2009-2015ish Did anyone predict the housing shortage ?

[John]

I remember during the crazy Celtic tiger days, you had Morgan Kelly and David McWilliams on TV predicting that it would end but I don't recall anyone saying in the early 10s that we should be building social housing, indeed the narrative was pretty much that we had enough houses until the end of time, I can remember Alan Kelly saying we had too many houses in Ireland

[Del.Monte]

Not too mention the report by Peter Bacon that said we had far too many hotels: https://www.irishtimes.com/business/qua ... n-1.770198 Incidentally, he was right and if it wasn't for all the Direct Provision etc. the dire state of of our hotel sector would be more apparent.

[marhay70]

I remember during the crazy Celtic tiger days, you had Morgan Kelly and David McWilliams on TV predicting that it would end but I don't recall anyone saying in the early 10s that we should be building social housing, indeed the narrative was pretty much that we had enough houses until the end of time, I can remember Alan Kelly saying we had too many houses in Ireland

The population of Ireland has increased by over half a million since 2010, not including `100,000 Ukranians and whatever number of welfare tourists have come from other areas. After 2008 the country was littered with ghost estates, particularly in the Midlands, which developers had abandoned and nobody was prepared to take on. Lots of houses were actually demolished, so, much as I hate to admit it, Kelly was probably right. This was also one of the reasons why "vulture funds" were first introduced to the country.
Nobody could have predicted the way the economy would take off again, developers were reluctant to speculate and the Tory parties in Government were content to let "the market" dictate things and completely ignored the need for social housing.

[John]

Not too mention the report by Peter Bacon that said we had far too many hotels: https://www.irishtimes.com/business/qua ... n-1.770198 Incidentally, he was right and if it wasn't for all the Direct Provision etc. the dire state of of our hotel sector would be more apparent.

It's been literally the equivalent of winning the lottery for hotel owners in rural areas who have taken in Ukrainians, Weren't they so lucky that the start of the war in Ukrainian coincided with the end of the PUP covid payment

[knownunknown]

A shortage suggests more than houses there is a demand side as well that must require these houses. The population has grown by about 16% since 2005 so who would have predicted that? (https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/I ... population)

[schmittel]

A shortage suggests more than houses there is a demand side as well that must require these houses. The population has grown by about 16% since 2005 so who would have predicted that? (https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/I ... population)

Probably anybody who noted that the population in the 20 years had also grown by a similar amount

[schmittel]

Mathematically we have enough houses for our current population.
That fact suggest we have a shortage of efficiently used housing stock rather than a shortage of housing stock.

[Bucky]

Bucky's hot take is that it was a bleak period for Bucky. Thankfully my Brother came out as gay which took the heat off me

[Beatty]

Sure they demolished empty housing while our trades persons flew to Australia for work. We could have finished the housing using their labour. At least we would have had something to show for it instead of pumping billions into dead beat banks

[6234567]

Anyone remember that scumbag Fianna Fail politician from Galway at the Remax seminar in 2009 encouraging people to buy now as prices were the lowest they would go?

They all knew the arse was falling out of the market.

[marhay70]

Anyone remember that scumbag Fianna Fail politician from Galway at the Remax seminar in 2009 encouraging people to buy now as prices were the lowest they would go?

They all knew the arse was falling out of the market.

That's a tough one, it's very difficult to single out any scumbag FF politician in particular.