figures claimed as killed/injured for Ukraine could be credible,and to be expected, particularly as last few weeks were near rout/cling-on (US were claiming 70K killed in/around bakhmut weeks ago)


He claimed 20,000 Wagner's lost at bakhmut the other day.....it was slaughter for nothing,I remain skeptical of the claims this was a tactical genius for Ukrainian army,pride and ambition is no substitute for brains,and the stalemate around there should have seen localised peace negotiations/standoff develop weeks ago

[CelticRambler]

@CelticRambler

How do you see the Ukrainian conflict ending?

Will get to that in a minute, but first:

I came across the below this morning. If it is true, or anywhere close to true, there was a terrible loss of life in and around Bakhmut, and for what I wonder?
...

Where did you come across that list, attributed to Prigozhin? Because I cannot find a single reference to it that isn't the same copy-and-paste that you've posted, with not a single link to Prigohzin actually saying any of it. On the face of it, and scratching below the surface, those figures are literally plucked out of thin air and being re-circulated without any foundation whatsoever.

On the other hand, Prigozhin himself gave an on-the-record interview a couple of days ago in which he acknowledged that the Ukrainian Army is probably the toughest army his men have ever faced, and (read his lips) far stronger, far more innovative, far more agile and reactive than the Russian Army. He specifically stated that his people found no Nazis to remove, and that the effect of trying to "demilitarise" Ukraine has resulted in the most militarised country on the continent.

With Prigozhin's rants and interviews being increasingly critical of the current "Happy Grandpa" regime, and following the series of recent incursions into Russia by Free Russia forces of various denomnations - incidentally showing how pathetically useless are the passive defences recently built at a cost of billions of rubles - how I see the Ukrainian conflict ending is with a fragmentation of the current leadership structure in Russia and one faction or another (probably the one that includes Prigozhin) deciding that there's more money to be made/stolen by leaving Ukraine alone and concentrating on raping and pillaging Africa before the Chinese take it all.

In Belgorod, yet another massive bomb was found, another one that inexplicably fell off a Russian plane and never crossed the border. Bearing in mind that the people of this region are closer to Kiyv than Moscow, and that their socio-economic arrangements were quite entangled with those of the other side of the border, you don't have to think too far outside the box to imagine that they might decide that maybe they would be better off being liberated by pro-Ukrainian freedom fighters.

I'm fairly sure the catalyst for some or all of this will be another humiliating rout of Russian/pseuod-Russian forces from a large chunk of Ukrainian territory. I'm not convinced that there'll be a movie-worthy storming of Crimea, but it's entirely feasible that Ukraine will eventually be able to control all points of access to the peninsula - including the port/navy base at Sevastopol - and with no ready supply of water for drinking or irrigation, the place will become a barren wasteland. At least until the dehydrated Russians self-evacuate and let the Ukrainians walk in and restore the territory to something like it was before.

[PureIsle]

- how I see the Ukrainian conflict ending is with a fragmentation of the current leadership structure in Russia and one faction or another (probably the one that includes Prigozhin) deciding that there's more money to be made/stolen by leaving Ukraine alone and concentrating on raping and pillaging Africa before the Chinese take it all.

I'm fairly sure the catalyst for some or all of this will be another humiliating rout of Russian/pseuod-Russian forces from a large chunk of Ukrainian territory. I'm not convinced that there'll be a movie-worthy storming of Crimea, but it's entirely feasible that Ukraine will eventually be able to control all points of access to the peninsula - including the port/navy base at Sevastopol - and with no ready supply of water for drinking or irrigation, the place will become a barren wasteland. At least until the dehydrated Russians self-evacuate and let the Ukrainians walk in and restore the territory to something like it was before.

Well considering that the Ukrainians have stated that all residents of Crimea will have to be eliminated - killed - when Ukraine wins this 'war', I can see no reason why Russia would allow that to happen. Keeping in mind that Russia is a nuclear power with the stated intent of using those nukes if the existence of the Russian Federation is threatened, and Crimea being part of that federation, and there being no reason to doubt the Russian intent, I fail to see how you imagine Ukraine is going to win this and essentially break up the Russian Federation.

[CelticRambler]

... the Ukrainians have stated that all residents of Crimea will have to be eliminated - killed - when Ukraine wins this 'war' ...

When did they say that? Sounds like more of the nonsense you keep posting that has no basis in fact.

Keeping in mind that Russia is a nuclear power with the stated intent of using those nukes if the existence of the Russian Federation is threatened, and Crimea being part of that federation, and there being no reason to doubt the Russian intent, I fail to see how you imagine Ukraine is going to win this and essentially break up the Russian Federation.

(a) Crimea in not part of the Russian Federation; and (b) the Russian state a lot and do very little. You might have missed it, but Ukraine has been lobbing missiles at sites in Crimea for months now, up to and including a series of attacks yesterday/overnight.

Ukraine doesn't need to break up the Russian Federation - the events of this last week have shown that there's more than enough simmering unrest for the Russians to do that themselves. And all the time Putin & Co. are looking west and portraying NATO as the big bad bully, China is laying the groundwork for its own "liberation" of stolen territory.

It'll all come down to money: the Russian Federation is simply too big and now too poor, with pretty miserable future prospects, to continue in its current form. Those who want to make money - starting with the likes of Prigozhin and the infamous oligarchs - will find there's a better return to be had in carving off bits of the RF for their own profit. It'll only take the secession one of the Russian Republics to start a mad scramble for independence and a "brighter future".

[isha]

When did they say that?

Sounds like more of the nonsense you keep posting that has no basis in fact.

The first sentence is legitimate debate. Asking for sources, backing up statements etc.

The second sentence is ad hominem. It's unnecessary.

All throughout the pandemic people like PureIsle and myself questioned the government response and vaccine mandates. Instead of debating us most people who thought they knew everything and were upholding some kind of moral majority position resorted to endless ad hominem attacks on us, without considering our positions. As time goes on it becomes more clear that government responses were devastating to public health and the global economy, and that vaccine mandates were illegitimate and immoral.

PureIsle, Setanta, yourself and others have different opinions about the Russian invasion and subsequent Ukrainian war. Facts are very very hard to come by. There are significant players on the global stage who have very different opinions from each other eg the US and the UK differ significantly.

No need to make people out to be "posting nonsense" if all you (legitimately) want is a source.
I would feel the same about posters calling your posts nonsense. It's just different positions. Different points of view. The truth will be some complex combination of many points of view.

[PureIsle]

When did they say that? Sounds like more of the nonsense you keep posting that has no basis in fact.

I am unsure of the date of the statement/video. I saw it on 21st May 2023.
It was by the head of the GUR of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Kirill Budanov, who announced plans to physically destroy about 3 million residents of the Crimea.

(a) Crimea in not part of the Russian Federation;

Yes it is and has been since shortly after they voted and were accepted into the RF.

The same applies to the Donbass since their referendum.

and (b) the Russian state a lot and do very little. You might have missed it, but Ukraine has been lobbing missiles at sites in Crimea for months now, up to and including a series of attacks yesterday/overnight.

You think in war missiles are not lobbed into opposing territories?

No idea what your point is as it does not in any way address the fact that the RF is a nuclear power who has said explicitly that they will use nukes if their existence is threatened.

So I still fail to see how you imagine Ukraine is going to win this and essentially break up the Russian Federation. You are well aware that the stated intent of those supporting Ukraine with weapons and money, is the break-up of the RF. Those same 'supporters' are using Ukraine in the hope they will do this.

[CelticRambler]

I am unsure of the date of the statement/video. I saw it on 21st May 2023.
It was by the head of the GUR of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Kirill Budanov, who announced plans to physically destroy about 3 million residents of the Crimea.

Oh, that. Yeah. That's not what he said - that's the pro-Moscow spin put on it by the faithful re-tweeters. What he actually said (well, the closest accurate translation) was

There will be a lot of work ( after our return to Crimea.) These people are not just "disloyal" - these are people with the altered mind. They lived under the Russian propaganda for 9 years.
-So what are you going to do with them?
- It's easy. They should be held accountable in a just manner. The just manner in our understanding is that certain people should be eliminated physically for their actions. That's why we have a lot of work ahead of us. Our victory is not where it will all end. We'll have a long way to go with the process of reintegration.

So an acknowlegement that 3 million people (many of whom were planted their by Moscow, by the way) will have lived under Putin's lying, cheating, murderous regime, and it is inevitable that many of them will have swallowed the propaganda completely - much like a good number of westerners. For that reason the Ukrainian government will have to put a lot of time and energy into reintegrating those people into Ukrainian society, especially those who have acted in a way that has harmed that same society. Obviously Budanov believes that some - "certain people" - are beyond redemption and deserve the death penalty. So that puts him on the same level as a fair few states in the United States of America. But he did not say that 3 million Crimean Russians would be physically destroyed.

So I still fail to see how you imagine Ukraine is going to win this and essentially break up the Russian Federation. You are well aware that the stated intent of those supporting Ukraine with weapons and money, is the break-up of the RF. Those same 'supporters' are using Ukraine in the hope they will do this.

Given that you seem to inform yourself primarily from pro-Russian sources, and repeatedly post points that are easily disproven, I'm not surprised that (a) you've re-interpreted my comments as saying that Ukraine is going to break up the RF [no, it'll be Russians that break it up]; and (b) since the end of the Cold War, no-one has being trying to break up the RF. That's another imaginary Russian fear promoted and perpetuated by the Happy Grandpa. Right up until February last year, despite the invasion of Crimea and the arrival of the "little green men" in the Donbass region, the West was treating Russia like a delinquent teenager - needing a good slap from time to time, but part of the family.

[PureIsle]

When will you address the main point?

How do you imagine Ukraine wins against a nuclear power that has stated it will use nukes if its very existence is threatened?

Of course what a 'win' means changes over time, but for the moment I will take that 'win' to mean, as you have posted, that Ukraine takes not only Donbass but also Crimea and Russia is broken up into smaller pieces.

Now, please explain by what means you see that win happening.

[Bishop_Brennan]

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-65720853

Come on Russia win this fecking war!!!

feck sake...

[CelticRambler]

How do you imagine Ukraine wins against a nuclear power that has stated it will use nukes if its very existence is threatened?

Ukraine has already won. We're just waiting for Russia to accept that it's lost and to stop wasting yet more men and money on the pointless vanity project of one man.

And the events of the last nearly 500 days have shown that Russian won't use nukes, even when its existence is threatened - that's turned out to be just one more bluff.

I see that Prigozhin (or someone working on his behalf) is now putting up posters in Belgorod and elsewhere indicating that he's a "real" leader, who doesn't hide away in a bunker ... Methinks there's a change in leadership coming soon to everyone's favourite Kremlin. Prigozhin is a despicable, brutal butcher and an unapologetic criminal, but I think he's also a cute hoor and knows how and when to change direction. Given the content of his recent interview, it wouldn't surprise me in the least to learn in due course that he's come to some "back channel" arrangement with the Ukrainians to be the kind of Russian leader they feel they can negotiate with.

[PureIsle]

Ukraine has already won. We're just waiting for Russia to accept that it's lost and to stop wasting yet more men and money on the pointless vanity project of one man.

OK. You cannot suggest how Ukraine might win despite being asked several times..

You must have changed your stance of what a 'win' means so.
Having lost Crimea and Donbass and maybe 150,000 soldiers killed or so badly wounded they can no longer perform military duties, you claim they have won.

It appears you are just parroting the BS of the Western media ...... which BTW is beginning to pull back from that stance towards a more reality based position. It has a long way to go still, but the narrative has started to change.

And the events of the last nearly 500 days have shown that Russian won't use nukes, even when its existence is threatened - that's turned out to be just one more bluff.

It is illogical to think that because any nuclear power has not used nukes to date, they never will.

It is nonsense to suggest that the existence of Russia is threatened or has been in the last 500 days.
Throwing a few missiles into Russia or a silly incursion over the border is not a threat to its existence.

[isha]

Uh ok... Scrap my earlier post. Call each other names. And aspersions.. don't forget to cast freely forth aspersions

[PureIsle]

Uh ok... Scrap my earlier post. Call each other names. And aspersions.. don't forget to cast freely forth aspersions

To what names are you referring?
What aspersions?

[isha]

I remarked a day or so ago that he could stop saying you are posting nonsense and you have posted today that his view X is nonsense and he is parroting BS and it occurred to me that the posts cancel each other out, and I should not have said anything in the first place. Lesson learned.

[PureIsle]

I remarked a day or so ago that he could stop saying you are posting nonsense and you have posted today that his view X is nonsense and he is parroting BS and it occurred to me that the posts cancel each other out, and I should not have said anything in the first place. Lesson learned.

There is, at least in my world, a huge difference between expressing the opinion that a particular point is nonsense or illogical, and making a generalisation like

Sounds like more of the nonsense you keep posting that has no basis in fact.

[isha]

Maybe. Maybe not. But the difference is not enormous (in my opinion). Anyway I'm gonna leave yiz to figure it out yerselves.

[Setanta]

Ukraine has already won. We're just waiting for Russia to accept that it's lost and to stop wasting yet more men and money on the pointless vanity project of one man.

And the events of the last nearly 500 days have shown that Russian won't use nukes, even when its existence is threatened - that's turned out to be just one more bluff.

I see that Prigozhin (or someone working on his behalf) is now putting up posters in Belgorod and elsewhere indicating that he's a "real" leader, who doesn't hide away in a bunker ... Methinks there's a change in leadership coming soon to everyone's favourite Kremlin. Prigozhin is a despicable, brutal butcher and an unapologetic criminal, but I think he's also a cute hoor and knows how and when to change direction. Given the content of his recent interview, it wouldn't surprise me in the least to learn in due course that he's come to some "back channel" arrangement with the Ukrainians to be the kind of Russian leader they feel they can negotiate with.

Imo prigozhin has been turned/is collaboration with CIA/Ukraine secret services.....he was within range of Ukraine artillery with weeks and weeks and no attempt was even made on him....it's an open secret he met with outside intel services in Africa a few weeks ago and openly speculated in gave up russian positions on flanks of bakhmut to allow for complete capture(and bonus that ensued from Kremlin)....which also calls into question the 'sucess" Ukraine has had in recent weeks tbh


Hints of Jim Craig Belfast uda off that lad

[PureIsle]

Imo prigozhin has been turned/is collaboration with CIA/Ukraine secret services.....he was within range of Ukraine artillery with weeks and weeks and no attempt was even made on him....it's an open secret he met with outside intel services in Africa a few weeks ago and openly speculated in gave up russian positions on flanks of bakhmut to allow for complete capture(and bonus that ensued from Kremlin)....which also calls into question the 'sucess" Ukraine has had in recent weeks tbh


Hints of Jim Craig Belfast uda off that lad

Considering all that he has said publicly - most of it negative to RF - definitely causes one to wonder what is going on.

If the RF wanted him out they could easily have done so as he is in the battle zone most of the time apparently. That there has not even been a public censure makes me wonder even more.
Is he part of a psyops? or maybe as you posted working for the other side?

Hard to know these days as one cannot believe anything issuing from either side.

[Setanta]

Considering all that he has said publicly - most of it negative to RF - definitely causes one to wonder what is going on.

If the RF wanted him out they could easily have done so as he is in the battle zone most of the time apparently. That there has not even been a public censure makes me wonder even more.
Is he part of a psyops? or maybe as you posted working for the other side?

Hard to know these days as one cannot believe anything issuing from either side.

The notion Russia deosnt allow critism/relative free speech to opposition is of course nonsense,usually brought to you by right wing euro elements who love free speech so much,they dispise likes of Clare Daly/Sabrina Higgins for suggesting peace talks.....it's nonsense propaganda


you don't have to search too hard in Russia to find relatively high profile dissenting voices/analysis critical of the conduct of the war



But the analysis that prigozhin is turned/plays both sides is an interesting one ......the suggestion that he & wagner was allowed by CIA/Ukraine secret services to take bakhmut,but to compromised by giving up 'success' on flanks in exchange to withdraw from combat operations before this counter offensive and Wagner be allowed to continue it's "work" in Africa (curious silence from France/Ireland here 🫣) is the most credible IMO

[PureIsle]

The notion Russia deosnt allow critism/relative free speech to opposition is of course nonsense,usually brought to you by right wing euro elements who love free speech so much,they dispise likes of Clare Daly/Sabrina Higgins for suggesting peace talks.....it's nonsense propaganda


you don't have to search too hard in Russia to find relatively high profile dissenting voices/analysis critical of the conduct of the war

I was not implying there were no opposition voices in Russia.
Denigration of the military is an offence in Russia, and to have it come from within the military and it not be stopped and the one responsible removed is unusual to say the least.

But the analysis that prigozhin is turned/plays both sides is an interesting one ......the suggestion that he & wagner was allowed by CIA/Ukraine secret services to take bakhmut,but to compromised by giving up 'success' on flanks in exchange to withdraw from combat operations before this counter offensive and Wagner be allowed to continue it's "work" in Africa (curious silence from France/Ireland here 🫣) is the most credible IMO

If he was turned he would be unlikely to put himself in a position to be removed (with good cause according to Russian law).
I really don't know how all that would work unless all he did had Russian approval.

[PureIsle]

Apparently a small force of Wagner troops have moved into the Belgorod region along with some RF military forces with the intention to use the Wagner forces to storm the positions from which Ukraine is shelling the Belgorod region, and set up a 'buffer' zone with the RF military holding ground Wagner gains.
This could develop into a larger move for RF to take a big area in the north, eventually joining up with the RF forces to the SE of Belgorod. This would protect the Russian border in the north of Ukraine.

It should be interesting, over the next month, to see if the RF forces have success in this area.
It seems to me that they have been forced, by the Ukrainian shelling of Belgorod region, to do this, so maybe they do not wish to allocate sufficient forces to the area in case of a large counter-offensive in the southern area.

The Wagner forces moving into the area are rather small, as the main force is resting and re-equipping and probably building force to replenish the large numbers lost in Bakhmut.

This conflict is not over by a long shot.
Given the recent information from both sides of the conflict the only thing that might call a halt is the capitulation of the Ukrainian forces. But IMO that would only be the end of the present conflict. There would be a lot to be done internally, to achieve the RF goals.
Anyway that is getting into pure speculation ....... we wait and see ... while thousands die ....

[CelticRambler]

Apparently a small force of Wagner troops have moved into the Belgorod region along with some RF military forces with the intention to use the Wagner forces to storm the positions from which Ukraine is shelling the Belgorod region, and set up a 'buffer' zone with the RF military holding ground Wagner gains.

Ehhh, d'you mean the positions from which Russia is shelling the Belgorod region?

The Urkaine-aligned Russian forces have already stated their intention to create a buffer zone - on the Russian side of the border - to stop attacks on Ukraine being launched from the adjacent Russian republics. The response by the Kremlin, as we've seen, has been to evacuate Russian civilians from their homes and bomb the bejayzus out of the fourth biggest Russian town in the Russian republic of Belgorod (too bad if some Russian civilians get killed because they hung around after the evacuation buses left).

But what's more relevant is that Prigozhin appears to have made a unilateral decision to deploy his men to Belgorod because (as he sees it) the RF/Ministry of Defence is incapable of defending Russian territory. That's a domestic power play, set against the back-drop of the squabbling between Wagner and the Chechens, with the Kremlin chasing their tail wondering where they should move their troops, and the Ukrainians dropping their shiny new Storm Shadow missiles every marshalling yard along the route.

Given the recent information from both sides of the conflict the only thing that might call a halt is the capitulation of the Ukrainian forces.

Again, surely you mean the capitulation of the Russian forces? They're the ones in the wrong place, definitely now at the wrong time, and suffering the thousands of casulaties you seem so worried about.

[CelticRambler]

It should be interesting, over the next month, to see if the RF forces have success in this area.

Not sure how successful things are going to be for the RF forces over the next month when they ended this week with POWs being captured by three different factions, two of them Russian.

The Ukrainians are back in Bakhmut, the Free Russia forces have rendered 200km² of Belgorod unstable (with drunk-and-disordely Russian refugees causing havoc in Russia), and Prigozhin and Kadryov continue to argue over which of them is the Hardest Man while the Happy Grandpa stays hidden in his bunker.

As someone elsewhere put it: if Russia's suffering this much chaos and dysfunction while the Ukrainians are still only talking about their counteroffensive, what hope do they have of resisting an actual assault in earnest?

[PureIsle]

@CelticRambler

The Urkaine-aligned Russian forces

It seems you are referring to some Russian neo-Nazis who fled Russia to avoid the law, and then joined Ukraine to fight the Russian forces.
Else I am sure you can provide their Russian military designation - company name/number.

Of course as you have previously posted the Ukrainians have already won.
Maybe you should contact the RF and let them know they have been defeated and their nuclear capability is useless.
That might help save a few thousand lives.

Not sure how successful things are going to be for the RF forces over the next month when they ended this week with POWs being captured by three different factions, two of them Russian.

Really a 'LoL' ?
That is what this means to you?
This time it is 'Russian factions' - more, or maybe the same neo-Nazis?

I am still waiting for an explanation from you on how you perceive Ukraine winning this conflict against a nuclear power.
(and what 'winning' means for Ukraine these days as it seems to be different for different Ukrainians)

If you could address those last two points it would be useful.
Maybe try to do so as a separate post.

[CelticRambler]

I am still waiting for an explanation from you on how you perceive Ukraine winning this conflict against a nuclear power.
(and what 'winning' means for Ukraine these days as it seems to be different for different Ukrainians)

It's not for me to define what you see as winning. I'm happy to accept Zelensky's definition: Russia to GTFO of Ukraine - all of it, as recognised by the international community - and to pay reparations for all the damage they've inflicted. What more comes after that will be a bonus.

Russian being a "nuclear power" is irrelevant - we know now that that counts for nothing. They've threatened to nuke the rest of the world several times over, but every one of their red lines has been crossed and all they've done is (like you) cry "Neo Nazis!" then get back to their looting and general thuggery.