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Anyone still glued to this?

News, geopolitics, impact, consequences etc from the Ukraine Russia conflict
KHD
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Re: Anyone still glued to this?

#526

Post by KHD »

Del.Monte wrote: Sat Feb 04, 2023 10:20 pm A conflict with China needs to be headed off now not when it happens and reunification with Taiwan will only happen through diplomacy and time being the healer. Any conflict involving the USA and China over events that took place the best part of 100 years ago is absolute lunacy. There are real problems in the world without this sort of nonsense and China needs to be brought onside rather than pushed into a some bizarre alliance with Putin, North Korea and Iran.
I don't mean to bash America as I love the country, I have been over many times and have good friends there. American is a more attractive system than China or Russia. But as my favourite American Colonel states - America in recent years has lost the plot, it needs to fix the problems in its own country, sort out its border, re-industrialise the country, retrain its diplomats in diplomacy rather than bullying.and stop interferring and causing trouble in other countries.

I didn't mention the Ukrainians in my last post, for the simple reason is that they don't really figure anymore in all of this unfortunately from what I can see.

Many might not agree with this but Ukraine needed a leader cut from the same cloth as Erdoğan or Orban. Someone that is strong and keeps the interests of his or her country in the back of their minds. They should have got the Russians and Americans around the same table and laid it out to them that the country comes first and foremost and that it will not be used as an instrument to bash each other over the head at the expense of the territorial and political integrity of the country. Instead, due to the fact that it was and is a highly corrupt country where money is their god. If you look at all the corruption and government officials being fired, even the oligarch that brought Zelensky to power had his residency raided by the SBU and apparently the corruption charges on him run into the hundreds of millions. The country never had a chance of surviving with all these criminals running the show. Money is all they were interested in and the ill-conceived idea that America would match the Russians in military fire power to keep everything ticking over until Putin got ousted for another Boris Yeltsin type and the Russian army went home with their tail between their legs.
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Del.Monte
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Re: Anyone still glued to this?

#527

Post by Del.Monte »

Agree with a lot of what's said above but the last part about strong men - no! The last thing the world needs is more strong men aka dictators. The problem is that many of these countries from Russia, China, North Korea, through to Turkey, Iran etc. is that they have no experience of proper democracy. Bad and all as democracy may sometimes seem, it's better than any of the alternatives.
'no more blah blah blah'
KHD
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Re: Anyone still glued to this?

#528

Post by KHD »

Del.Monte wrote: Sat Feb 04, 2023 10:55 pm Agree with a lot of what's said above but the last part about strong men - no! The last thing the world needs is more strong men aka dictators. The problem is that many of these countries from Russia, China, North Korea, through to Turkey, Iran etc. is that they have no experience of proper democracy. Bad and all as democracy may sometimes seem, it's better than any of the alternatives.
Apologies what I mean by a strong leader is someone that has the interests of the future of their country and people at the forefront of their mind when dealing with these guys. Maybe my two examples were a bit out there! Only reason I mention Erdoğan is that his country is in Nato but he still has friendly relations with Russia. Orban because he is in the EU but was not afraid to tell the EU to take a walk when it came to the sanctions and military aid to Ukraine. I guess I mean a leader with a backbone.

Zelensky could have done this but instead became a puppet to the side he thought would be the eventually victors, but its not turning out that way and instead he may not have a country at the end of this, 100s of thousands dead, millions displaced, for what ? He had an opertunity to fix all of this and had the backing of the population of the east but instead blew it and joined the march on the let's destroy Russia train.
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Re: Anyone still glued to this?

#529

Post by Hairy-Joe »

18 months ago I would have said that China wouldn't be stupid enough to start a war with Taiwan & US. Surely they know they would kill their economy as a result of sanctions and it's tottering already.

Now I'm not so sure. Given the nationalist talk out of China towards Taiwan and the absolute power of Xi, it wouldn't surprise me.

The one thing that did surprise me about China was the speed in lifting of Covid measures after the protests. That was a major surprise.
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Re: Anyone still glued to this?

#530

Post by Hairy-Joe »

Truth or Doomsday merchants?

It's sobering reading as the NYT doesn't go for sensation.

"Outnumbered and Worn Out, Ukrainians in East Brace for Russian Assault

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/06/worl ... nsive.html
KHD
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Re: Anyone still glued to this?

#531

Post by KHD »

Hairy-Joe wrote: Tue Feb 07, 2023 8:56 am Truth or Doomsday merchants?

It's sobering reading as the NYT doesn't go for sensation.

"Outnumbered and Worn Out, Ukrainians in East Brace for Russian Assault

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/06/worl ... nsive.html
Reality unfortunately. The Ukrainian army are currently in a very desperate state.
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Re: Anyone still glued to this?

#532

Post by CelticRambler »

KHD wrote: Tue Feb 07, 2023 9:51 am Reality unfortunately. The Ukrainian army are currently in a very desperate state.
And yet in not such a desperate state as the Russians.

The credibility of that article is undermined by this one paragraph:
Russian forces have also started to field more sophisticated weaponry, like the T-90 tank, which is equipped with technology capable of detecting the targeting systems of anti-tank weapons like the American made Javelins, limiting their effectiveness.
The Russians have had the T-90 on the battlefield since Feb 24, 2022, and the Ukrainians have been destroying them with Javelins, NLAWs and other such weapons since they were able to get hold of them - about 40 or 50 so far. The Ukrainans have also added about a dozen T-90s to their own fleet, generously gifted to them by the Russians. Plus they have a whole unit dedicated to recovering, fixing and upgrading whatever the Russians can be persuaded to abandon.

And a recent Russian publication did a very interesting "compare and contrast" article on the difference in the treatment of casualties on the two sides, highlighting how the Russians are effectively incapable of saving their injured, due to bad logistics and a lack of doctors, whereas the Ukrainians not only reliably get their casualties off the battlefield but also get them healed and back into action - kinda like any normal western military would. Will see if I can find the link (this evening).

Sure, there are gruesome injuries, and yes, the battle for Bahkmut is ferocious. But the Wagnerites have worn themselves out (i.e. the Ukrainians have beaten them) and they've had to be replaced with Russian naval troops, elite air force troops and another batch of poorly trained, poorly equipped conscripts. Funny, isn't it, how despite sending what's left of their supposedly best forces, Russia's losses in and around the Bahkmut area are accelerating as we get closer to Putin's latest deadline?
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Re: Anyone still glued to this?

#533

Post by KHD »

CelticRambler wrote: Tue Feb 07, 2023 10:24 am And yet in not such a desperate state as the Russians.

The credibility of that article is undermined by this one paragraph:


The Russians have had the T-90 on the battlefield since Feb 24, 2022, and the Ukrainians have been destroying them with Javelins, NLAWs and other such weapons since they were able to get hold of them - about 40 or 50 so far. The Ukrainans have also added about a dozen T-90s to their own fleet, generously gifted to them by the Russians. Plus they have a whole unit dedicated to recovering, fixing and upgrading whatever the Russians can be persuaded to abandon.

And a recent Russian publication did a very interesting "compare and contrast" article on the difference in the treatment of casualties on the two sides, highlighting how the Russians are effectively incapable of saving their injured, due to bad logistics and a lack of doctors, whereas the Ukrainians not only reliably get their casualties off the battlefield but also get them healed and back into action - kinda like any normal western military would. Will see if I can find the link (this evening).

Sure, there are gruesome injuries, and yes, the battle for Bahkmut is ferocious. But the Wagnerites have worn themselves out (i.e. the Ukrainians have beaten them) and they've had to be replaced with Russian naval troops, elite air force troops and another batch of poorly trained, poorly equipped conscripts. Funny, isn't it, how despite sending what's left of their supposedly best forces, Russia's losses in and around the Bahkmut area are accelerating as we get closer to Putin's latest deadline?
Absolute waffle sorry and I usually don't reply to your posts as it is a pointless exercise but I will say this, I don't think you have any grasp whatsoever on what is happening in Ukraine other than your blinkered hatred of the Russians and constantly regurgating tropes that are simply untrue, have been outed as such even by western military leaders and don't stand up to scrutiny. You would do well in educating yourself and reading even Zelushny's interview in Bloomberg. One thing I notice about your post, and I've seen this regularly is that you make no mention of the tragedy that is besetting Ukraine at the moment with regards to the numbers of Ukrainian troops getting killed on the battlefield, or the desperate situation where people are now being forcibly conscripted all over Ukraine to be sent to the front with no training whatsoever. Kids as young as 16 and even people with disabilities. That's how bad the situation is and you sit there and type out that drivel because in your blinkered hatred for the Russians once you read rubbish about Orcs pushing tanks everything is bliss. The likes of yourself, even if Russia took over the whole country and the General Zelushny ordered the standing down of the Ukrainian army, you'd still be arguing that Ukraine is winning the war.
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Re: Anyone still glued to this?

#534

Post by KHD »

And for such a raggle taggle bunch of incompetents the Russian army are, in your view, where are the thousands of Tanks, hundreds of AD systems, Artillery systems, aircraft that the Ukrainian army once had ? They are gone. The west cannot even supply enough replacement military equipment currently to give the Ukrainians a fighting chance. This shows the level of absolute fantasy your arguments are with regard to your analysis of the military capabilities of the Russian army.
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Re: Anyone still glued to this?

#535

Post by Del.Monte »

But there are two of you in this discussion! One believes every bit of NATO propaganda and the other every bit of pro-Russian propaganda. :mrgreen: As for me, I really don't know but I err on the side of caution in writing off the Russians and I do believe the West rather than Putin created the right environment for this farce to kick-off. So, I'm sitting on the fence. :)
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KHD
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Re: Anyone still glued to this?

#536

Post by KHD »

Del.Monte wrote: Tue Feb 07, 2023 11:34 am But there are two of you in this discussion! One believes every bit of NATO propaganda and the other every bit of pro-Russian propaganda. :mrgreen: As for me, I really don't know but I err on the side of caution in writing off the Russians and I do believe the West rather than Putin created the right environment for this farce to kick-off. So, I'm sitting on the fence. :)
Most of the information I actually read is from western sources !!
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Re: Anyone still glued to this?

#537

Post by Del.Monte »

At this point CR and KHD you should both switch to 2.41 in this Father Ted segment and talk about planting vegetables - much more useful. :mrgreen:

'no more blah blah blah'
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Re: Anyone still glued to this?

#538

Post by CelticRambler »

KHD wrote: Tue Feb 07, 2023 11:26 amOne thing I notice about your post, and I've seen this regularly is that you make no mention of the tragedy that is besetting Ukraine at the moment with regards to the numbers of Ukrainian troops getting killed on the battlefield, or the desperate situation where people are now being forcibly conscripted all over Ukraine to be sent to the front with no training whatsoever.
Maybe that's because I have enough direct personal contact with real Ukrainians to not need to acknowledge the tragedy that besets them on a small, Ireland-oriented internet forum.

And for every one of them who has a member of family who's been forcibly conscripted, there are five more who have willingly signed up to rid their country of the invading forces ... most of whom are forcibly conscripted, and sent to their death, for no good reason other than to satisfy the murderous vanity of an old man.
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Re: Anyone still glued to this?

#539

Post by Setanta »

CelticRambler wrote: Tue Feb 07, 2023 1:11 pm Maybe that's because I have enough direct personal contact with real Ukrainians to not need to acknowledge the tragedy that besets them on a small, Ireland-oriented internet forum.

And for every one of them who has a member of family who's been forcibly conscripted, there are five more who have willingly signed up to rid their country of the invading forces ... most of whom are forcibly conscripted, and sent to their death, for no good reason other than to satisfy the murderous vanity of an old man.
It looks like bakhmut will be their Stalingrad.....a.bloodbath to wear down Russia (the blood lost,and effort exerted to take it,is mind boggling tbh)while all talk has been of russian assaults planned for spring/summer......not an iota has been said of Ukraine,who the imperative is on to take ground,

It could be a massive Tet style offensive by either side at any day,as the frontline is porous enough with letting civilans through.....it's not unreasonable to suspect each side has moved thousands into position behind front line
"Celtic jerseys are not for second best, they don't shrink to fit inferior players." - Jock Stein
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Re: Anyone still glued to this?

#540

Post by CelticRambler »

There's not much being said on mainstream news channels, because what Ukraine is currently doing is not particularly spectacular. Just targetting and destroying ammo dumps, supply routes, vehicle marshalling grounds and troop muster stations. Day after day after slow, painstaking day.

There are plenty of Russian reports from Russian conscripts describing the hell they're living through, with as much as three quarters of their group being killed or injured before they get anywhere near the frontline. More and more of them are expressing a grudging admiration for the deadly efficiency of the Ukrainian artillery and drone squads ... and wondering WTF their own people are doing.

But hey, that's obviously Western propaganda because it came from Russian sources; much wiser to believe everyone's favourite former US Colonel, coz he's RT and Fox News's go-to guy.
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Re: Anyone still glued to this?

#541

Post by Hairy-Joe »

I'm also reminded of WW2 and the summer of '40 to end of '42 where the Allies looked completely beaten. Loosing in North Africa, the Atlantic, France beaten, Malta hanging on etc. Yet the Allies won.

Russia has used a massive amount of it's newer armaments. Yes it has hundreds of acres of old equipment but not all of it is serviceable. They have been trying to take Bakhmut for months and are loosing so much armaments. From reports, it looks like Russia is taking troops from the Zaporizhia to support their push in Bakhmut. Is that similar to Hitler pulling troops from the southern Volga, allowing the encirclement?

The one thing that's certain is Russia won't win. The EU leaders have gone too far to pull their support as they know Latvia, Estonia and Lithuania would be following Moldova in being next invaded by Russia.
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Re: Anyone still glued to this?

#542

Post by Hairy-Joe »

Also, given the massive amounts of equipment Ukraine captured after the fall of Kerson, I've not heard of it being used. I imagine it's waiting for the push.

Another elephant is Belarus, as Lukashenko has ran to the UAE, along with the family.....
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isha
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Re: Anyone still glued to this?

#543

Post by isha »

Hairy-Joe wrote: Tue Feb 07, 2023 3:56 pm

The one thing that's certain is Russia won't win.

What does that look like - Russia not winning?
Really visualise it.
What way does Russia look slinking back, defeated, a smashed power, it's tail between its legs, made fools of in front of the whole world?

I just don't see that happening, not because I think Russia will be militarily victorious. I think they can't win militarily against NATO. (Although with Iran, India, China, it might even pull that off, but I don't see it.)

What happens when Russia is losing, when it's clear to them that they won't win, is the Russian oligarchy has nothing left to lose. And why not use nuclear weapons when you have nothing left to lose?

Which is why all this fighting talk from all sides needs to stop. Peace negotiations now.
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Re: Anyone still glued to this?

#544

Post by Hairy-Joe »

Russia can't win. They won't be able to take the entire country. If they do hold onto a piece, there will be guerilla attacks for years. Economic sanctions will remain and the economy will suffer massively.

The Russian Oligarchy want to spend their millions in Paris, New York, Dubai, etc like they always have. They don't want to be stuck on visits to Sochi without their big cars, luxury shopping trips, etc. Any wealth they have in Russia could be impounded for "war efforts".

It could end up with Ukraine not winning either if Russia holds onto a piece of Ukraine.
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Re: Anyone still glued to this?

#545

Post by knownunknown »

Del.Monte wrote: Tue Feb 07, 2023 11:34 am But there are two of you in this discussion! One believes every bit of NATO propaganda and the other every bit of pro-Russian propaganda. :mrgreen: As for me, I really don't know but I err on the side of caution in writing off the Russians and I do believe the West rather than Putin created the right environment for this farce to kick-off. So, I'm sitting on the fence. :)
It’s impossible to know the true numbers of deaths and equipment etc.. due to the fog of war. It’s all belief at various levels. The Russians are not nearly as affected by the war as the Ukrainians though, it’s the Ukrainians that are paying the price by losing their homes, electricity, business, jobs, farms, livelihoods, apartments, shopping centres, schools, etc…

Anyone hinting at Ukraine winning (like most of western media) is either lying or delusional in my opinion. The winning conditions Zelensky has outlined are far removed from reality and will never be achieved.
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Re: Anyone still glued to this?

#546

Post by CelticRambler »

isha wrote: Tue Feb 07, 2023 4:07 pm What does that look like - Russia not winning?
Really visualise it.
...
What happens when Russia is losing, when it's clear to them that they won't win, is the Russian oligarchy has nothing left to lose. And why not use nuclear weapons when you have nothing left to lose?
The oligarchy will most certainly not want anyone using nuclear weapons, because that will ruin any chance they have of getting out of this mess. Russia "not winning" will look like the break-up of the Soviet Union, and the break-up of Yugoslavia.

There are already cracks in the so-called Commonwealth of Independent States, and there is undisguised resentment in the poorer regions of the Russian Federation that they're expected to pay for the Kremlin's war, far more than Moscow or St. Petersburg. It's no coincidence that the Kremlin is having to devote increasing resources also to internal security measures aswell as Putin's invasion.

Russia not winning will inevitably require a comprehensive review of what the Russian Federation means and who wants to be part of it.
knownunknown wrote: Tue Feb 07, 2023 5:39 pm Anyone hinting at Ukraine winning (like most of western media) is either lying or delusional in my opinion. The winning conditions Zelensky has outlined are far removed from reality and will never be achieved.
They're the same conditions de Valera outlined for Ireland a little over a hundred years ago, and he didn't have the advantage of a general public absolutely determined to rid their country of a horde of brutal invaders. And at least Zelenskyy has set out reasonable terms for a cessation of hostilities; all we're getting from the Russian side is a stream of hate, spite and schoolyard bully's threats.
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Re: Anyone still glued to this?

#547

Post by KHD »

Hairy-Joe wrote: Tue Feb 07, 2023 4:27 pm Russia can't win. They won't be able to take the entire country. If they do hold onto a piece, there will be guerilla attacks for years. Economic sanctions will remain and the economy will suffer massively.

The Russian Oligarchy want to spend their millions in Paris, New York, Dubai, etc like they always have. They don't want to be stuck on visits to Sochi without their big cars, luxury shopping trips, etc. Any wealth they have in Russia could be impounded for "war efforts".

It could end up with Ukraine not winning either if Russia holds onto a piece of Ukraine.
Them three words you typed there- "Russia can't win" Going by the current state of Nato's weapons stocks and manpower the only logical conclusion to these three words is Nuclear conflict. While Nato countries combined air capabilities, as in numbers of aircraft, are superior to Russian army airpower, they will be flying into territory or launching stand off attacks against the most sophisticated air defense systems on the planet, so it will primarily be the land based high intensity industrial warfare that we are seeing in Ukraine. The American force in Europe currently and even if they increased this by a couple of hundred thousand more combat ready troops, which they dont have by the way, cannot sustain a long term war with Russia on European soil due to geography, even if they were to set up supply routes bringing in supplies the ships would be sunk as they crossed the Atlantic by Russian subs. It would be the same for the Russians if they fought the same type of war against the Americans from Mexico. They would not be able to sustain a war against America in their own back yard.

So the only option of defeating Russia on the European continent in my view would be nuclear war.

People will have to accept that Ukraine is going to loose territory in this, Crimea will never be relinquished as it is critical for Russia's Black Sea fleet. The Donbass will also be taken, the question is how far will Russia go in this and so far no one knows.

This will be a huge headache for Russia in the future, but the reality I see is that the longer this goes on, the more territory will be taken. Easy for European, US and Nato political leaders to cheer on Ukraine but again my point in all of this is that no matter how brave the Ukrainian people are in fighting this, no matter how motivated, when you come up against firepower and manpower, with the ability to sustain munition production on a massive scale as I see with the Russian army currently and the Western countries throwing together a hodge podge of systems that are not in the right quantities and that the Ukrainians will receive the minimal training on, they will not be able to overcome this and to me it is highly immoral to be putting Ukrainians in this position where they continue to die in huge numbers when western leaders themselves know damn well that the weaponry they are handing over will not change the outcome, nevermind the morality of the Russian decision to invade.

It's time this war is ended, but what western governments need to do, and really your talking about the United States here, is that talks be organised, without stupid preconditions like the Russians withdraw from Crimea, when they know full well they won't do.

But as I said, eventually this will be resolved via diplomatic means, but in the meantime, while the political sphere do fook all and go about this fantasy land they live in, when most of their militaries are now advising that Ukraine cannot win this, tens of thousands more Ukrainian and Russian troops will die and be maimed for life.
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Re: Anyone still glued to this?

#548

Post by isha »

CelticRambler wrote: Tue Feb 07, 2023 6:14 pm ..all we're getting from the Russian side is a stream of hate, spite and schoolyard bully's threats.

I can't enumerate them off hand but over the past year I have seen various reports of attempted negotiations including from Russia. I remember the pre war requests for NATO not to expand so close to Russia. (This would be similar to America not wanting a Russian presence in say Mexico.) Even a few days ago the former Israeli PM Naftali Benett (about whom I know zero) says he was involved in a peace negotiation with Ukraine and Russia which was scuppered by the US. So on the whole I don't believe this statement by you.
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Re: Anyone still glued to this?

#549

Post by CelticRambler »

Hairy-Joe wrote: Tue Feb 07, 2023 3:58 pm Also, given the massive amounts of equipment Ukraine captured after the fall of Kerson, I've not heard of it being used. I imagine it's waiting for the push.
One significant problem they have is that that old Soviet equipment uses old Soviet ammunition, and that's in very short supply - especially as they keep blowing up the stocks the Russians bring over the border. Ukraine has quite recently started making its own compatible shells so as to get as much use as possible out of these old units, but these things take time.

For those who might be interested, here's the link to the previously mentioned article about battlefield survival rates, Russia compared to Ukraine. [google translate, slightly buggy in the middle]
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Re: Anyone still glued to this?

#550

Post by KHD »

isha wrote: Tue Feb 07, 2023 6:25 pm I can't enumerate them off hand but over the past year I have seen various reports of attempted negotiations including from Russia. I remember the pre war requests for NATO not to expand so close to Russia. (This would be similar to America not wanting a Russian presence in say Mexico.) Even a few days ago the former Israeli PM Naftali Benett (about whom I know zero) says he was involved in a peace negotiation with Ukraine and Russia which was scuppered by the US. So on the whole I don't believe this statement by you.
The interview with the former Isreali PM is very interesting.
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