Anyone still glued to this?

[PureIsle]

It's not for me to define what you see as winning. I'm happy to accept Zelensky's definition: Russia to GTFO of Ukraine - all of it, as recognised by the international community - and to pay reparations for all the damage they've inflicted. What more comes after that will be a bonus.

I never asked that you define what I thought a Ukraine 'win' would be, but what you thought.
That has eventually been answered and includes leaving Crimea to the Ukrainians.

Obviously as I do not believe that Ukraine is winning, has won as you have described, or indeed is likely to 'win', I hold no opinion on what a win for Ukraine could be.

Russia will never give up Crimea. If that looks likely then RF will use a nuke. This Russia has made clear on many occasions.

Russian being a "nuclear power" is irrelevant - we know now that that counts for nothing. They've threatened to nuke the rest of the world several times over, but every one of their red lines has been crossed and all they've done is (like you) cry "Neo Nazis!" then get back to their looting and general thuggery.

RF has never threatened to nuke the rest of the world. If you believe so then provide some reference that shows that threat.
Their stated position is that if the existence of the RF is threatened then they allow themselves the use of nuclear arms to prevent that happening. To date there has been no viable threat to the existence of the RF.

At least you have not tried to deny the existence of Nazis in the Ukrainian forces wearing Ukrainian uniforms and using Western arms and armaments.

You should note that if a 'red line' was not crossed the RF military would not have gone in to Ukraine in the first place. Apparently the RF believe that its existence is not threatened, so used no nukes yet.

[PureIsle]

Reports today from Ukraine indicate that the Ukrainian 'Spring Offensive' has begun in earnest, with fierce fighting in several locations.
Ukraine has gained some ground SW of Donetsck, an area they appear to be attacking from several directions.
They also retain control over one settlement to the north within Russian territory.

So from a Ukrainian perspective it has been a good couple of days, with the Russian forces stepping back to the next layer of defences in a couple of locations.

[PureIsle]

This morning I read that the RF forces have retaken most of what was lost yesterday SW of Dontesck.

It appears the dam at Kherson has been damaged with consequent serious flooding downstream. Neither side has yet claimed responsibility, but considering that most of the islands downstream were held by Ukrainian forces, (and likely to be used as part of the counter-offensive,) which Ukr are desperately trying to evacuate, IMO it is most likely that Russia is responsible for the dam damage.

Apparently Ukraine has hundreds of boats on the river rescuing their people from the flooding.

It seems the base structure of the dam is still intact and will still survive, with flood water pouring over/through the damaged part, thus retaining sufficient water to allow the continuation of supply to Crimea.

IMO, if Ukr was responsible then they would have moved their forces back prior to detonation, and most likely would have done sufficient damage to ensure Crimea lost its water supply.

Just opinion of course ...... maybe one of the sides will claim responsibility shortly.

[PureIsle]

I have changed my mind regarding who is responsible for the damage to the dam and the hydro-electric power plant.
It is under Russian control and I imagined a controlled explosion to partly damage the dam.
But I have seen footage of the damaged dam being shelled and the Russians have no reason to do this.

It now seems more likely to me that Ukraine shelled it and got a hit.

But it is difficult to know anything conclusively as I find it impossible to believe the BS from either side.

[CelticRambler]

Seems the consensus now is that this was yet another monstrous cock-up by the Russians, who thought they could blow a small hole in the dam, just enough to flood the Ukrainian positions on the islands downstream. Only being the most incompetent army in the world, they forgot to take into account various parameters like the force of water rushing through a gap and ended up flooding more of their own positions, as well as the towns and villages they supposedly claim as their own. They probably also forgot that they'd already mined the dam with a view to blowing it up as a "New Year's Gift" ...

[PureIsle]

Seems the consensus now is that this was yet another monstrous cock-up by the Russians, who thought they could blow a small hole in the dam, just enough to flood the Ukrainian positions on the islands downstream. Only being the most incompetent army in the world, they forgot to take into account various parameters like the force of water rushing through a gap and ended up flooding more of their own positions, as well as the towns and villages they supposedly claim as their own. They probably also forgot that they'd already mined the dam with a view to blowing it up as a "New Year's Gift" ...

Consensus of who or what?

I hear a number reckoning that it might have been an unexpected event due to the dam being weakened over months of Ukr shelling, rather than a direct hit.
Months ago, some Ukr commander said in public that they had plans to breach the dam so maybe they finally did.

On the matter of who benefits most the view appears to be Ukr .... deprives Crimea of most of their water and of course it distracts from the latest catastrophic failure of the 'spring counter offensive' where Ukr has lost huge numbers and end up with no gains - like the incursions in Belgorod distracting from the fall of Bakhmut - so keeping the public spotlight away from those failures.

Given the recent outcomes it is more than a little difficult to believe the RF forces are "the most incompetent army in the world" especially considering they are pitted against not only Ukr but also the support services and materiel of USA/NATO, which includes 'NATO people' on the ground. In fact I have never heard any military person of experience say anything close to that.

I expect the recent negative outcomes for Ukr to help speed up the provision of aircraft from various countries.
I also doubt that such aircraft will be a 'game changer' but more likely as much/little so as HIMARS and others that were touted as going to change the course of the conflict in favour of Ukr..

[CelticRambler]

Sounds like you're still getting most of your info from sources that prefer the Kremlin narrative than any other.

There is no evidence that Ukraine has been shelling the dam; there is lots of evidence that Russia mined it, deliberately increased the levels of water in the reservoir over the last couple of weeks and issued instructions to their troops downstream to prepare to move back.

Bakhmut doesn't need any distraction - as Prigozhin forecast, the Russians are losing it now that Wagner has pulled out; Ukraine have advanced several kilometres to the north and the south, with many Russian units surrendering en masse, having had nothing to eat or drink for days.

The "huge numbers" of Ukrainians lost is another Kremlin fiction. Again, even Prigozhin has been telling the Russian MoD to cop on to themselves and stop bragging about huge casualties they've inflicted when they can't even tell the difference between a tank and a combine harvester.

Day after day, the Kremlin and their puppets/useful idiots continue to pump out nonsense photos and nonsense videos and nonsense statements that's re-tweeted faster than it can be shown for the nonsense that it is. But it's always shown to be nonsense, time and time and time again. The Musocvite army can't even produce decent propaganda, let alone wage a successful war.

[PureIsle]

Maybe you will link me to or quote someone in the Ukr hierarchy that provides the information from the Ukr view of the situation.
As far as I can tell no situation report has been issued to the public.
On the contrary the RF side does issue reports, regardless how unbelievable those reports might be.

For instance Shoigu issued the following

Over 3 days of fighting, Ukrainian army losses are 3,715 troops, 52 tanks, 207 armored vehicles, 5 planes, 2 helicopters, 48 artillery pieces and 53 drones.

Shoigu adds 71 Russian troops killed and 210 wounded during Ukrainian army counteroffensive.

Note: as I understand it those losses include soldiers wounded as well as killed.

Please post the official Ukr reports from the last three days or even a week.
I would like to be able to compare their numbers with those of the RF and maybe make some sense of things.

[isha]

The pendulum (possibly) swings again on the Nordstrom pipeline explosion.

https://www.rte.ie/news/2023/0606/13877 ... -pipeline/

A European spy agency told the CIA it knew of a Ukraine special operations team plan to blow up the Nord Stream gas pipeline three months before explosions damaged the undersea system last year, the Washington Post has reported.

The newspaper cited US intelligence allegedly leaked earlier this year by a low-level US Air National Guard computer technician who had access to large amounts of highly classified materials.

The leaked documents indicated that an unnamed European intelligence body told the US spy agency in June 2022, four months after Russia invaded Ukraine, that Ukraine military divers reporting directly to the country's military commander-in-chief were planning the attack.

The Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines, built to carry natural gas from Russia to Germany, were rocked by underwater explosions on 26 September, rendering them useless and cutting off a potential source of billions of dollars in earnings for Russia.

The apparent sabotage sparked a region-wide emergency as it cut off crucial supplies of energy for Europe just as the war had sent the price of oil skyrocketing.


Accusations were made against several countries including Russia, the United States and Ukraine, but all denied responsibility.

The Post, citing unnamed officials, said that after the Central Intelligence Agency learned of the alleged bombing plot, the United States told allies including Germany about it.

It said the original European intelligence on the plot made clear it was not a rogue operation, and that it was overseen by military chief General Valerii Zaluzhnyi without the knowledge of Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky.

The Post report is supported by information gathered by German investigators that a six-person team using false passports took a large sailboat from the German port of Rostock last September to undertake the operation.

The sailboat was rented by what appeared to be a front company.

According to German media reports last week, metadata from the emails used to rent a sailboat tie them to Ukraine, and the president of the front company also lives in Kyiv.

However, Danish media recently reported that a Russian navy vessel specialised in submarine operations was photographed near the location of the sabotage just before it happened.

[PureIsle]

The pendulum (possibly) swings again on the Nordstrom pipeline explosion.

https://www.rte.ie/news/2023/0606/13877 ... -pipeline/

It is all propaganda - point fingers at everyone except those responsible. That is quite old - we have seen almost exactly that months ago. Why regurgitate now?

Three EU countries (Germany, Denmark, Sweden) have done investigations and actually KNOW who blew the pipelines but refuse to disclose the information to the public.
Heck even the German parliament has been refused the information - and that is on official records.

The only question in my mind is who are these EU countries protecting ..... their NATO ally, USA, or their pet project of the moment, Ukraine.

I am still inclined to blame the USA, mainly because a vessel especially equipped for such operation would be required and a hired sailboat is not one.

If the Russians wanted to stop the flow through the pipes all they had to do was turn off the taps.
Similarly, if Russia wanted to release all the water behind the dam, all they had to do was open the sluice gates.
So the Russians could achieve the same result without blowing up either of those.

[PureIsle]

More from Russia today ...

Russian Defense Minister Shoigu announces an attempt by Ukraine's army to break through Zaporozhye region's defenses with forces of up to 1,500 soldiers and 150 armored vehicles.

"In all four directions, the enemy was stopped and retreated with heavy losses, a result of a two-hour battle Kiev lost 30 tanks, 11 infantry fighting vehicles and up to 350 soldiers."

Hopefully someone will post announcements from the Ukr. officials to compare with what the Russians are saying.

I find it impossible to be sure of anything and would dearly like to have something official from ukr to compare with.

[CelticRambler]

More from Russia today ...Hopefully someone will post announcements from the Ukr. officials to compare with what the Russians are saying.

I find it impossible to be sure of anything and would dearly like to have something official from ukr to compare with.

There are none. In case you missed it, the Ukrainians "went dark" about ten days ago (and even trolled the Crimeans by hacking their TV network and posting a "sssshhhh" video. All you're going to get now is the daily report on what Russian losses the Ukrainians say they've inflicted (link previously provided by isha).

If you want to be "sure" of anything, you're out of luck. But, in general, what the Russians say is generally between 80% and 100% fiction (e.g. there was no damage caused to the dam in Nova Khakova ... ), and what the Ukrainians say is generally close to the truth - but often only confirmation of what the independent observers have already deduced using commercial satellite imagery and a rigourous analysis of accounts/photos/videos posted on social media.

The current "best guess" is that the Ukrainians are making a move on the central part of Zaporizhia, having cut off a lot of the re-supply routes from other regions. The puppet governer has ordered civilians to leave the region and relocate to ... Crimea? (WTF? as if they didn't have enough problems providing the existing population with drinking water).

Oh, and Russia is preventing search-and-rescue operations in the flooded areas on "their" side of the Dnipro, and shelling civilians who are being evacuated from the Ukrainian side. The UN has said they'd like to send people to help ... but they can't trust the Russians not to kill them, so they won't.

[PureIsle]

There are none.
...

OK, nothing to compare the Russian numbers with.

[CelticRambler]

Nothing but their past unreliability. If they say they killed 1500, then that probably means they themselves lost 1500 and they might have killed 150 Ukrainians.

For no good reason but as a rule, over the last year it's been well demonstrated that the Russians tend to under-report their own losses by about 90%-100% and exaggerate those inflicted on the Ukranians by about 500-1000%. It's become quite ridiculous now, but it's not even parody anymore when bot-watchers make fun of the Russian BS and accurately predict what are eventually revealed as the real figures, based on how fantastical are the initial claims.

[knownunknown]

Nothing but their past unreliability. If they say they killed 1500, then that probably means they themselves lost 1500 and they might have killed 150 Ukrainians.

For no good reason but as a rule, over the last year it's been well demonstrated that the Russians tend to under-report their own losses by about 90%-100% and exaggerate those inflicted on the Ukranians by about 500-1000%. It's become quite ridiculous now, but it's not even parody anymore when bot-watchers make fun of the Russian BS and accurately predict what are eventually revealed as the real figures, based on how fantastical are the initial claims.

Well demonstrated by who and where can I find this? From what I’ve seen this trope has been repeated ad nauseam without evidence, therefore it would be better described as propaganda. The fog of war leads to low confidence in stating figures,you shouldn’t just assume one side is right and the other wrong. This kind of bias thinking has overtaken Ireland and much of the west though I will admit.

From the US intelligence leak in April:

Several documents also offer "low confidence" estimates for the number of casualties, with the U.S. estimating 189,500 to 223,000 Russian casualties, compared to 124,500 to 131,000 Ukrainian casualties.

[PureIsle]

Nothing but their past unreliability. If they say they killed 1500, then that probably means they themselves lost 1500 and they might have killed 150 Ukrainians.

For no good reason but as a rule, over the last year it's been well demonstrated that the Russians tend to under-report their own losses by about 90%-100% and exaggerate those inflicted on the Ukranians by about 500-1000%. It's become quite ridiculous now, but it's not even parody anymore when bot-watchers make fun of the Russian BS and accurately predict what are eventually revealed as the real figures, based on how fantastical are the initial claims.

As I have posted multiple times, I do not believe either sides' propaganda.

I have seen nothing posted that would encourage me to completely believe either side.

My present thought is that if Ukr are winning then their losses are a fraction of the Russians' and they would have no reason to 'go quiet' on those details.

On the other hand there are many independent assessments, of the type of conflict being carried out, who say that the artillery advantage of the RF forces means they inflict multiple hits per one received, which would mean their losses are less than Ukr.

The only thing I know for sure is that a huge number of lives are lost every day this goes on.

[PureIsle]

According to this summary of today's fighting the Ukr forces got a real hammering, and again lost a huge number of soldiers as well as hardware which included some Leopard tanks - the best version they have apparently.

Hopefully it will be over soon and maybe spare some lives of those left.

[Setanta]

Some confirmation Ukraine has taken some land/towns back relatively unscathed,but is receiving a pasting in areas where Russia has dug in/has terrain advantages......the yanks are evil,pressing Ukraine into an offensive it admits it's not properly equipped to undertake without air support....to get positive results for domestic political purpose





Gonna be a tough few years at present rates of attrition,if ukraine choose to stay the course......the potential of high inflation next winter is now near gauranteed

[JayZeus]

Some confirmation Ukraine has taken some land/towns back relatively unscathed,but is receiving a pasting in areas where Russia has dug in/has terrain advantages......the yanks are evil,pressing Ukraine into an offensive it admits it's not properly equipped to undertake without air support....to get positive results for domestic political purpose





Gonna be a tough few years at present rates of attrition,if ukraine choose to stay the course......the potential of high inflation next winter is now near gauranteed

The yanks are evil?

Russia is evil.

And to hell with the selfish folks who want Ukraine to roll over so they’re spared an increase on their fuel and grocery bills.

If it takes them 5 years and a million plus soldiers deaths, Ukraine will not give up. Nor should they.

While some will dread the silence from the Ukranian forces right now, I see it as clear indication they’re in control of themselves.

There will be heavy losses on both sides but the Ukranians are the ones who will prevail here.

[PureIsle]

The yanks are evil?

Russia is evil.

And to hell with the selfish folks who want Ukraine to roll over so they’re spared an increase on their fuel and grocery bills.

If it takes them 5 years and a million plus soldiers deaths, Ukraine will not give up. Nor should they.

While some will dread the silence from the Ukranian forces right now, I see it as clear indication they’re in control of themselves.

There will be heavy losses on both sides but the Ukranians are the ones who will prevail here.

It would be interesting to read why you think this.
Do you think Ukraine has military superiority or is there some other reason you believe Ukraine will prevail?

[Setanta]

The yanks are evil?

Russia is evil.

And to hell with the selfish folks who want Ukraine to roll over so they’re spared an increase on their fuel and grocery bills.

If it takes them 5 years and a million plus soldiers deaths, Ukraine will not give up. Nor should they.

While some will dread the silence from the Ukranian forces right now, I see it as clear indication they’re in control of themselves.

There will be heavy losses on both sides but the Ukranians are the ones who will prevail here.

Ukraine is crying out for air support/no fly zone since the start of this war.....spent the entire winter begging for fighter jets and have been pushed into an offensive,they themselves admit they aren't prepared nor equipped enough for

The yanks are evil,have been with a generation and I don't believ for a min,they give a balls about ukraine/Europe...Would have felt Russia being evil didn't need saying

noone is calling for Ukraine to roll over for cheaper fuel/grocery ....but backing yourself into a rethoric filled corner to handwave away potentially 5 million Ukrainians soldiers deaths is lunacy,while their country is reduced to rubble and ruin and Europe decimated supporting Ukrainian refugees and absorbing inflation for America's greed and hedgemony......an international force of 500K plus trained troops,not conscripts is what will be needed,sending all those conscripted Ukrainians (and russians) into yet more and more bakhmuts type scenarios is wrong imo,

[Setanta]

It would be interesting to read why you think this.
Do you think Ukraine has military superiority or is there some other reason you believe Ukraine will prevail?

Fundamentally Ukraine will prevail,as Russia will tire of endless drain on its resources and someone will simply kill Putin (or age catch up on him),make some modest reforms and soundbites and western establishment will open both arms to em


Money trumps morals for a worrying amount of the establishment both here and most western countries (old enough to recall establishment here demand US military be allowed use Shannon for spreading terror into middle east for fear of frightening away multinational corporations)

,they've sold their own people down the drain to persue extra profits by out sourcing manufacturing,COVID showed the obvious flaws with this....but they haven't bothered their hole to make any meaningful reforms to fix these "supply chain" issues (hence how they are now struggling to supply Ukraine with weaponry as they've decimated their defence manufacturing industries)

[JayZeus]

Russia started this. Not some evil US industrial military complex out to line their pockets by starting a conflict. Businesses make money, bucketloads of it, from all wars. It’s totally normal. Politicians gain, businesses gain, people suffer. We’re seeing nothing new here.

But look at the reality; Ukraine WILL fight to their very end if that’s what it takes.

They’re not idiots, martyrs or some kind of puppets. They’ll put everything they have at their disposal into liberating their country from occupation, and that is WHY other nations will and SHOULD continue to support them.

If it lays waste to their lands and kills millions, they’ll do it for themselves, because it’s clear as day that nobody else is going to point a gun and pull the trigger against Russia. They fight or they get swallowed again.

[Setanta]

Russia started this. Not some evil US industrial military complex out to line their pockets by starting a conflict. Businesses make money, bucketloads of it, from all wars. It’s totally normal. Politicians gain, businesses gain, people suffer. We’re seeing nothing new here.

But look at the reality; Ukraine WILL fight to their very end if that’s what it takes.

They’re not idiots, martyrs or some kind of puppets. They’ll put everything they have at their disposal into liberating their country from occupation, and that is WHY other nations will and SHOULD continue to support them.

If it lays waste to their lands and kills millions, they’ll do it for themselves, because it’s clear as day that nobody else is going to point a gun and pull the trigger against Russia. They fight or they get swallowed again.

Noone is saying otherwise,just it's pure hypocrisy the way Russia has faced sanctions and explsuion from.the world affairs (justified).....while yanks,Brits and french (some qs need answering on our own rangers helping Wagner in Mali too)are free to terrorise the world and topple governments regularly and face nothing.....deosnt seem fair to me anyway



What's at their disposal simply isn't enough to liberate their country though, Ukraine admits this as much,US intelligence deosnt expect any large gains,they throwing conscripted infantry and tanks at a wall of russian defense with nowhere near enough air power to push it through......this isn't like Kherson where the supply lines were crippled with one bridge left and a tactical withdrawal was undertaken....there's every reason to believe you could be looking at extended trench warfare along the entire front??




their no doubts they are brave and trying to free their country,and Russia has been doing awlful disfigurement and displays to bodies of slayed soldiers (feck imagine what could be done for our own 6 counties if we got same resources)....but a proper trained and equipped army of 500K international troops would be million times better support IMO,but seems most countries are happy to let Ukrainians be slaughtered and reduced to rubble,while sitting on their hands pretending sanctions and poorly trained long term deployed conscripts are going to work any day now

[PureIsle]

Russia started this. Not some evil US industrial military complex out to line their pockets by starting a conflict. Businesses make money, bucketloads of it, from all wars. It’s totally normal. Politicians gain, businesses gain, people suffer. We’re seeing nothing new here.

We should not forget the history behind the present conflict, which is the real cause of it.

NATO promised not to extend "one inch" when Ru withdrew troops from West Germany.
This was to guarantee the Ru security.
NATO has consistently broken that promise since and have added many many countries and now want to add Ukr also, which Ru has stated many times they will not allow.

Ru tried many times to get agreements to not have Ukr in NATO and succeeded. The more important ones were signed in Minsk .... known as Minsk Agreement.
The first one was broken by Ukr. even though its implementation had been guaranteed by other Eu nations.

The second Minsk Agreement although signed and guaranteed by France and Germany, was not implemented either by Ukr.
We have heard since from Merkel and Hollande that there was never any intention of implementing those agreements by the Eu nations, but they were used only to allow NATO to arm and train Ukr forces so they could attack Ru.

Eventually the Ukr forces began a civil war against the Eastern parts of Ukr because they would not recognise the puppet government installed after a bloody coup in 2014 ... and yes the USA was behind that one too.

Eventually the Ru went in to East Ukr, and at that stage they had several reasons ...
To protect the Eastern Ukrainians who were mostly ethnic Russians and spoke Russian as their first language.
To demilitarise Ukr so that it would no longer be capable of damaging Ru militarily.
To ensure Ukr could never become a NATO member.
To de-NAZIfy Ukr.
To eventually get an internationally recognised agreement guaranteeing the rights of the Eastern Ukrainians and for that area to become an independently administered area within Ukraine.
Essentially everything that was in the Minsk agreements which were never implemented.

Shortly after Ru invaded, there was an agreement which apparently satisfied both sides, but this again was not implemented. Most seem to consider it was the visit of Boris Johnson to Kiev that was the turning point.
I doubt that matters to Ru. What they saw was another agreement which was broken, and at that time things changed for the worse.

So yes Ru invaded and this was the immediate cause of this military conflict.
The BS promoted by the Western countries, repeated ad-nauseum, that this conflict was UNPROVOKED is so far away from the truth, that it would be laughable except so many appear to believe it.

The intention of 'the west' has been stated to be to break apart the RF and particularly Ru itself, and open up that area to Western 'investment' and extraction of its natural resources, which are vast.
Naturally Ru takes a dim view of their intentions - and indeed actions - taken to try to achieve that.

IMO, Ru will succeed regardless the cost to itself, because to fail would mean the breakup of Ru and they will not allow that. They are prepared to use nukes if that appears imminent.

But look at the reality; Ukraine WILL fight to their very end if that’s what it takes.

They’re not idiots, martyrs or some kind of puppets. They’ll put everything they have at their disposal into liberating their country from occupation, and that is WHY other nations will and SHOULD continue to support them.

If it lays waste to their lands and kills millions, they’ll do it for themselves, because it’s clear as day that nobody else is going to point a gun and pull the trigger against Russia. They fight or they get swallowed again.

The reality is that Ru will not allow its very existence to be threatened, which is how Ru perceives the actions of, and the statements from, Western powers in the last decade.
If its existence is threatened it allows itself to use first strike nukes.