Setanta wrote: ↑Wed Apr 19, 2023 6:52 am
It was the russian army itself mutied at valedudar, (spelling may be off)...but have returned to launching attacks
Ukraine won't be taking Crimea,and noone expects em to attack this spring it,it is however funding and arming an insurgency at meltipol
Yous would be right as regards it needing outside boots on the ground to turn tide of this war,as it's outnumbered massively....
but russians defences are singular in large parts of the front, similar to Kherson as it's traditional methodology for em....in that any breakthrough would be reasonably expected to cause chaos and collapse??
you'd surely have to suspect a push through via meltipol and zaparoica would be most practical,given terrain and buildup of russian troops....they are blowing smoke up people's hole talking about Crimea and have done little to no work in its preparation for attacking crimea,which is a prize of dubious reward in military terms??.....
though the peace talks behind the scene may bring an end to this pointless slaughter yet
Are there signs that peace talks have recommenced?
I find it difficult to believe that Russia will be happy with anything but a complete collapse of Ukraine at this stage, considering all the 'double-dealing' done by UA and NATO in the last decade or so.
Zelensky has stated clearly he will not negotiate with Russia while Putin is in power.
I understand some law was passed to this effect.
That leaves Ru with one option - completely eliminate UA and start anew.
Russia's difficulty in such circumstances would be the numbers left who are willing to carry out terrorists attacks within Russia.
On the other hand one of Russia's stated aims is to 'de-Nazify' UA, which could explain some of the methods being used by Russia during this conflict. Ru seems very determined to reduce UA army personnel while the taking of territory appears to be secondary.
but russians defences are singular in large parts of the front
Early last year that was true, when Ru had a minimum force deployed in UA. As I understand it, that is not the case today. RU has brought in large numbers of personnel and materials as second and even third lines of defence where they deem appropriate.
One must remember that Ru was up against a large military force whose defences had been built up over eight years or so, as well as receiving arms and training from the NATO alliance. That coupled with the understrength 'invasion' explains a lot to me.
The situation has changed considerably.
Russia has boosted its manpower. It has spent months training the new arrivals.
Russia has ramped up its military production. It is only now deploying the newer armaments in UA.
At the same time Ukraine's army has been decimated.
Its existing arms have been destroyed, as has the contributions received from NATO, to the point now that not only has UA's arms been used up, but supplies from NATO has dropped to a dribble, leaving most NATO countries defences vulnerable due to lack of military reserves.
I really cannot see a good outcome for UA in this.
To be honest I now have little empathy with UA as a country. (not referring to people)
They have had multiple chances to come to an acceptable arrangement with RU, and 'did the dirt' on each occasion. I recognise that outside influences were most likely behind their behaviour.
It seems to me that this conflict was deliberately engineered by those influences.
If one accepts that Ru has built up its military forces and armaments in the last year, while at the same time just 'holding ground' (with a couple of notable exceptions) while bombarding any UA attempt at retaking that ground with consequent large losses of UA manpower, then it would not be at all surprising to see a Russian attack once the main UA defensive points are breached (such as Bakhmut).
Ukraine has little defence-in-depth, as I understand it, so would likely be overrun in such an action.
This of course would not happen until Ru itself decided the time is right and their objectives could be achieved by such an action.
Essentially, IMO, the ball is firmly in the Russian court, and they will decide what is the eventual outcome, despite whatever setback a UA offensive might achieve.
Of course my reading of the situation could be completely wrong and the Western propaganda correct - Ukraine has been winning for the past year and will retake Donbass and Crimea with their 'Spring offensive'.
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