Anyone still glued to this?

[CelticRambler]

Do you not feel it's a paradox,to proclaim Ukraine as professional army,while Russia and Wagner are incompetent conscripts...when a they have ousted Ukraine from bakhmut??

No, because the Ukrainians always said "we'll defend Bakhmut until it suits us not to". They haven't been ousted, they're right there beside it, and around it, and they've made Russia/Wagner pay dearly in blood and metal.

[CelticRambler]

Ukraine are claiming 80 engagements a day with russian forces at present,this level of attrition is unsustainable for either side,they are long overdue a sit-down peace talks

Have you seen the imbalance in those engagments? The attrition is overwhelmingly on the Russian side. They send a dozen tanks, personel carriers and supply lines down a road, along with a few dozen troops; and a Ukrainian assault team with a few drones and a couple of long-range guns destroy them one after the other. It happens over and over and over and over again. The Russians who surrender talk about climbing over the dead bodies of those who'd been sent ahead of them; and the Ukrainians on the front line talk about zombie hordes that keep re-spawning and coming at them again.

But while there are thousands of reports of the Russians losing up to 90% of a unit, and grieving widows/mothers to support the claim, the videos from the Ukrainian side talk about single-digit soliders in an assault group being killed, and more often they're not killed but injured and taken off the battlefield for treatment. The worst Ukrainian casualties seem to be amongst the non-combatant services, like medics and evacuation teams, which is a very "western" problem in active conflicts.

[CelticRambler]

Talks of a Ukraine active middle of the day attack on Belgorod,across the border

Okay, I think we can be fairly sure this bit of news is completely true. Loads of drone footage, loads of phone footage, load of air-raid sirens in Belgorod, even a confirmation from the Russian government that "something" has happened ...

So yesterday, Russia took control of the 56th largest town in Ukraine; today somebody is stomping on a whole Russian republic, telling the locals to keep calm because they're not the target, Moscow is ...

Incidentally, this isn't really a surprise: there have been quite a few attacks on targets in Belgorod in the last few weeks, so it was known that that border was weak and that city's air defence not particularly good, as it has all been send to defend Crimea.

[isha]

Just was wondering about one thing you said earlier CR, that there is no R in BRICS anymore. I have not seen that announcement. Have you a link to the story?

[PureIsle]

Just was wondering about one thing you said earlier CR, that there is no R in BRICS anymore. I have not seen that announcement. Have you a link to the story?

That would be absolutely HUGE news and no doubt plastered all over as certain proof that Russia is losing and, as Ursula van der Leyen said, their economy is "in tatters".

From what I can see Russia was a driving force behind BRICS and that has not changed.
It does appear that Brazil is a little on the fence, or maybe 'playing both sides' a bit. Much like Turkey is between NATO and Russia .... until the election is settled anyway.

[CelticRambler]

Just was wondering about one thing you said earlier CR, that there is no R in BRICS anymore. I have not seen that announcement. Have you a link to the story?

No announcement. There's no official organisation - it's just a group of five low-income, high-population economies that meet up once a year, but for some strange reason the R country didn't turn up at the meeting this week, and the others have been quietly disengaging from their previous plans to pair their currency with the R country as an alternative to the petro-dollar.

[isha]

Thanks for the info.

I would not particularly describe BRICS as low income. The five places together control about 25% of the world's wealth and have 40% of the global population. I have read that Saudi Arabia is potentially joining. That would give BRICS quite a boost re access to major planetary fuel reserves - Saudi Arabia has 30% of the world's oil reserves and 22% of the world's gas reserves. I will keep an eye out in the media to see if Russia is actually out of BRICS as you said - it may be that Putin is not doing foreign travel due to fear of assassination. Which is probably a real risk.

PS in case it needs to be stated again, I'm not a fan of Putin. I just like to have an approximate idea of what is going on, though I think that's nigh on impossible in our post truth environment.

[PureIsle]

Thanks for the info.

I would not particularly describe BRICS as low income. The five places together control about 25% of the world's wealth and have 40% of the global population. I have read that Saudi Arabia is potentially joining. That would give BRICS quite a boost re access to major planetary fuel reserves - Saudi Arabia has 30% of the world's oil reserves and 22% of the world's gas reserves. I will keep an eye out in the media to see if Russia is actually out of BRICS as you said - it may be that Putin is not doing foreign travel due to fear of assassination. Which is probably a real risk.

PS in case it needs to be stated again, I'm not a fan of Putin. I just like to have an approximate idea of what is going on, though I think that's nigh on impossible in our post truth environment.

Waiting list for BRICS+: at 25 - and counting.

Afghanistan, Algeria, Argentina, Bahrain, Bangladesh, Belarus, Egypt, Indonesia, Iran, Kazakhstan, Mexico, Nicaragua, Nigeria, Pakistan, Saudi, Senegal, Sudan, Syria, Thailand, Tunisia, Turkiye, UAE, Uruguay, Venezuela, Zimbabwe.

I would expect a couple of those to fall away due to recent elections which will likely cause a change in political viewpoint.
Nevertheless there are some important countries in the list of those waiting for entry to BRICS+

The next year should prove interesting.

[PureIsle]

I see a Ukrainian group has gone over the border near Belgorod and taken control of a few 'settlements' but more worrying for the Russians is they appear to have taken part of the Russian defensive line in that area, with no resistance at all except the small contingent of border guards, which had to retreat.

Russian military has been moved to the area to contain the incursion, but one must wonder about the management of their defences if they were so easily breached by a very small number of Ukrainian soldiers.

[CelticRambler]

I see a Ukrainian group ... Ukrainian soldiers.

Correction: A group of Russian soldiers, who have proclaimed their intention to rid Russia of corrupt Russian leaders. Nothing to do with Ukraine ...

[CelticRambler]

I would not particularly describe BRICS as low income. The five places together control about 25% of the world's wealth and have 40% of the global population.

You'd have trouble getting a job that paid more than 10k a year in any of those countries, so that makes them "low income" in the sense that I used it. Just because the country as a whole is "wealthy" - usually with reference to the value of its natural resources - doesn't mean that the population enjoys that wealth. That 40% of the population is a long way short of having 40% of the world's disposable income.

Also, China on its own accounts for a lot of the economic activity of the group (more than half of the GDP, and India makes up most of the rest), but it is not particularly rich in natural resources. So it's in China's interest to make convenient economic alliances with countries that have the resources it needs for it wealth-generating industry. However, as we've seen this year, they value their trade with the West more than their political alignment with the Russians, and India is going the same way. Both countries are passively undermining Russia's economy despite their hesitancy to proclaim themselves "anti-Russia" - China is the new arms manufacturer of choice for emerging nations, and India is the new preferred producer of refined petroleum products - ironically accelerated by Putin's vanity invasion.

I'm pretty sure we'll see "BRICS" (+/-25 as cited by PureIsle) persist, but be dominated by China and India and their ambitions; and that it will be seen to be so. Kinda like the EEC was a Franco-German project, and the rest of us were allowed to tag along, though I wouldn't be too sure the BRS+25 will be allowed to increase their influence to the same was as we and our fellow EU members have been.

[PureIsle]

Correction: A group of Russian soldiers, who have proclaimed their intention to rid Russia of corrupt Russian leaders. Nothing to do with Ukraine ...

Hahahahaha.

They have Ukrainian issued uniforms, weapons and bullets and even a Ukrainian tank and several other Ukrainian issued vehicles.

But, sure they are not Ukrainian soldiers!

Nothing to do with Ukraine, for definite! Hahahahahaha.

Even CNN does not agree with you!
https://edition.cnn.com/2023/05/22/euro ... index.html

[CelticRambler]

But they have Russian passports, speak Russian and say they're Russians. Isn't that exactly the justification Putin gave for invading Ukraine? Can't have it both ways.

In any case, they're still there this morning, reinforcing the "worst week for Russia" theme, and whaddyaknow: no-one's talking about Bakhmut any more.

In other news, nice video circulating showing a 7-member Ukrainian assault group destroy three tanks/APCs and capture 22 Russians (alive) for zero Ukrainian losses. That's why the "attrition" argument doesn't hold up.

[PureIsle]

But they have Russian passports, speak Russian and say they're Russians. Isn't that exactly the justification Putin gave for invading Ukraine? Can't have it both ways.

No.

Maybe it has escaped your notice that a large portion of the Ukrain population speaks Russian as their first language.
Heck even Zelensky has not yet mastered Ukrainian but speaks Russian fluently. Is he Russian also?

In any case, they're still there this morning, reinforcing the "worst week for Russia" theme, and whaddyaknow: no-one's talking about Bakhmut any more.

Yeah ... is that one of those strange coincidences?
Takes the spotlight off the most dreadful battle result in the course of this conflict.

In other news, nice video circulating showing a 7-member Ukrainian assault group destroy three tanks/APCs and capture 22 Russians (alive) for zero Ukrainian losses. That's why the "attrition" argument doesn't hold up.

Got a link?

[Setanta]

Hahahahaha.

They have Ukrainian issued uniforms, weapons and bullets and even a Ukrainian tank and several other Ukrainian issued vehicles.

But, sure they are not Ukrainian soldiers!

Nothing to do with Ukraine, for definite! Hahahahahaha.

Even CNN does not agree with you!
https://edition.cnn.com/2023/05/22/euro ... index.html

That is sanction territory,all things being equal....looks like zelensky has lost control of his army....this type attack hasn't his blueprint IMO

But if Russia is incurring into/attacking another country,it's reasonable they face attack,and all part of descending into the mire to seek victory,and essential to all wars being willing to escalate tensions....


bit grim to watch critism of Ukraine doing same as Russia,being simply handwaved away and laughed about however.....I see Pyotr Kucherenko,the Russia minister most known to be vocal in opposing this war died during a trip to Cuba,aged 46

[PureIsle]

That is sanction territory,all things being equal....looks like zelensky has lost control of his army....this type attack hasn't his blueprint IMO

But if Russia is incurring into/attacking another country,it's reasonable they face attack,and all part of descending into the mire to seek victory,and essential to all wars being willing to escalate tensions....


bit grim to watch critism of Ukraine doing same as Russia,being simply handwaved away and laughed about however.....I see Pyotr Kucherenko,the Russia minister most known to be vocal in opposing this war died during a trip to Cuba,aged 46

The difficulty is that the arms Ukraine is using are issued by NATO countries mostly, officially with condition they not be used to attack undisputed Russian territory. If the arms are used for that purpose that makes the donaters of the weapons parties to the conflict, which as we all know is repeatably denied by those same donors.
None of them want to go to war with Russia at this time.

It seems more and more likely that the incursion was a distraction to the fall of Bakhmut.

[isha]

I found this interview interesting yesterday. It's Gerard Araud, who formerly has been France's ambassador to Israel, the UN, and the US under both Obama and Bush. Obviously diplomacy is his interest in this case, but for those who object to that, he does break down the attitudes of two global camps.

Surprisingly perhaps the US and Germany and Macron (if not the French citizenry) don't see the likelihood of a clean victory over Putin. Their analysts see either settlement talks or a very long war of attrition which will devastate Ukraine and endanger Europe. This accords with how I have felt about this terrible war since the beginning.

It's not the position pushed by Eastern Europe or the UK, who want the military victory and won't countenance anything else (understandably for many of those countries because they don't have the convenience of the US 's geographical distance). I would add Scandinavia to that mix and, strangely, Ireland, whose politicians from the beginning have talked a very tough, bellicose game for a supposedly neutral country.


Anyway, for anyone interested...

[isha]

I'm probably late to the game but have you checked out the Twitter account of the official department of defense of Ukraine. If Carlsberg made sexy war accounts....

@DefenceU

From yesterday



I'm following them now for the bracing good news and tonic effect of jingoism.

[Setanta]

The difficulty is that the arms Ukraine is using are issued by NATO countries mostly, officially with condition they not be used to attack undisputed Russian territory. If the arms are used for that purpose that makes the donaters of the weapons parties to the conflict, which as we all know is repeatably denied by those same donors.
None of them want to go to war with Russia at this time.

It seems more and more likely that the incursion was a distraction to the fall of Bakhmut.

That's a story as old as time,FF learned that in 1969 when they given guns to saor Eire,who ended up in hands of provos

It's like a sliotar,when it's out of your hand,you can't control it....wouldn't call donators party to the conflict,but should raise alarm bells about likely hood of guns/military grade explosives ending in hands of extremists across.the continent over next 5 to 8 years of this war

[PureIsle]

I found this interview interesting yesterday. It's Gerard Araud, who formerly has been France's ambassador to Israel, the UN, and the US under both Obama and Bush. Obviously diplomacy is his interest in this case, but for those who object to that, he does break down the attitudes of two global camps.

Surprisingly perhaps the US and Germany and Macron (if not the French citizenry) don't see the likelihood of a clean victory over Putin. Their analysts see either settlement talks or a very long war of attrition which will devastate Ukraine and endanger Europe. This accords with how I have felt about this terrible war since the beginning.

It's not the position pushed by Eastern Europe or the UK, who want the military victory and won't countenance anything else (understandably for many of those countries because they don't have the convenience of the US 's geographical distance). I would add Scandinavia to that mix and, strangely, Ireland, whose politicians from the beginning have talked a very tough, bellicose game for a supposedly neutral country.


Anyway, for anyone interested...

I have not watched all that video, but my first reaction is that nothing that happened from 1991 to 2022 is considered when looking at the Ukrainian situation.
Consequently any analysis put forward of that situation is lacking context.

The other part I saw concerned Taiwan and China.
The USA acknowledges that Taiwan is part of China ... the 'one China policy' .... yet contrary to the expressed wishes of the Chinese government the USA is selling arms into Taiwan.

Also the USA is opening three new military bases in the Philippines in addition to all the other military bases they have in the area, essentially surrounding China.
In addition we hear statements coming from the USA that they will go to war with China by 2025.
Who is the aggressor here?

It is a similar situation in Europe with USA/NATO expanding into almost all countries surrounding Russia, essentially threatening Russian security. This is being done despite the promises and agreements made over the years.
Who is the aggressor here?

It is clear to me but of course others have differing opinions.

I think the best that Ukraine can hope for now is that they are left with an area of sufficient distance from Moscow with which Russian is comfortable, and the Eastern part is either autonomous or part of Russia.

What happens to the far Western part of Ukraine is somewhat doubtful in my mind, as clearly Poland wants to take advantage of the situation and take back territory in the Lviv area that was historically Polish.

We could see Ukraine totally disappear if things go badly wrong for them.

The only alternative I see is the destruction of Russia .... and that will not happen without a nuclear war. It is the one situation where Russia will use nuclear weapons ... if there is an existential threat to the very existence of the Russian Federation.

If there were less warmongers in the West, the Minsk agreements would have been implemented, and East Ukraine would still be Ukrainian and somewhat autonomous, and there would be no talk of NATO weapons in Ukraine threatening Russia. That is part of the context to which I referred above.

Of course I am aware that my opinion is not that of the majority, but it is firmly held.

[CelticRambler]

It is a similar situation in Europe with USA/NATO expanding into almost all countries surrounding Russia, essentially threatening Russian security. This is being done despite the promises and agreements made over the years.
Who is the aggressor here?

A map of Russia's borders with NATO countries. Slightly out of date now, seeing as the invasion of Ukraine prompted Finland to apply for membership of NATO (the organisation doesn't pursue a policy of expansion).



But continue believing that poor likkle Russia is such a weak and vulnerable country that it needs "security guarantees" to stop it feeling threatened ... while it invades other neighbouring countries.

[CelticRambler]

I think the best that Ukraine can hope for now is that they are left with an area of sufficient distance from Moscow with which Russian is comfortable

Well then, you'll surely be pleased that that's the stated aim of the Russians who crossed the border yesterday: they want to create a de-Moscowfied buffer zone in the regions of Belgorod, Bryansk, Kursk, Voronezh and Rostov.

Interesting follow-up to that episode - it would appear that the Muscovite Army injured a signficantly greater number of civilians (and destroyed their homes) than the Free Russia fighters. That'll hardly help foster a sense of "national pride" in the local population (no to mention Muscovite aircraft accidentally dropping bombs on their cities).

[PureIsle]

@CelticRambler

How do you see the Ukrainian conflict ending?

[PureIsle]

I came across the below this morning. If it is true, or anywhere close to true, there was a terrible loss of life in and around Bakhmut, and for what I wonder?

Bakhmut must have some very important military value to both sides to warrant this number of lives lost and wounded.

Add to those numbers the number of PMC personnel killed and wounded ... reported to be 10,000 killed and maybe 30,000 wounded ..... (I find it difficult to believe the PMC numbers are so much lower than the Ukrainian numbers as those in defensive positions usually have less losses) ..... and the mind boggles at the loss of life for just this one location.

Horrendous!

Yevgeniy Prigozhin:

Bakhmut results:
1. 6.5 thousand foreign mercenaries of the Ukrainian Armed Forces were destroyed.
2. 10 thousand units of military equipment of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were destroyed.
3. 35 thousand units of weapons of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were taken as trophies.
4. More than 50 aircraft and helicopters of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were destroyed.
5. 55,000 soldiers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were killed.
6. 85 thousand soldiers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were wounded.
7. Such a large percentage of the dead was due to the fact that the Armed Forces of Ukraine were almost surrounded and did not have time to take out the wounded.
8. PMC Wagner has also losses, but several times less.
9. 10 brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were completely destroyed and deprived of combat capability.
10. 21 brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were defeated and withdrawn to the rear for reorganization.
11. All these brigades were preparing for the offensive but instead of an offensive, they were defeated in Bakhmut.

[Bishop_Brennan]

So Jimmy Dore is on a kill list sponsored by the Ukrainian govt.

lovely.... and the left are creaming themselves..