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Anyone still glued to this?

News, geopolitics, impact, consequences etc from the Ukraine Russia conflict
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PureIsle
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Re: Anyone still glued to this?

#701

Post by PureIsle »

Lots of negative comment coming from head of Wagner in the last couple of weeks.
Various statements such as not receiving promised arms supplies, and even accusations about corruption being the cause.
Those are only the main points; there were a lot more.

It certainly casts doubt on the Ru military command, but so far he seems to be the only voice from 'inside'. Lots of commentators put a lot of credence in what he has to say.
If his statements are factual then Ru military position could be in for a difficult time when UA actually attacks in force.
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Re: Anyone still glued to this?

#702

Post by isha »

Huge explosion recently at ammunition dept in Khmelnitsky Ukraine

Thinking out loud, and trying to be occasionally less wrong...
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Re: Anyone still glued to this?

#703

Post by CelticRambler »

I think the Russians allegedly shooting down four of their own aircraft today is of far more interest.

And the general panic on Russian social media over rather too many videos circulating of Russian soldiers running the wrong way.

And the Ukrainians taking control of more territory in three days than Wagner/Russia has taken in three months.

And, twenty-four hours after the British Defense Minister says that UK might have sent some long-range missiles, the Ukrainians start hitting targets far further inside Russian-held territory than before (and hitting them with a lot more precision than the Russians).

One could almost say there's a change in the weather ... :geek:
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Re: Anyone still glued to this?

#704

Post by Del.Monte »

And what about the British government's intent on further reducing their armed forces? One would have to wonder have the Russians completely infiltrated the MOD and Houses of Parliament. There are a lot of people in very high positions in the UK who should be tried for treason. If Prince William eventually succeeds to the throne Wagner or Group 4 will have to carry out the ceremonial duties. :roll:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/20 ... raine-war/
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Re: Anyone still glued to this?

#705

Post by PureIsle »

It appears that at least one of Prigozhin's statements about the weakness of the Ru troops to South West of Bakhmut was true because UA is reported to taken back some territory in this area.

Sky News' expert appears to think this RU 'withdrawal' to better defensive positions is due to Russia moving troops to some other area/s on the defensive line - possibly where they expect a big UA push.

The other big news is the loss of 4 RU aircraft in Russian territory. The same expert reckons that this is due to UA moving considerable air defences to positions close to the Russian border in the North of Ukraine.

It would be good to see the Ukrainian shells hitting military targets, but still there are daily reports of shells hitting civilian areas in various city centres with no military targets even close. If they are short of ammunition why do this? It cannot help militarily.

As for reports of soldiers running away .... we have long heard of this about both sides, so take your pick as to veracity of either claim.

Ukraine is using the latest in long range weapons from the UK ... recovered parts apparently confirm this.
Presumably they are accurate, but I question whether they are more accurate than similar weapons of the Russian military.

Ukrainian videos show a huge explosion in far west UA due to a strike by RU ....... apparently a large weapons dump was hit. A few more hits like that and UA will find they are short of shells for an offensive should they ever decide to begin their much touted 'Spring Offensive'

In truth there is just too much propaganda from both sides for most of us to be able to make any clear judgements of the situation in the field.
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Re: Anyone still glued to this?

#706

Post by PureIsle »

I came across a very concerning tidbit today and I quote:-
A clear spike in gamma radiation was detected in Khmelnitsky on or about May 12th, with emission continuing to rise the following day and remaining at the elevated level thereafter.

Considering how little gamma radiation comes from depleted uranium, this clear spike in gamma radiation in Khmelnitsky indicates that there was very large stockpile of the DU munitions that was destroyed, raising the uranium dust into the air.
This is said to indicate that DU munitions from the UK were possibly stored in this location causing the spike in radiation when destroyed.
Also ...
By comparison, the towns of Ternopol, Khmilnik, and Novaya Ushitsa remained at their apparent regular, base levels. This indicates that the Khmelnitsky anomaly is indeed a spike and corroborates the claim that the stockpile in Khmelnitsky contained DU munitions.
This is very concerning if this information is correct.
I do not know the exact locations of the towns mentioned.
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Re: Anyone still glued to this?

#707

Post by CelticRambler »

PureIsle wrote: Sun May 14, 2023 8:13 pm This is very concerning if this information is correct.
Given that the source of this information and analysis is a notoriously pro-Russian blogger, I think it's reasonable to assume that it is not correct.

Kinda like the accounts of Ukraine hitting "civilian targets" even though those doing the reporting are completely incapable of providing independent confirmation.

Regardless of whether or not some stories are produced by one side or the other for propaganda purposes, we're well past the stage now of knowing that the vast majority of information put out by the Russian outlets, and amplified and recirculated by their social media fanboys is just plain wrong. Sometimes deliberate lies, sometimes wishful thinking, mostly just plain stupid.
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Re: Anyone still glued to this?

#708

Post by CelticRambler »

And whaddyaknow, it was a former Soviet ammunition dump, still reported to have contained a considerable amount of material as recently as 2011.

On the balance of probabilities, and given the great care the Ukranians are taking to protect their HIMARS systems, I'd say it's highly unlikely that they chose to park a massive quantity of usuable ammunition in one of the sites that would undoubtedly have a big red pin in it on the old Soviet maps the Russians are still using.

But hey, why let common sense get in the way of a good pro-Russian conspiracy theory. :P
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Re: Anyone still glued to this?

#709

Post by PureIsle »

CelticRambler wrote: Sun May 14, 2023 10:13 pm Given that the source of this information and analysis is a notoriously pro-Russian blogger, I think it's reasonable to assume that it is not correct.
Make whatever assumptions you wish. Yours are no more acceptable than anyone else's.
Kinda like the accounts of Ukraine hitting "civilian targets" even though those doing the reporting are completely incapable of providing independent confirmation.
I guess video of the shells falling and lots of video of the aftermath of many such incidents is just not good enough.
Maybe you also deny the huge number of civilians killed in the area over the past years from such shelling?
Regardless of whether or not some stories are produced by one side or the other for propaganda purposes, we're well past the stage now of knowing that the vast majority of information put out by the Russian outlets, and amplified and recirculated by their social media fanboys is just plain wrong. Sometimes deliberate lies, sometimes wishful thinking, mostly just plain stupid.
Regardless what social media fanboys might be posting, the vast majority of what the Russian MOD publishes is factual ........ they appear to work mostly by omission rather than lies.
It is a pity the Ukrainians lie so much that even their factual utterances are not believed.
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PureIsle
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Re: Anyone still glued to this?

#710

Post by PureIsle »

CelticRambler wrote: Sun May 14, 2023 10:21 pm And whaddyaknow, it was a former Soviet ammunition dump, still reported to have contained a considerable amount of material as recently as 2011.

On the balance of probabilities, and given the great care the Ukranians are taking to protect their HIMARS systems, I'd say it's highly unlikely that they chose to park a massive quantity of usuable ammunition in one of the sites that would undoubtedly have a big red pin in it on the old Soviet maps the Russians are still using.

But hey, why let common sense get in the way of a good pro-Russian conspiracy theory. :P
Common sense might imply that a site purposefully built in the Soviet era would be the most suitable place to store munitions, particularly considering how well the Soviets built such sites.
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Re: Anyone still glued to this?

#711

Post by CelticRambler »

PureIsle wrote: Mon May 15, 2023 2:02 amI guess video of the shells falling and lots of video of the aftermath of many such incidents is just not good enough.
Maybe you also deny the huge number of civilians killed in the area over the past years from such shelling?
Which civilians? Which area?

I take it you're not referring to the Russians bombing a theatre full of children in Mariupol? Or to the videos showing Russian soliders indiscriminately shooting at civilians in Bucha? So what "huge number of civilians" are you referring to - any concrete examples?
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Re: Anyone still glued to this?

#712

Post by PureIsle »

CelticRambler wrote: Mon May 15, 2023 6:25 am Which civilians? Which area?
I am, as you well know, referring to the bombing of Eastern cities in Donbass by the Ukrainians over the last nine years or so, which continues to the present day.
I take it you're not referring to the Russians bombing a theatre full of children in Mariupol? Or to the videos showing Russian soliders indiscriminately shooting at civilians in Bucha? So what "huge number of civilians" are you referring to - any concrete examples?
I have not seen a video of Russian soldiers indiscriminately shooting civilians in Bucha, so I would be interested in viewing such if you have a link.
I have seen a video showing the alleged aftermath with bodies at the side of the road, taken some days after the Russian army left the area.

On the other hand I have seen videos of the results of various bombings in the likes of Donetsk city centre with people still bleeding and the remains of vehicles on fire as well as craters in the street etc. etc..
It would be surprising to me if you are not aware of the some 14,000 killed in such bombings since 2014. That number is increasing daily.
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Re: Anyone still glued to this?

#713

Post by CelticRambler »

PureIsle wrote: Mon May 15, 2023 11:49 am I am, as you well know, referring to the bombing of Eastern cities in Donbass by the Ukrainians over the last nine years or so, which continues to the present day.
...
It would be surprising to me if you are not aware of the some 14,000 killed in such bombings since 2014. That number is increasing daily.
Oh that. I am well aware of the claim that Ukraine has killed 14000 people in the Donbass since the Russians invaded in 2014. I am also well aware of the fact that the claim has been comprehensively debunked over and over and over again. For a brief period of time, the Russians even allowed international observers in to validate their claim, and the best they could manage was to confirm tens of civilian deaths, not tens of thousands.
PureIsle wrote: Mon May 15, 2023 11:49 amI have not seen a video of Russian soldiers indiscriminately shooting civilians in Bucha, so I would be interested in viewing such if you have a link.
I have seen a video showing the alleged aftermath with bodies at the side of the road, taken some days after the Russian army left the area.

On the other hand I have seen videos of the results of various bombings in the likes of Donetsk city centre with people still bleeding and the remains of vehicles on fire as well as craters in the street etc. etc.
The Bucha videos (and others) are easy to find if you're really interested, but it seems like you have a preference for getting your information from overtly pro-Russian sources, and are quite happy to believe that videos of "Donetsk" were recorded in Donetsk, even though they're generally recycled footage from Afghanistan, Syria, Iran, Iraq, Georgia, Chechnya ... in fact, just about anywhere other than Donetsk.
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Re: Anyone still glued to this?

#714

Post by PureIsle »

CelticRambler wrote: Mon May 15, 2023 1:02 pm Oh that. I am well aware of the claim that Ukraine has killed 14000 people in the Donbass since the Russians invaded in 2014. I am also well aware of the fact that the claim has been comprehensively debunked over and over and over again. For a brief period of time, the Russians even allowed international observers in to validate their claim, and the best they could manage was to confirm tens of civilian deaths, not tens of thousands.



The Bucha videos (and others) are easy to find if you're really interested, but it seems like you have a preference for getting your information from overtly pro-Russian sources, and are quite happy to believe that videos of "Donetsk" were recorded in Donetsk, even though they're generally recycled footage from Afghanistan, Syria, Iran, Iraq, Georgia, Chechnya ... in fact, just about anywhere other than Donetsk.
OK, I see it is pointless trying to have any reasonable discussion with you on this, so I bow out and let you to your own thoughts and convictions.
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Re: Anyone still glued to this?

#715

Post by Setanta »

Bakhmut has fallen....



Russia may be pure wrong,but this is an incredible achievement for a private military company againest the amount of resources ukraine has been given....they are now wanting to continue their march to the sea

Russia making highly credible claims of decimating the patriot system,a pretty massive coup for them,alongside massive destruction of warehouses containing the storm missiles system....looks to me, that they have a spy very very senior within the Ukraine military (or within its US advisors) similar to first days of the war,before they were removed




A bad week for Ukraine,after their initial success in the bakhmut flanks,as it prepares an unenviable task of undertaking an offensive and needing to scale up attacks,while their president tours the world seeking more help and badly in need of positive news to present to delegates
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Re: Anyone still glued to this?

#716

Post by CelticRambler »

Setanta wrote: Sun May 21, 2023 12:48 pm Bakhmut has fallen....



Russia may be pure wrong,but this is an incredible achievement for a private military company againest the amount of resources ukraine has been given....they are now wanting to continue their march to the sea

Russia making highly credible claims of decimating the patriot system,a pretty massive coup for them,alongside massive destruction of warehouses containing the storm missiles system....looks to me, that they have a spy very very senior within the Ukraine military (or within its US advisors) similar to first days of the war,before they were removed




A bad week for Ukraine,after their initial success in the bakhmut flanks,as it prepares an unenviable task of undertaking an offensive and needing to scale up attacks,while their president tours the world seeking more help and badly in need of positive news to present to delegates
Wha' ???

It is more than a year since Bakhmut was first attacked, and as well as a horde of mercenaries, Russia has sent all of its (surviving) elite troops; Ukraine hasn't even sent its reserves and is well-poised to encircle the city if it chooses to do so.

As for the destruction of the Patriot system? Wha' ??? Where are you getting your information from? The Russians lobbed a load of cruise missiles at it after (it seems) the Ukrainians used it to shoot down some missile-carrying Russian aircraft last week; and one vehicle from the multi-vehicle Patriot system suffered minor damage that was fixed within 48 hours, and then went on to shoot down more of Russia's supposedly unkillable supposedly hypersonic missiles in the days since.

Oh, and Ukraine has got the green light to equip themselves with F16 fighter jets, training to be provided by several different countries starting ... well, about now. Zelensky is on an world tour while Putin is holed up somewhere, well out of sight. All-in-all, this has probably been the worst week of the war for Russia.
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Re: Anyone still glued to this?

#717

Post by Del.Monte »

If the pile of rubble that once was a city has indeed fallen it is the very definition of a Pyrrhic victory given the apparent losses on the Russian side not to mention the futility of capturing a wreck.
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Re: Anyone still glued to this?

#718

Post by Setanta »

CelticRambler wrote: Sun May 21, 2023 2:46 pm Wha' ???

It is more than a year since Bakhmut was first attacked, and as well as a horde of mercenaries, Russia has sent all of its (surviving) elite troops; Ukraine hasn't even sent its reserves and is well-poised to encircle the city if it chooses to do so.

As for the destruction of the Patriot system? Wha' ??? Where are you getting your information from? The Russians lobbed a load of cruise missiles at it after (it seems) the Ukrainians used it to shoot down some missile-carrying Russian aircraft last week; and one vehicle from the multi-vehicle Patriot system suffered minor damage that was fixed within 48 hours, and then went on to shoot down more of Russia's supposedly unkillable supposedly hypersonic missiles in the days since.

Oh, and Ukraine has got the green light to equip themselves with F16 fighter jets, training to be provided by several different countries starting ... well, about now. Zelensky is on an world tour while Putin is holed up somewhere, well out of sight. All-in-all, this has probably been the worst week of the war for Russia.
Lad it is a fair achievement,a private military contractor ousting Ukrainian army with the resources that Ukraine thrown at it's defence.....the blackwater group,the US version of Wagner,....they wouldn't been done it.....you can acknowledge their achievements,while disliking what they achieved IMO


I've said Rusia made credible claims to have destroyed one,and given statements by USA and Ukraine,amount to partial acknowledgement


Would have taught the collaspe and massacre around Kherson (and vulhalar mutiny) would have been Russia's worst week so far??
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Re: Anyone still glued to this?

#719

Post by CelticRambler »

Setanta wrote: Sun May 21, 2023 3:58 pm Lad it is a fair achievement,a private military contractor ousting Ukrainian army with the resources that Ukraine thrown at it's defence.....the blackwater group,the US version of Wagner,....they wouldn't been done it.....you can acknowledge their achievements,while disliking what they achieved IMO
That's just it: Ukraine didn't invest very much at all in the grand scheme of things. They prioritised sending troops abroad for more advanced NATO-style training, and more recently in-country training on all that new weaponry. They assigned certain groups to "defend" Bakhmut in such a way as to inflict maximum damage on the Russians in all their incarnations. The success of that approach is confirmed by very public dispute between the (illegal-in-Russia) PMCs, i.e. Wagner/Prigozhin, and the regular Russian military. In other countries, that's usually phrased "bordering on civil war".

100000 casualties on the Russian side to take a city the size of Galway? One that they literally bombed and burnt to the ground in the process. That's no great achievement.
Setanta wrote: Sun May 21, 2023 3:58 pm I've said Rusia made credible claims to have destroyed one,and given statements by USA and Ukraine,amount to partial acknowledgement
Russia make "credible claims" to have destroyed Ukraine's equipment every day. They're always proven wrong. Every single time. The only thing that's changed since the start of this war is that in the beginning it'd take a week or so to confirm that the Russians were talking shyte; now the proof tends to come in hours if not minutes. They did not destroy any part of the patriot system; to paraphrase one source, the damage (which may have been caused by falling débris from a destroyed missile) amounted to little more than a burst tyre.
Setanta wrote: Sun May 21, 2023 3:58 pm Would have taught the collaspe and massacre around Kherson (and vulhalar mutiny) would have been Russia's worst week so far??
There was no massacre around Kherson; it was - at least by Russian standards - an orderly retreat, carried out over several weeks when Putin finally accepted that his generals knew what they were talking about when they said the Russian's position on the wrong side of the river was untenable. You could argue that the Vuhledar rout was a Pretty Bad Day, but seeing as the Russians have done the same thing again and again since, in different places, it's obvious that they consider that kind of defeat as par for the course.

But there's more to it than what happens on the battlefield. Two years ago, Vladimir Putin would have been rubbing shoulders and shaking hands with the leaders of the biggest economies in the world, and those that'd like to be think of themselves in the same league. As of this week, Putin has been relegated to the outhouse of history and his place has been taken fairly and squarely by Zelensky. As someone put it earlier today, the G7 has now become the G7+Ukraine, or G8 if you like, sharing the global stage with Brazil, India, China and South Africa. Look at that: there's no R in BRICS any more. That's gotta hurt a lot more than whatever solace Putin can find in seeing a Russian flag flying amongst the smouldering ruins of Bakhmut.
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Re: Anyone still glued to this?

#720

Post by Setanta »

CelticRambler wrote: Sun May 21, 2023 9:36 pm That's just it: Ukraine didn't invest very much at all in the grand scheme of things. They prioritised sending troops abroad for more advanced NATO-style training, and more recently in-country training on all that new weaponry. They assigned certain groups to "defend" Bakhmut in such a way as to inflict maximum damage on the Russians in all their incarnations. The success of that approach is confirmed by very public dispute between the (illegal-in-Russia) PMCs, i.e. Wagner/Prigozhin, and the regular Russian military. In other countries, that's usually phrased "bordering on civil war".

100000 casualties on the Russian side to take a city the size of Galway? One that they literally bombed and burnt to the ground in the process. That's no great achievement.
A private military contractor ousting a formalised state military is unheard of.....they had plenty casualties,but an achievement that will go down in history nonetheless (though Ukraine is claiming to have it near encircled,and mercanries have no legal protection and could potentially face massacre)


Russia make "credible claims" to have destroyed Ukraine's equipment every day. They're always proven wrong. Every single time. The only thing that's changed since the start of this war is that in the beginning it'd take a week or so to confirm that the Russians were talking shyte; now the proof tends to come in hours if not minutes. They did not destroy any part of the patriot system; to paraphrase one source, the damage (which may have been caused by falling débris from a destroyed missile) amounted to little more than a burst tyre.
The yanks and Ukrainian initially claimed to have knocked out 18/18 missiles,but were warning people againest sharing pics of it working online....by evening they admitted it was damaged,following morning was taking 48 hours to repair it....how is this possible,if it achieved the proclaimed 100% success??,to my eyes it makes russian claims around this more credible

There was no massacre around Kherson; it was - at least by Russian standards - an orderly retreat, carried out over several weeks when Putin finally accepted that his generals knew what they were talking about when they said the Russian's position on the wrong side of the river was untenable. You could argue that the Vuhledar rout was a Pretty Bad Day, but seeing as the Russians have done the same thing again and again since, in different places, it's obvious that they consider that kind of defeat as par for the course.
There was a massacre, Ukrainians were openly boasting of it/nearly running out of ammo in killing sweeps of valleys of fleeing troops in all sorts vehicles, on social media,a legal massacre,as russian troops had no legal protection,but a massacre nonetheless (you need not search too hard on social media for videos of this)

I did think the mutiny at vuhledar went v.under reported,but the terrain there was horrendous,talks of entire brigade not returning is an awlful level of attrition
But there's more to it than what happens on the battlefield. Two years ago, Vladimir Putin would have been rubbing shoulders and shaking hands with the leaders of the biggest economies in the world, and those that'd like to be think of themselves in the same league. As of this week, Putin has been relegated to the outhouse of history and his place has been taken fairly and squarely by Zelensky. As someone put it earlier today, the G7 has now become the G7+Ukraine, or G8 if you like, sharing the global stage with Brazil, India, China and South Africa. Look at that: there's no R in BRICS any more. That's gotta hurt a lot more than whatever solace Putin can find in seeing a Russian flag flying amongst the smouldering ruins of Bakhmut.
But zelensky has no good news to go to the G7 with,Russia has decimated several of its weapons stores, particularly of new weapons in week beforehand ..... zelensky would be better served to get his house and internal security in order and root out russian spies within his senior military....G7 or BRICs I don't see it stacks up militaryly to lose so much top level artillery so quickly after getting it,when NATO countries are openly warning of low stocks,and needing to up production levels??

Surely alarm bells must be ringing amongst it's senior military commanders?(I would feel the discovery and destruction of this artillery would be much more severe medium term issue than losing bakhmut)
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Re: Anyone still glued to this?

#721

Post by CelticRambler »

Setanta wrote: Sun May 21, 2023 10:17 pm A private military contractor ousting a formalised state military is unheard of.....they had plenty casualties,but an achievement that will go down in history nonetheless
But they weren't ousted. We've known for months now that Ukraine planned to keep the Russians tied up in Bakhmut until it suited them not to. In practical terms, there isn't any real difference between a state-sponsored PMC and state-funded MoD - except that this particular PMC happens to have had a lot more experience in active warfare than the conscript army that aren't allowed shoot real weapons during their years of compulsory service.

The most remarkable achievement is that Ukraine held Bakhmut against a well-armed, well-resourced enemy without commiting very much of their own valuable resources. Meanwhile, the Russians have pulled their best forces and the equipment they need from other theatres, leaving many weak points along the front line that Ukraine can exploit when they decide the time is right.

Bear in mind that the last month has seen Wagner engaged in fierce fighting day after day to literally take one building at a time; then Ukraine re-take 2, 3, 5 square kilometres in a day. Bakhmut will go down in history as Russia's greatest folly.
Setanta wrote: Sun May 21, 2023 10:17 pmThe yanks and Ukrainian initially claimed to have knocked out 18/18 missiles,but were warning people againest sharing pics of it working online....by evening they admitted it was damaged,following morning was taking 48 hours to repair it....how is this possible,if it achieved the proclaimed 100% success??,to my eyes it makes russian claims around this more credible
It knocked out 18 of 18 cruise missiles; there were another 20 or so drones and other missiles as well as that. That's a hell of a lot of burning metal to be falling out of the sky, so it's only ever a question of time before some of it hits something on the ground. But the individual vehicles that make up a Patriot system are between 10 and 20km apart from each other, so there's no way to target the Patriot system with a single missile. However, for perfectly logical reasons, it is - and has been since Ukraine declared martial law - illegal to share photos or otherwise disclose the location of the country's air defence positions. That is why the people who shared the photos were arrested.

There's a much easier way to judge the credibility of the Russian claims: Ukraine has two Patriot systems. How many were working the following day? Two. So neither of them were destroyed, nor even damaged to the extent that they couldn't be used. Russia's claim is debunked.
Setanta wrote: Sun May 21, 2023 10:17 pmThere was a massacre, Ukrainians were openly boasting of it/nearly running out of ammo in killing sweeps of valleys of fleeing troops in all sorts vehicles ...

I did think the mutiny at vuhledar went v.under reported,but the terrain there was horrendous,talks of entire brigade not returning is an awlful level of attrition
I think you're confusing the retreat from Kherson with the earlier rout at Kharkiv. In any case, what you're describing is the everyday experience for the Ukrainians and the Russians. The Ukrainians are - for the most part - a well-trained army with (paradoxically) a certain respect for human life; the Russians are a horde of incompetent, unwilling volunteers who've been told to run into a hail of gunfire and be killed, otherwise they'll be killed by their own side (or, alternatively, they can kill themselves).

I take it you haven't seen the recent video of a Ukrainian assault group desperately trying to persuade one last Russian soldier to surrender so they didn't have to kill him? Or the other video of the one Russian who did surrender to a drone (after his two comrades killed themselves) and was then targetted by Wagner as the drone led him away? Or what about the group of Russian wives yesterday, asking for news of and compensation for the 500 men taken from their village, of whom only 130 have come back from the frontline?

This whole bloodbath is horrendous, but Ukraine have produced plenty of videos telling the Russians to stay in Russia or they will be killed. For reasons best known to themselves, the Russians seemingly prefer to be killed, and travel thousands of miles at their own expense for the pleasure.
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Re: Anyone still glued to this?

#722

Post by isha »

Ugh I just wonder where anyone thinks they are getting the truth about this whole horrible war.
Thinking out loud, and trying to be occasionally less wrong...
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Re: Anyone still glued to this?

#723

Post by Setanta »

CelticRambler wrote: Mon May 22, 2023 7:46 am But they weren't ousted. We've known for months now that Ukraine planned to keep the Russians tied up in Bakhmut until it suited them not to. In practical terms, there isn't any real difference between a state-sponsored PMC and state-funded MoD - except that this particular PMC happens to have had a lot more experience in active warfare than the conscript army that aren't allowed shoot real weapons during their years of compulsory service.

The most remarkable achievement is that Ukraine held Bakhmut against a well-armed, well-resourced enemy without commiting very much of their own valuable resources. Meanwhile, the Russians have pulled their best forces and the equipment they need from other theatres, leaving many weak points along the front line that Ukraine can exploit when they decide the time is right.

Bear in mind that the last month has seen Wagner engaged in fierce fighting day after day to literally take one building at a time; then Ukraine re-take 2, 3, 5 square kilometres in a day. Bakhmut will go down in history as Russia's greatest folly.



It knocked out 18 of 18 cruise missiles; there were another 20 or so drones and other missiles as well as that. That's a hell of a lot of burning metal to be falling out of the sky, so it's only ever a question of time before some of it hits something on the ground. But the individual vehicles that make up a Patriot system are between 10 and 20km apart from each other, so there's no way to target the Patriot system with a single missile. However, for perfectly logical reasons, it is - and has been since Ukraine declared martial law - illegal to share photos or otherwise disclose the location of the country's air defence positions. That is why the people who shared the photos were arrested.

There's a much easier way to judge the credibility of the Russian claims: Ukraine has two Patriot systems. How many were working the following day? Two. So neither of them were destroyed, nor even damaged to the extent that they couldn't be used. Russia's claim is debunked.



I think you're confusing the retreat from Kherson with the earlier rout at Kharkiv. In any case, what you're describing is the everyday experience for the Ukrainians and the Russians. The Ukrainians are - for the most part - a well-trained army with (paradoxically) a certain respect for human life; the Russians are a horde of incompetent, unwilling volunteers who've been told to run into a hail of gunfire and be killed, otherwise they'll be killed by their own side (or, alternatively, they can kill themselves).

I take it you haven't seen the recent video of a Ukrainian assault group desperately trying to persuade one last Russian soldier to surrender so they didn't have to kill him? Or the other video of the one Russian who did surrender to a drone (after his two comrades killed themselves) and was then targetted by Wagner as the drone led him away? Or what about the group of Russian wives yesterday, asking for news of and compensation for the 500 men taken from their village, of whom only 130 have come back from the frontline?

This whole bloodbath is horrendous, but Ukraine have produced plenty of videos telling the Russians to stay in Russia or they will be killed. For reasons best known to themselves, the Russians seemingly prefer to be killed, and travel thousands of miles at their own expense for the pleasure.
Do you not feel it's a paradox,to proclaim Ukraine as professional army,while Russia and Wagner are incompetent conscripts...when a they have ousted Ukraine from bakhmut??


As I've said,to my eyes russian claims around destruction of patriot system are more credible than Ukraine's....to claim it was taken out by falling debris is farcical excuse making...I've no bother in saying it's up & running again, hopefully successfully hence forth (the US admitted they were out of action for repairs)..... silly explain-aways that an anti aircraft system was taken out,by falling debris is type stuff people reasonably laugh at Russia over



Ukraine are claiming 80 engagements a day with russian forces at present,this level of attrition is unsustainable for either side,they are long overdue a sit-down peace talks
"Celtic jerseys are not for second best, they don't shrink to fit inferior players." - Jock Stein
Setanta
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Re: Anyone still glued to this?

#724

Post by Setanta »

Talks of a Ukraine active middle of the day attack on Belgorod,across the border :shock: :? :? :?
"Celtic jerseys are not for second best, they don't shrink to fit inferior players." - Jock Stein
CelticRambler
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Re: Anyone still glued to this?

#725

Post by CelticRambler »

isha wrote: Mon May 22, 2023 8:42 am Ugh I just wonder where anyone thinks they are getting the truth about this whole horrible war.
For the most part, applying some basic non-knee-jerky scientific thinking helps clarify a lot of the narrative. Resources like accessible satellite imagery help to back up early assertions, e.g. confirming when and where fires have broken out and how long it took to get them under control. And instead of believing nonsense that's been re-tweeted every fortnight for more than a year, look for the incidental accounts and see how they match up. One such are the reports concerning the standard of medical care on the Russian side - it's atrocious. Other than obviously staged videos from the Russian MoD, every other source - Russian and non-Russian - describes an utterly mediaeval state of affairs, from which it's reasonable to infer that the death rate in the killing fields on the Russian side is indeed as high as stated.

Then there are the "prospective studies" where someone suggests something will be done in some way and somesuch other thing will follow as a consequence. All one has to do is wait and see if things play out according to the prediction. Since yesterday, there are two of those situations teetering on the brink of maybe coming to pass - the Ukrainians shooting down yet another one of Russia's most technologically competent fighter jets well outside of their usual range (so that's probably those damn Patriots again, despite being destroyed last week ... :P )

The other is Ukraine's incursion into Russia-proper, Belgogrod region. Some months ago, it was hypothesised that the most effective way for Ukraine to re-take the Donbass was to scoot around the back via Belgogrod, liberating those people from Mother Russia first, and trap the little green men between the Russian border and the multiple defensive lines they've spend so long building in the wrong place. Maginot Line, anyone? Of course it could simply be pro-Ukrainian Russians lending a helping hand. We'll find out soon enough.
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