Anyone still glued to this?

[knownunknown]

He's a very clinical presenter and doesn't mince his words and yes I would say he is pro Russia, but still, alot of Ukrainians follow the likes of Rybar. Better than the coverage on RTE anyway. ( PS the second half was the best ). Most of this is unpalatable to most people as it makes a joke out of what we are being fed in the main stream media. But should not be ignored for that reason.

I have a big interest in military conflicts, but I'll try to stick to the farming and trees in future.

That doesn’t mean farming posts exclusively. I don’t think anyones telling you to shut up or anything. I like your posts there are some things I hadn’t even heard of and everything checks out to me when you give factual details so please continue.

I’ve noticed a change in tone in the media recently regarding the whole thing. For a while it was a bit like that CNN graphic in front of a burning petrol station that read “fiery, but mostly peaceful protests”.

[CelticRambler]

He's a very clinical presenter and doesn't mince his words... Most of this is unpalatable to most people as it makes a joke out of what we are being fed in the main stream media. But should not be ignored for that reason.

Nah. It should be ignored because most of his dots just don't join up. His analysis of the numbers of casualties on each side of the front line is all over the place and completely at odds with documented reality; and he's swallowed the same propaganda about the 300000 recently mobilised Russians with "previous military experience" when there are thousands of them known to have never handled a gun before, and thousands more know to have only ever been allowed shoot six rounds in their entire military service (back in the 80s and 70s )

What I've been struck by this last couple of weeks (which flows directly from previous reports coming from Russian sources, not any form of "mainstream media") is the unrelenting destruction of wave after wave after wave of conscripts, particularly in and around Bakhmut. It makes a mockery of people like Berletic dismissing the reports of high Russian casulaties when you can literally see and count them being killed in their tens and hundreds ... and then listen to some poor sod phone his mother and say that out of his group of 120 only 5 have made it back alive.

We'll see, over the next few weeks, how yerman's analysis holds up. He says the situation is at a stalemate, based entirely on the fact that the front lines haven't moved very much since the Kherson capituation. Funny that. All the analysts I put any faith in say that Ukraine is biding their time, using long-range weapons to kill wave after wave of Russians from a distance while they rest up the majority of their troops. In the meantime, they're also whittling away the Russian stashes of fuel and ammunition as part of their preparation for a fresh, well-coordinated and brutal offensive as soon as the time is right.

[KHD]

That doesn’t mean farming posts exclusively. I don’t think anyones telling you to shut up or anything. I like your posts there are some things I hadn’t even heard of and everything checks out to me when you give factual details so please continue.

I’ve noticed a change in tone in the media recently regarding the whole thing. For a while it was a bit like that CNN graphic in front of a burning petrol station that read “fiery, but mostly peaceful protests”.

This conflict is not something that can really be discussed in any sort of objective way. There is too much rubbish going around and if you try to refute the rubbish you start ruffling up people's hackles. I have my views on this conflict, the current way its progressing and how it will play out, which are completely at odds with most posters here. There is no point in wasting my time on it on this platform as its a small forum and for the sake of the forum I'll let ye all get on with it. I'll continue to post in the funny section though.

[Del.Monte]

Celtic and Berletic - two sides of the same coin. CR will have us believe that Russians are drinking the anti-freeze from their tanks next - the old line trotted out during the USSR's 'special military operation in Afghanistan.

[KHD]

Celtic and Berletic - two sides of the same coin. CR will have us believe that Russians are drinking the anti-freeze from their tanks next - the old line trotted out during the USSR's 'special military operation in Afghanistan.

Well the way it is, this conflict is going to hit home to us all here and in the rest of the EU in a very serious way make no mistake about it.

[Del.Monte]

Well the way it is, this conflict is going to hit home to us all here and in the rest of the EU in a very serious way make no mistake about it.

It already has, from simple things like changing the population demographic of Ireland in an unsustainable way, to ordinary people like me not being able decide whether to spend money and what to spend it on. I have been building up my 'Zombie Apocalypse' stores again which had been depleted as the worst of Covid died down; my creativity has fallen away drastically since Covid and now this existential threat....of course that could be down to senile decay.

[Hairy-Joe]

I've several thoughts on this.

First is that I think Ukraine is playing the clever long game. They appear to be holding ground, wearing the Russians down in an area and then moving in when Russia runs out of fight in an area. Look at how they handled Kerson. They didn't rush in, they wore down the Russians and move when Russia couldn't support their troops.

Ukraine also appears to be trying to cut the Russian supplies. That's is in conjunction with the "wear them down" tactic and it appears to be working.

Now, what's puzzling me is how bad the Russian tactics and equipment is. Russia was always touted as a fantastic army and had some fantastic generals. Is it all a paper tiger or is it that the military leadership is hobbled by Putin?

Finally, with regarding the NATO/EU support for Ukraine. I'm wondering if they are supplying enough support to stop Ukraine loosing but not supplying enough for a quick, decisive win? Maybe it's the cynic in me?

Personally, I hope Ukraine wins as Russia has been causing far too much agro in other countries and can't accept that the USSR is dead and countries can forget their own path.

[KHD]

A couple of reports this morning which back up Brian Berletic's analysis on the military supply end of things, which he already provided backup himself, these stories are getting more common over the last few days ->

Warehouses of military equipment of NATO countries are empty due to assistance to Ukraine - Polish Ambassador to NATO Tomasz Szatkowski on FM radio station RMF

US Department of Defense spokesman: "The Pentagon is very concerned that Ukrainians are firing at an exorbitant rate, especially in places like Bakhmut, based on the false assumption that ammunition supplies in the West are unlimited."

The price of fighting and helping Kiev will only increase. In addition, there are fears that if the "Ukrainian crisis" continues for a long time, the problems of the American "defense industry" will be revealed. —Bloomberg.

This to me means Nato / the US and the EU are in over their heads and underestimated Russia's military capabilities and resolve in seeing this through. The sanctions have failed and instead of Russia going down the tubes ecomically, they are weathering the storm. The EU on the other hand, is going into recession and companies are moving to the US as what German government officials were giving out about during the week as reported by Politico, saying America is taking advantage of the sanctions at the expense of their so called allies.

We have Von Derr Crazy pushing for a price cap on Russian oil, with Poland and Estonia blocking it as they are not happy with the price of 60 to 70 dollars a barrel and want it reduced to 30 dollars. Hadley Gamble, the former US secretary of the treasury described this proposal as "not only not feasible, I think it's the most ridiculous idea I've ever heard." So Russia will not sell directly with any country that agrees to this but the EU will instead purchase it for a premium price off third countries. Crazy stuff.

On the battlefield ( not social media now ) Ukrainians are getting hammered, the latest example can be seen from reports yesterday of the images of the hospitals overrun with wounded near Bakhmut. Interviews were giving by medical staff in these hospitals and they can't cope with the number of wounded. You can watch as many Ukrop propaganda videos showing video game doctored war scenes, UK intelligence reports, Bellingcat, Kiev independent propoganda stories or videos stolen from the Russian military channels relabed Ukrainian, but the real war on the ground is much different.

Russia is now building up and preparing for a large offensive in Ukraine, with massive supplies of military hardware and manpower, all Nato can do is scramble together insufficient and ineffective weapons systems and supplies and all the EU can do is pump billions, which they will never get back, and cobble together their 9th round of sanctions which Russia will just laugh at but will inevitably lead to a quickening of the recession of Europe which we are seeing now in Germany and the UK.

This is going to be a complete catastrophe, not only for Ukraine as a country but also for the EU. Eventually the West will walk away from Ukraine when they can no longer keep up the current facade due to monetary and the realisation that they cannot win a war with Russia.

[Setanta]

A couple of reports this morning which back up Brian Berletic's analysis on the military supply end of things, which he already provided backup himself, these stories are getting more common over the last few days ->

Warehouses of military equipment of NATO countries are empty due to assistance to Ukraine - Polish Ambassador to NATO Tomasz Szatkowski on FM radio station RMF

US Department of Defense spokesman: "The Pentagon is very concerned that Ukrainians are firing at an exorbitant rate, especially in places like Bakhmut, based on the false assumption that ammunition supplies in the West are unlimited."

The price of fighting and helping Kiev will only increase. In addition, there are fears that if the "Ukrainian crisis" continues for a long time, the problems of the American "defense industry" will be revealed. —Bloomberg.

This to me means Nato / the US and the EU are in over their heads and underestimated Russia's military capabilities and resolve in seeing this through. The sanctions have failed and instead of Russia going down the tubes ecomically, they are weathering the storm. The EU on the other hand, is going into recession and companies are moving to the US as what German government officials were giving out about during the week as reported by Politico, saying America is taking advantage of the sanctions at the expense of their so called allies.

We have Von Derr Crazy pushing for a price cap on Russian oil, with Poland and Estonia blocking it as they are not happy with the price of 60 to 70 dollars a barrel and want it reduced to 30 dollars. Hadley Gamble, the former US secretary of the treasury described this proposal as "not only not feasible, I think it's the most ridiculous idea I've ever heard." So Russia will not sell directly with any country that agrees to this but the EU will instead purchase it for a premium price off third countries. Crazy stuff.

On the battlefield ( not social media now ) Ukrainians are getting hammered, the latest example can be seen from reports yesterday of the images of the hospitals overrun with wounded near Bakhmut. Interviews were giving by medical staff in these hospitals and they can't cope with the number of wounded. You can watch as many Ukrop propaganda videos showing video game doctored war scenes, UK intelligence reports, Bellingcat, Kiev independent propoganda stories or videos stolen from the Russian military channels relabed Ukrainian, but the real war on the ground is much different.

Russia is now building up and preparing for a large offensive in Ukraine, with massive supplies of military hardware and manpower, all Nato can do is scramble together insufficient and ineffective weapons systems and supplies and all the EU can do is pump billions, which they will never get back, and cobble together their 9th round of sanctions which Russia will just laugh at but will inevitably lead to a quickening of the recession of Europe which we are seeing now in Germany and the UK.

This is going to be a complete catastrophe, not only for Ukraine as a country but also for the EU. Eventually the West will walk away from Ukraine when they can no longer keep up the current facade due to monetary and the realisation that they cannot win a war with Russia.

Would have taught the NATO/yanks etc,don't particularly need to beat Russia?
In that they can tie Russia down into an extensive,endless ground war,that will burn through resources, credibility and eventually become extremely unpopular at home.......a few hundred farm labourers in the north run rings around British army for bones of a generation,and could never be fully pinned down,russia eventually (like the yanks) had to withdraw from Afghanistan without a comprehensive victory


The notion,yanks/eu ever care about Ukrainians,was shallow the min they offered to spirit zelensky away on day one,.....they couldn't drag Russia into a ground war, by been seen to back Isis in syria,but can here

[KHD]

This is going to work out well.

[CelticRambler]

This is going to work out well.

It probably will. I've been wondering when an "independent" third party would decide to step in and provide the Ukrainians with longer-range weapons seeing as the USAmericans weren't responding to that particular call. Now I am surprised that it'd be Boeing, as they're effectively a branch of the US government in all but name, but maybe that's the fudge.

What I was expecting was that one or other of the European arms manufacturers would use the opportunity to show that they can produce and deliver something equivalent to the ATACMS and Saab were making noises about this last week. Maybe that was the gentle provocation the US needed to stop procrastinating.

If (or when) Ukraine gets hold of some longer-range missiles, all those just-out-of-reach Russian stockpiles and marshalling yards will be wiped out very quickly.

[KHD]

Would have taught the NATO/yanks etc,don't particularly need to beat Russia?
In that they can tie Russia down into an extensive,endless ground war,that will burn through resources, credibility and eventually become extremely unpopular at home.......a few hundred farm labourers in the north run rings around British army for bones of a generation,and could never be fully pinned down,russia eventually (like the yanks) had to withdraw from Afghanistan without a comprehensive victory


The notion,yanks/eu ever care about Ukrainians,was shallow the min they offered to spirit zelensky away on day one,.....they couldn't drag Russia into a ground war, by been seen to back Isis in syria,but can here

This was the idea, degrade Russia' military and economy but I don't see how any of that has worked. What I see is that Nato and the US's weapons stockpiles are being degraded to dangerously low levels. Russia seems to have a better production model for replenishing it's weaponry while the US defence contractors are much slower in manufacturing. Russian arms and heavy weapons manufacturers are owned by the state, whereas US weapons manufacturers are private companies which need to make a profit, so ramping up production cannot be turned on overnight. I suspect this is one of the lessons the Pentagon has learned in all of this.

The Russians are hardening their stance on Ukraine as far as I can see and to the normal Russian, the mantra they've been hearing for years that the West wants to destroy Russia is now more or less confirmed to them so I don't see any chance of uprisings in Russia supporting Ukrainians other than a few opposition groups. The images of Russian soldiers being executed after being captured and the constant tactic of purposely shelling civilians in Donesk and over the border in Belograd in Russia has put paid to any lingering support for Ukraine by normal Russian people.

The northern conflict was not a military win by the provos, it was a political settlement ultimately and a demilitarisation of the conflict. This to me will eventually happen to Ukraine, but will involve the partition of the country. Russia is right at the border with Ukraine so its in a better position than as America are in say Syria, which they are in the process of getting booted out of thanks to Iran and Turkey hitting the Kurds from each side and Turkey blowing up their oil fields that the yanks have the Kurds protecting.

[CelticRambler]

A couple of reports this morning which back up Brian Berletic's analysis on the military supply end of things, which he already provided backup himself, these stories are getting more common over the last few days ->

Warehouses of military equipment of NATO countries are empty due to assistance to Ukraine - Polish Ambassador to NATO Tomasz Szatkowski on FM radio station RMF

US Department of Defense spokesman: "The Pentagon is very concerned that Ukrainians are firing at an exorbitant rate, especially in places like Bakhmut, based on the false assumption that ammunition supplies in the West are unlimited."

This is characteristic of the stuff that guys like Berletic and the retired Colonel come out with - but it's old news. It was already being discussed (even on boards.ie! ) back in March. So much of what those lads come out with is based on really out-dated material ... rather like the Russian artillery, who regularly shell their own troops because they didn't know they'd moved to a new location.

[KHD]

This is characteristic of the stuff that guys like Berletic and the retired Colonel come out with - but it's old news. It was already being discussed (even on boards.ie! ) back in March. So much of what those lads come out with is based on really out-dated material ... rather like the Russian artillery, who regularly shell their own troops because they didn't know they'd moved to a new location.

This is not old news, these quotes were made by a Pentagon spokesman this morning and a Polish Nato ambassador. This is quite different to idiots spouting crap from out of their asses based on notions and incorrect information.

As for the Russians shelling themselves... yeah right.

[CelticRambler]

The northern conflict was not a military win by the provos, it was a political settlement ultimately and a demilitarisation of the conflict. This to me will eventually happen to Ukraine, but will involve the partition of the country.

Every war is, in the end, a political settlement. Until the next time. The provos engaged in (para)military action to drag the British Government to the negotiating table, and when things reached a stalemate, they were quick to remind the British that the problem was not going to be resolved by sitting around a table yet never actually agreeing anything. Hence the Canary Wharf bombing.

As for Ukraine, there's no reason at all for it to remain partitioned, because Mother/Father Russia has nothing to offer the people of the Donbass region that a Westernised Urkaine can't match. For the last eight years, the people there have put up with the Russians lobbing shells at the Ukraininas, and being shelled in return; but next year and forever after, they'll have the example of their family, friends and acquaintances in places like Kharkiv and Kherson (and Crimea) having got rid of the Russians and being all the better for it.

No doubt it'll be a hard slog for the Ukrainians, but as Russia has no claim on any part of Ukraine's territory, there's no reason for them not to be pushed right back to their own border and kept there for the rest of the century to lick their wounds and try to keep the Georgians and Chechens and Kazakhs at bay.

[KHD]

As for Ukraine, there's no reason at all for it to remain partitioned, because Mother/Father Russia has nothing to offer the people of the Donbass region that a Westernised Urkaine can't match. For the last eight years, the people there have put up with the Russians lobbing shells at the Ukraininas, and being shelled in return; but next year and forever after, they'll have the example of their family, friends and acquaintances in places like Kharkiv and Kherson (and Crimea) having got rid of the Russians and being all the better for it.

No doubt it'll be a hard slog for the Ukrainians, but as Russia has no claim on any part of Ukraine's territory, there's no reason for them not to be pushed right back to their own border and kept there for the rest of the century to lick their wounds and try to keep the Georgians and Chechens and Kazakhs at bay.

I think you will find CR, that after the Ukrainian campaign of indiscriminately murdering civilians in these areas and the residents of Donbass having to live in basements for 8 years and the banning by the Ukrainian parliament of their native tongue, residents in Donbass want to be a part of Ukraine as much as I want to be an Iranian.

[Del.Monte]

And some simpleton on Twitter wants advance notice so that they can leave Europe before the nukes start flying. Does the idiot really think the rest of the world will escape from a nuclear war? Too much time on their Xbox ....

[isha]

I think before any of us get too convinced about how right we personally are now on the subject of the war in Ukraine, it's worth casting an eye over how very wrong all of us were not 10 months ago

viewtopic.php?f=50&t=1158

[Del.Monte]

I think before any of us get too convinced about how right we personally are now on the subject of the war in Ukraine, it's worth casting an eye over how very wrong all of us were not 10 months ago

viewtopic.php?f=50&t=1158

How right you are, it's easy for us all to make predictions and I was wrong about the invasion but at least I was right about the West needing to stay out of it.
viewtopic.php?p=21853#p21853

[KHD]

I think before any of us get too convinced about how right we personally are now on the subject of the war in Ukraine, it's worth casting an eye over how very wrong all of us were not 10 months ago

viewtopic.php?f=50&t=1158

Yes I was completely wrong about that and will admit I'm completely wrong about current events if it turns out to be the case. I've no problem admitting when I'm wrong, it doesn't bother me either way. This is the way of the world but to not speak for fear you will be wrong on something in my view is alot worse. To leave commentary on incidents and situations that have happened that are being twisted or downright lies should not go unchallenged. I will step away from this thread if that is what you all want or leave the forum completely I don't really care at this stage.

[isha]

How right you are, it's easy for us all to make predictions and I was wrong about the invasion but at least I was right about the West needing to stay out of it.
viewtopic.php?p=21853#p21853

I think it is interesting that some of the posters that one might possibly have considered borderline conspiracy theorists were closer to the mark than most.

This has happened with the pandemic too. I found I had to revise opinions significantly as time went on - and I vividly recall writing a scathing post elsewhere absolutely ripping up the "Covid minimisers". I was pretty rotten, actually, the whole schtick of not caring for elderly people etc. As it happens, I was wrong, and the people I thought were monsters, who said the young and healthy should get on with life and build herd immunity, were right, and have been proven correct now that we have whole swathes of very young children with comprised immunity due to lack of exposure, and a large number of people whose serious illnesses were not diagnosed in time due to lockdowns etc.

So, it's my experience that it's worth remembering that no matter how correct I think I am about anything I could be talking rubbish.

That's not going to stop me talking, mind you, because that's what humans do.

[isha]

Yes I was completely wrong about that and will admit I'm completely wrong about current events if it turns out to be the case. I've no problem admitting when I'm wrong, it doesn't bother me either way. This is the way of the world but to not speak for fear you will be wrong on something in my view is alot worse. To leave commentary on incidents and situations that have happened that are being twisted or downright lies should not go unchallenged. I will step away from this thread if that is what you all want or leave the forum completely I don't really care at this stage.

It never crossed my mind that anyone should step away from the thread, or not express an opinion. I am happy to listen to any opinion. Or not bother listening to anyone either, that works for me too None of this is personal.

[Setanta]

This is going to work out well.

Is this not an inevitably really, continued escalation until one side or other backs down or ends in stalemate....next logical step would be for NATO and co to begin to locate nuclear armaments there,or Ukraine make their own?


One way or the other,it's hard to see a nuclear attack not occuring at this stage,which the whole world will end up paying for

[knownunknown]

Is this not an inevitably really, continued escalation until one side or other backs down or ends in stalemate....next logical step would be for NATO and co to begin to locate nuclear armaments there,or Ukraine make their own?


One way or the other,it's hard to see a nuclear attack not occuring at this stage,which the whole world will end up paying for

I bet this never happens and the west and nato never send missiles to Ukraine with which they can strike Russia. There’s a bold prediction for the thread! I think they’ve made this clear already umpteen times. The Us knew about this invasion before anyone else and was warning the world about it. The time to equip the Ukrainians was then.

[KHD]

I'm just going to end this by saying war now is like a football match, each side is whooping on the latest lump of steel or titanium that will kill and maim people. Fooking idiots while their politicians do nothing but further inflame the situation.. People in the west including our lovely little island are openly celebrating young men that are from both Ukrainian and Russia being slaughtered like cattle.

Soldiers are dying of sepsis in Bakhmut due to not being able to be evacuated. Women and children are being blown to pieces from artillery shells hitting their homes. Old people have no electricity, heat or water. Young people who should be out enjoying themselves and getting on with their lives are now a generation who have seen real war and the terrible consequences of it and will not be the better of it in later life.

All because of countries foreign policies that the proponents of, live in relative comfort and security. Where one side will not leave the other alone and bury their differences and have a relationship based on mutual respect for each other and guarantee the other that we will not seek to destroy or dismantle each other's countries.

We have learned nothing from history. The same thing that happened in world war 1 we are seeing again. This time though the disturbing visuals of people celebrating the latest kill and dehumanisation of the enemy as nothing better than animals I find hard to take and put up with.