Anyone still glued to this?

[knownunknown]

I see the war hawks over on planks have finally realised that Ukraine lack the weapons to attack Russia in the same way it can strike Ukraine and are calling for indiscriminate bombing of Russian cities. All in the pursuit of good and righteousness.

[KHD]

Apparently 50 of 70 missiles were intercepted, who knows the reality, but Lviv is without power, Kyiv without power or water, over half of the country’s infrastructure destroyed and Moldova experiencing mass blackouts despite not being hit. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-63729427. Those English amraams must be helping.

Why would you even attempt to repair anything It’s just going to be destroyed again?

Yeah I'd say alot of the missiles were taken out by the electrical grid.

Anyway I know I've been doing parody posts for most of the day but there is a message in each of them.

The power grid is on the brink of collapse. With each salvo of missiles hitting this infrastructure it is getting more degraded with each strike, and getting more difficult to repair. Remember alot of the power grid in Ukraine is inherited from the old Soviet Union. Are parts available for these systems ? One thing I was asking myself this morning. But they will try and repair these as it is critical to water, heat for the ordinary citizens of the country. At this stage I can only imagine alot of people will be fed up with all of this and think of getting out of the country for a few months anyway. The EU has no answer for any of this, from what I see there is no discussion within the EU on how to manage the influx of potentially up 2, 3 up to 8 million refugees. Nothing.

As for the AD systems, there are unverified reports on telegram channels ( with photo but still I class as unverified ) that one of the AD missiles that hit a residential building in Kiev had the fragments of a rocket from a NASAM system. Blamed on the Russians anyway. It had the lettering "LIFT" on the fragment which corresponds with what's on the engine enclosure on the Rocket. This system will be "Marketed" as having a 100% success rate as it is a new system ( even though it's been out a while, there are only a few of the new variants available ), there will be no negative responses on this system as it will hurt sales of this system. So we really won't know how effective or ineffective it will be. But the pattern is the same, like the HIMARS and the Turkish drones, these will either be eventually destroyed or in the case of the HIMARS system, the Russian's are getting better at intercepting the projectiles out of them, which is making them less effective on the battlefield.

The Moldovan NPP went into auto shutdown mode as there was such a draw on electricity apparently from parts of Ukraine when the power system shutdown after the missile attacks. Maybe someone with a better knowledge of this can explain this process.

[KHD]

I see the war hawks over on planks have finally realised that Ukraine lack the weapons to attack Russia in the same way it can strike Ukraine and are calling for indiscriminate bombing of Russian cities. All in the pursuit of good and righteousness.

It has to be the most dumbest grouping of people I've ever had the unfortunate of reading through. I get a pain in my head reading through that garbage. There is no chance you could have any sort of reasoned discussion on any of this on there, or even learn anything. It's an echo chamber inhabited by idiots who don't know the first thing about Ukraine or Russia. All they know is how to post rubbish from extremely dubious twitter accounts and gang up on the latest putinbot that seems to join every now and then and spout off the same rubbish as the lads spewing shite about Russia do. Two sides of the same coin, but as silly as the other.

[Setanta]

I see the war hawks over on planks have finally realised that Ukraine lack the weapons to attack Russia in the same way it can strike Ukraine and are calling for indiscriminate bombing of Russian cities. All in the pursuit of good and righteousness.

To best my knowledge,the yanks held back long-range missiles capable of hitting deep into russian territory,for the rather obvious reason,Ukraine would do to Russia what Russia is doing to em.....

Leading to an eventual inevitably

[CelticRambler]

At this stage I can only imagine alot of people will be fed up with all of this and think of getting out of the country for a few months anyway. The EU has no answer for any of this ...

So you don't think that the EU sending thousands of (industrial sized) generators to Ukraine is an immediate and well-targetted answer? That's on top of the parts and expertise that has already been sent (including contributions from Ireland).

Russia is driving the modernisation (and westernisation) of every aspect of Ukrainian society and infrastructure at a faster pace than we've seen in any other European country in the last hundred years. At this rate, they'll be fully aligned with all EU standards by the time the conflict ends.

[knownunknown]

So you don't think that the EU sending thousands of (industrial sized) generators to Ukraine is an immediate and well-targetted answer? That's on top of the parts and expertise that has already been sent (including contributions from Ireland).

Russia is driving the modernisation (and westernisation) of every aspect of Ukrainian society and infrastructure at a faster pace than we've seen in any other European country in the last hundred years. At this rate, they'll be fully aligned with all EU standards by the time the conflict ends.

This thread certainly wouldn’t have any positivity without you CR , but how long would a process like that take even when not being bombarded by shelling?

[KHD]

So you don't think that the EU sending thousands of (industrial sized) generators to Ukraine is an immediate and well-targetted answer? That's on top of the parts and expertise that has already been sent (including contributions from Ireland).

Russia is driving the modernisation (and westernisation) of every aspect of Ukrainian society and infrastructure at a faster pace than we've seen in any other European country in the last hundred years. At this rate, they'll be fully aligned with all EU standards by the time the conflict ends.

Most of the big cities are in total darkness, I doubt generators, even industrial sized will in any way make up for the current energy grid ? How secure is the fuel to power these generators ? I see videos in Kiev and other cities where there are queues of cars at service stations.

I did read some Ukrainian people talk about creating energy islands, where they configure their electrical grid to be standalone systems based in certain regions that would withstand some of the problems they are having now with the missile attacks, I don't know much about this but found it an interesting theory thats apparently doable.

That second point, that doesn't make sense. You need a stable power system for industry. Ukraine had a really good heavy industrial base until the Russians invaded and blew it all up. The country is being sent back into the dark ages, there are no positives in any of this.

[CelticRambler]

This thread certainly wouldn’t have any positivity without you CR , but how long would a process like that take even when not being bombarded by shelling?

Two days.

Or one from where I'm working at the moment.

[CelticRambler]

I did read some Ukrainian people talk about creating energy islands, where they configure their electrical grid to be standalone systems based in certain regions that would withstand some of the problems they are having now with the missile attacks, I don't know much about this but found it an interesting theory thats apparently doable.

That's exactly it. They are replicating for civilians the same de-centralised/disseminated supplies that the military has been using since February. Ukrainian military, obviously - the Russians are still desperately dependent on centralised "hub-and-spoke" type operations, which is what's made them so vulnerable to Ukrainian attacks. In the short term (very short term) these "regions" are tiny - individual buildings and villages - but no different to the "village" of 5000 people that my festival acquaintances run "off grid" every year (other not having to worry about quite so many H&S inspections and incomprehensible PRM obligations).

That second point, that doesn't make sense. You need a stable power system for industry. Ukraine had a really good heavy industrial base until the Russians invaded and blew it all up. The country is being sent back into the dark ages, there are no positives in any of this.

Ukraine was working towards being a significant exporter of electrical energy to the rest of Europe, but was held back by its continuing use of legacy Soviet systems (not the Zaporizhzhia NPP, though, which had been so significantly modernised that the Russians couldn't understand how to manage it and had no choice but to keep the Ukrainian engineers alive). The legacy Soviets in the Kremlin have decided that they're going to make the transition much easier for the Ukrainans, so their whole electrical system along with every industry that uses it - just like their weaponry - will be switched over to EU/NATO compatible systems from ... well, right now. That's only going to make the gulf between Ukraine and Soviet Russia ever deeper, with absolutely no prospect of Ukraine ever going back.

[CelticRambler]

FWIW I think I know where the Colonel got that 700,000 figure from: it's the number being reported (on Russian channels) as the target for the next mobilisation. They're not massed on the border because they haven't been called up yet, but if it's even half true, it says a lot that the Kremlin thinks it'll need that many extra bodies to replace/reinforce the missed target of 300,000 that has failed to hold Kharkiv and Kherson, bearing in mind that this 300,000 was needed to replace/reinforce the 200,000 that first invaded AND the 100,000 added during the regular spring conscription.

There are approximately 70,000 conscripts training in Belarus at the moment. With what, no-one knows, as the Russians seem to have borrowed all of Belarus' tanks and missile launchers for use elsewhere. That'll be just enough to hold the front line for another 100 days (not including injuries, surrenders or desertions)

[KHD]

That's exactly it. They are replicating for civilians the same de-centralised/disseminated supplies that the military has been using since February. Ukrainian military, obviously - the Russians are still desperately dependent on centralised "hub-and-spoke" type operations, which is what's made them so vulnerable to Ukrainian attacks. In the short term (very short term) these "regions" are tiny - individual buildings and villages - but no different to the "village" of 5000 people that my festival acquaintances run "off grid" every year (other not having to worry about quite so many H&S inspections and incomprehensible PRM obligations).



Ukraine was working towards being a significant exporter of electrical energy to the rest of Europe, but was held back by its continuing use of legacy Soviet systems (not the Zaporizhzhia NPP, though, which had been so significantly modernised that the Russians couldn't understand how to manage it and had no choice but to keep the Ukrainian engineers alive). The legacy Soviets in the Kremlin have decided that they're going to make the transition much easier for the Ukrainans, so their whole electrical system along with every industry that uses it - just like their weaponry - will be switched over to EU/NATO compatible systems from ... well, right now. That's only going to make the gulf between Ukraine and Soviet Russia ever deeper, with absolutely no prospect of Ukraine ever going back.

I can't agree with the second point. Russia is one of the world leaders at the moment for building nuclear reactors across the world globally.

https://world-nuclear.org/information-l ... dwide.aspx

[KHD]

FWIW I think I know where the Colonel got that 700,000 figure from: it's the number being reported (on Russian channels) as the target for the next mobilisation. They're not massed on the border because they haven't been called up yet, but if it's even half true, it says a lot that the Kremlin thinks it'll need that many extra bodies to replace/reinforce the missed target of 300,000 that has failed to hold Kharkiv and Kherson, bearing in mind that this 300,000 was needed to replace/reinforce the 200,000 that first invaded AND the 100,000 added during the regular spring conscription.

There are approximately 70,000 conscripts training in Belarus at the moment. With what, no-one knows, as the Russians seem to have borrowed all of Belarus' tanks and missile launchers for use elsewhere. That'll be just enough to hold the front line for another 100 days (not including injuries, surrenders or desertions)

There are currently 380,000 ( 80,000 volunteers too ) successfully mobilised plus he is adding the current Russian army strength to that. They are not only being trained in Belarus, but also other locations close to the Ukrainian border with Russia. The conscripts thing you keep peddling is just silly CR, but I won't fall out with you over it, as I said before we will see how all this plays out. I admire your positive vibes in all of this, unfortunately I don't share these.

[KHD]

I've been following this guy since the start of the war in Ukraine, Brian Berletic, former US Marine. Always gives good and detailed analysis on current military and political events in Ukraine in my view.

[Del.Monte]

Depressing old video really. I'm no wiser having watched about half of it and while there's a lot of sense, it's a bit one sided and he comes across as a very pro-Russian.

PS I prefer your farming and trees posts - more please!

[KHD]

Depressing old video really. I'm no wiser having watched about half of it and while there's a lot of sense, it's a bit one sided and he comes across as a very pro-Russian.

PS I prefer your farming and trees posts - more please!

He's a very clinical presenter and doesn't mince his words and yes I would say he is pro Russia, but still, alot of Ukrainians follow the likes of Rybar. Better than the coverage on RTE anyway. ( PS the second half was the best ). Most of this is unpalatable to most people as it makes a joke out of what we are being fed in the main stream media. But should not be ignored for that reason.

I have a big interest in military conflicts, but I'll try to stick to the farming and trees in future.

[knownunknown]

He's a very clinical presenter and doesn't mince his words and yes I would say he is pro Russia, but still, alot of Ukrainians follow the likes of Rybar. Better than the coverage on RTE anyway. ( PS the second half was the best ). Most of this is unpalatable to most people as it makes a joke out of what we are being fed in the main stream media. But should not be ignored for that reason.

I have a big interest in military conflicts, but I'll try to stick to the farming and trees in future.

That doesn’t mean farming posts exclusively. I don’t think anyones telling you to shut up or anything. I like your posts there are some things I hadn’t even heard of and everything checks out to me when you give factual details so please continue.

I’ve noticed a change in tone in the media recently regarding the whole thing. For a while it was a bit like that CNN graphic in front of a burning petrol station that read “fiery, but mostly peaceful protests”.

[CelticRambler]

He's a very clinical presenter and doesn't mince his words... Most of this is unpalatable to most people as it makes a joke out of what we are being fed in the main stream media. But should not be ignored for that reason.

Nah. It should be ignored because most of his dots just don't join up. His analysis of the numbers of casualties on each side of the front line is all over the place and completely at odds with documented reality; and he's swallowed the same propaganda about the 300000 recently mobilised Russians with "previous military experience" when there are thousands of them known to have never handled a gun before, and thousands more know to have only ever been allowed shoot six rounds in their entire military service (back in the 80s and 70s )

What I've been struck by this last couple of weeks (which flows directly from previous reports coming from Russian sources, not any form of "mainstream media") is the unrelenting destruction of wave after wave after wave of conscripts, particularly in and around Bakhmut. It makes a mockery of people like Berletic dismissing the reports of high Russian casulaties when you can literally see and count them being killed in their tens and hundreds ... and then listen to some poor sod phone his mother and say that out of his group of 120 only 5 have made it back alive.

We'll see, over the next few weeks, how yerman's analysis holds up. He says the situation is at a stalemate, based entirely on the fact that the front lines haven't moved very much since the Kherson capituation. Funny that. All the analysts I put any faith in say that Ukraine is biding their time, using long-range weapons to kill wave after wave of Russians from a distance while they rest up the majority of their troops. In the meantime, they're also whittling away the Russian stashes of fuel and ammunition as part of their preparation for a fresh, well-coordinated and brutal offensive as soon as the time is right.

[KHD]

That doesn’t mean farming posts exclusively. I don’t think anyones telling you to shut up or anything. I like your posts there are some things I hadn’t even heard of and everything checks out to me when you give factual details so please continue.

I’ve noticed a change in tone in the media recently regarding the whole thing. For a while it was a bit like that CNN graphic in front of a burning petrol station that read “fiery, but mostly peaceful protests”.

This conflict is not something that can really be discussed in any sort of objective way. There is too much rubbish going around and if you try to refute the rubbish you start ruffling up people's hackles. I have my views on this conflict, the current way its progressing and how it will play out, which are completely at odds with most posters here. There is no point in wasting my time on it on this platform as its a small forum and for the sake of the forum I'll let ye all get on with it. I'll continue to post in the funny section though.

[Del.Monte]

Celtic and Berletic - two sides of the same coin. CR will have us believe that Russians are drinking the anti-freeze from their tanks next - the old line trotted out during the USSR's 'special military operation in Afghanistan.

[KHD]

Celtic and Berletic - two sides of the same coin. CR will have us believe that Russians are drinking the anti-freeze from their tanks next - the old line trotted out during the USSR's 'special military operation in Afghanistan.

Well the way it is, this conflict is going to hit home to us all here and in the rest of the EU in a very serious way make no mistake about it.

[Del.Monte]

Well the way it is, this conflict is going to hit home to us all here and in the rest of the EU in a very serious way make no mistake about it.

It already has, from simple things like changing the population demographic of Ireland in an unsustainable way, to ordinary people like me not being able decide whether to spend money and what to spend it on. I have been building up my 'Zombie Apocalypse' stores again which had been depleted as the worst of Covid died down; my creativity has fallen away drastically since Covid and now this existential threat....of course that could be down to senile decay.

[Hairy-Joe]

I've several thoughts on this.

First is that I think Ukraine is playing the clever long game. They appear to be holding ground, wearing the Russians down in an area and then moving in when Russia runs out of fight in an area. Look at how they handled Kerson. They didn't rush in, they wore down the Russians and move when Russia couldn't support their troops.

Ukraine also appears to be trying to cut the Russian supplies. That's is in conjunction with the "wear them down" tactic and it appears to be working.

Now, what's puzzling me is how bad the Russian tactics and equipment is. Russia was always touted as a fantastic army and had some fantastic generals. Is it all a paper tiger or is it that the military leadership is hobbled by Putin?

Finally, with regarding the NATO/EU support for Ukraine. I'm wondering if they are supplying enough support to stop Ukraine loosing but not supplying enough for a quick, decisive win? Maybe it's the cynic in me?

Personally, I hope Ukraine wins as Russia has been causing far too much agro in other countries and can't accept that the USSR is dead and countries can forget their own path.

[KHD]

A couple of reports this morning which back up Brian Berletic's analysis on the military supply end of things, which he already provided backup himself, these stories are getting more common over the last few days ->

Warehouses of military equipment of NATO countries are empty due to assistance to Ukraine - Polish Ambassador to NATO Tomasz Szatkowski on FM radio station RMF

US Department of Defense spokesman: "The Pentagon is very concerned that Ukrainians are firing at an exorbitant rate, especially in places like Bakhmut, based on the false assumption that ammunition supplies in the West are unlimited."

The price of fighting and helping Kiev will only increase. In addition, there are fears that if the "Ukrainian crisis" continues for a long time, the problems of the American "defense industry" will be revealed. —Bloomberg.

This to me means Nato / the US and the EU are in over their heads and underestimated Russia's military capabilities and resolve in seeing this through. The sanctions have failed and instead of Russia going down the tubes ecomically, they are weathering the storm. The EU on the other hand, is going into recession and companies are moving to the US as what German government officials were giving out about during the week as reported by Politico, saying America is taking advantage of the sanctions at the expense of their so called allies.

We have Von Derr Crazy pushing for a price cap on Russian oil, with Poland and Estonia blocking it as they are not happy with the price of 60 to 70 dollars a barrel and want it reduced to 30 dollars. Hadley Gamble, the former US secretary of the treasury described this proposal as "not only not feasible, I think it's the most ridiculous idea I've ever heard." So Russia will not sell directly with any country that agrees to this but the EU will instead purchase it for a premium price off third countries. Crazy stuff.

On the battlefield ( not social media now ) Ukrainians are getting hammered, the latest example can be seen from reports yesterday of the images of the hospitals overrun with wounded near Bakhmut. Interviews were giving by medical staff in these hospitals and they can't cope with the number of wounded. You can watch as many Ukrop propaganda videos showing video game doctored war scenes, UK intelligence reports, Bellingcat, Kiev independent propoganda stories or videos stolen from the Russian military channels relabed Ukrainian, but the real war on the ground is much different.

Russia is now building up and preparing for a large offensive in Ukraine, with massive supplies of military hardware and manpower, all Nato can do is scramble together insufficient and ineffective weapons systems and supplies and all the EU can do is pump billions, which they will never get back, and cobble together their 9th round of sanctions which Russia will just laugh at but will inevitably lead to a quickening of the recession of Europe which we are seeing now in Germany and the UK.

This is going to be a complete catastrophe, not only for Ukraine as a country but also for the EU. Eventually the West will walk away from Ukraine when they can no longer keep up the current facade due to monetary and the realisation that they cannot win a war with Russia.

[Setanta]

A couple of reports this morning which back up Brian Berletic's analysis on the military supply end of things, which he already provided backup himself, these stories are getting more common over the last few days ->

Warehouses of military equipment of NATO countries are empty due to assistance to Ukraine - Polish Ambassador to NATO Tomasz Szatkowski on FM radio station RMF

US Department of Defense spokesman: "The Pentagon is very concerned that Ukrainians are firing at an exorbitant rate, especially in places like Bakhmut, based on the false assumption that ammunition supplies in the West are unlimited."

The price of fighting and helping Kiev will only increase. In addition, there are fears that if the "Ukrainian crisis" continues for a long time, the problems of the American "defense industry" will be revealed. —Bloomberg.

This to me means Nato / the US and the EU are in over their heads and underestimated Russia's military capabilities and resolve in seeing this through. The sanctions have failed and instead of Russia going down the tubes ecomically, they are weathering the storm. The EU on the other hand, is going into recession and companies are moving to the US as what German government officials were giving out about during the week as reported by Politico, saying America is taking advantage of the sanctions at the expense of their so called allies.

We have Von Derr Crazy pushing for a price cap on Russian oil, with Poland and Estonia blocking it as they are not happy with the price of 60 to 70 dollars a barrel and want it reduced to 30 dollars. Hadley Gamble, the former US secretary of the treasury described this proposal as "not only not feasible, I think it's the most ridiculous idea I've ever heard." So Russia will not sell directly with any country that agrees to this but the EU will instead purchase it for a premium price off third countries. Crazy stuff.

On the battlefield ( not social media now ) Ukrainians are getting hammered, the latest example can be seen from reports yesterday of the images of the hospitals overrun with wounded near Bakhmut. Interviews were giving by medical staff in these hospitals and they can't cope with the number of wounded. You can watch as many Ukrop propaganda videos showing video game doctored war scenes, UK intelligence reports, Bellingcat, Kiev independent propoganda stories or videos stolen from the Russian military channels relabed Ukrainian, but the real war on the ground is much different.

Russia is now building up and preparing for a large offensive in Ukraine, with massive supplies of military hardware and manpower, all Nato can do is scramble together insufficient and ineffective weapons systems and supplies and all the EU can do is pump billions, which they will never get back, and cobble together their 9th round of sanctions which Russia will just laugh at but will inevitably lead to a quickening of the recession of Europe which we are seeing now in Germany and the UK.

This is going to be a complete catastrophe, not only for Ukraine as a country but also for the EU. Eventually the West will walk away from Ukraine when they can no longer keep up the current facade due to monetary and the realisation that they cannot win a war with Russia.

Would have taught the NATO/yanks etc,don't particularly need to beat Russia?
In that they can tie Russia down into an extensive,endless ground war,that will burn through resources, credibility and eventually become extremely unpopular at home.......a few hundred farm labourers in the north run rings around British army for bones of a generation,and could never be fully pinned down,russia eventually (like the yanks) had to withdraw from Afghanistan without a comprehensive victory


The notion,yanks/eu ever care about Ukrainians,was shallow the min they offered to spirit zelensky away on day one,.....they couldn't drag Russia into a ground war, by been seen to back Isis in syria,but can here

[KHD]

This is going to work out well.