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Anyone still glued to this?

News, geopolitics, impact, consequences etc from the Ukraine Russia conflict
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Del.Monte
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Re: Anyone still glued to this?

#276

Post by Del.Monte »

Hairy-Joe wrote: Wed Nov 16, 2022 7:39 am Poland Russia war 1918-1919.
Never heard of it before but all those States in the East have been killing each other for hundreds of years and is another reason why my original view on the Russia/Ukraine conflict remains the same - leave them off.

As regards Poland beating Russia in that war
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Re: Anyone still glued to this?

#277

Post by knownunknown »

KHD wrote: Tue Nov 15, 2022 11:46 pm Sorry I missed this K. I don't see any evidence so far tonight that the Russians would even contemplate attacking Poland, that would only disrupt and cause unnecessary problems and distractions to their campaign in Ukraine. (Thinking logically here) If they were going to provoke Poland I would think they would be more inclined to hit the Polish military base close to the Ukrainian border in Rzeszow as that is where alot of the western weapons accumulate before been sent to Ukraine by rail.

What I'm seeing on the telegram channels, is that it is possibly the result of S300 missiles going astray or their self destructors not working. These missiles can fly for long time before falling. We've seen this in other conflicts. But that may be just rumour.

The Russian ambassador to Poland has been summoned to give an explanation. The Polish foreign ministry has said that it was a "Russian made" missile but that does not mean it's not a S300 missile as all these missiles no matter what country uses them are Russian made.
That’s what I said earlier when you corrected me to kalibr missiles! You’ll note the s300 are not just surface to air but also have been repurposed to ground to ground both by the Ukrainians and the Russians. The s300 is soviet era technology.

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Re: Anyone still glued to this?

#278

Post by KHD »

Del.Monte wrote: Wed Nov 16, 2022 7:17 am And so it goes on with the Western war mongers desperately trying to pin the Polish farm incident on the Russians. Why? If Russia wanted to pick a fight with NATO surely they would find something more important to target than a tractor and trailer? One has to ask why leaders in countries like Poland and the Baltic states have such a hard-on for a war with Russia. If there were to be a such a conflict - which didn't end up going nuclear - those States would be utterly destroyed before NATO regained the upper hand. Lemmings.
According to a report on telegram -

Mariusz Gershewski, a Polish journalist from Radio Zet, who was the first to announce the fall of missiles in Przevodow, said that the Polish security forces believe that the fragments of the missile that fell on the territory of the country belong to the Ukrainian air defense forces.

Poland, Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia are all minnows in this. They wouldn't have a chance militarily except if supported by America. The Russians have a large build up of forces and equipment in Belarus. The Poles have always had an extreme hatred of anything Russian bordering on the fanatical. The Americans are well aware of this. They've given alot of their military hardware already to Ukraine so what have they left ? What is the composition of their airforce, have they shipped some of their Migs to Ukraine too ? They are hosting the new Russian government in exile, great job lads. Only thing the Poles could really potentially do is come into western Ukraine. Alot of Polish nationalist are rubbing their hands at the thought of this as western Ukraine was once part of a bigger Poland. This would suit the Russians as they would not then have to deal with the fanatical far right there, which is where most of the nazi ideology of Ukraine stems from.
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Re: Anyone still glued to this?

#279

Post by KHD »

knownunknown wrote: Wed Nov 16, 2022 8:48 am That’s what I said earlier when you corrected me to kalibr missiles! You’ll note the s300 are not just surface to air but also have been repurposed to ground to ground both by the Ukrainians and the Russians. The s300 is soviet era technology.

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I haven't see any credible information that either the Ukrainians or the Russians are using S300 missiles in a ground target scenario. Artillery and canon shells are just as effective and are a fraction of the cost. Both sides have plenty of these. I've seen plenty of missfires though. Some of the videos on twitter will show AD systems firing off at low altitudes bit this to me would be targeting pairs of SU25s working at very low alttidues supporting troops on the ground. The Ukrainian stock would be alot older than the Russian systems as S300 systems are constantly upgraded. But the Ukrainian / Soviet version was still a very potent and powerful AD system. I see one of the Ukrainian AD missiles hit a building in Kiev this morning. No reports of fatalities.
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Re: Anyone still glued to this?

#280

Post by KHD »

One thing that has surprised in all of this, don't know if anyone had noticed, is the amount of old Soviet gear that has come out of the woodwork from both European armies and even held by the Americans. Where's all this new shiny gear that people talk about. Another thing I've noticed is that European and American armies are more focused on airpower and in the case of the Americans also maritime. The strategy of assuming control of the skies is fine in countries like Iraq and Libya but will not work if facing a country with integrated and wide range air defence systems. I think this war is bringing a few home truths about the strategies armies have had up to now, not only by the Russians, which has had to embrace drone technology and play catch up but also by the Americans who have let their artillery capabilities and stockpiles slip. Submarines have played an Important role for Russia in the sphere of sea lanches of cruise missiles.

Regarding logistics and supplies, one mode transport that has really stood out is rail networks. Countries with large land masses such as Ukraine, these rail links are critical for moving heavy weapons and supplies. This is why the energy infrastructure is now been targeted as the bulk of Ukraines rail system runs on electricity. The Russians are trying to slow or disable the supply of heavy weapons to the east of the country. I think it was Scholz who said recently that Europe needs to urgently look at its rail infrastructure for this very purpose.
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Re: Anyone still glued to this?

#281

Post by KHD »

Hairy-Joe wrote: Wed Nov 16, 2022 7:22 am Listening to the news this morning on the radio, it seems some are trying to take the heat out of the situation.

I imagine that the US know EXACTLY where the missile came from due to the E3 aircraft that's permanently in the air.
Looks like the Americans are ruling out a deliberate provocation from the Russians. A couple of American officials are now thinking it was the result of AD activity.
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Re: Anyone still glued to this?

#282

Post by Del.Monte »

Pat Kenny scrabbling about trying to find some way of linking Russia to Polish missile crisis. Probably turn out that it was a farming accident. :roll:
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Re: Anyone still glued to this?

#283

Post by CelticRambler »

KHD wrote: Wed Nov 16, 2022 9:27 amRegarding logistics and supplies, one mode transport that has really stood out is rail networks. Countries with large land masses such as Ukraine, these rail links are critical for moving heavy weapons and supplies. This is why the energy infrastructure is now been targeted as the bulk of Ukraines rail system runs on electricity. The Russians are trying to slow or disable the supply of heavy weapons to the east of the country.
Swings and roundabouts. From very early on, the Ukrainians (and partisans) understood that if they could hobble the Russian railways, they'd be rightly fkkd, as they hadn't anywhere near enough trucks or drivers to pick up the slack. That's one of the main reasons the Russians had no choice but to pull back from Kherson, and it'll be the main reason they have to pull out of Crimea (in due course).
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Re: Anyone still glued to this?

#284

Post by CelticRambler »

KHD wrote: Wed Nov 16, 2022 8:50 amThe Poles have ... given alot of their military hardware already to Ukraine so what have they left ?
KHD wrote: Wed Nov 16, 2022 9:27 am One thing that has surprised in all of this, don't know if anyone had noticed, is the amount of old Soviet gear that has come out of the woodwork from both European armies and even held by the Americans. Where's all this new shiny gear that people talk about.
This, again, is one of Putin's unintended consequences smacking him in the face. Up to the end of last year, NATO was staggering along as a mish-mash of eastern and western allies with all kinds of everything in their arsenals and no great impetus to do anything about it. Suddenly, in the space of half a year, the whole of Eastern Europe has switched over to the western systems, which are not only more modern, but also deliberately designed to work together.

Along with several other Eastern European countries, Poland has given all its old stock to the Ukraininas (who can use it straight away, because they're well used to it) and is being re-supplied itself with Western European and US systems. Meanwhile, elements of the Ukrainian forces are being rotated out of the conflict zone to be trained on these same Western systems so that they too, when Russia finally throws in the towel, will be fully aligned with NATO's technology.
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Re: Anyone still glued to this?

#285

Post by Del.Monte »

CelticRambler wrote: Wed Nov 16, 2022 12:24 pm Swings and roundabouts. From very early on, the Ukrainians (and partisans) understood that if they could hobble the Russian railways, they'd be rightly fkkd, as they hadn't anywhere near enough trucks or drivers to pick up the slack. That's one of the main reasons the Russians had no choice but to pull back from Kherson, and it'll be the main reason they have to pull out of Crimea (in due course).
I wonder if the Ukrainians got advice from CIE, or the Green party, as both outfits are experts at hobbling railways. :mrgreen:
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Re: Anyone still glued to this?

#286

Post by Hairy-Joe »

Well, turns out we can all relax, it a Ukrainian missile going off course.

Well, we can relax until the next time where we can all jump to completely wrong conclusions, myself included
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Re: Anyone still glued to this?

#287

Post by Hairy-Joe »

CelticRambler wrote: Wed Nov 16, 2022 12:24 pm Swings and roundabouts. From very early on, the Ukrainians (and partisans) understood that if they could hobble the Russian railways, they'd be rightly fkkd, as they hadn't anywhere near enough trucks or drivers to pick up the slack. That's one of the main reasons the Russians had no choice but to pull back from Kherson, and it'll be the main reason they have to pull out of Crimea (in due course).
Don't forget that the old Soviet thinking of rail for transport is probably still in Russian thinking when it comes to transport. For Soviets, rail was the thing to use due to the poor conditions of the roads
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Re: Anyone still glued to this?

#288

Post by KHD »

Hairy-Joe wrote: Wed Nov 16, 2022 4:07 pm Don't forget that the old Soviet thinking of rail for transport is probably still in Russian thinking when it comes to transport. For Soviets, rail was the thing to use due to the poor conditions of the roads
The railways to me would be the most efficient way of moving large quantities of heavy weaponry and other equipment in large quantities accross long distances over large land masses though. Still a very relevant mode of transport. It's been used by countries bordering Ukraine and in the EU, by the Ukrainians and also the Russians.

Another lesson learned I'd say by armies that are reliant on this mode of transport - don't get rid of your diesel locomotives as you may need them when the electrical power infrastructure gets taken out by the enemy!
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Re: Anyone still glued to this?

#289

Post by Del.Monte »

Hairy-Joe wrote: Wed Nov 16, 2022 4:05 pm Well, turns out we can all relax, it a Ukrainian missile going off course.

Well, we can relax until the next time where we can all jump to completely wrong conclusions, myself included
Even if it had turned out to be an errant Russian missile it was obviously an accident not the first shot in an invasion of Poland. It would be better for us if a lot of those former Warsaw pact countries could be given back to the Russians as they have more in common with them than with the West.
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Re: Anyone still glued to this?

#290

Post by CelticRambler »

KHD wrote: Wed Nov 16, 2022 5:18 pm The railways to me would be the most efficient way of moving large quantities of heavy weaponry and other equipment in large quantities accross long distances over large land masses though.
This is one of the points that's been made about the Russian's approach to this war (and has many parallels with their cousins', the Tories', preparation for Brexit) : they assumed that everyone else would do things the way they've been doing them in all their previous skirmishes, i.e. let them roll in, using their tried-and-tested, well-used rail network, and all would be well. It never occurred to them that the Ukrainians might disable their own railway system, leaving the Russians with no choice but to unload a million tonnes of ammunition and vehicles at a railway depot and truck it box-by-box over the last 200km. The infamous "40-mile convoy" was the first failure in this regard, and (apparently) they still haven't quite figured out how to do things differently.

Going off on a slight tangent, there have been and still are hordes of blood-thirsty westerners calling for the Ukrainians to slaughter every sitting Russian duck as and when they get the chance. The Ukrainians haven't. They knew perfectly well that that 40-mile convoy would grind to a halt if they cut off it's supply of fuel, and it did. Similarly, they knew perfectly well that the Russians would turn tail and run from Kherson city if they cut off supplies of fuel and ammunition, and they did.

That's why I'm reasonably confident in the prediction that Crimea will be the next major victory - it'll be so much easier to isolate than any part of the Donbass. Psychologically, though, it will be an almighty kick in the balls for Putin and his goons. If you were a Russian sympathiser living in Crimea, watching what's just happened in Kherson (as well as seeing the Black Sea Fleet weigh anchor and skidaddle off out of Sevastopol) would you hang around, or would you be packing your bags and legging it back to Mother Russia via the overland coastal route before the Ukrainians have it in range?

And at the end of the day, if Putin & Co. care so little about Kyiv, Karkhiv, Kherson and Crimea that they'll happily pull their armed forces out with little more than a half-hearted whimper, why would they even bother breaking open the seals on their nukes?
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Re: Anyone still glued to this?

#291

Post by CelticRambler »

KHD wrote: Wed Nov 16, 2022 5:18 pmAnother lesson learned I'd say by armies that are reliant on this mode of transport - don't get rid of your diesel locomotives as you may need them when the electrical power infrastructure gets taken out by the enemy!
A lesson for us all - even in a politically stable country, the electrical grid is a very temperamental piece of infrastructure. I think "we" are becoming excessively reliant on it, and we'll pay for it sooner or later

("we" in quotation marks, because I'm trying my hardest to maintain my dependence on analogue devices and fossil fuels, whatever the rest of the world does. :mrgreen: )
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Re: Anyone still glued to this?

#292

Post by Hairy-Joe »

Del.Monte wrote: Wed Nov 16, 2022 5:20 pm Even if it had turned out to be an errant Russian missile it was obviously an accident not the first shot in an invasion of Poland. It would be better for us if a lot of those former Warsaw pact countries could be given back to the Russians as they have more in common with them than with the West.
Ah geez, that's like saying Ireland should be given back to the Brits.....

Then again, that could give the Brexiteers ideas to "restore the British empire"
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Re: Anyone still glued to this?

#293

Post by Hairy-Joe »

Another thing CR to remember is that Russia doesn't really use standardised pallets. Look at the footage of the loaded trucks. Packed with individual boxes, nothing on pallets. That takes SO much longer to load/unload and a lot more people when compared to a forklift and a pallet. The huge loading/unloading time means less journeys per truck per day, slowing down getting material to the Russian soldier.

It really shows the phrase "guns wins battles but logistics wins wars" holds true.
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Re: Anyone still glued to this?

#294

Post by KHD »

Interesting article in the FT. Apparently Zelensky will not accept that it was a Ukrainian AD missile that hit Poland yesterday. A diplomat from Nato in Kyiv told the FT "This is getting ridiculous. The Ukrainians are destroying [our] confidence in them. Nobody is blaming Ukraine and they are openly lying. This is more destructive than the missile."

https://www.ft.com/content/d417ea8f-62e ... 5a98fc6b3a

I'm surprised by that statement as it is not something I'd expect any diplomat from Nato to say, publicly anyway.

My own opinion is that Zelensky needs to be careful of his utterances at this point, especially the likes of his statement immediately after the Polish incident where he basically called on Nato to act without any type of investigation into the incident. Is there a point where someone in Nato or the US would try and get him to stand aside if he starts getting a bit uppity with the countries backing him ? Just thinking out loud here but you don't bite the hand that feeds you and he is contradicting most of the major countries that support him both in financial and military aid.
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Re: Anyone still glued to this?

#295

Post by Del.Monte »

I hate to say it but Zelensky in his combat gear comes across as somebody who thinks they are starring in a soap. He must have watched too many Castro movies when he was younger. He should have taken the offer of a flight out when the US offered it.
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Re: Anyone still glued to this?

#296

Post by isha »

When I saw this clip I honestly thought it was a skit. But no. These are among the most powerful people on the planet. This is how stuff is done these days.




https://www.gov.uk/government/news/pm-c ... ember-2022

The schoolboys are talking to ol' sniffy nose here. 🙄


Thinking out loud, and trying to be occasionally less wrong...
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Re: Anyone still glued to this?

#297

Post by KHD »

Another large launch of kalibr missiles is currently underway across Ukraine this morning from the Black Sea direction. Ukraine government spokesman said it is targeting gas production facilities and large industrial plants.
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Re: Anyone still glued to this?

#298

Post by Del.Monte »

When this all ends we will either be dead or Russia will have collapsed. If we survive and Russia remains intact it will be a pariah State for generations and the war reparations will be ruinious - Putin's legacy one way or the other.
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Re: Anyone still glued to this?

#299

Post by Hairy-Joe »

Del.Monte wrote: Thu Nov 17, 2022 9:28 am When this all ends we will either be dead or Russia will have collapsed. If we survive and Russia remains intact it will be a pariah State for generations and the war reparations will be ruinious - Putin's legacy one way or the other.
The big question is how long it'll take ordinary Russian people to realise that.
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Re: Anyone still glued to this?

#300

Post by knownunknown »

KHD wrote: Wed Nov 16, 2022 9:40 pm Interesting article in the FT. Apparently Zelensky will not accept that it was a Ukrainian AD missile that hit Poland yesterday. A diplomat from Nato in Kyiv told the FT "This is getting ridiculous. The Ukrainians are destroying [our] confidence in them. Nobody is blaming Ukraine and they are openly lying. This is more destructive than the missile."

https://www.ft.com/content/d417ea8f-62e ... 5a98fc6b3a

I'm surprised by that statement as it is not something I'd expect any diplomat from Nato to say, publicly anyway.

My own opinion is that Zelensky needs to be careful of his utterances at this point, especially the likes of his statement immediately after the Polish incident where he basically called on Nato to act without any type of investigation into the incident. Is there a point where someone in Nato or the US would try and get him to stand aside if he starts getting a bit uppity with the countries backing him ? Just thinking out loud here but you don't bite the hand that feeds you and he is contradicting most of the major countries that support him both in financial and military aid.
I’m guessing what the bbc say here is pretty similar for anyone like me behind the paywall. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-63656664

His comments about ‘not our missile’ and he wants to be involved in the investigations indicates he doesn’t believe the nato narrative.
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