Anyone still glued to this?

[Setanta]

The alternative narrative says this

Interesting one this......Russia initially claimed it repelled and killed most of the Ukrainian marines.....now,they want it said it never happened

[PureIsle]

Interesting one this......Russia initially claimed it repelled and killed most of the Ukrainian marines.....now,they want it said it never happened

I dunno .... I did not see that initial claim by Ru.
Maybe there were two incursions?
Again, I have no idea.

[PureIsle]

The big news IMO is that Ukr has finally made serious progress in Robotyne. It looks like they have either taken the settlement or probably will do over the next couple of days.
From there they should be able to move further to the next line of defence of Ru.

It is reported that Ukr are piling in many supporting forces into this area, and are also making headway to the East of Robotyne.

It is slow costly (in manpower and machines) progress though.
For their sake I hope they are not creating another 'meat grinder' for their forces, as it looks on the map that Ru might be able to close behind their advance and effectively surround them as they advance.

[PureIsle]

Ukr. claims they landed on Crimera and entered a military base where they killed up to 14 Ru personnel.

No confirmation as yet that I have seen.

[Setanta]

The big news IMO is that Ukr has finally made serious progress in Robotyne. It looks like they have either taken the settlement or probably will do over the next couple of days.
From there they should be able to move further to the next line of defence of Ru.

It is reported that Ukr are piling in many supporting forces into this area, and are also making headway to the East of Robotyne.

It is slow costly (in manpower and machines) progress though.
For their sake I hope they are not creating another 'meat grinder' for their forces, as it looks on the map that Ru might be able to close behind their advance and effectively surround them as they advance.

Interesting video from supposed liberated robotyne.....the number of buildings remaining standing was strangely high

Suggesting that Russia has withdrawn it's counter battery resources to deeper behind lines and conceded that village rather easily


Their advances have been slow,but talks of a minefield with between 3 and. 5 mines per square metre is stuff of insanity,all to be transversed under artillery and sniper fire coming into strong concrete reinforced defence battlements,shows how stupid the NATO doctrine was.......

long term I can't see this war being any big changes,too much surveillance and supply lines for either side,removes the any elements of suprise,while yanks & NATO are happy to sit on hands and encourage this into a perpetual war for next decade

[PureIsle]

Interesting video from supposed liberated robotyne.....the number of buildings remaining standing was strangely high

Suggesting that Russia has withdrawn it's counter battery resources to deeper behind lines and conceded that village rather easily


Their advances have been slow,but talks of a minefield with between 3 and. 5 mines per square metre is stuff of insanity,all to be transversed under artillery and sniper fire coming into strong concrete reinforced defence battlements,shows how stupid the NATO doctrine was.......

long term I can't see this war being any big changes,too much surveillance and supply lines for either side,removes the any elements of suprise,while yanks & NATO are happy to sit on hands and encourage this into a perpetual war for next decade

I dunno about conceding Robotyne easily ... from what I can gather Ru lost a considerable number of forces during the battle and withdrawal.
No doubt Ukr has lost many more than Ru, but it appears that does not concern Ukr at all, as it seems to be usual in this conflict and yet they have not really changed tactics in order to preserve manpower (or hardware).

Ukraine will soon be getting Autumn weather and once that arrives both sides will get bogged down, so I expect Ukr to push as much as they can past Robotyne and try to have some 'gain' before things slow down in Autumn/Winter.

I have the impression that Ukr is more planning for 2024 than any big move before then. It appears that Ru is doing another large 'call up' to the military which will help their cause greatly.
Of course I would not be at all surprised to see Ru do a counter move when Ukr least expects it.
.

[knownunknown]

Came across a weirdly prophetic article from 200.It was a time when France and Germany opposed Ukraine’s membership to NATO and George Bush was the one suggesting it.

“ Russia voiced its opinion on Tuesday, with deputy foreign minister Grigory Karasin warning that the prospect of Ukraine’s NATO membership would create a profound crisis between Kiev and Moscow, with a negative impact on the security of Europe. ”

https://www.euractiv.com/section/securi ... to-summit/

[Del.Monte]

Interesting but hardly prophetic as I could have told you that allowing Ukraine to join NATO would cause problems. What is interesting is that Germany, France etc. were against it with the American's being the driving force and what the USA knows about geopolitics could be written on a small postage stamp.

[kadman]

Interesting but hardly prophetic as I could have told you that allowing Ukraine to join NATO would cause problems. What is interesting is that Germany, France etc. were against it with the American's being the driving force and what the USA knows about geopolitics could be written on a small postage stamp.

..........with a large felt marker.

[95438756]

Good on the BBC website didn't think they'd post thus
BBC News - Ukraine's defence minister Oleksii Reznikov dismissed
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-66702893

[Setanta]

Ukraine now matches Russia on artillery front for first time in the war,which is bad news for Russia as it relies heavily upon artillery power &suppression ....

Ukraine has had several breakthroughs of the second line of defence and some of the first horrors of russian occupation are becoming known,evil evil fückers

[95438756]

Not forgetting Ukraine's sanctification / veneration/ canonization of weapons like challenger 2 and leopard. And the holy F16

No difference to the actual battlefield at all.this idolization Looks silly now.

[PureIsle]

Ukraine now matches Russia on artillery front for first time in the war,which is bad news for Russia as it relies heavily upon artillery power &suppression ....

I do wonder how it can match Ru. on the artillery front for any period of time, knowing that Ukr is short of artillery pieces and ammunition for those they have. Can you explain your reasoning on this?

Ukraine has had several breakthroughs of the second line of defence and some of the first horrors of russian occupation are becoming known,evil evil fückers

I am aware that Ukr broke through at Robotyne which was the first line of defence after the minefields, so maybe you can name the several places where Ukr has broken through the second line of Ru defence.
Apparently I have missed some important information.

[PureIsle]

An interesting graphic in the Washington Post showing the lack of effect of the Ukr counter-offensive.
If anything it would appear that Ru has gained a little ground. This is possibly due to the small gains Ru has made in the North of Ukraine.
I have no idea how accurate this is.

[PureIsle]

I was aware that the death toll from this conflict is huge, but this level of loss is horrifying. This piece of info was posted elsewhere today.
I have not confirmed its accuracy, but the source is generally reliable, if heavily biased.

For every 100 people mobilized into the Armed Forces of Ukraine this time last year, less than 20 remain - Poltava (central Ukraine) military enlistment office.

[PureIsle]

The U.S. Army War College* has released a brief overview of "Lessons from the War in Ukraine".

In particular, it has a forecast of US casualties and mobilization reserves in a conflict of this level.

It is difficult to take it all in at once, but obviously the manpower losses in Ukraine are absolutely huge in comparison to some previous US conflicts.


Thesis:
- military doctors project a [KIA and WIA] casualty rate for the US Armed Forces of 3,600\day.
- The combat replenishment rate is 25% or 800 troops per day.
- In 20 years of combat in Iraq and Afghanistan, the U.S. has lost about 50,000 people.
In a conflict of the Ukrainian level, the U.S. would suffer such losses in 2 weeks.
- The recruitment shortage is a major problem.
- every soldier not recruited today is a strategic mobility asset [IRR or reservists] that the US will not have in 2031
- IRR was 700K in 1973, 450K in 1994, now at 76K.
- These numbers will not make up for the projected losses.

Why don't they stop it?
Do they want huge death rates?

[PureIsle]

A situation report from a Ru general:-

General Gurulev about Problems and Lies

I will briefly report on the situation at the front without reference to specific directions. The information is obtained from primary sources, systematised, and the following conclusions are made:

The enemy, having specifically attacked our forces at the beginning of their counteroffensive, has changed the tactics of combat operations. They no longer go forward in large forces, they are obviously forbidden to throw heavy equipment en masse.

Today they have switched to the tactic of squeezing, they are using cluster shells en masse, they are inflicting fire damage on the strongholds of our units, assault groups, they have a lot of ammunition, they are trying to burn absolutely everything. Yes, this situation is forcing our troops to withdraw deep. Not far, but in some places we have lost up to 10 km of territory in depth. The enemy has somewhere taken our defence positions, which are very well equipped with our own hands.

After the deflection of the defence line, the enemy created conditions that made it impossible for our helicopters to use anti-tank missiles, due to the deflection of the line, they became accessible to enemy MANPADS. The efficiency of our helicopters has decreased.

The enemy has learned to work with our very well-made minefields. They competently clear them of mines, inflicting artillery fire and using trawls.

Our artillery has improved the quality of counterbattery warfare. There are results, but again the enemy is adapting. Basically all his guns are set in depth at a distance inaccessible to our artillery. In the most "hot" directions they have concentrated an estimated up to two artillery brigades, this not counting the artillery of local brigades. We burned a lot of their towed artillery, they switched to using SAU. Ours say that it is very difficult to catch them, almost impossible, after the second shelling shot they move, change their position.

They have a lot of drones and even more. We have adapted here too, the last 2-3 weeks we have effectively started to destroy them. Verba and Arrow-10 SAMs work well against UAVs. But the Khokhlov has a lot of drones, they use them wisely, you see these attacks not only at the front, but also in our deep rear.

The main conclusion is that the war continues. Yes, we are stronger, our warriors are stronger and more courageous, our troops are more professional. We endure, we adapt, we adapt, we win, we have already taken down a lot of the enemy’s manpower. But it is foolish to deny that today #NATO is fighting against us with all its advanced technologies. We will win in any case, but Victory is separated from us only by one serious problem of ours - lies. Yes, there is less of it than there was at the beginning of the SMO, but it is there. There are at different levels, they talk about it in the troops. False reports, unfortunately, lead to poor decisions at many levels. This is there, let's acknowledge it and fight it, otherwise there will be trouble.

Ukr is doing much better this last week than they have done since the beginning of the 'counter-offensive' and Ru must be hurting .... losing position, ground and manpower as well as various military hardware.

I am unsure if the better performance of the Ukr forces will result in any telling gains. We wait to see.

[CelticRambler]

Why don't they stop it?
Do they want huge death rates?

Why don't you ask Putin? It's his vanity project, and he's the one who'd rather have his own people killed than have them surrender on the battlefield.

Oh, and your "usually reliable" sources (as always in this matter) are just spouting Russian scutter again, which has reliably and consistently been wrong since Feb 2022.

[PureIsle]

Why don't you ask Putin? It's his vanity project, and he's the one who'd rather have his own people killed than have them surrender on the battlefield.

I am sure he would much prefer his military to kill the Nazis they are fighting.

Oh, and your "usually reliable" sources (as always in this matter) are just spouting Russian scutter again, which has reliably and consistently been wrong since Feb 2022.

OK, so you say the general was wrong and Ukr has not done any better than they have all year. I prefer to believe a general who has actual information.

Nonetheless with nearly half a million Ukr killed I am sure you will tell us all they are winning, or is it they have already won?

Either way I will give whatever you post the attention it deserves.

[DeletedUser]

I am sure he would much prefer his military to kill the Nazis they are fighting.



OK, so you say the general was wrong and Ukr has not done any better than they have all year. I prefer to believe a general who has actual information.

Nonetheless with nearly half a million Ukr killed I am sure you will tell us all they are winning, or is it they have already won?

Either way I will give whatever you post the attention it deserves.

Christ there’s being on the wrong side - and then there’s this.

[CelticRambler]

OK, so you say the general was wrong and Ukr has not done any better than they have all year. I prefer to believe a general who has actual information.

Sure we know you prefer to believe the Russians, whether they're generals or not. The fact a general might have "actual information" doesn't mean they're passing it on to you, though. You're getting - and rebroadcasting - the complete nonsense they try to pass off as propaganda.

And besides, all the information coming from the (Russian) troops on the ground suggests that whatever information the higher level commanders have is at least several hours, sometimes years, out of date.

But keep believing what you want to believe if it makes you happy. I'll settle for seeing that the Russians are retreating on every front at the moment, and even making a strategic withdrawal of their Black Sea Fleet from Sevastopol this weekend. It's almost as if they don't quite believe that their future in Crimea is as strongly assured as Putin and all the generals say it is.

[PureIsle]

Sure we know you prefer to believe the Russians, whether they're generals or not. The fact a general might have "actual information" doesn't mean they're passing it on to you, though. You're getting - and rebroadcasting - the complete nonsense they try to pass off as propaganda.

And besides, all the information coming from the (Russian) troops on the ground suggests that whatever information the higher level commanders have is at least several hours, sometimes years, out of date.

But keep believing what you want to believe if it makes you happy. I'll settle for seeing that the Russians are retreating on every front at the moment, and even making a strategic withdrawal of their Black Sea Fleet from Sevastopol this weekend. It's almost as if they don't quite believe that their future in Crimea is as strongly assured as Putin and all the generals say it is.

If I was to believe you, Ukraine had already won back in May.
"Ukraine has already won."

[isha]

The thread has been going since June 2022 as a follow up to the February 2022 invasion of Ukraine by Russia.

Both "sides" of the debate on here are rather polarised, one side perhaps credulously noting Russian gains but preferring peace talks, the other side sardonically, albeit perhaps justifiably dismissing Russian capability from the get go and refusing to entertain peace talks.
And on it grinds. 500,000 people have been killed in battle from both sides. 5 million civilians have been internally displaced. 8 million civilians have fled their homeland. The country is ruined. It's a catastrophe. No matter what way you look at it. And on and on it will grind because it benefits some very wealthy powerful people and some geopolitical agenda. It just does.

[PureIsle]

An analysis of the confirmed deaths of Ru military personnel, excluding DPR/LPR, is provided in the following ... 31,665 as @ Sept 8th 2023 (add about 1,000 more since then)

EDIT: I am unsure of the dating of this article as I have since found another saying 47,000 as of May2023.
There is obviously no way to be sure of any of this information.

Accepting this figure is an underestimate, we could guess at 50 to 60 thousand.
This is about 10% of the Ukr losses according to most estimates we have seen recently ..... from 400,000 to 500,000 a couple of months ago.

As isha posted Ukr is decimated ... both in personnel and infrastructure damage.

At least 31,665 confirmed military deaths from 24 Feb 2022 to 7 Sept 2023

https://en.zona.media/article/2022/05/20/casualties_eng

I see that Stoltenberg (Sec. Gen. NATO) has confirmed that Ru promised to not invade Ukr if NATO signed an agreement to not expand. NATO refused, and so we have this conflict.

The big winners appear to be the military industrial complex whose production facilities are ramping up to produce more deadly arms.

The main losers are those giving their lives for the ambitions of those who stay safely out of the conflict.

[CelticRambler]

An analysis of the confirmed deaths of Ru military personnel, excluding DPR/LPR, is provided in the following ... 31,665 as @ Sept 8th 2023 (add about 1,000 more since then)

EDIT: I am unsure of the dating of this article as I have since found another saying 47,000 as of May2023.
There is obviously no way to be sure of any of this information.

Do you seriously believe any information provided by Russia and Russia-approved sources can be relied upon? Especially when we have daily examples of the very same sources lying in the face of overwhelming independent confirmation of whatever it is they've lied about?

In any case, even though you're still trying to blame NATO for Putin deciding bomb non-military targets and the civilians who live and work in and around them, day-in, day-out, the fact still remains that no-one ever indicated they were going to invade Russia, the Russia-NATO border is tiny compared to the rest of the country, and even Putin himself has said that his real motivation for this invasion is to wipe the Ukrainian people out of history so that he can expand the Russian empire as far west as the old Soviet Union. Do your "usually reliable" sources never pass on Putin's actual words?

Both "sides" of the debate on here are rather polarised, one side perhaps credulously noting Russian gains but preferring peace talks, the other side sardonically, albeit perhaps justifiably dismissing Russian capability from the get go and refusing to entertain peace talks.

Since when has anyone on "the other side" refused to entertain peace talks?

The "one side" has set as pre-condition for "peace" that Ukraine sits down, shuts up and lets Russian get on with its re-colonisation of Eastern Europe. The "other side" has also set pre-conditions: that Russia institutes an immediate cease-fire and removes all of their troops to beyond the internationally recognised borders of Ukraine.

There's also a set of post-aggression demands that have been presented, namely the return of all children abducted from Ukraine, the payment of reparations for the damage caused and the creation of a de-militarised zone of about 100km deep on the Russian side of the border. What part of that "geopolitical agenda" is not reasonable?