There'll be no border on the island. From before the vote was held, the Serious People in the (Irish) Dept. of Foreign Affairs got their act together and made sure that the Irish position would be integral to any agreement. For all the bad mouthing of the Irish political class that takes place in certain quarters, Ireland has always exercised an unbelievable amount of "soft power" on the global stage, and will continue to reap the benefit of that all the while Britain acts the eejit.
Over on The Other Forum, I see that the same-old-same-old discussion has flickered back into life, with at least some posters thinking that the EU is (yet again
) going to throw Ireland under the bus and out of the Single Market. It's always been impressive how ... insular
has been the perspective on Brexit from people who live in Ireland, when in fact ye've hardly been affected at all. Similarly, there appears to be an assumption that the Plain People of England will, sooner or later, give a damn about what happens to the Irish and do something about it.
They won't, but they will care
a lot about how the current half-baked Brexit messes up their relationship with the rest of Europe, and they'll care even more if the EU decides that the TCA is fatally undermined by Johnson's dishonesty. It's only now, in this first post-pandemic holiday season, that the Plain People of England are coming face-to-face with the practical implications of being outside the EU. These are practical implications that are far more serious than the loss of ParcelMotel or Amazon VAT changes for folks living in Ireland.
Give it three months, for the common voter to experience the reality of Brexit and then wait for the EU to say:
"You think things are bad now? Wait till these concessions expire ..."
FWIW, I think the Tory Rebels will kill this Bill as soon as they can. It'll be an "easy win" for them, as it doesn't affect any part of
their constituents' lives, and it'll serve to remind Johnson of the Last Days of Theresa May.