Vaccine megathread

[schmittel]

Here are figures, with the caveat I'm no mathematician!

I used the vaccine surveillance report published weekly by the HSPC - annoyingly they don't leave links up to previous weeks, but I had a saved copy from the October 16th issue:

Screenshot 2021-11-19 at 20.14.53.png (168.16 KiB) Viewed 3316 times

With both of these reports we can compare the situation from October 16th - November 13th eg subtracting the 438 ICU admissions reported to Oct 16th from the 589 reported to November tells us that there were 151 ICU admissions between these two dates.

Of the 151:

71 unvaccinated
68 vaccine breakthroughs/fully vaccinated
12 partially vaccinated

121 with underlying conditions (80.5%)

Of the 121:

65 vaccine breakthroughs/fully vaccinated
thus 121 - 65:
56 unvaccinated

Thus 56/151 = 37% are "unjabbed and immunocompromised" as per your man's tweet. Not too far off his 38%

In fairness to the vaccine it is striking that of the non underlying conditions 27/30 or 90% of them are unvaccinated, clearly showing that if you have no underlying conditions the vaccine is working at reducing your likelihood to end up in ICU. I was surprised at this. based n the UK figures I expected this to be fairly evenly split between vexed and unvaxxed.

But the figures also show, assuming you accept that even pre-Covid it is kind of obvious to expect that the immunocompromised would be disproportionately represented in ICU, then this pandemic of the unvaccinated nonsense is a bit disingenuous.

If you're going to engage in finger wagging it really should be directed at the 27 unvaccinated people without underlying conditions.

Or to put it another way, 18% of the people in ICU. But that probably would not make for quite so catchy headlines.

[schmittel]

I did the same comparison on this deaths report from 13th November and the one shown below. Some interesting results.

Of the 249 deaths between October 16th and November 13th:

159 or 64% - fully vaccinated
65 or 26% - unvaccinated
25 or 10% - partially vaccinated

[schmittel]

And for deaths between 23rd October - 13th November

177 deaths
121 - 69% fully vaccinated
36 - 20% unvaccinated
20 - 11% partially vaccinated

Unfortunately cannot find the figures for 30th October.

Between 6th November and 13th November:

45 deaths
41 - 91% fully vaccinated
0 - 0% unvaccinated
4 - 9% partially vaccinated

[isha]

Thanks for figures, Schmittel. The framing of the information being dispensed about ''unvaccinated'' putting pressure on ICU is largely false and of the nature of propaganda.

Article by Olga Cronin of Irish Council for Civil Liberties.

https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/nega ... -1.4732575

The idea that people would be discriminated against on the basis of their Covid-19 immunity status was described as a scary possibility in April 2020 by the WHO special envoy on Covid-19, David Nabarro. “It will be a frightening schism. Those with antibodies will be able to travel and work, and the rest will be discriminated against,” he warned.

Nineteen months later, people who are vaccinated against, or recovered from, Covid-19 are able to access certain aspects of normal society in Ireland using a Covid pass. Those unable, or unwilling, to show proof of such are denied that access.

Our rights to freedom of movement, privacy, work, education and participation in cultural life, while incredibly important, are of course not absolute. They can be limited in certain circumstances to protect other rights, such as life and health, during a pandemic.

However, any rights-limiting measure, such as the Covid pass, must respect the principle of proportionality enshrined in law and must be implemented without discrimination. The measure must be shown to be necessary and the least detrimental measure available to achieve the aim pursued, in this case the protection of people from Covid-19.

To assess the proportionality of the Covid pass system, evidence must be established to demonstrate both effectiveness and assess the negative impact on rights. These tests, to ensure compliance with human rights, can be determined only by regular review of the system.

Since its introduction in July 2021 there has not been any such review or any evidence seen of the extent to which the Covid pass system has curbed Covid-19.

Vaccines are not mandatory in Ireland. To mandate them would raise serious ethical and legal questions about consent. As such, enforcing a vaccine passport disproportionately affects the fundamental rights of those unvaccinated.

Negative testing
Crucially, unlike many other EU countries, Ireland’s vaccine passport does not include an option for negative testing. This omission is particularly perplexing given our extremely high vaccination rate, and the fact that the underpinning legislation provides for the possibility that testing could be included in the system.

Although there are varying levels of vaccination across different jurisdictions, Belgium, Cyprus, Italy, Luxembourg, Galicia and Canary Islands in Spain, and France all include testing where access restrictions are imposed based on health status. When Denmark used a pass, it included testing. The Israeli system includes a 72-hour pass via testing.

The Irish Council for Civil Liberties (ICCL) wrote to the Government in August to ask if and when this would be given effect. We have not received a response.

Etc

[PureIsle]

Thanks for figures, Schmittel. The framing of the information being dispensed about ''unvaccinated'' putting pressure on ICU is largely false and of the nature of propaganda.

Article by Olga Cronin of Irish Council for Civil Liberties.

https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/nega ... -1.4732575

To assess the proportionality of the Covid pass system, evidence must be established to demonstrate both effectiveness and assess the negative impact on rights.

I don't know why anyone even bothers with proportionality when there is no health reason whatsoever, that I am aware of, for the existence of the Covid Pass.

Maybe someone who knows of such reason/s would enlighten me .... presently I am just not seeing it.

[PureIsle]

Analysis of numbers here

[schmittel]

For anyone into looking at figures, the English vaccine surveillance report is well worth a read. It's far more detailed than our own, broken down by age and includes details on cases numbers as well as emergency care and deaths. It also presents the figures for unvaccinated and vaccinated as per 100,00 which makes comparisons a lot easier. Crucially they provide links to previous weeks reports so you can spot any trending in the numbers.

Their data backs up the vaccines effectiveness against ICU and death, but there are worrying numbers re positive cases in the latest report.

Screenshot 2021-11-20 at 15.07.38.png (154.72 KiB) Viewed 3514 times

In every age group from 30-79 there are significantly more covid cases in the vaccinated than the unvaccinated, and in some age groups the cases in the vaccinated are more than twice as high.

The vaccinated in these age groups are disproportionately contracting and thus transmitting the disease. It is reasonable to assume our figures are at least similiar, but likely even more disproportionate given that we have covid certs and the unvaccinated are not mixing to the same extent as they are in England.

[kadman]

I spent another day in a prestigious well known hospital in Ireland. And being unvaccinated I was more than happy to wear a mask 24/7 in respect of the healthcare team working on me, and for my welfare, even though I was in a single room on my own.

But I was constantly reminded that I did not need a mask as I was on my own, and to take it off more than once. I thought it went against government advice, but I kept it on when anyone else came in to see me, as well as when I was being operated on while awake.

The team were absolutely fabulous, and dont hate the unvaccinated like the government want them too. Their only interest is in helping us, no matter what or who we are. We are all viewed the same by them, its the government who differentiate.

What happens when the unvaccinated masses get covid, like we are being blamed for, passes 300K, then we will all have immunity.......except we wont, we cant..........the income stream stops for pharma, so you need to keep getting the vaccine, and on, and on.......

[isha]

One of the things that was said by many earlier in this ..whatever it is...was get a vaccine because we must keep case numbers down, so as to prevent opportunities for mutation of the virus. Where there are more cases, there is more likelihood of viral mutation, was/is the argument. And yet with this vaccine the unvaccinated between the ages of 30 and 80 are showing lower cases per 100,000, and numbers are comparable between 18 - 30 years old.

And with higher cases among vaccinated it is more likely that the selective pressure of mutation would be on the S-protein, which is the infectious part of the virus, as that is the only part the vaccine targets. More cases among vaccinees favours more infectious mutations, by logic.
That is why targeted vaccination of vulnerable groups would be better - it is not too late to do this. Do not vaccinate children and only offer boosters to those who are vulnerable.

Re ICU and death per 100,000 in unvaccinated it is not broken down there either into immuno-compromised etc. Like we have been chatting about. Time will tell with a lot of this stuff - we are in the middle of things.

[isha]

I'm glad to hear you are being well looked after, Kadman, and hope you are almost out of the woods.

[kadman]

I'm glad to hear you are being well looked after, Kadman, and hope you are almost out of the woods.

Thankyou, I am in brilliant fettle now. I am now stent number 6, after the 3 fitted yesterday

[schmittel]

Re ICU and death per 100,000 in unvaccinated it is not broken down there either into immuno-compromised etc. Like we have been chatting about. Time will tell with a lot of this stuff - we are in the middle of things.

I'd love to see the English stats broken down by ethnicity also. Have read some studies suggesting covid as a disproportionately severe effect on BAME population. English numbers would be high enough to see if it was significant in ICU numbers etc.

[isha]

Even though I loathe one of the contributors to this idea -Foucault - it is an interesting political theory to keep in mind right now. I only recently found there was a name and theory for this, it corresponds with ideas that have been in my head for a while. Nothing new under the sun.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Biopolitics

It posits a relationship between governments and the people whereby the rulers charge themselves with managing the biological life of the masses, maintaining the hygiene of the herd, basically. The human is a biological unit to be managed as such, and not as an individual, with agency and a moral existence, but rather as an aggregate, a biomass.

[kadman]

On reflection, in relation to the media bulletins that are regularly played on the tv.
I noticed the recovery room I was in, had at least 10-12 empty beds. Which i thought was strange if we are to believe that the
bed capacity is coming under severe pressure according to the news. I only saw one ambulance calling into the ambulance area
that i could see from my window. It was actually very quiet.
And I remember any news bulletin that had masses of masked, ppe covered blues, and turmoil in hospitals due to covid in the early days.
I never saw a single blue polythene ppe covered, plastic mask covered person anywhere which I thought I would have done if I was to go by the news bulletins.

Its quite clear that the news coverage is very selective in what you are shown, and not what is the reality. This was in relation to a private hospital scenario that i was sent to from a public hospital. The public hospital on the other hand appeared to be a lot busier on all fronts.

Just my observation of things in the hospitals during the pandemic, I thought you might like to know what its like on the ground.

[PureIsle]

This graphic, should it be confirmed, is rather disturbing for those who have taken the jab, with the added worry that there are a number of years to go before long term effects can be determined.




It would be useful if others could try to determine the accuracy of the graph, and if possible what it might look like if extended into November, as it is possible for those lines to cross again to show a better outcome for the vaxxed.

[Guburnor]

@PureIsle - when posting stuff like this, could you please provide links to the source where you found it? I appreciate there is a t.me/LeakyVax watermark, but that's just a Telegram title page. Is there a direct link?

[PureIsle]

@PureIsle - when posting stuff like this, could you please provide links to the source where you found it? I appreciate there is a t.me/LeakyVax watermark, but that's just a Telegram title page. Is there a direct link?

This is the Telegram post which should open in a browser (does here)



I have come across it is several places but here is one twitter reference



The pic itself is at this URL

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FEq_W2sX0AsILsR?format=jpg

The reason I asked others to have a look for something to confirm or debunk this is I am uncertain of the validity of the source, although it does purport to be derived from official data.

Hopefully the above is what you required.

Based on the last sentence of the Telegram post, the graph appears to be just a use of numbers to show what was required of whoever generated it.

@Guburnor
Maybe the two posts should be deleted?

[isha]

Hi PureIsle, people are talking about it. But some are also saying to be aware of a thing called Simpsons Paradox when it comes to statistical analysis. This paradox states that trends that MAY appear in groups of data may not be the same as trends that appear when the data is divided into smaller groups. Though others may be able to explain that paradox more precisely. It may apply here, it may not.

There are scattered pieces of information emerging eg higher non covid deaths in home than normal, higher rates of death in young men, still births, but so far we cannot say anything is factual or a trend, or even connected to anything particular. Though some things are beginning to be looked at more officially eg Public Health Scotland has initiated an official enquiry into unusually high number of stillbirth babies in September.

Changes in demographic trends tend to be revealed and interpreted slowly as far as I can make out.
I don't know what is or is not happening. I trust hardly anyone saying anything!

Though uniquely in the case of covid vaccines any safety signal seems (to me) to be being minimised by many. Time will tell.

[isha]

This is a very interesting idea - I do not know whether it is right or wrong! But it is interesting. Humidity is important for the epithelium of our mucous membranes and to help keep the mucosal microbiome strong to resist respiratory diseases. Interesting possible explanations in thread re climatic influence on Covid.

[Abella]

Gibraltar 100% vaccinated and shutting down due to increased covid cases, it will continue everywhere until the population finally say no more.

[Guburnor]

@Guburnor
Maybe the two posts should be deleted?

More than happy to leave the posts in place. The first telegram link was what I was looking for - a direct link so people can explore it further if they wish. In this instance for example the accompanying text is helpful for context.

Apologies, I should not have said "stuff like this" as if I was making a judgement call on the material/source. That's not my place, and the same applies to all material/sources, no matter what show or purport to show!

[Scotty]

This graphic, should it be confirmed, is rather disturbing for those who have taken the jab, with the added worry that there are a number of years to go before long term effects can be determined.




It would be useful if others could try to determine the accuracy of the graph, and if possible what it might look like if extended into November, as it is possible for those lines to cross again to show a better outcome for the vaxxed.

PureIsle I wonder if you are misreading that data? It's not the "death rate of unvaccinated per 100k of unvaccinated" vrs the "death rate of vaccinated per 100k of vaccinated" though Leaky Vaccine have worded it is if it is. If you download the excel files on the gov site (ie. the link you already posted) you will see it's 100k of "total age group population". So therefor, it makes perfect sense that as less and less of the population are unvaccinated the unvaccinated death rate within the general population will decease, and vise versa for vaccinated.

This graphic, should it be confirmed, is rather disturbing for those who have taken the jab.

On the contrary, the twitter post says...

Those aged 10-59 who have received two doses of the COVID-19 vaccines available in England have recently begun dying at just over twice the rate of the unvaccinated in the same age group.

... only twice as many, despite there being 7.5 times more vaccinated than unvaccinated people in England. Therefor, the figures prove that vaccinations have hugely reduced the death rate per 100k in the 10-59 age group (though this could be coupled with lockdowns but the data doesn't account for that).

[Scotty]

Of the 151:

71 unvaccinated
68 vaccine breakthroughs/fully vaccinated
12 partially vaccinated

121 with underlying conditions (80.5%)

Of the 121:

65 vaccine breakthroughs/fully vaccinated
thus 121 - 65:
56 unvaccinated

Thus 56/151 = 37% are "unjabbed and immunocompromised" as per your man's tweet. Not too far off his 38%

In fairness to the vaccine it is striking that of the non underlying conditions 27/30 or 90% of them are unvaccinated, clearly showing that if you have no underlying conditions the vaccine is working at reducing your likelihood to end up in ICU.

This is a staggering statistic if you've got your sums correct. You're saying of the 151 people admitted to ICU in the last month that only THREE people, 1.9%, were vaccinated with no underlying health condition. The other 98.1% were either unvaccinated or had a pre-existing condition or both.

And 27 admitted unvaccinated but no pre-existing conditions. If we extrapolate the figures out in accordance with vaccination rates based on 93% of population being vaccinated we get...
(27/7)x100 = 385 in ICU if vaccines didn't exist.
(3/93)x100 = 3.2 in ICU if 100% vaccinated.

That means a healthy but unvaccinated person is 385/3.2= 120 TIMES more likely to end up in ICU than a healthy vaccinated person. That's incredible. With stats like that it's easy to see why more and more countries are mandating vaccines.

[schmittel]

This is a staggering statistic if you've got your sums correct. You're saying of the 151 people admitted to ICU in the last month that only THREE people, 1.9%, were vaccinated with no underlying health condition. The other 98.1% were either unvaccinated or had a pre-existing condition or both.

And 27 admitted unvaccinated but no pre-existing conditions. If we extrapolate the figures out in accordance with vaccination rates based on 93% of population being vaccinated we get...
(27/7)x100 = 385 in ICU if vaccines didn't exist.
(3/93)x100 = 3.2 in ICU if 100% vaccinated.

That means a healthy but unvaccinated person is 385/3.2= 120 TIMES more likely to end up in ICU than a healthy vaccinated person. That's incredible. With stats like that it's easy to see why more and more countries are mandating vaccines.

Sure, and using the same sort of ifs and extrapolations, based on last weeks data we’d have zero deaths if vaccines didn’t exist.

Based on UK data of cases the vaccinated are about twice as more likely to catch it, and thus spread it.

Applying the sort of ifs and extrapolations you posted above to that data, you could claim all sorts of sunlit uplands would be possible in a world without vaccines.

[Scotty]

Sure, and using the same sort of ifs and extrapolations, based on last weeks data we’d have zero deaths if vaccines didn’t exist.

Based on UK data of cases the vaccinated are about twice as more likely to catch it, and thus spread it.

Applying the sort of ifs and extrapolations you posted above to that data, you could claim all sorts of sunlit uplands would be possible in a world without vaccines.

Ifs? What ifs? What are you referring to? Are you saying my figures are wrong?

According to YOUR figures, of those with no underlying conditions, the unvaccinated are 120 times a higher risk than the vaccinated. There's no 'ifs' there. They are the facts (unless your figures are wrong - I haven't checked them).