Vaccine megathread

[schmittel]

True to form, our cabinet is proving to be just as leaky as the "vaccine".

The Cabinet met this morning to decide which of the remaining Covid restrictions can be eased from Friday, October 22nd, in the context of a sharp rise in cases and also in the numbers in hospital in recent weeks.

Sources have said it is now more than likely that vaccine passes will be needed to access hospitality until at least the end of the year, meaning hundreds of thousands of people who have not yet been fully vaccinated will not be able to gain access to indoors hospitality.

So no wining and dining over Christmas for the unvaccinated. I suspect that will give a small bounce maybe to 95% but no more.

And if come January, numbers are low and stable, I daresay the bulk of the unvaccinated will agree staying out of indoor hospitality over the festive season was a small price to pay to flatten the curve. And presumably government then will say, grand we can go back to Plan A and remove the need for vaccine passports.

But on the other hand, what will happen if after a busy festive season of eating, drinking and being merry indoors (for the vaccinated) the numbers are no lower than they are today, or heaven forbid higher?

Surely the government would have to concede that restricting the social lives of a relatively small number of unvaccinated people is making no difference and either introduce another total lockdown and say we will defeat it come what may or remove the rest of the restrictions, and say we will have to learn to live with it as is?

I fear they are painting themselves into a corner here.

[isha]

Luckily I am a great cook and I don't drink

I am actually fine with continued restrictions on the people who don't wish to have these injections. The seasonal rise of the virus and the fast waning efficacy of the injections will eventually allow proof to amass that these are not rational epidemiological measures.

[schmittel]

Luckily I am a great cook and I don't drink

I am actually fine with continued restrictions on the people who don't wish to have these injections. The seasonal rise of the virus and the fast waning efficacy of the injections will eventually allow proof to amass that these are not rational epidemiological measures.

I'm OK with the restrictions in practice, it's the theory I object to!!

[kadman]

I too enjoy many other things besides indoor boozing and eating.
Nature, walking cycling, driving, list is endless.
So I too am ok with ongoing restrictions.

[PureIsle]

I have now gotten used to drinking at home, which I had never done in previous decades.
I do not think this is a good thing, but restrictions prevented me from my usual tipple in good company in my local hostelry.
I was never one for eating out so limitations on that never affected me.

In effect I have become somewhat of a recluse and am happy in my own company with a bottle of booze to keep me company.
Hopefully into the future I can control my consumption and not degenerate into an alcoholic!

... and all for what these days? It cannot be to prevent illness, and with 90%+ vaxxed it cannot be to prevent overrun of our health service, if that service is anywhere close to suitable for its purpose.

So I sit with my bottle and ponder the whys of the actions taken, particularly those that have been designed to instil great fear in the population and in particular limit discussion and exchange of views between friends and family.

...

[kadman]

If the health service is under threat with 90% vaxxed, then it was never fit for purpose.

[Scotty]

If the health service is under threat with 90% vaxxed, then it was never fit for purpose.

90% aren't vaxed though. Barely 75% are.

[isha]

90% aren't vaxed though. Barely 75% are.

Children do not go to hospital with this though, as you know. Very very rarely. RSV and seasonal flu virus, increased by loss of immunity during lockdown - well, that's a different story for children.
So effectively those who get sick from this are 93% vaxxed.
In fact I would go so far as to say that those who really were ever in danger, ie those over 65 and especially with co-morbidities, are even more vaxxed. Unless they are medically not able to tolerate the injections. You only have to look at the charts you posted earlier to see that. I very much doubt there are to many ''anti-vaxxer hold outs'' in the 80+ cohort, or even the 70+ cohort, and yet that is the largest cohort by far dying.

[isha]

I am glad to see the use of antigen tests finally being encouraged. It is amazing this extremely useful tool has been left under-used for so long. I sourced stocks of my own antigen tests for home from https://mybio.ie/ way back in March of this year and always maintain a supply. They are simple spit tests. One of my children lives in Germany and use of these antigen test is completely commonplace there - people will use them before going to a social event or a gathering in a house.

https://www.rte.ie/news/2021/1019/12545 ... ing-covid/

[Scotty]

Children do not go to hospital with this though, as you know. Very very rarely. RSV and seasonal flu virus, increased by loss of immunity during lockdown - well, that's a different story for children.
So effectively those who get sick from this are 93% vaxxed.
In fact I would go so far as to say that those who really were ever in danger, ie those over 65 and especially with co-morbidities, are even more vaxxed. Unless they are medically not able to tolerate the injections. You only have to look at the charts you posted earlier to see that. I very much doubt there are to many ''anti-vaxxer hold outs'' in the 80+ cohort, or even the 70+ cohort, and yet that is the largest cohort by far dying.

I agree completely.

But at the end of the day, and for the purpose of herd immunity, or Community Level Protection, as it's now being called, the actual figure is 74% (ex. Northern Ireland).

Pfizer requested clearance yesterday for 5-12 year olds. If that's passed, and I don't see why it wouldn't be, the trials have been successful, then it may add a few more % to the total but it's unlikely to get us to where we need to be.

For those reasons, I think the restrictions that were kept today will be with us for years to come (barring better vaccines).

[schmittel]

If the health service is under threat with 90% vaxxed, then it was never fit for purpose.

In fairness to the health service, that’s a bit unfair if the so called vaccine does not provide immunity.

[kadman]

I am glad to see the use of antigen tests finally being encouraged. It is amazing this extremely useful tool has been left under-used for so long. I sourced stocks of my own antigen tests for home from https://mybio.ie/ way back in March of this year and always maintain a supply. They are simple spit tests. One of my children lives in Germany and use of these antigen test is completely commonplace there - people will use them before going to a social event or a gathering in a house.

https://www.rte.ie/news/2021/1019/12545 ... ing-covid/

Great, but you wont be getting any if you remain unvaccinated

THE GOVERNMENT IS to increase the use of antigen tests, advising that they be used by fully vaccinated people who are deemed to be close contacts of a confirmed Covid-19 case, but who have no symptoms.

Taoiseach Micheál Martin confirmed this afternoon that antigen tests will have an “enhanced role” as part of a series of new Covid-19 measures announced today, and that tests will be sent to symptomless fully vaccinated close contacts of confirmed cases.

[isha]

But at the end of the day, and for the purpose of herd immunity, or Community Level Protection, as it's now being called, the actual figure is 74% (ex. Northern Ireland).

Zoonotic reservoirs mean there will be no herd immunity.
(I am not going to speak again to the injection of trial products into children, the vast majority of whom are not compromised by Covid - it makes me too angry).

This is an interesting article about this subject and also about cryptic mutations detected in specific sewer sites in NYC likely from animal populations.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/williamhas ... d0b9fd1776

Extracts

A recent paper by Smyth et al. extracted SARS-CoV-2 samples from fourteen wastewater treatment plants in the City. The team developed methods to detect mutations in a critical region of the genome, the receptor-binding domain of the Spike protein.

As expected, they found a number of different Covid-19 variants in their samples, including Alpha, Beta, Delta, and Gamma. They also found four distinct “cryptic" lineages, WNY1, 2, 3, and 4, from three of the wastewater sites. These four cryptic variants yield surprising and troubling results. The receptor-binding domain RNA extracted from the samples contained up to 29 mutations in the four detected variants, some previously observed in the variants of concern or interest and others unique to these samples.
...............

The mutations pictured in figure 1 all occur in the small region of the viral genome sampled by the sewer sleuths. This region specifies the receptor-binding domain, the site of attachment of the virus to the ACE2 receptor on the host cell surface. The receptor-binding domain is also the target for the great majority of protective antibodies. Mutations within this region can profoundly affect transmission and immunity.
........

Smyth et al. speculate that these variants arose not from human sources, but from nonhuman hosts. The speculation is based on several observations. First, the cryptic variants are only observed in some, but not all samples. The authors argue that if variants were prevalent in the human population, they would be found throughout the City and not confined to specific sewer sites. The second is that their observation of pseudotyped viruses carrying the “cryptic” receptor-binding domain are capable of infecting non-human ACE2 receptors, specifically those of rats and mice.

Finally, we know that SARS-CoV-2 can infect many species other than pangolins and humans. Up to 40% of all dogs tested in the US have antibodies to SARS-CoV-2. Several variants infect feral house and field mice. Up to 30% of all white-tailed deer in the northeast test positive for Covid-19 antibodies. Reports of infection of both domestic and large cats held in zoos were reported in the early days of the pandemic.

SARS-CoV-2, like the influenza virus, can engage in zoonotic volleyball. Infections from animals can make their way into humans. SARS-CoV-2 strains have infected mink, and mink have returned the favor by infecting humans.
........

The cryptic variants display the full range of variations that may occur within SARS-CoV-2 RNA. The receptor-binding domain shows here a broader degree of mutability. This epitomizes the potential for viral variation, not only in the receptor-binding domain, but in the rest of the Spike protein and viral genome as well, potentially enhancing virulence, vaccine and monoclonal antibody resistance, immune suppression, and transmission.

As a final thought, it would be remiss not to add the possibility that the extreme variation seen in highly localized New York City cryptic variants is not due to zoonotic variants but rather the effluent from highly regional clusters of variants replicating in human populations, perhaps wards treating immunocompromised patients. Extreme variation of the S protein is documented to occur in such patients. In either case, the final take-home message is that variants documented to date represent only a subset of what we may expect from future SARS-CoV-2 infections.

[schmittel]

I agree completely.

But at the end of the day, and for the purpose of herd immunity, or Community Level Protection, as it's now being called, the actual figure is 74% (ex. Northern Ireland).

Pfizer requested clearance yesterday for 5-12 year olds. If that's passed, and I don't see why it wouldn't be, the trials have been successful, then it may add a few more % to the total but it's unlikely to get us to where we need to be.

For those reasons, I think the restrictions that were kept today will be with us for years to come (barring better vaccines).

But if over 18s population are 93% jabbed, and we’re now being told we need 74% of the entire population jabbed to be safe enough, then it follows that it is the under 18s who are disproportionately obstructing our goal of “Community Level Protection”.

Why then are we restricting over 18s from pubs to cut down transmission yet simultaneously saying school classmates (under 18s) of positive Covid cases are not deemed close contacts and do not have to self isolate?

Have we abandoned all sense of logic, common sense and critical thinking?

[isha]

Great, but you wont be getting any if you remain unvaccinated

I don't mind buying my own - I have been doing so for months including buying them for family members I am a caring citizen

[schmittel]

Great, but you wont be getting any if you remain unvaccinated

My wife thinks the hitherto reluctance to use antigen tests is simply another measure to “encourage” vaccine uptake.

Beginning to think she might be right!

[isha]

Okay last of today (some of ye will be relieved to know )

Here are two images of HSE updates





Some calculations (not done by me initially but clarified by me as I could not understand the chap's sums).

Sept 11 - Oct 9.jpg (48.41 KiB) Viewed 5479 times

Note April to end of June 2021 was the working up to 40% fully vaccinated. So first 3 months -April to June deaths - naturally includes a lot of people who were not yet vaccinated.

[kadman]

90% aren't vaxed though. Barely 75% are.

Michael Martin would not agree with you, he just announced on RTE News that Ireland is 93% vaccinated.

[schmittel]

90% aren't vaxed though. Barely 75% are.

But at the end of the day, and for the purpose of herd immunity, or Community Level Protection, as it's now being called, the actual figure is 74% (ex. Northern Ireland).

If we have almost 75% of the population jabbed and 74% achieves Community Level Protection, do we thus have Community Level Protection?

[PureIsle]

But if over 18s population are 93% jabbed, and we’re now being told we need 74% of the entire population jabbed to be safe enough, then it follows that it is the under 18s who are disproportionately obstructing our goal of “Community Level Protection”.

Why then are we restricting over 18s from pubs to cut down transmission yet simultaneously saying school classmates (under 18s) of positive Covid cases are not deemed close contacts and do not have to self isolate?

Have we abandoned all sense of logic, common sense and critical thinking?

Some believe there never was much logic in what has been done.

[schmittel]

Some believe there never was much logic in what has been done.

Agree there is not much logic in steps being taken by the government, they seem to be making shit up on the fly. What I am more surprised about is that the majority of public seem to be unable/unwilling to pause for a minute, think about it, and say "Hang on a minute, that doesn't make any sense!!"

You can see it on here a lot.

[Scotty]

If we have almost 75% of the population jabbed and 74% achieves Community Level Protection, do we thus have Community Level Protection?

Sorry, I've confused you using 75% on one post and 74% in another.

We've a population of 4.9m. 900k kids and 300k adults are unvaccinated so only about 75% of the population are vaccinated. Community Level protection is not 'achieved'. It's simply a measure of the vaccinated population. It could be 1%, could be 100%.

People keep saying we've 90% vaccinated, or 92,% or 93% or whatever. We don't. We have 75% of the population vaccinated.

[Scotty]

Agree there is not much logic in steps being taken by the government, they seem to be making shit up on the fly. What I am more surprised about is that the majority of public seem to be unable/unwilling to pause for a minute, think about it, and say "Hang on a minute, that doesn't make any sense!!"

You can see it on here a lot.

It makes perfect sense. Just because it makes no sense to you, doesn't mean it's wrong. You don't have to understand it. Luckily for you there is a whole team of experts who are far higher qualified than you and I to make the decisions on our behalf.

[Scotty]

Zoonotic reservoirs mean there will be no herd immunity.

Never mentioned anything about acheiving herd immunity. Simply that c.75% are vaccinated. Try and keep up.

I am not going to speak again to the injection of trial products into children

What would you say is the most tested vaccine in history?

[schmittel]

Sorry, I've confused you using 75% on one post and 74% in another.

We've a population of 4.9m. 900k kids and 300k adults are unvaccinated so only about 75% of the population are vaccinated. Community Level protection is not 'achieved'. It's simply a measure of the vaccinated population. It could be 1%, could be 100%.

People keep saying we've 90% vaccinated, or 92,% or 93% or whatever. We don't. We have 75% of the population vaccinated.

Ok I think I get it now. The confusion was nothing to do with 74/75%. It was that you equated herd immunity with Community Level Protection.