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Anyone still glued to this?

News, geopolitics, impact, consequences etc from the Ukraine Russia conflict
CelticRambler
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Re: Anyone still glued to this?

#51

Post by CelticRambler »

Poor fella, seems to be behind the times. Thinks Russia fully controls all of Luhansk, even though Russian sources on Twitter acknowledge Ukrainian troops have liberated territory in some parts there.

And a partial mobilisation will include exemptions for people in jail? Would these be the same jails where they're actively recruiting "volunteers" to fight in Ukraine, or only the ones where they lock up the refusniks and political adversaries? :roll:

All-in-all, another premature, sperm-less ejaculation. Time he treated himself to a long holiday somewhere. I hear the beaches in Crimea are lovely this time of year. :mrgreen:
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Re: Anyone still glued to this?

#52

Post by 95438756 »

isha wrote: Wed Sep 21, 2022 7:40 am Putin gave his speech just now.

A truncated summary as per Max Seddon in the thread here..

Soon at this rate Putin will be making a speech to more "reservists" massed in St Basils Square, the same as Josef Goebbels to the volksturm by the Quadriglia in November 1944
marhay70
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Re: Anyone still glued to this?

#53

Post by marhay70 »

A follow up speech needs to be made to the people in Moscow, St. Petersburg, Ekaterinburg etc. saying " by the way, although we have all these fearsome modern weapons to defend Russia and a great and mighty leader to use them, don't worry, because a couple of hours after the first launch is detected by the dozens of satellites there to record just such an event, you will all be dead, Russia will be no more, any that survive will emerge to a wasteland where nothing can live". This is the reality of what this man is promising, I can't believe there is anybody on this earth with more than one brain cell who doesn't know this.
What will the Indians do, the Chinese, the Iranians. Are they just going to stand by and cheerlead for Vlad, while he signs their death warrants? Even Putin himself, assuming he has a bunker where he can hide with his billions. What will he do when the dust settles?
Hairy-Joe
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Re: Anyone still glued to this?

#54

Post by Hairy-Joe »

Just heard on the radio that all flights out of Russia are getting booked out.....
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Re: Anyone still glued to this?

#55

Post by Hairy-Joe »

marhay70 wrote: Wed Sep 21, 2022 10:03 am Even Putin himself, assuming he has a bunker where he can hide with his billions. What will he do when the dust settles?
Having all the Billions will be no good as there'll be nothing left to buy!
CelticRambler
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Re: Anyone still glued to this?

#56

Post by CelticRambler »

Hairy-Joe wrote: Wed Sep 21, 2022 10:17 am Just heard on the radio that all flights out of Russia are getting booked out.....
... and twitter says the now second most popular search on Russian Google is "how to break your arm" :lol:

And we all thought Zelenskyy was the comic. Vlad's on course to get himself a head-line spot at the Edinburgh Fringe next year. :roll:
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Re: Anyone still glued to this?

#57

Post by 95438756 »

CelticRambler wrote: Wed Sep 21, 2022 12:36 pm

And we all thought Zelenskyy was the comic. Vlad's on course to get himself a head-line spot at the Edinburgh Fringe next year. :roll:
Preparing for Glastonberry
765489

Re: Anyone still glued to this?

#58

Post by 765489 »

Interesting read this for anyone following US / Russia relations given what is currently taking place in Ukraine. Published in 2019 by the Rand Corporation for the US army at the time. Some of the proposals and risk analysis I don't think have turned out the way they have expected, others have.

https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_briefs/RB10014.html

My own opinion on the Russian mobilisation and the referenda being planned for the four eastern regions of Ukraine is that this is a very serious escalation and development in the current conflict. Unsurprisingly, and is of just as much concern to me, is that alot of people have already written / laughed this off as Putin and his orcs are taking some sort of psychedelic drugs. Alot of people are going to die in this. I don't find any of this a laughing matter and neither would anyone living in these regions. But there is a surrealism and alternative reality to this conflict as to the way its discussed on social media. We are witnessing a massive human tragedy unfolding and its going to get worse.

And for those of you who think the people of Eastern Ukraine are some how subhuman I'll leave ye with this. Not everyone can just up sticks and leave. And yes they are human beings also.

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isha
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Re: Anyone still glued to this?

#59

Post by isha »

Ncdjd2 wrote: Thu Sep 22, 2022 1:09 pm Interesting read this for anyone following US / Russia relations given what is currently taking place in Ukraine. Published in 2019 by the Rand Corporation for the US army at the time. Some of the proposals and risk analysis I don't think have turned out the way they have expected, others have.

https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_briefs/RB10014.html

My own opinion on the Russian mobilisation and the referenda being planned for the four eastern regions of Ukraine is that this is a very serious escalation and development in the current conflict. Unsurprisingly, and is of just as much concern to me, is that alot of people have already written / laughed this off as Putin and his orcs are taking some sort of psychedelic drugs. Alot of people are going to die in this. I don't find any of this a laughing matter and neither would anyone living in these regions. But there is a surrealism and alternative reality to this conflict as to the way its discussed on social media. We are witnessing a massive human tragedy unfolding and its going to get worse.

And for those of you who think the people of Eastern Ukraine are some how subhuman I'll leave ye with this. Not everyone can just up sticks and leave. And yes they are human beings also.

I agree.
The callous way so many talk about this war as if they are moving plastic figures around a gaming board just amazes me. Day one there should have been no other agenda than stopping this monstrous war. But no, it's like a video game in too many people's heads. Honestly the last three years of human behaviour has blown my mind.
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knownunknown
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Re: Anyone still glued to this?

#60

Post by knownunknown »

Following on from what CR said in the immigration thread:.
CelticRambler wrote: Thu Sep 22, 2022 3:46 pm :shock:

There is one, and only one, maker of this crisis, and that's Vladimir Putin. America, Nato and the EU did not force him to send his troops and his missiles into Ukraine. Don't go attributing blame to anyone other than the real culprit - it only gives support to those who have other axes to grind and nothing to do with Putin's desire to recreate the Soviet Union by genocide, scorched earth and re-settlement. :evil:
Let them grind their axes, better then peoples heads being blown off with tank shells. The only way to resolve a situation is to air everyone’s grievances. Imagine a man gets a knife pulled on him because he slapped another guy, the knife was an escalation of force but the slap was very consequential. You’ll never get them to make up until this is at least acknowledged, when people retaliate it’s usually with an escalation of force, because harm against us is felt more strongly, we feel like we are reacting with the same strength.

Putin is the only invader that is a fact. He alone decided to invade Ukraine and cause the loss of tens of thousands of lives. He is the only culprit in this regard.

He had a few red lines though and we crossed them, clear red lines that he voiced on multiple occasions.
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/pu ... 021-11-18/
We had an opportunity to give that mad evil dickhead a few security guarantees that would have avoided all of this. Acknowledging this fact has become a crime because of our big tech overlords. It’s nothing about axes being ground, it’s about coming to a resolution and stopping this crazy war.

If you keep telling the guy with the knife he wasn’t slapped you only enrage him further.
765489

Re: Anyone still glued to this?

#61

Post by 765489 »

There is no one calling for any sort of substantive negotiations on ending this conflict. The West and Russia are miles apart and are drifting further away every day. Result is dead people, innocent people and young people caught up in conflict. Dare I say I'll hear the same old tired rubbish, oh it's Putin's war, this argument does not provide for anything in way of even opening up the possibility of people getting around the table. Easy for all of us to dismiss that negotiating with a mad man, as the west likes to label him, but the fact of the matter is that this conflict will eventually get out of control if something is not done. It won't be some magical military victory as a military victory in this case is nuclear conflict. There will be no winners in any of this and the collective West and Russia will be destroyed if either party are under threat of complete annihilation on the battlefield. I heard someone balking at Russia's nuclear capabilities when infact they modernised their nuclear arsenal over the past decade while America is only starting to modernise its nuclear arsenal. ( Just incase that old chestnut is wheeled out. And it was the Americans who stated this by the way )
765489

Re: Anyone still glued to this?

#62

Post by 765489 »

knownunknown wrote: Thu Sep 22, 2022 4:47 pm
Putin is the only invader that is a fact. He alone decided to invade Ukraine and cause the loss of tens of thousands of lives. He is the only culprit in this regard.
If you get time have a read through the Rand Corporation research document published in 2019 I linked earlier. These guys have been drawing up policy documents for the US army and State department since the Vietnam war and all throughout the Cold war. There is a specific risk analysis done on Ukraine in relation to over stretching Russia's military capabilities.

There is more than Putin involved in the starting of this. I don't think Putin is mad. Infact I've listened to former diplomats describe him as a guy that doesn't like big changes and likes things in a status quo type mode. There are many political figures in Russia who want to just nuke the west. He was the middle man holding these people back in my opinion. He even wanted to be part of the EU at one stage. This all gets lost with the constant calls about Putin being nuts and evil. The west always needs a bogeyman when they are doing things they shouldn't be doing. Such as installing a Nato liaison office in Ukraine before Putin invaded. Or organising the colour revolution that overthrew Viktor Fedorovych's democratically elected government in 2014.

The west knew the consequences of all these provocations with Russia. We all now will suffer over super powers and former super powers playing geopolitical chess with each other on a country which I fear will no longer exist the way things are currently panning out.

Slava Ukraine / Nato / Putin, take your pick, its all the same.
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Re: Anyone still glued to this?

#63

Post by 95438756 »

If not respectfully, good.
BBC News - Ukraine war: US says it takes Putin nuclear threat seriously
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-63000444
CelticRambler
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Re: Anyone still glued to this?

#64

Post by CelticRambler »

knownunknown wrote: Thu Sep 22, 2022 4:47 pm Putin ... had a few red lines though and we crossed them, clear red lines that he voiced on multiple occasions.
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/pu ... 021-11-18/
And what were they, those red lines? Because there aren't any mentioned in the linked article - only a comment that Putin didn't say what he wanted from the West.

On the other hand, he has been very clear about what he wants for Russia: the complete annihilation of Ukraine, it's history, it's people and it's culture, and the restoration of the Russian-Soviet empire to the previous borders along the Baltic and Adriatic Seas.
Ncdjd2 wrote: Thu Sep 22, 2022 5:12 pm There is no one calling for any sort of substantive negotiations on ending this conflict.
There have been plenty who've tried already - Macron, Schotlz, Erdogan to name but three - but Putin has told them all to feck off. And in case you missed it, last night, instead of displaying a willingness to engage in meaningful discussion himself, he declared a state of martial law in his country, boosted his conscription efforts and threatened all the rest of us with nuclear attack.

He could very easily have held his sham referendums back in February, and chances are no-one in the West would have batted an eyelid. "Putin being Putin" is probably the most we'd have heard from any heads of state, and life would have carried on more or less as before for everyone bar those engaged in the relatively limited civil war. But no, he decided it'd be a far better idea to send thousands of conscripts and geriatric weaponry into Ukraine as if he was living out one of wettest dreams.

But hey, let's say you got the negotiator's job, Ncdjd2 - what would you put on the table as a first offer to bring an end to the conflict by the end of the month?
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Re: Anyone still glued to this?

#65

Post by knownunknown »

CelticRambler wrote: Thu Sep 22, 2022 7:05 pm And what were they, those red lines? Because there aren't any mentioned in the linked article - only a comment that Putin didn't say what he wanted from the West.
A neutral Ukraine that didn’t have offensive missiles. A neutral Ukraine was better for everyone as it avoided further militarisation of borders. Everyone except the arms industry*.

“ Chomsky told us that it “should be clear that the (Russian) invasion of Ukraine has no (moral) justification.” He compared it to the US invasion of Iraq, seeing it as an example of “supreme international crime.” With this moral question settled, Chomsky believes that the main ‘background’ of this war, a factor that is missing in mainstream media coverage, is “NATO expansion”.
“This is not just my opinion,” said Chomsky, “it is the opinion of every high-level US official in the diplomatic services who has any familiarity with Russia and Eastern Europe. This goes back to George Kennan and, in the 1990s, Reagan’s ambassador Jack Matlock, including the current director of the CIA; in fact, just everybody who knows anything has been warning Washington that it is reckless and provocative to ignore Russia’s very clear and explicit red lines.”

Here is an article from AP but Putin’s red lines have been explicit for decades. https://apnews.com/article/europe-russi ... f940efeb18
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isha
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Re: Anyone still glued to this?

#66

Post by isha »

CelticRambler wrote: Thu Sep 22, 2022 7:05 pm

But hey, let's say you got the negotiator's job,...- what would you put on the table as a first offer to bring an end to the conflict by the end of the month?
I would offer to draw back the NATO front line.

I know that seems like capitulation but I can only see horrible attrition otherwise at best, or nuclear deployment at worst.

I've a friend in Eastern Europe who is horrified at my opinion because he and many like him want Putin routed. I can't see that happening. Unless he is taken out. I'm in favour of that as an option too.

If he doesn't stop the war in response to guaranteed withdrawal of the NATO flank, then I would have to rethink. But no more proxy war between US and Russia in Ukraine, using other people for fodder. Let them take it to each others home turf if they will not make peace.
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765489

Re: Anyone still glued to this?

#67

Post by 765489 »

The players in this are America and Russia. These are the parties that potentially could resolve this conflict quickly but they won't talk to each other. Without these parties sitting down and resolving their differences over security there will not be peace and people will continue to die and the risk of further spread of this conflict continues to simmer.

To say Russia's weapons are heaps of scrap and not lethal is just rubbish. They have the most advanced air defence system of any army, according to a current US general serving in the army. People need to realise that bullshit posted on twitter about their armed forces is that bullshit.

What is your solution CR ?
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Re: Anyone still glued to this?

#68

Post by knownunknown »

Ncdjd2 wrote: Thu Sep 22, 2022 7:40 pm The players in this are America and Russia. These are the parties that potentially could resolve this conflict quickly but they won't talk to each other. Without these parties sitting down and resolving their differences over security there will not be peace and people will continue to die and the risk of further spread of this conflict continues to simmer.
Was just reading a guardian article that also says this.

“ The Biden administration’s response to Russia’s quest for meaningful western concessions and security guarantees was tepid and evasive. Putin then clearly decided to escalate matters. Washington’s attempt to make Ukraine a Nato political and military pawn (even absent the country’s formal membership in the alliance) may end up costing the Ukrainian people dearly.”

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... ia-ukraine
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Re: Anyone still glued to this?

#69

Post by Del.Monte »

Where's 765489 gone?
'no more blah blah blah'
Guburnor
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Re: Anyone still glued to this?

#70

Post by Guburnor »

Del.Monte wrote: Thu Sep 22, 2022 8:38 pm Where's 765489 gone?
Account deactivated by his own request because he wanted to take time off from getting too worked up about current geopolitical affairs. He asked to wish everybody well if anybody queried his departure, and says he may be back at some stage.

Disappointed to see him leave, but not much I can do!
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Re: Anyone still glued to this?

#71

Post by knownunknown »

Guburnor wrote: Thu Sep 22, 2022 9:12 pm Account deactivated by his own request because he wanted to take time off from getting too worked up about current geopolitical affairs. He asked to wish everybody well if anybody queried his departure, and says he may be back at some stage.

Disappointed to see him leave, but not much I can do!
He’ll be missed.
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Re: Anyone still glued to this?

#72

Post by Del.Monte »

Any word on Alla Pugacheva, the Russian pop icon who who spoke out against the war? Are there really no other 'personalities' in Russia prepared to speak out? A rotten rogue State populated by people no better than their rotten corrupt leaders and they deserve what they get but why does the rest of the world have to be involved?

https://www.scmp.com/news/world/russia- ... gn=3192942
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CelticRambler
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Re: Anyone still glued to this?

#73

Post by CelticRambler »

isha wrote: Thu Sep 22, 2022 7:33 pm I would offer to draw back the NATO front line.
What NATO front line? Are you saying that Sweden and Finland should withdraw their applications to join the organisation? If so, what other countries should also cancel their membership to assuage Putin. Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, maybe? Poland, Bulgaria and Romania too, why not?

And in what way would any of these pulling out of NATO be likely change Putin's decision to send his goons to round up the poorest ethnic minorities in eastern Russia so as to pour a few hundred thousand "Russians" into Ukraine's sovereign territory (complete with voting rights in all future referendums)?
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isha
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Re: Anyone still glued to this?

#74

Post by isha »

Just as the era of the USSR came and went as an anachronistic manifestation of regional power, perhaps NATO should be seen as another anachronistic old beast that lived too long. It is a military alliance, a very powerful one, that benefits above all armaments manufacturers and war mongers. Countries in Europe would cooperate in defence issues with or without it. The USA would provide support to Europe in defence matters, with or without it. But NATO rubbing it's flank up against Russia, with installations, armaments, drills etc was always going to be trouble.
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Re: Anyone still glued to this?

#75

Post by Hairy-Joe »

Don't forget that Eastern Europeans over the past 30 years have seen a massive benefit from the EU and the free market that it brings. They also remember the oppression, secret police, disappearances, stifled free speech that Russia and the Soviets imposed behind the Iron Curtain. They see the current conflict as a "line in the sand" in the potential return to the Russians ruling Eastern Europe.

As for the behaviour of the Russian soldiers in Bucha, etc. That re-enforces the notion that it's territory Russia wants, not liberate people. Russia has form on this. Look at the mass rape the Russians did in Eastern Europe at the end of WW2
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