Anyone still glued to this?

[knownunknown]

God Rachel Maddow is a war mongering fecking c*nt

Remember when she was sued for defamation for saying that a news network was literally paid Russian propaganda? Her defence was that her words weren’t true.

”The statement could not reasonably be understood to imply an assertion of objective fact”

I think Jimmy Dore is really coming into his own as an opponent of this war.

[Jack The Stripper]

I’m sorry I didn’t open up a Tipperary gaa store, I’d have sold some amount of flags.

[Hairy-Joe]

From listening to the RTE news and from what's on BBC news, Bakhmut could be about to fall.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-64793923

I'm in two minds. First Russia has been pushing for 6 months to take this town so Ukraine did well to drain the Russians here. The second is that I don't want Russia to have any victory, pyrrhic or not.

Anyway, as the spring thaw has started, there won't be much movement of forces on the ground.

[knownunknown]

From listening to the RTE news and from what's on BBC news, Bakhmut could be about to fall.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-64793923

I'm in two minds. First Russia has been pushing for 6 months to take this town so Ukraine did well to drain the Russians here. The second is that I don't want Russia to have any victory, pyrrhic or not.

Anyway, as the spring thaw has started, there won't be much movement of forces on the ground.

Both sides think that they are on the side of the good and righteous which makes it an absolute bloodbath.

[Setanta]

From listening to the RTE news and from what's on BBC news, Bakhmut could be about to fall.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-64793923

I'm in two minds. First Russia has been pushing for 6 months to take this town so Ukraine did well to drain the Russians here. The second is that I don't want Russia to have any victory, pyrrhic or not.

Anyway, as the spring thaw has started, there won't be much movement of forces on the ground.

They lost territory north of it the weekend,and bombed a dam to stop movement

Some of videos from Wagner group,showing warehouses of coffins of fallen Ukrainians is horrible stuff...... zelensky and Putin are well matched now,scraficing thousands and thousands of their own over a strategic non-mark

American civil war and WW1 style trench warfare in Europe in 2023,did we ever think we'd live to see the day,these two are well matched militarily now,in a situation where neither can militarily be decisive,it's time for em to talk peace....china is only country activily seeking to find a diplomatic solution to this

[CelticRambler]

Some of videos from Wagner group,showing warehouses of coffins of fallen Ukrainians is horrible stuff......

Point of clarification: those videos show the coffins of Russians killed in the pursuit of Putin's dream of a new USSR. There are no equivalent videos of Ukrainians - only the ones showing them in hospitals being treated like normal human beings.

There is no now doubt that the Russians deaths are in the region of 10-to-1, and probably much worse. They have crap training, crappy weapons and crappier leadership, but no apparent desire to put the conflict on pause by getting the feck out of a country where they have no legitimate reason to be.

[Setanta]

Point of clarification: those videos show the coffins of Russians killed in the pursuit of Putin's dream of a new USSR.

There is no now doubt that the Russians deaths are in the region of 10-to-1, and probably much worse. They have crap training, crappy weapons and crappier leadership, but no apparent desire to put the conflict on pause by getting the feck out of a country where they have no legitimate reason to be.

They literally end in images of Wagner kitted out fellows nailing em closed,which if they are Ukrainians after dressing up as Wagner's.....leaves em in v.murky waters as regards war crimes,given Wagner aren't technically part of army?


I've no doubt their weapons and tactics are awlful (though one battalion mutined over proposed attacks on another town after an entire battalion lost on an diastorus valentine's assault)....but militarily the two of em have been at effective stalemate at bakhmut with months.....it's entirely realistic that this same scenario will play out in several towns,neither of two at present have a realistic path to victory....


Russia isn't realistically going to capture much territory without horrendous losses,ukraine has no clear path to victory as of now,and IMO needs to press china to make their peace proposals work.....which its politically difficult to do,as to outmanoeuvre USA and side with China,could see it's weapons dry up overnight and that would spell diaster

[knownunknown]

Point of clarification: those videos show the coffins of Russians killed in the pursuit of Putin's dream of a new USSR. There are no equivalent videos of Ukrainians - only the ones showing them in hospitals being treated like normal human beings.

There is no now doubt that the Russians deaths are in the region of 10-to-1, and probably much worse. They have crap training, crappy weapons and crappier leadership, but no apparent desire to put the conflict on pause by getting the feck out of a country where they have no legitimate reason to be.

• The Biden administration said over 100,000 had been killed or wounded on each side but was probably closer to 120,000.
• Ukrainian reporting is about 100,000 dead Russians vs 30,000 dead Ukrainians.
• Norways estimates are 180,000 Russian soldiers dead, with 100,000 Ukrainian soldiers dead along with 30,000 Ukrainian civilians dead.
• Russia outlet says about 10,000 russian soldiers dead

These most recent announcements came from November/December time.


Of course the New York Times where I got this information from begin their article with absurd figures but more importantly this line:

“ While the officials caution that casualties are notoriously difficult to estimate”

By most accounts we’ve already seen more death then how many Jewish Germans died during the holocaust.

Where do you get this 10-1 from?

[JayZeus]

Commentators are missing a key point here:

Ukraine will keep fighting no matter what.

They (the people, not their president alone) will not stop, even if they lose many multiples of what their actual losses are at this time.

They are right to do so. And they don’t care what you or I or anyone else has to say about it, as long as we give them the means to destroy Russians bearing arms against Ukranians on Ukranian soil.

I hope we give them everything they need, for as long as it takes.

To any Ukranian who may ever see this; Never give up. Never surrender your lands to the Russian invaders. Never forget that you are recognised all over the world as proud, brave and truly patriotic Ukranians. Our children and our childrens children will know of your wartime suffering, your immense sacrifice and ultimately your victory. It will not be easy and people will not always understand why you fight as you do, but time will prove to all that you fight a noble fight for the good of your fellow countrymen. When these are the truths, you can only be victorious.

[quodec]

Commentators are missing a key point here:

Ukraine will keep fighting no matter what.

They (the people, not their president alone) will not stop, even if they lose many multiples of what their actual losses are at this time.

They are right to do so. And they don’t care what you or I or anyone else has to say about it, as long as we give them the means to destroy Russians bearing arms against Ukranians on Ukranian soil.

I hope we give them everything they need, for as long as it takes.

To any Ukranian who may ever see this; Never give up. Never surrender your lands to the Russian invaders. Never forget that you are recognised all over the world as proud, brave and truly patriotic Ukranians. Our children and our childrens children will know of your wartime suffering, your immense sacrifice and ultimately your victory. It will not be easy and people will not always understand why you fight as you do, but time will prove to all that you fight a noble fight for the good of your fellow countrymen. When these are the truths, you can only be victorious.

This.

[knownunknown]

Donetsk declared itself independent long before this invasion(twice in fact) and Luhansk is 50% Russian with 85% of the population Russian speakers. Crimea is even more Russian then the two.

It’s more like Northern Ireland then the German invasion of France or something, maybe ireland should have fought to the last man against the UK and at least secured the morale victory.

[Del.Monte]

I like JayZeus' sentiments but they are a bit black and white - Russia bad, Ukraine good. There's more to this story, for instance why did Ukraine cancel the lease of the Sebastapol naval facility to the Russians?

After the dissolution of the Soviet Union, a 1997 treaty with Ukraine allowed Russia to keep its Black Sea Fleet pretty much intact (with 15,000 personnel currently stationed) and lease the base at Sevastopol (extended to expire in 2042): https://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/ ... -explainer

This 2010 article gives more background: https://www.diploweb.com/Russia-s-Black ... et-in.html

At the end of the day what's going on in Ukraine today is just part of the East/West power struggle that has being going for several centuries and which should have died a death at the end of the Cold War. As usual most people have moved far head of their politicians and are more concerned with their own lives, global warming etc. while those at the top of the pile who should know better are engaged in a willy waving contest of frightening proportions.

[CelticRambler]

They literally end in images of Wagner kitted out fellows nailing em closed,which if they are Ukrainians after dressing up as Wagner's.....

It's part of the internal struggle between Wagner and the Kremlin. The dead were Russians fighting for Wagner, now complaining that the Kremlin are freezing them out of the conflict. The message from Wagner was "these guys would still be alive if you'd given us the ammo we needed."

There are "Soviet mindset legacy issues" within Ukraine's military, but overall, they're getting progressively more coordinated and effective, thanks to ongoing training well behind the front lines (like in Germany and Britain); the situation within Russia is considerably more Soviet, with several factions positioning themselves for the after-war power struggle ... and some thinking they'd rather not wait till after.

ukraine has no clear path to victory as of now,and IMO needs to press china to make their peace proposals work.....

Why Ukraine? Why shouldn't it be Russia that gets the fúk out of Ukraine first, and then discusses the future? Especially as they've clearly demonstrated that all of their previously expressed "security concerns" were a load of BS.

Donetsk declared itself independent long before this invasion(twice in fact) and Luhansk is 50% Russian with 85% of the population Russian speakers. Crimea is even more Russian then the two.

85% of Ireland is English speaking, so by that logic the British would be entirely justified in re-occupying the whole of the island and enforcing an obligatory de-Irishisation of all aspects of our society, and relocating loyal English subjects to selected Irish counties to ensure a smooth transition to full Britishness.

D'you know, I seem to remember someone trying that at some stage. Must see if I can find out how it ended ...

[isha]

I think the first half of this clip in particular is correct. We don't know what we are doing. People who are fascinated by World War 2 and "battle-ography"* are analysing this situation from that point of view, but we don't live in that world anymore, the parameters are completely different, we are now comprehensively post neutron, post stockpiles of weapons that can eliminate the planet many times over. We are the big brained monkey who can irretrievably fck up an entire planet forever.



My sense is that people have lost the ability to truly know the weight of things. We are in an incredibly dangerous place and people are resorting to jingoism and sloganeering and, frankly, romanticism about war and heroes. We have never been closer on this planet to nuclear conflagration. We need to dial it all way way down. Instead, for reasons I cannot fathom, petrol is being poured all over this.

* I made up this word, but you know what it means.

[Setanta]

Commentators are missing a key point here:

Ukraine will keep fighting no matter what.

They (the people, not their president alone) will not stop, even if they lose many multiples of what their actual losses are at this time.

They are right to do so. And they don’t care what you or I or anyone else has to say about it, as long as we give them the means to destroy Russians bearing arms against Ukranians on Ukranian soil.

I hope we give them everything they need, for as long as it takes.

To any Ukranian who may ever see this; Never give up. Never surrender your lands to the Russian invaders. Never forget that you are recognised all over the world as proud, brave and truly patriotic Ukranians. Our children and our childrens children will know of your wartime suffering, your immense sacrifice and ultimately your victory. It will not be easy and people will not always understand why you fight as you do, but time will prove to all that you fight a noble fight for the good of your fellow countrymen. When these are the truths, you can only be victorious.

Noone is saying otherwise,just factually speaking this war is at effective military stalemate,with neither side making advances of any real significance in months

Easy enough to cheer Ukrainians into being slaughtered from a safe distance (or Russians depending on ones POV)....but there isn't a credible military solution for either side in the immediate future....china remains the only international power who is talking sense,and proposing some sort of a peace agreements at the minute (perhaps for their own selfish gain too)

[Setanta]

It's part of the internal struggle between Wagner and the Kremlin. The dead were Russians fighting for Wagner, now complaining that the Kremlin are freezing them out of the conflict. The message from Wagner was "these guys would still be alive if you'd given us the ammo we needed."

There are "Soviet mindset legacy issues" within Ukraine's military, but overall, they're getting progressively more coordinated and effective, thanks to ongoing training well behind the front lines (like in Germany and Britain); the situation within Russia is considerably more Soviet, with several factions positioning themselves for the after-war power struggle ... and some thinking they'd rather not wait till after.


Why Ukraine? Why shouldn't it be Russia that gets the fúk out of Ukraine first, and then discusses the future? Especially as they've clearly demonstrated that all of their previously expressed "security concerns" were a load of BS.


85% of Ireland is English speaking, so by that logic the British would be entirely justified in re-occupying the whole of the island and enforcing an obligatory de-Irishisation of all aspects of our society, and relocating loyal English subjects to selected Irish counties to ensure a smooth transition to full Britishness.

D'you know, I seem to remember someone trying that at some stage. Must see if I can find out how it ended ...

It should be Russia leave Ukraine first,but that is not presently compatible with reality.....there needs to be peace talks,alongside massive de-escalation and sooner the better...otherwise there will be dozens of bakhmuts and hundreds of thousands of lives needlessly lost on both sides

Military stalemate is recipe for bloodbaths....unless Ukraine can launch a massive counter offensive soon,they will spend entire summer on backfoot

[Hairy-Joe]

The trouble with peace talks is two fold.

Russia has zero word. There has been multiple treaties where Russia promised to recognize the territorial integrity of Ukraine and they have all been broken by Russia. So why should Ukraine have a peace deal with someone who won't uphold it?

If there's a peace deal where Russia keeps some of Ukraine, that means Russia has come out on top for it's territorial land grab. Also, given Russia's past history, what's to say in a few years (after building back up it's army), it won't come back for a second bite of the cake by trying to take more of Ukraine.

[kadman]

Noam Chomsky always worth watching

[Setanta]

Wagner group leader pleading for assistance to finish push into bakhmut...while implicating Moscow in any reversal of fortunes




Given the long known that Russia hasn't dug in defensively behind its front,could this war collaspe in a massive sea change??given the mutany after diaster at vuhledar (what went on there makes the assault on bakhmut look professional),could a massive air strike similar to Khasham in Syria cause the Russia spring offensive to collaspe into chaos

[Hairy-Joe]

I'm wondering if it's to get the excuses in early and to lay the ground for the "stabbed in the back" myth. Is the logic for the Wagner group to say in the future that they were never beaten, they lost because the Government didn't give them the support required?

[Setanta]

I'm wondering if it's to get the excuses in early and to lay the ground for the "stabbed in the back" myth. Is the logic for the Wagner group to say in the future that they were never beaten, they lost because the Government didn't give them the support required?

Wagner group were ordered out at one stage,but seem to have returned.....in theory,as a group of mercenaries not soldiers,they have little to no legal protection in Ukraine,and are in a no surrender position.....if anyone is likely to oust Putin it's their leader,(so it's a hard video to read as regards genuiness of it IMO)....though he has chosen to stay in the relative security of his own troops in Ukraine front line region,rather than return to Moscow....

Russian army looks to be fragmenting at edges,with videos freely available of mobilised units looking to join Wagner,or openly complaining of quality of weapons/likelihood of being thrown to slaughter.....it forever remains a black mark to me,that Europe didn't offer those who were conscripted some sort of refugee status for duration of the war

[Setanta]

A clearly defined war crime,disarming and killing surrendered troops



I've no doubt this is going on with both sides....and Ukraine owes nothing to Russian invaders,but calls to land Russia into Hague will see just as many for Ukraine,if they aren't careful






Though elsewhere,there's videos emerging of massive troop movements of Ukrainians in Donbas region.....but none seem to be headed to bakhmut despite the new bridges supposedly put in yesterday,Wagner troops claiming fighting upto 300 metres underground as they Strom the factory in bakhmut

[CelticRambler]

A clearly defined war crime,disarming and killing surrendered troops

Yeah. Except the video clearly shows that none of those who've surrendered are being shot. They're being disarmed and all of the shots shown in the video are going over their heads into the bushes beyond.

Ukraine has a vested interest in keeping alive as many POWs as possible. Unlike the Russians, they (seem to) care about recovering even their dead and trade live Russian POWs for killed Ukrainians.

[Setanta]

Yeah. Except the video clearly shows that none of those who've surrendered are being shot. They're being disarmed and all of the shots shown in the video are going over their heads into the bushes beyond.

Ukraine has a vested interest in keeping alive as many POWs as possible. Unlike the Russians, they (seem to) care about recovering even their dead and trade live Russian POWs for killed Ukrainians.

Those guys looked to have slumped down at end to me anyway

May see if there a longer form video of it

[CelticRambler]

Of course they did - the shots were going over their heads! They're shouted at just beforehand - I reckon it was the Ukrainians telling them to stay down and not move till their comrades opted for either surrender or death.