Anyone still glued to this?

[KHD]

What if the whole thing is a feint by the Commies to draw all NATO's tanks etc. into the Ukraine and weaken their defences elsewhere? The UK's remaining two tanks, one platoon of horse guards and two leaky aircraft carriers won't be able to do much. They will probably be begging Ireland for a loan of the Sliabh na mBan (Michael Collins' armoured car).

Something I was listening to during the week popped into my head there while i read this. An American told a story about what happened directly after the fall of the Berlin Wall.

At the time the western military forces that were available to defend against a possible attack by the Soviet Union and Warsaw Pact countries numbered about 500,000 men. The problem was always that they could not match the Soviets with regard to industrial output of weapons, similar to what is unfolding now in Ukraine with regards the scarcity of certain munitions and weaponry, so they adapted a doctrine of quality over quantity to overcome the output problem. We will destroy 5 tanks of the Soviets for every one we loose. Anyway the Americans sent in intelligence operatives to examine and take photos of Russian equipment during the chaos of the period in Eastern Germany and they were shocked at the quality and construction of the Soviet weapons they examined. It was an oopsy moment that they were way off with the quality over quantity idea they based their defensive planning on.

[KHD]

The UK will be fine. The last invasion was the Normans about 1000 years ago.

I'm thinking would Putin want to emulate Peter the Great. After all, he reached Paris....

With Truss and Boris out of the way and Sunak doesn't seem to be prone to the escaltory outbursts like the two other yobos I don't think the Brits have anything to worry about. Sunak seems to take a bit more note of what his own military say. Pity other European countries wouldn't do the same. What I've noticed in the past 3 weeks is calm heads from the militaries, hysterical talk from our political leaders and I'd include Stoltenberg in the political camp. Currently over in Asia beating the war drum against China, which America hasn't a hope in hell in defeating militarily in its current state.

[Del.Monte]

With Truss and Boris out of the way and Sunak doesn't seem to be prone to the escaltory outbursts like the two other yobos I don't think the Brits have anything to worry about. Sunak seems to take a bit more note of what his own military say. Pity other European countries wouldn't do the same. What I've noticed in the past 3 weeks is calm heads from the militaries, hysterical talk from our political leaders and I'd include Stoltenberg in the political camp. Currently over in Asia beating the war drum against China, which America hasn't a hope in hell in defeating militarily in its current state.

+1

I couldn't believe Stoltenberg stoking the fire regarding China. Anybody with a brain would be trying to gently drive a wedge between Russia and China but this fool is pushing them together.

[isha]

What I've noticed in the past 3 weeks is calm heads from the militaries, hysterical talk from our political leaders

Regarding this, a few weeks ago the Rand Organisation, which I have read is a think tank favoured by the Pentagon (but I could be wrong on that) published a view. Avoiding the Long War.

Sorry if it is posted here already - sometimes I skim / half read

https://www.rand.org/pubs/perspectives/PEA2510-1.html

[KHD]

+1

I couldn't believe Stoltenberg stoking the fire regarding China. Anybody with a brain would be trying to gently drive a wedge between Russia and China but this fool is pushing them together.

Whatever chance they had of driving a wedge between China and Russia is gone. China know that if the attempts by the west to destroy Russia succeeded, they would be next.

All it has done is solidify the support for Putin in Russia and the close relationship between China and Russia. Every time some dumb European leader opens their mouth with stupid escalatery statements it just further solidifies the Kremlin's position in Russia.

[KHD]

Regarding this, a few weeks ago the Rand Organisation, which I have read is a think tank favoured by the Pentagon (but I could be wrong on that) published a view. Avoiding the Long War.

Sorry if it is posted here already - sometimes I skim / half read

https://www.rand.org/pubs/perspectives/PEA2510-1.html

The Rand Corporation was set up by the US Airforce to make policy documents that could be given to Congress to justify their military spending. It has ballooned a bit since then but you are correct in that this drives or justifies American foreign policy. If you look at the 2019 version of the report it is a playbook as to what happened in Ukraine and all the scenarios played out.

The updated you refer to, if you strip away the usual narratives it basically says we need to pull out of there. This was backed up by a report from the Center for Strategic & International Studies, which went into more detail. I think with the German and British military observations in the past fortnight and what the House Armed Services committee leader in the States said with regard to military output, it is slowly dawning on western leaders that this war is lost and they will have to find some sort of off ramp on this.

The only problem is that Russia will no longer negotiate on any of this, the Minsk and Istanbul agreements have been shown as just an excuse to build up the Ukrainian military. This was admitted by Merkel, Hollande and a representative on the Ukrainian side on the Istanbul talks. The Merkel admission I think affected Putin badly, to the extent that he basically apologised to the Russian people for been taken in by it.

Ukraine's future unfortunately will now be decided militarily and to what extent the Russians have decided to stop, which no one but the Russians have this a closely guarded secret.

[Hairy-Joe]

Oh the western leaders can decide on the solution for this war. If they decide to impose a peace solution that means Ukraine looses some of it's territory, I can see the ordinary Ukrainians deciding not to accept it and fight to the end. We are all forgetting that it's their country. They have seen over the past few years what freedom brings.

Think about the people's response in the US if Canada invaded Chicago.......

[Setanta]

Finland walking back on joining NATO,





Russia are a shower of utter cunts,but it's long since time the EU (and Eire) reviewed it's relationship with America.......easy for them to stir trouble here,while sitting 3000KM from any flare-ups

[KHD]

While I respectfully have to disagree with some aspects of the last two posters outlook on this, I will say in my view that America will eventually have to disengage from supporting this conflict. The Pentagon is already saying that they could be in a war with China as early as 2025. China will be a hundred times worse than Ukraine. I also see America eventually having to make concessions with regard to the status of Ukraine to the Russians to get out of this. Also this current conflict when it reaches its end state, no matter what side of the fence your on, will have massive repercussions and global changes to countries economies, governments, trading blocks, current military alliances and monetary systems.

The ultimate deciders of what happens in Ukraine in the end will be primarily be between Russia and the US. With Russia having the final decision of yay or nay.

As for Europe, they will go ahead with whatever the US agrees, but I think the treatment of Germany over the last month will come back to bite the current western governments, especially in Eastern Europe and with NATO.

[Del.Monte]

A conflict with China needs to be headed off now not when it happens and reunification with Taiwan will only happen through diplomacy and time being the healer. Any conflict involving the USA and China over events that took place the best part of 100 years ago is absolute lunacy. There are real problems in the world without this sort of nonsense and China needs to be brought onside rather than pushed into a some bizarre alliance with Putin, North Korea and Iran.

[KHD]

A conflict with China needs to be headed off now not when it happens and reunification with Taiwan will only happen through diplomacy and time being the healer. Any conflict involving the USA and China over events that took place the best part of 100 years ago is absolute lunacy. There are real problems in the world without this sort of nonsense and China needs to be brought onside rather than pushed into a some bizarre alliance with Putin, North Korea and Iran.

I don't mean to bash America as I love the country, I have been over many times and have good friends there. American is a more attractive system than China or Russia. But as my favourite American Colonel states - America in recent years has lost the plot, it needs to fix the problems in its own country, sort out its border, re-industrialise the country, retrain its diplomats in diplomacy rather than bullying.and stop interferring and causing trouble in other countries.

I didn't mention the Ukrainians in my last post, for the simple reason is that they don't really figure anymore in all of this unfortunately from what I can see.

Many might not agree with this but Ukraine needed a leader cut from the same cloth as Erdoğan or Orban. Someone that is strong and keeps the interests of his or her country in the back of their minds. They should have got the Russians and Americans around the same table and laid it out to them that the country comes first and foremost and that it will not be used as an instrument to bash each other over the head at the expense of the territorial and political integrity of the country. Instead, due to the fact that it was and is a highly corrupt country where money is their god. If you look at all the corruption and government officials being fired, even the oligarch that brought Zelensky to power had his residency raided by the SBU and apparently the corruption charges on him run into the hundreds of millions. The country never had a chance of surviving with all these criminals running the show. Money is all they were interested in and the ill-conceived idea that America would match the Russians in military fire power to keep everything ticking over until Putin got ousted for another Boris Yeltsin type and the Russian army went home with their tail between their legs.

[Del.Monte]

Agree with a lot of what's said above but the last part about strong men - no! The last thing the world needs is more strong men aka dictators. The problem is that many of these countries from Russia, China, North Korea, through to Turkey, Iran etc. is that they have no experience of proper democracy. Bad and all as democracy may sometimes seem, it's better than any of the alternatives.

[KHD]

Agree with a lot of what's said above but the last part about strong men - no! The last thing the world needs is more strong men aka dictators. The problem is that many of these countries from Russia, China, North Korea, through to Turkey, Iran etc. is that they have no experience of proper democracy. Bad and all as democracy may sometimes seem, it's better than any of the alternatives.

Apologies what I mean by a strong leader is someone that has the interests of the future of their country and people at the forefront of their mind when dealing with these guys. Maybe my two examples were a bit out there! Only reason I mention Erdoğan is that his country is in Nato but he still has friendly relations with Russia. Orban because he is in the EU but was not afraid to tell the EU to take a walk when it came to the sanctions and military aid to Ukraine. I guess I mean a leader with a backbone.

Zelensky could have done this but instead became a puppet to the side he thought would be the eventually victors, but its not turning out that way and instead he may not have a country at the end of this, 100s of thousands dead, millions displaced, for what ? He had an opertunity to fix all of this and had the backing of the population of the east but instead blew it and joined the march on the let's destroy Russia train.

[Hairy-Joe]

18 months ago I would have said that China wouldn't be stupid enough to start a war with Taiwan & US. Surely they know they would kill their economy as a result of sanctions and it's tottering already.

Now I'm not so sure. Given the nationalist talk out of China towards Taiwan and the absolute power of Xi, it wouldn't surprise me.

The one thing that did surprise me about China was the speed in lifting of Covid measures after the protests. That was a major surprise.

[Hairy-Joe]

Truth or Doomsday merchants?

It's sobering reading as the NYT doesn't go for sensation.

"Outnumbered and Worn Out, Ukrainians in East Brace for Russian Assault

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/06/worl ... nsive.html

[KHD]

Truth or Doomsday merchants?

It's sobering reading as the NYT doesn't go for sensation.

"Outnumbered and Worn Out, Ukrainians in East Brace for Russian Assault

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/06/worl ... nsive.html

Reality unfortunately. The Ukrainian army are currently in a very desperate state.

[CelticRambler]

Reality unfortunately. The Ukrainian army are currently in a very desperate state.

And yet in not such a desperate state as the Russians.

The credibility of that article is undermined by this one paragraph:

Russian forces have also started to field more sophisticated weaponry, like the T-90 tank, which is equipped with technology capable of detecting the targeting systems of anti-tank weapons like the American made Javelins, limiting their effectiveness.

The Russians have had the T-90 on the battlefield since Feb 24, 2022, and the Ukrainians have been destroying them with Javelins, NLAWs and other such weapons since they were able to get hold of them - about 40 or 50 so far. The Ukrainans have also added about a dozen T-90s to their own fleet, generously gifted to them by the Russians. Plus they have a whole unit dedicated to recovering, fixing and upgrading whatever the Russians can be persuaded to abandon.

And a recent Russian publication did a very interesting "compare and contrast" article on the difference in the treatment of casualties on the two sides, highlighting how the Russians are effectively incapable of saving their injured, due to bad logistics and a lack of doctors, whereas the Ukrainians not only reliably get their casualties off the battlefield but also get them healed and back into action - kinda like any normal western military would. Will see if I can find the link (this evening).

Sure, there are gruesome injuries, and yes, the battle for Bahkmut is ferocious. But the Wagnerites have worn themselves out (i.e. the Ukrainians have beaten them) and they've had to be replaced with Russian naval troops, elite air force troops and another batch of poorly trained, poorly equipped conscripts. Funny, isn't it, how despite sending what's left of their supposedly best forces, Russia's losses in and around the Bahkmut area are accelerating as we get closer to Putin's latest deadline?

[KHD]

And yet in not such a desperate state as the Russians.

The credibility of that article is undermined by this one paragraph:


The Russians have had the T-90 on the battlefield since Feb 24, 2022, and the Ukrainians have been destroying them with Javelins, NLAWs and other such weapons since they were able to get hold of them - about 40 or 50 so far. The Ukrainans have also added about a dozen T-90s to their own fleet, generously gifted to them by the Russians. Plus they have a whole unit dedicated to recovering, fixing and upgrading whatever the Russians can be persuaded to abandon.

And a recent Russian publication did a very interesting "compare and contrast" article on the difference in the treatment of casualties on the two sides, highlighting how the Russians are effectively incapable of saving their injured, due to bad logistics and a lack of doctors, whereas the Ukrainians not only reliably get their casualties off the battlefield but also get them healed and back into action - kinda like any normal western military would. Will see if I can find the link (this evening).

Sure, there are gruesome injuries, and yes, the battle for Bahkmut is ferocious. But the Wagnerites have worn themselves out (i.e. the Ukrainians have beaten them) and they've had to be replaced with Russian naval troops, elite air force troops and another batch of poorly trained, poorly equipped conscripts. Funny, isn't it, how despite sending what's left of their supposedly best forces, Russia's losses in and around the Bahkmut area are accelerating as we get closer to Putin's latest deadline?

Absolute waffle sorry and I usually don't reply to your posts as it is a pointless exercise but I will say this, I don't think you have any grasp whatsoever on what is happening in Ukraine other than your blinkered hatred of the Russians and constantly regurgating tropes that are simply untrue, have been outed as such even by western military leaders and don't stand up to scrutiny. You would do well in educating yourself and reading even Zelushny's interview in Bloomberg. One thing I notice about your post, and I've seen this regularly is that you make no mention of the tragedy that is besetting Ukraine at the moment with regards to the numbers of Ukrainian troops getting killed on the battlefield, or the desperate situation where people are now being forcibly conscripted all over Ukraine to be sent to the front with no training whatsoever. Kids as young as 16 and even people with disabilities. That's how bad the situation is and you sit there and type out that drivel because in your blinkered hatred for the Russians once you read rubbish about Orcs pushing tanks everything is bliss. The likes of yourself, even if Russia took over the whole country and the General Zelushny ordered the standing down of the Ukrainian army, you'd still be arguing that Ukraine is winning the war.

[KHD]

And for such a raggle taggle bunch of incompetents the Russian army are, in your view, where are the thousands of Tanks, hundreds of AD systems, Artillery systems, aircraft that the Ukrainian army once had ? They are gone. The west cannot even supply enough replacement military equipment currently to give the Ukrainians a fighting chance. This shows the level of absolute fantasy your arguments are with regard to your analysis of the military capabilities of the Russian army.

[Del.Monte]

But there are two of you in this discussion! One believes every bit of NATO propaganda and the other every bit of pro-Russian propaganda. As for me, I really don't know but I err on the side of caution in writing off the Russians and I do believe the West rather than Putin created the right environment for this farce to kick-off. So, I'm sitting on the fence.

[KHD]

But there are two of you in this discussion! One believes every bit of NATO propaganda and the other every bit of pro-Russian propaganda. As for me, I really don't know but I err on the side of caution in writing off the Russians and I do believe the West rather than Putin created the right environment for this farce to kick-off. So, I'm sitting on the fence.

Most of the information I actually read is from western sources !!

[Del.Monte]

At this point CR and KHD you should both switch to 2.41 in this Father Ted segment and talk about planting vegetables - much more useful.

[CelticRambler]

One thing I notice about your post, and I've seen this regularly is that you make no mention of the tragedy that is besetting Ukraine at the moment with regards to the numbers of Ukrainian troops getting killed on the battlefield, or the desperate situation where people are now being forcibly conscripted all over Ukraine to be sent to the front with no training whatsoever.

Maybe that's because I have enough direct personal contact with real Ukrainians to not need to acknowledge the tragedy that besets them on a small, Ireland-oriented internet forum.

And for every one of them who has a member of family who's been forcibly conscripted, there are five more who have willingly signed up to rid their country of the invading forces ... most of whom are forcibly conscripted, and sent to their death, for no good reason other than to satisfy the murderous vanity of an old man.

[Setanta]

Maybe that's because I have enough direct personal contact with real Ukrainians to not need to acknowledge the tragedy that besets them on a small, Ireland-oriented internet forum.

And for every one of them who has a member of family who's been forcibly conscripted, there are five more who have willingly signed up to rid their country of the invading forces ... most of whom are forcibly conscripted, and sent to their death, for no good reason other than to satisfy the murderous vanity of an old man.

It looks like bakhmut will be their Stalingrad.....a.bloodbath to wear down Russia (the blood lost,and effort exerted to take it,is mind boggling tbh)while all talk has been of russian assaults planned for spring/summer......not an iota has been said of Ukraine,who the imperative is on to take ground,

It could be a massive Tet style offensive by either side at any day,as the frontline is porous enough with letting civilans through.....it's not unreasonable to suspect each side has moved thousands into position behind front line

[CelticRambler]

There's not much being said on mainstream news channels, because what Ukraine is currently doing is not particularly spectacular. Just targetting and destroying ammo dumps, supply routes, vehicle marshalling grounds and troop muster stations. Day after day after slow, painstaking day.

There are plenty of Russian reports from Russian conscripts describing the hell they're living through, with as much as three quarters of their group being killed or injured before they get anywhere near the frontline. More and more of them are expressing a grudging admiration for the deadly efficiency of the Ukrainian artillery and drone squads ... and wondering WTF their own people are doing.

But hey, that's obviously Western propaganda because it came from Russian sources; much wiser to believe everyone's favourite former US Colonel, coz he's RT and Fox News's go-to guy.