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Anyone still glued to this?

News, geopolitics, impact, consequences etc from the Ukraine Russia conflict
Hugh_Bigazz
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Re: Anyone still glued to this?

#26

Post by Hugh_Bigazz »

Hairy-Joe
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Re: Anyone still glued to this?

#27

Post by Hairy-Joe »

Ah why would you think that Ncdjd2? I'd rather debate in a civilised manner rather than shouting abuse at eachother.

Sure I don't agree with your perspective but you do raise an alternative perspective that's worth considering. Given the amount of smartphone and geo-locations on video/photo, I can understand the blackout. Also, I've read reports from some US media that the pentagon advised probing attacks rather than broad attacks after running planning wargames.

I think Zelensky is doing a lot better than Erdogan who has ruined a country economically, pissed off both sides and is one step away from a dictator.

Anyway, we'll see in a few months or years who was right but I think we can agree that Russia, even if it does win somehow, will be pariahs for a long time
CelticRambler
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Re: Anyone still glued to this?

#28

Post by CelticRambler »

Ncdjd2 wrote: Sat Sep 03, 2022 11:13 am A media blackout to me means things aren't going well for Ukraine. If the arm campaign was going well there would be no media blackout. Doesn't make sense to not announce to the nation that gains are being made etc for the morale of the people. This is an important aspect of war when you are fighting an invading country.
A media blackout is essential when you're making progress, because the last thing you need is for the other side to get any extra information that might help them figure out where you are and where you're headed. Ukraine has already paid a price for letting some Western journalists report from their front line a few months ago - a bunch of French journalists, who were too eager to publish their scoop, inadvertently revealed the exact location of the troops and allowed the Russians to kill the lot of them the next day.

It works both ways, of course, and it would appear that the Russian conscripts ... sorry, contract soliders ... don't always understand the need to not share photos of their bunker, and find themselves being targetted within the next 24 hours or less.

In the end, the morale of the people isn't going to be improved (or made worse) by a constant stream of minor updates reporting the liberation of three villages no-one has heard of before. Much better that the army and its commanders concentrate on keeping up the morale of their units by regularly rotating them away from the frontline. Time is on Ukraine's side; there's no need to push for a speedy victory when Russia is struggling to keep its "military machine" running.
knownunknown
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Re: Anyone still glued to this?

#29

Post by knownunknown »

Met a guy this week just flown in from Ukraine last week. Really nice chap brought his family and daughters with him, working away already.

Interesting that the point he made that resonated with me is that he doesn’t want to see this war lasting, he wants it to end immediately but he fears it will continue for years because that’s what the generals are saying(he said general but I guess he meant all army people).
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isha
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Re: Anyone still glued to this?

#30

Post by isha »

Ncdjd2 wrote: Sat Sep 03, 2022 1:27 pm I see this whole Ukraine / Russian conflict as being a dangerous thing to discuss online if you don't agree with everyone else. You have to be careful and take precautions. It's not like Covid for instance where you can have an alternative view point and your just classed as a bit daft. There are massive resources being thrown at this from an informational warfare point of view. There are organised online operations and individual fanatics that are aimed to dox people and ruin people's reputations and businesses for not getting onboard with the whole Slava Ukraine thing. You just have to look at the #nafo campaign currently on twitter. It's a nasty fanatical business of outing users and shutting off discussions not only is it aimed at Russian state affiliated accounts and Putinbots but also ordinary individuals and journalists who have a differing view point or are reporting stuff on aspects of this war. It's something unknownknown touched on in another thread on here with regard censorship. This is nothing to do with the likes of yourself or any other regular poster on this site who I have nothing but respect for and know ye are not involved in any of the aforementioned stuff I posted.

There has been something that has been racking my brain for the last two or three weeks maybe someone with a bit more information savvy can comment on. This was brought to my attention after the murder of Darya Dugina and involves the myrotvorets.center website. This is apparently a Ukrainian Kill list site, there are journalists and even Roger Waters and Henry Kissinger are on it for suggesting publicly that there should be some form of contact and negotiations taking place to put an end to this war.

The url of the website ( will put Roger Waters in it as an example ) -> https://myrotvorets.center/criminal/uoters-rodzher/ ( It's in Ukrainian but can be translated to English using Google Chrome )

If you right click on any image on the website and open in a new tab it goes to another domain which hosts the images. So in Roger Water's case it's ->https://psb4ukr.natocdn.net/criminals/1 ... oger-1.jpg

So the FQDN is psb4ukr.natocdn.net... psb4ukr is the host name of the server, natocdn.net is the domain the psb4ukr server is hosted on. If I do a dnslookup of natocdn.net I get the public IP address of this domain as 152.152.31.120

If I do an IP lookup of this IP address I get the owners of the IP address block

IP Address: 152.152.31.120
ASN: -
City: Brussels
State/Region: Brussels Hoofdstedelijk Gewest
Country: BE
Postal Code: 1110
ISP: NATO HQ
Time Zone: +02:00
IP2Location.com Results
IP Address: 152.152.31.120
ASN:
City:
State/Region:
Country: Belgium
Postal Code:
ISP:
Time Zone: +0200

That's why I think people need to be cautious about posting online and going against the grain on what is happening in Ukriane. Not that any of us would be put on it but, if I'm correct in my above analysis of the site, gives you an idea on the resources being pumped into the informational sphere when it comes to Ukraine.
Yoikes!!👀😳

All I do is shout my mouth off online with all the wrong opinions. My husband is always saying I'll have busloads of trans activists or pro war types or NGO employees coming up the lane one of the days. But now maybe also the Feds 😢
Thinking out loud, and trying to be occasionally less wrong...
Hairy-Joe
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Re: Anyone still glued to this?

#31

Post by Hairy-Joe »

Well, looking at the recent gains in the East, looks like the "struggle's" the Ukrainian army was having in the south were designed to draw Russians to the south, weakening the east.

I'm surprised at the speeds obtained.
marhay70
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Re: Anyone still glued to this?

#32

Post by marhay70 »

Hairy-Joe wrote: Sat Sep 10, 2022 7:43 am Well, looking at the recent gains in the East, looks like the "struggle's" the Ukrainian army was having in the south were designed to draw Russians to the south, weakening the east.

I'm surprised at the speeds obtained.
I was watching a report the other night that said that, for the most part, the army that Ukraine is fighting in the East is not the Russian Army but made up of conscripts from the breakaway territories, with a few Russian officers. This might account for the tactical gaffes and lack of commitment of the opposition. The report said there was evidence of young men being shanghaied on the streets, given obsolete equipment, poor clothing and a few days training and sent off to fight. The report was from what is usually a pro Ukranian source so I'm inclined to think there is some validity in it, of course you never know, propaganda works in many different ways.
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Del.Monte
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Re: Anyone still glued to this?

#33

Post by Del.Monte »

Anybody who believes that Ukraine can beat the Russians is delusional and I'm inclined to believe reports on the conscripts Putin has in his forces. Another reason why I fear he may try battlefield nukes as he has no regard for his troops and his generals are more interested in their assets in foreign banks.
'no more blah blah blah'
marhay70
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Re: Anyone still glued to this?

#34

Post by marhay70 »

Del.Monte wrote: Sat Sep 10, 2022 11:05 am Anybody who believes that Ukraine can beat the Russians is delusional and I'm inclined to believe reports on the conscripts Putin has in his forces. Another reason why I fear he may try battlefield nukes as he has no regard for his troops and his generals are more interested in their assets in foreign banks.
Well, I suppose that in the cases where Ukraine has been facing the "real" Russian Army, they have acquitted themselves well. War is mostly a long distance affair these days, with little of the close quarter fighting that went on in WW2, so equipment is more important, and NATO is supplying Ukraine with top of the range stuff, whereas Russian material, even that used by the Russian army, appears to be substandard. Ukraine also seem very adept at adapting weapons for uses other than what they were intended for, they seem to be very inventive. I suspect that even though the US has said that weapons they supply should not be used to target Russian territory, Ukraine has nuclear technology and Putin might just find that, if he starts lobbing tactical nukes, he gets a surprise.
CelticRambler
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Re: Anyone still glued to this?

#35

Post by CelticRambler »

Del.Monte wrote: Sat Sep 10, 2022 11:05 am Anybody who believes that Ukraine can beat the Russians is delusional
Given that Ukraine has shown the supposed mighty Russian army to be nothing more than a rag-tag bunch of incompetent old men and young savages, and that Ukraine has already beaten the Russians by every metric other than chasing them off their land (a work in progress), why would you say that Russia has any hope of winning? You can't fall back on the old chestnut of "but nukes" as there is nothing to indicate that they have any battle-ready nuclear weapons. In fact, we can reasonably extrapolate the experience of the Ukrainian theatre to suggest that Russian nuclear weapons probably won't work, as no other branch of their armed forces is fit for the purpose of modern warfare.
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Del.Monte
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Re: Anyone still glued to this?

#36

Post by Del.Monte »

Whatever about me, it sounds like you've swallowed all the Western propaganda hook, line and sinker. You'll be telling me next that the Russians are drinking the anti-freeze from their tanks which was amongst the nonsense put out about them when they invaded Afghanistan. Short of NATO forces joining in there will be no victory for the Ukrainians. The place may well turn out to be the Russian version of Vietnam but it's their backyard and they cannot afford to lose. The only people doing well out of this are the disgusting arms manufacturers in the USA.
'no more blah blah blah'
kadman
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Re: Anyone still glued to this?

#37

Post by kadman »

Del.Monte wrote: Sat Sep 10, 2022 1:18 pm Whatever about me, it sounds like you've swallowed all the Western propaganda hook, line and sinker. You'll be telling me next that the Russians are drinking the anti-freeze from their tanks which was amongst the nonsense put out about them when they invaded Afghanistan. Short of NATO forces joining in there will be no victory for the Ukrainians. The place may well turn out to be the Russian version of Vietnam but it's their backyard and they cannot afford to lose. The only people doing well out of this are the disgusting arms manufacturers in the USA.
Us military industrial complex are gagging themselves with the profits they are making from this war, and any other war they are involved in by proxy.
And the eu is paying the price in so many forms. This is christmas come early for the US in weapons sales, and its a great excuse for increasing their budget,
CelticRambler
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Re: Anyone still glued to this?

#38

Post by CelticRambler »

Del.Monte wrote: Sat Sep 10, 2022 1:18 pm Whatever about me, it sounds like you've swallowed all the Western propaganda hook, line and sinker. You'll be telling me next that the Russians are drinking the anti-freeze from their tanks which was amongst the nonsense put out about them when they invaded Afghanistan. Short of NATO forces joining in there will be no victory for the Ukrainians.
Are you saying that the reports of a rout of Russian forces over the last few days are fake? And that the Russians angrily berating their Glorious Leadership for a lack of effective military strategy and competence are wrong? And that the Russian government's figures of approximately 50000 Russian families indemnified for the death of male members while actively serving in the "Special Military Operation" are false?

I'm curious as to what information you have that indicates that Russia is doing really well, when the overwhelming data available from all parties - East, West, and outer space, confirms unequivocally that the Russian forces are losing troops, vehicles and occupied territory at an unimaginable rate. What sources are you drawing upon to support the view that this is all nonsense and Putin is, in fact, bravely leading his conquering heros to the Adriatic coast as we speak.
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Del.Monte
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Re: Anyone still glued to this?

#39

Post by Del.Monte »

CelticRambler wrote: Sat Sep 10, 2022 2:23 pm Are you saying that the reports of a rout of Russian forces over the last few days are fake? And that the Russians angrily berating their Glorious Leadership for a lack of effective military strategy and competence are wrong? And that the Russian government's figures of approximately 50000 Russian families indemnified for the death of male members while actively serving in the "Special Military Operation" are false?

I'm curious as to what information you have that indicates that Russia is doing really well, when the overwhelming data available from all parties - East, West, and outer space, confirms unequivocally that the Russian forces are losing troops, vehicles and occupied territory at an unimaginable rate. What sources are you drawing upon to support the view that this is all nonsense and Putin is, in fact, bravely leading his conquering heros to the Adriatic coast as we speak.
I haven't time to devote myself full-time to this subject, between the old racism and liking a cup of tea in the evening but to give me something to research can you provide anything to back this up? :mrgreen:

Incidentally, since my earlier post I visited the BBC website which now seems like a PR department of the Ukrainian government. Lest, you think I am some sort of Putin supporter, if he was on fire outside my house I would go over and top him up with some petrol in case he went out.
'no more blah blah blah'
Hairy-Joe
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Re: Anyone still glued to this?

#40

Post by Hairy-Joe »

I think Russia will loose overall.

On the battlefield, Ukraine has the upper hand but I can see the Ukrainian push running out of steam and petering out. This will give time for Russia to recover and push back. It'll see-saw for a while but Ukraine will triumph as their will is stronger and they'll have better weapons.

On the Russian home front, that's where Russia will loose. The sanctions will bite more and more and not supplying EU with gas cuts off their main source of foreign capital. The sanctions are biting already and the main impact is on the railway due to a lack of bearings off all things! The see-saw on the battlefield, along with the sanctions will eventually make people realise that the war isn't what the propaganda says it is and the dissent will increase.

If the war gets worse for Russia, I can see a palace coup against Putin. I think him wanting to launch nukes will force the palace coup.
CelticRambler
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Re: Anyone still glued to this?

#41

Post by CelticRambler »

Del.Monte wrote: Sat Sep 10, 2022 3:17 pm I haven't time to devote myself full-time to this subject, between the old racism and liking a cup of tea in the evening but to give me something to research can you provide anything to back this up? :mrgreen:
Well, if you're not that motivated, then neither am I. Am taking the parents to a dance tonight, so I'll leave you to your cup of tea, and will hope to return to the 'net in the early hours of the morning to learn that the current rumours of yet more advances are true, as all those of the last 72 hours have been. :P
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Cyclepath
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Re: Anyone still glued to this?

#42

Post by Cyclepath »

Not sure if anyone else follows John Sweeney here?

https://twitter.com/johnsweeneyroar?s=2 ... auupP9_7sg

He's a writer/broadcaster/journalist - 17 years with BBC Panorama/Newsnight etc. He stayed in the Ukrainian capital throughout the Battle of Kyiv and is something of an expert on that area of the world.

He's saying that there are currently rumours of an outright mutiny forming in the Russian army.

Also, according to Julia Davis of Russian Media Monitor, even Russian TV pundits are accepting the war has been lost and are disingenuously asking who gave Putin the wrong advice!

JONJO THE MISER
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Re: Anyone still glued to this?

#43

Post by JONJO THE MISER »

Over 400 bodies of innocent men women and children that were tortured and murdered by Russian scum found today.
What kind of animals kill innocent young children.
Hairy-Joe
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Re: Anyone still glued to this?

#44

Post by Hairy-Joe »

Ethnic cleansing.

You'd think the Russians would know more about that than the rest of us given what they suffered under the Nazi's. Seems like they are channeling their inner Stalin and doing his version of ethnic cleansing.
marhay70
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Re: Anyone still glued to this?

#45

Post by marhay70 »

Cyclepath wrote: Mon Sep 12, 2022 2:43 pm Not sure if anyone else follows John Sweeney here?

https://twitter.com/johnsweeneyroar?s=2 ... auupP9_7sg

He's a writer/broadcaster/journalist - 17 years with BBC Panorama/Newsnight etc. He stayed in the Ukrainian capital throughout the Battle of Kyiv and is something of an expert on that area of the world.

He's saying that there are currently rumours of an outright mutiny forming in the Russian army.
though, if Putin'
Also, according to Julia Davis of Russian Media Monitor, even Russian TV pundits are accepting the war has been lost and are disingenuously asking who gave Putin the wrong advice!

Good insight there into the Russian media, if a bit loud. Obviously there are hawks and doves, realists and fantasists just like everywhere else. Its doubtful, though, if Putin is listening to any of them. I think he is determined, now, to fight to the last drop of everybody elses blood.
Biden had said that he didn't want Ukraine to bring the war past its borders but now , as Putin hints once, once again, of the nuclear element, he seems to be changing tack. What that will mean is anyone's guess, my own is that it's to put the wind up those within the Russian administration who are already wavering.
Reports of the mutiny in the Russian army seem to be based on the fact that senior officers have disappeared from the battlefield and left the plebs to be annihilated, nothing new there. What is new is that the plebs are saying to the Ukranians "you want this stuff here it is, we're not going to fight over it" in return for decent treatment.
knownunknown
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Re: Anyone still glued to this?

#46

Post by knownunknown »

Putin to make a big address tonight, biggest since the ‘special military operation’ began. Some rumours that he’ll withdraw and others saying he’ll officially declare war. I predict an escalation but I hope for otherwise.
Hairy-Joe
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Re: Anyone still glued to this?

#47

Post by Hairy-Joe »

knownunknown wrote: Tue Sep 20, 2022 7:44 pm Putin to make a big address tonight, biggest since the ‘special military operation’ began. Some rumours that he’ll withdraw and others saying he’ll officially declare war. I predict an escalation but I hope for otherwise.
I'm hoping for the first but it'll probably be the second. That'll allow mobilisation but I don't think he can raise enough properly trained in time to make a difference. He's used up a lot of the first line equipment.
CelticRambler
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Re: Anyone still glued to this?

#48

Post by CelticRambler »

knownunknown wrote: Tue Sep 20, 2022 7:44 pm Putin to make a big address tonight, biggest since the ‘special military operation’ began. Some rumours that he’ll withdraw and others saying he’ll officially declare war. I predict an escalation but I hope for otherwise.
Well, in the end he's chickened out and no-one knows where to find him ... or his press secretary. But (perhaps after the rumours of impending mobilisation turned the Russian stockmarket very ironic red it has been announced that there won't, after all, be any general mobilisation. And Comrade Putin's address to the nation has been rescheduled for tomorrow.

Curiouser and curiouser.
Hairy-Joe
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Re: Anyone still glued to this?

#49

Post by Hairy-Joe »

Ya, I'm wondering if some people got to him and said something like "cop on". Stock market is tanking, Google searches on leaving Russia and avoiding mobilisation skyrocketed, there feck all modern weapons left, the "best" units of the Russian Army are gone, the air force and navy are nowhere and the biggest source of weapons to the Ukrainian army is Russians abandoning their equipment.....
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isha
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Re: Anyone still glued to this?

#50

Post by isha »

Putin gave his speech just now.

A truncated summary as per Max Seddon in the thread here..

Thinking out loud, and trying to be occasionally less wrong...
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