Anyone still glued to this?

[PureIsle]

Have you heard of Sarah Cirillo, Celtic?



Cirillo is an actual official spokesperson for the Territorial Defence Forces in Ukraine. The Territorial Defence Forces are the military reserve component of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

This is Sarah. I am blocked on X by Sarah so I can not link to their own posts. I don't know what manner of poster this person is - I'm just using the video. There are rabid warmongers on both sides of this war. I dislike ALL OF THEM. ALL.

It appears that "Sarah" has been relieved of duty pending results of an investigation.

[knownunknown]

Thanks for the head's up ... I was unaware that the BBC is one of the "Russia-approved sources".


As I posted even Stoltenberg admitted that Ru promised not to invade if NATO ceased its expansion.
Why you refuse to acknowledge this is beyond comprehension.


I invite you to prove this statement by posting a link to a video where he says this. I have not seen, heard or read any such statement from Putin so your link will be an education for me and no doubt a lot of others too.

Wasting your time here , I’ve posted about it numerous times citing facts, news reports, talks of red lines long before 2014. No getting passed this propaganda stuck in the minds of some about Russian imperialist expansion.

NATO had every opportunity to relieve the tensions before the invasion by agreeing to never allow Ukraine to join while also demilitarising the borders.
Some on here will say, “but who cares, Russia is the invader!”. Yes but that’s exactly what Kennedy promised to do to Cuba during the missile crisis. It was a threat and he didn’t expect Krushchev to call his bluff on, and he didn’t.

But Zelenskyy has called Putin’s bluff, cornering Putin into acting, invading- following through with his word. Talks of Russia imperialist expansion show how gullible some people are and will repeat any mantra spat at them by the media, it just doesn’t add up in reality and is not supported by facts.

Clear red lines have been set out for decades and with NATO now on Moscow’s doorstep Putin had 2 choices, follow through with his threats he has been making for decades or lose face in front of his adoring public.

Don’t just take my word for this, of course, I have cited dozens of historical records in this thread but this man has been cited more than any scholar alive and is considered one of the world’s smartest men.

[Question] Putin’s invasion of Ukraine has clearly hit the buffers, but as is the case with any war, there is dishonesty, propaganda and lies flying left and right from all sides involved. On some occasions, there is also outright madness in the thinking of some commentators which, unfortunately enough, passes itself off as analytical discourse worth publishing in so-called world leading opinion pages. “Russia must lose this war and demilitarize” argued the authors of a recent piece that appeared in Project Syndicate. In addition, they claim that the West does not want to see Russia defeated. And they cite you as one of those who is somehow naïve enough to believe in the idea that the West bears responsibility for creating the conditions provoking Russia’s attack on Ukraine. Your comments and reaction to this piece of “analysis” on the ongoing war in Ukraine, which I presume may in fact be widely shared not only by Ukrainians but also by many others in Eastern Europe and the Baltic states, not to mention the United States?

[Answer]There’s not much point wasting time on “outright madness” — which, in this case, also calls for devastation of Ukraine and great damage far beyond.

But it’s not complete madness. They’re right about me, though they might add that I share the company of almost all historians and a wide range of prominent policy intellectuals since the ‘90s, among them leading hawks, as well as the top echelon of the diplomatic corps who know anything about Russia, from George Kennan and Reagan’s Ambassador to Russia Jack Matlock, to Bush II’s hawkish defense secretary Robert Gates, to the current head of the CIA, and an impressive list of others. The list in fact includes any literate person capable of reviewing the very clear historical and diplomatic record with an open mind.

-Noam Chomsky. https://truthout.org/articles/chomsky-a ... r-turns-1/

Those who want to ignore the history are free to do so, at the cost of failure to understand what is happening now, and what the prospects are for preventing “much worse”-Chomsky

Against the advice of many of his advisers and of the military he had decided to give Khrushchev more time. ‘We don’t want to push him into a precipitous action-give him time to consider. I don’t want to push him into a corner from which he cannot escape.’-RFK

https://responsiblestatecraft.org/2022/ ... 20missiles.

[kadman]

[Deleted]

So I see war mongering scumbag Zelensky was back in the USA demanding billions more and them to get involved with nukes.

[Del.Monte]

So I see war mongering scumbag Zelensky was back in the USA demanding billions more and them to get involved with nukes.

Oh please!! I'm no fan of the Ukrainian leader but this sort of crap looks like it was posted straight from Orwell Road.

[95438756]

The Russians are beginning to look like the Villains in a James Bond movie with the attrition they are suffering:
Putin makes the likes of Dr No and others more and more competent.


https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-66888101

[PureIsle]

The Russians are beginning to look like the Villains in a James Bond movie with the attrition they are suffering:
Putin makes the likes of Dr No and others more and more competent.


https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-66888101

Is there any reliable report which compares the attrition of both sides, and maybe breaks out the number of people lost under country of origin, as well as the machinery lost?

[CelticRambler]

Is there any reliable report which compares the attrition of both sides, and maybe breaks out the number of people lost under country of origin, as well as the machinery lost?

There's none for combatant or civilian losses, but Oryx is considered unimpeachable for equipment losses:

On the Russian side: https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/a ... pment.html
On the Ukrainian side: https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/a ... inian.html

[isha]

The TDF have suspended Cirillo. Good blooming decision. He was sounding absolutely demented.

[kadman]

There's none for combatant or civilian losses, but Oryx is considered unimpeachable for equipment losses:

On the Russian side: https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/a ... pment.html
On the Ukrainian side: https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/a ... inian.html

I seem to recall coming across something recently that claimed that that sites reporting was biased in Ukraines favour. If thats the case its like I said before, we just dont know where to go for the truth.

I must check back and see where it was posted if I can....

[Setanta]

We can only hope!

Meanwhile Zelensky has further troubles at home

Their just such hypocrites,they fly in/out of Kiev for photo ops,but took 50 years for an irish taoiseach to attend a bloody Sunday commeration....they (rightly) demand and support Russia be held account to the Hague.....but ignore and offer near zero critique on British introducing laws to cover up war crimes in Ireland


The glaring hypocrisy is just sickening,not a single media outlet here holds them to account



Zelensky won't ever face domestic troubles,while his country is in such a high profile,intense war.....bit like the Viet Cong,people will tend to support those seeking to free them

[CelticRambler]

I seem to recall coming across something recently that claimed that that sites reporting was biased in Ukraines favour. If thats the case its like I said before, we just dont know where to go for the truth.

I must check back and see where it was posted if I can....

There is probably an inherent bias (in Ukraine's favour) because the amount of factual photographic and video footage coming from the warzone is produced by independent and Ukrainian sources. The Russians produce reams of fake footage, and re-cycle the same footage over and over and over again. So because Oryx only reports equipment losses that can be substantiated in reliable ways, that's inevitably going to lean towards the Ukrainian side.

But the figures given are under-estimates because if claimed hits can't be verified they're not counted, and any apparent over-reporting of Russian losses is probably compensated for by the high-precision, highly destructive Ukrainian artillery: if they've completely destroyed a Russian asset, it won't be counted.

As with the figures for killed-in-action, every time someone, somewhere gets access to a reasonably reliable trove of information, Oryx's figures are found to be "consistent with these reports".

Along the same lines, while the Russian government says that they've only lost a few tens of thousands of soldiers, Russian reporters found out this week that a Russian printing firm has been requested to provide 230000 new "combat veteran" Russian death certificates, up from a few thousand last year. That number is a hell of a lot closer to the Ukrainian-published figures rather than the Russian MoD figures, which lends credence to the other claims not coming from Kremlin approved sources.

Today's approved news: no missiles fell on Sevastopol earlier today, and only one person is missing, not presumed dead from the missiles that didn't fall on any building in the city. And no, that's not sarcasm, that was the official government statement this afternoon ... until video footage showed the Black Sea Fleet headquarters collasping in on itself. I think the official not-dead toll is up to ten now. And definitely no-one important.

[Setanta]

There is probably an inherent bias (in Ukraine's favour) because the amount of factual photographic and video footage coming from the warzone is produced by independent and Ukrainian sources. The Russians produce reams of fake footage, and re-cycle the same footage over and over and over again. So because Oryx only reports equipment losses that can be substantiated in reliable ways, that's inevitably going to lean towards the Ukrainian side.

But the figures given are under-estimates because if claimed hits can't be verified they're not counted, and any apparent over-reporting of Russian losses is probably compensated for by the high-precision, highly destructive Ukrainian artillery: if they've completely destroyed a Russian asset, it won't be counted.

As with the figures for killed-in-action, every time someone, somewhere gets access to a reasonably reliable trove of information, Oryx's figures are found to be "consistent with these reports".

Along the same lines, while the Russian government says that they've only lost a few tens of thousands of soldiers, Russian reporters found out this week that a Russian printing firm has been requested to provide 230000 new "combat veteran" Russian death certificates, up from a few thousand last year. That number is a hell of a lot closer to the Ukrainian-published figures rather than the Russian MoD figures, which lends credence to the other claims not coming from Kremlin approved sources.

Today's approved news: no missiles fell on Sevastopol earlier today, and only one person is missing, not presumed dead from the missiles that didn't fall on any building in the city. And no, that's not sarcasm, that was the official government statement this afternoon ... until video footage showed the Black Sea Fleet headquarters collasping in on itself. I think the official not-dead toll is up to ten now. And definitely no-one important.

Ah but Ukraine are lying,(for obvious reasons),about it's civilian deaths.....entire towns and blocks of flats flattened,and they come out and claim maybe 3 people and a dog killed

They've long stopped claiming death tolls for russian killed,as it become transparently obvious they were either lying or grossly over estimating,depending on ones POV



This war,is at a deadlock,ala iran-iraq war of the 80s,neither side has capacity to have a desisive blow,with front likely to moderately change over next 7 to 10 years,.....the yanks are really being immoral here,happy to let Ukraine bleed russian elite units dry and provide support,but not enough support to decisively break the deadlock,today they turned down requests for long range weapons,and have skirted around nailing down a delivery date for fighter jets with months now...... Ukrainians are clearly brave,but what's going on here with the yanks and their sort of support,but not sufficient is transparent geo-politcal over arch....easy for yanks to stir pot,while completely free of any consequences

[CelticRambler]

Ah but Ukraine are lying,(for obvious reasons),about it's civilian deaths.....entire towns and blocks of flats flattened,and they come out and claim maybe 3 people and a dog killed

Wha' ??? Ukraine gives detailed reports on their civilian deaths every day - age, sex and number, along with the locations of the strikes. And they rarely prevent journalists from reporting directly from targetted areas.

They can't report on the deaths of those who may - or may not - have been in towns entirely flattened by the Russians until they regain control over them, and even then, it's a tough challenge as they have to figure out who was killed and buried on site, who was forcibly deported to Russian, and who might have fled either east or west beforehand.

In any case, it was well signposted last month that the major Russian talking point for the autumn would be the supposed stalemate, and how this is going to end up as a long protracted conflict. As usual, there are plenty of Westerners happy to parrot the Kremlin line, even though the day-to-day action shows that the frontlines are moving week after week, and (in case you hadn't noticed) Ukraine have wiped Wagner off the geo-political map including chasing them down in Africa; and in the last week they've driven the Black Sea Fleet out of Crimea, effectively rendering the 9-year occupation of Sevastopol (and Crimea) unsustainable for Putin in the short to medium term. Hardly a "stalemate" situation, is it?

[PureIsle]

Ah but Ukraine are lying,(for obvious reasons),about it's civilian deaths.....entire towns and blocks of flats flattened,and they come out and claim maybe 3 people and a dog killed

They've long stopped claiming death tolls for russian killed,as it become transparently obvious they were either lying or grossly over estimating,depending on ones POV



This war,is at a deadlock,ala iran-iraq war of the 80s,neither side has capacity to have a desisive blow,with front likely to moderately change over next 7 to 10 years,.....the yanks are really being immoral here,happy to let Ukraine bleed russian elite units dry and provide support,but not enough support to decisively break the deadlock,today they turned down requests for long range weapons,and have skirted around nailing down a delivery date for fighter jets with months now...... Ukrainians are clearly brave,but what's going on here with the yanks and their sort of support,but not sufficient is transparent geo-politcal over arch....easy for yanks to stir pot,while completely free of any consequences

I have long wondered about the support provided to Ukr most particularly why it has been supplied in 'dribs and drabs', when, providing substantial amounts early, before Ukr suffered huge numbers removed from the battlefield, and before Ru had time to build up their forces, would have had a much greater effect on the course of the conflict. The 'west' appears to supply sufficient support to prevent collapse of Ukr. while ensuring there is insufficient support to ensure defeat of Ru.

It might appear to be a deliberate tactic to decimate Ukr. without creating an existential threat to the RF.

[Setanta]

Wha' ??? Ukraine gives detailed reports on their civilian deaths every day - age, sex and number, along with the locations of the strikes. And they rarely prevent journalists from reporting directly from targetted areas.

They can't report on the deaths of those who may - or may not - have been in towns entirely flattened by the Russians until they regain control over them, and even then, it's a tough challenge as they have to figure out who was killed and buried on site, who was forcibly deported to Russian, and who might have fled either east or west beforehand.

In any case, it was well signposted last month that the major Russian talking point for the autumn would be the supposed stalemate, and how this is going to end up as a long protracted conflict. As usual, there are plenty of Westerners happy to parrot the Kremlin line, even though the day-to-day action shows that the frontlines are moving week after week, and (in case you hadn't noticed) Ukraine have wiped Wagner off the geo-political map including chasing them down in Africa; and in the last week they've driven the Black Sea Fleet out of Crimea, effectively rendering the 9-year occupation of Sevastopol (and Crimea) unsustainable for Putin in the short to medium term. Hardly a "stalemate" situation, is it?

You don't honestly think Ukraine are telling the truth on its civilian deaths,I think what they are claiming and level of devestation brought about by bombing are simply not credible



A military stalemate is when neither side has capacity to significantly change the frontline....it's only in last month Ukraine has been in a position to match russian shelling capacity.....given underfoot conditions,and increased density of scrub on adbandoned tillage ground,I don't think it's credible to believe you will see weekly (or monthly) 50 plus miles changes in frontline.....Russia has militarily reached it's capacity and effectively adbandoned any offensive plans,their defensive capacity is highly limited (and have repeated adbandoned settlements rather than defend em),this war should be over months ago only for the lack of capacity of Ukrainian army to conduct offensive operations effectively without proper support and armnaments...they won't get through the scrub lands next summer unscathed without significant chemical spraying of them to remove them ahead

[kadman]

The furthest thing form the US's mind at the moment is a victory for either Russia or Ukraine, that puts an immediate stop to the US military Industrial Complex's income stream from this war. At the moment its the most lucrative industry for the US's economy, and god forbid that it would cease.
Its motoring along nicely with the US flogging in the weaponry, and the EU eventually gets to pay for it. Its the best payday since the pharmaceutical returns due to the pandemic. Dont stop now.
Zelenksky asked Biden for battle tanks, and if he doesn't get them, then the war is lost. That doesn't sound like a statement from a person who is currently winning

[kadman]

There are now so many 100's of billions flowing to Ukraine its hard to see how they could suddenly shake off the historic reputation of corruption, with such a large pot of cash to dip into .
Vox apparently uses high quality reliable souces, but I dont know whether thats true, or does anybody really know.

https://www.vox.com/2023/9/19/23880364/ ... nskyy-unga

Ukraine is shaking up its defense ministry, removing all six deputy ministers, as President Volodymyr Zelenskyy travels to the United Nations and Washington to shore up support and aid.

The purge comes after Zelenskyy replaced Ukraine’s defense minister Oleksii Reznikov earlier this month. That was a very visible upheaval, arriving in the middle of Kyiv’s ongoing counteroffensive, and came amid ongoing allegations of corruption and financial mismanagement within the military.

[Del.Monte]

The US has learned nothing from the Vietnam war where millions were siphoned off by corrupt generals for battalions that existed only on paper.

[Setanta]

The US has learned nothing from the Vietnam war where millions were siphoned off by corrupt generals for battalions that existed only on paper.

The US army is a scam,I remember seeing a program before about the expenses billed to/by them and it would make BAM blush and the children hospital look.like an exercise in austerity

[CelticRambler]

A military stalemate is when neither side has capacity to significantly change the frontline...

Allow me to refer you to this blog post from a few days ago, which includes the following paragraphs:

In this statement ... we see the powerful metaphor of the ‘stalemate’, suggesting impasse, deadlock, draw, and a prospect at best of years of futile combat. It conveys crisply the idea that neither side has a military route to victory so that the only sane option is to explore instead a diplomatic route to a compromise peace. It is a term regularly used to urge Kyiv and its supporters to accept the situation, however unsatisfactory, and look for an honourable way out.

The term certainly suggests stasis, so that whatever is attempted or even achieved at the front little will change in practice. The comparison used to bring home the idea of stalemate, and the associated presumption of waste and futility, in not usually Vietnam but the First World War. The networks of trenches on the front lines in Ukraine are reminiscent of those on the Western Front after 1914.

A stalemate is used to describe a war without an obvious conclusion, with neither side realistically expecting to gain a vital advantage, although both the First World War and Vietnam were concluded. ... We can’t stop ‘stalemate’ being used to suggest a permanent military deadlock, but we should at least be aware that it is a poor metaphor and leads to a conceptual dead-end.

One of the criticisms of the stalemate rule is that the situation it describes [in chess] should instead be appreciated as the highest stage of Zugzwang. This comes from the German ‘compulsion to move.’ It refers to situations in which a player is forced to make a move which leads to a worse position.

The basic idea, which is something that can be translated into actual war, is to progressively limit your opponent’s options, trap them in frustrating conditions in which they can’t find a way out, encourage them to waste moves and pieces. So even when a game seems to be long and drawn out, with neither enjoying an obvious advantage, it can turn on a series of moves which may not quite achieve an immediate, decisive check mate, but points to an eventual victory.

The last few months have been characterised by Ukraine aggressively controlling and limiting Russia's options - holding Bakhmut so as to tie up troops there, launching simultaneous counter-offensives on several different fronts so that Russian can't redeploy (or rotate) units already committed, targetting Crimea with regular but relatively minor drone attacks to that the Russians had to pull in air defences away from their NATO borders ... and then destroy those systems so that they could go on to target the Black Sea Fleet and force it out of Crimea.

Inflicting continuous heavy casualties with minimal losses on their own side (mainly thanks to drone attacks on poorly trained concripts) is another tactic with a bigger effect than at first glance. Sure, Russian has millions more "disposable troops" than Ukraine - but they still have to be conscripted, and Putin has already scraped the bottom of the poor and desperate rednecks. If he's forced to start mobilising middle-class Muscovites - especially in an election year - then that's a huge win for Ukraine.

And beyond the borders of these two countries, let's say you were running a banana republic somewhere and thinking about your military options. D'you think you'd opt for a shiny new Russian air defence system at a cost of a few billion dollars per unit, knowing that any teenager with a DJI drone could destroy it, or might you be inclined to cosy up to the Ukrainians and ask if they'd be interested in selling some of their combat UAVs? For all the talk about the Military Industrial Complex in the US, don't forget that Russia is a major player in that game. Or at least they were - now their once-considerable revenue from arms exports has dropped to near zero. Every time Ukraine hits one of their ships, or one of their airfields, or a command headquarters 200km behind the front line, or takes out an air defence system plus the site its supposed to be protecting, that's another potential customer of Russia who'll decide to go shopping in China or Turkey or Iran instead.

Right now, the best Russia can do in response to the very definitely not stalemate is to bomb Ukraine's schools, hospitals and shopping centres. And yet still there are people here saying the Russians deserved security guarantees?

[CelticRambler]

The US army is a scam,I remember seeing a program before about the expenses billed to/by them and it would make BAM blush and the children hospital look.like an exercise in austerity

Oh, well at least we're agreed on that point.

I heard it said once that the US is actually the most socialist of all Western Nations, but they disguise it by funnelling all the money through their over-sized military.

[Setanta]

Allow me to refer you to this blog post from a few days ago, which includes the following paragraphs:



The last few months have been characterised by Ukraine aggressively controlling and limiting Russia's options - holding Bakhmut so as to tie up troops there, launching simultaneous counter-offensives on several different fronts so that Russian can't redeploy (or rotate) units already committed, targetting Crimea with regular but relatively minor drone attacks to that the Russians had to pull in air defences away from their NATO borders ... and then destroy those systems so that they could go on to target the Black Sea Fleet and force it out of Crimea.

Inflicting continuous heavy casualties with minimal losses on their own side (mainly thanks to drone attacks on poorly trained concripts) is another tactic with a bigger effect than at first glance. Sure, Russian has millions more "disposable troops" than Ukraine - but they still have to be conscripted, and Putin has already scraped the bottom of the poor and desperate rednecks. If he's forced to start mobilising middle-class Muscovites - especially in an election year - then that's a huge win for Ukraine.

And beyond the borders of these two countries, let's say you were running a banana republic somewhere and thinking about your military options. D'you think you'd opt for a shiny new Russian air defence system at a cost of a few billion dollars per unit, knowing that any teenager with a DJI drone could destroy it, or might you be inclined to cosy up to the Ukrainians and ask if they'd be interested in selling some of their combat UAVs? For all the talk about the Military Industrial Complex in the US, don't forget that Russia is a major player in that game. Or at least they were - now their once-considerable revenue from arms exports has dropped to near zero. Every time Ukraine hits one of their ships, or one of their airfields, or a command headquarters 200km behind the front line, or takes out an air defence system plus the site its supposed to be protecting, that's another potential customer of Russia who'll decide to go shopping in China or Turkey or Iran instead.

Right now, the best Russia can do in response to the very definitely not stalemate is to bomb Ukraine's schools, hospitals and shopping centres. And yet still there are people here saying the Russians deserved security guarantees?

Ukraine scraficed thousands of its troops in bakhmut in exchange for the scrafice of russian criminals,sprung out for Wagner like modern era black and tans... understandable why,but it was a victory (of sorts) that deosnt stand up well in long term viewership imo

I have no issue standing over assessment that militarily this war is effective stalemate (likely since the rout at Kherson last year)....Ukraine is in a position with weeks now to press home an advantage and likely make the sea of avoz, decimating russian forces and ending in all but name occupation of Crimea,but clearly lack the firepower and logistics to move troops and equipment to the front line efficiency (what exactly are yanks training em in,it's their best skill)....russian line was in a state of open collaspe (and rotating troops along front not to/from it) and retreating with minimal resistance from any advance.....

Deos anyone honestly expect em to make it to sea of avoz before Xmas now,or Russia not to landmine/defence ditch every mile of it for the winter??

[PureIsle]

The Ukr offensive is now ongoing for 3.75 months.
In that time Ukr has recovered less than 0.25% of the territory it is intent on taking back.
During that time they have lost thousands of military personnel as well as huge numbers of military hardware.

That looks like an offensive that is going nowhere.
Is that stalemate? I don't think so.

Depending on what Ukr allies can supply and Ukr mobilisation, there is a possibility of further offensive, but from reports in Western media it seems that the West's well is running dry for Ukr and its mobilisation is scraping the barrel.

On the other side, Ru has absorbed everything Ukr has thrown at it, yes with huge losses of manpower and hardware, but Ru has essentially not given ground.

So can Ru go on the offensive?
That, like Ukr, depends on the Ru manpower and hardware available, and also of course the answer to the question 'do they want to?' at this time.

Nobody knows what Ru intends apparently. Most assessments in the last year from the 'experts' have missed the mark.

To me a stalemate is when neither side has any substantive moves left.
Depending on resources, both sides in this conflict have the possibility to make real headway.
It remains to be seen if either or both sides have run dry of resources, or if one side can gather sufficient resources and deploy them to overcome the other side.

[95438756]

Western Doner Fatigue the article means

BBC News - Ukraine war: How Zelensky is grappling with Western war fatigue
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-66901719