Property Market chat thread

[Guburnor]

Whether bullish or bearish, a thread for a wide ranging discussion of all things property market.

[schmittel]

I'd like to see this get busy, I am fairly active on boards property chat thread.

August is just around the corner, a critical month for the property market according to some!!

[nimrod86]

August is just around the corner, a critical month for the property market according to some!!

What makes August critical might I ask? Been enjoying the property forum a lot myself since buying my first house last year.

[schmittel]

What makes August critical might I ask? Been enjoying the property forum a lot myself since buying my first house last year.

There was a poster called PropQueries who was very active on the thread and for some time he had identified August as a critical turning point in the market.

Sadly he got banned a couple of months ago. Most people on the thread did not have much time for his comments. Personally i always found him worth listening to.

[nimrod86]

There was a poster called PropQueries who was very active on the thread and for some time he had identified August as a critical turning point in the market.

Interesting! I went sale agreed in July 2020, and moved in the end of October. I had friends looking to buy and others to rent, and the availability was very reduced from what it was during the summer when I was looking. Even now in the town I'm in, there's half the properties for sale, and none for rent (and this is the midlands, not Dublin where everyone wants to be!)

[schmittel]

Interesting! I went sale agreed in July 2020, and moved in the end of October. I had friends looking to buy and others to rent, and the availability was very reduced from what it was during the summer when I was looking. Even now in the town I'm in, there's half the properties for sale, and none for rent (and this is the midlands, not Dublin where everyone wants to be!)

Out of interest do you notice many vacant properties in your town?

[nimrod86]

Out of interest do you notice many vacant properties in your town?

Not really with houses, but on the main street of the village there would be a reasonable number of shop spaces to let.

[schmittel]

Decent opinion piece on housing into days Irish Times: Cliff Taylor: Has Government just got the jitters about its big housing plan?

His conclusion makes a point which is seemingly obvious but not often mentioned:

And the younger generation can legitimately ask whether those of us who own properties are happy to see prices fall to make them more affordable for them. Because, in the long term, if any housing plan is to work, homes will have to cost less.

Will we see a shift in government policy, away from measures such as shared equity which are inflationary, towards measures to actually reduce current property prices? It's sorely needed but not sure the older property owners, also a significant voting demographic, would be prepared to stomach it.

[dawg]

Decent opinion piece on housing into days Irish Times: Cliff Taylor: Has Government just got the jitters about its big housing plan?
His conclusion makes a point which is seemingly obvious but not often mentioned:

Will we see a shift in government policy, away from measures such as shared equity which are inflationary, towards measures to actually reduce current property prices? It's sorely needed but not sure the older property owners, also a significant voting demographic, would be prepared to stomach it.

Dawg doesnt follow property, but.......its not 'just' older property owners that would hurt. Any present owner would be hurt be they owner occupier or BTL landlord or REIT. In addition the whole house of cards that is domestic house building would have its foundations undermined.

Another thing : IIRC the development contributions payable on new builds were brought in after rates were abolished. Now that there is LPT ( surrogate rates ) I reckon there is a good case for development contributions to be abolished !

[Handlemaster]

Dawg doesnt follow property, but.......its not 'just' older property owners that would hurt. Any present owner would be hurt be they owner occupier or BTL landlord or REIT. In addition the whole house of cards that is domestic house building would have its foundations undermined.

Another thing : IIRC the development contributions payable on new builds were brought in after rates were abolished. Now that there is LPT ( surrogate rates ) I reckon there is a good case for development contributions to be abolished !

Its just more meddling in the property market nothing good will come from it.

[schmittel]

Expect to see turbo charged meddling when Housing for All is published. I wonder why it has been delayed.

[dawg]

Its just more meddling in the property market nothing good will come from it.

Has Kildare St meddling with the property market ever turned out well ?

[tinydancer]

Once the pandemic payment ends i expect many will have no job to go back to, straight onto the dole and they wont be able to pay mortgage , so i expect a glut of property to go on the market towards the end of the year, prices will drop.

[Handlemaster]

Once the pandemic payment ends i expect many will have no job to go back to, straight onto the dole and they wont be able to pay mortgage , so i expect a glut of property to go on the market towards the end of the year, prices will drop.

This situation has at least another year to run. The taps of public money been spent is not going to stop all of a sudden

[schmittel]

This situation has at least another year to run. The taps of public money been spent is not going to stop all of a sudden

I'd agree with that, but the interesting question concerns who, when and why is the tap going to stop?

Unlikely to be this government on current form, and equally unlikely to be the next. It will have to stop eventually so what will be the trigger? EU directives? Another visit from the IMF?

[46a]

Im hoping to buy before the year is out so a price crash would be most welcome, how likely do people think this could happen, 20% chance?

[scooby]

Im hoping to buy before the year is out so a price crash would be most welcome, how likely do people think this could happen, 20% chance?

1% chance maybe

We were in crisis before - they selling delays due to covid & extra savings have just compounded this.
It will be a long time before things start to cool down

[Handlemaster]

Im hoping to buy before the year is out so a price crash would be most welcome, how likely do people think this could happen, 20% chance?

as close to zero as you can get. This wont happen now for at least another 12 months the taps of goverment are open. Even if they were to stop it would take a while for the market to catch up and the new reality to set in.

[Memento Mori]

I have two conflicting arguments in my head regarding buying now:

Pro: It is looking very likely that there will be a period of sustained inflation. Having a low interest, fixed long-term (10 year plus) mortgage will be very financially benificial.

Anti: Property prices could go lower in the future.

I think 1 is more likely than 2, and if 2 happened perhaps it would be because of a wider crash which would impact on housing availability, and perhaps my ability to buy. So, I am planning to buy in the next 6 to 12 months.

[schmittel]

I have two conflicting arguments in my head regarding buying now:

Pro: It is looking very likely that there will be a period of sustained inflation. Having a low interest, fixed long-term (10 year plus) mortgage will be very financially benificial.

Anti: Property prices could go lower in the future.

I think 1 is more likely than 2, and if 2 happened perhaps it would be because of a wider crash which would impact on housing availability, and perhaps my ability to buy. So, I am planning to buy in the next 6 to 12 months.

I agree with you on inflation and fixing a rate might look very wise in 10 years time.

But if there is sustained inflation, interest rates will surely rise, and this will surely cause property prices to fall.

[Memento Mori]

I agree with you on inflation and fixing a rate might look very wise in 10 years time.

But if there is sustained inflation, interest rates will surely rise, and this will surely cause property prices to fall.

Not necessarily. I think it is likely that we will go through a period of what is called "financial repression" where interest rates are held below the rate of inflation. This will serve to "inflate away" the massive debts that countries have racked up. Not only this, I find it hard to believe that business and the economy could survive a large interest hike, given how much is reliant on these record low interest rates. So governments have a double incentive to leave interest rates below inflation.

[schmittel]

Not necessarily. I think it is likely that we will go through a period of what is called "financial repression" where interest rates are held below the rate of inflation. This will serve to "inflate away" the massive debts that countries have racked up. Not only this, I find it hard to believe that business and the economy could survive a large interest hike, given how much is reliant on these record low interest rates. So governments have a double incentive to leave interest rates below inflation.

I understand the logic behind that argument, but I don't think it will play out that way, because in Europe it's not the individual governments - the ECB will have to balance the conflicting interests of the different countries.

Sure it might be in Ireland's best interest to let inflation run hot and inflate away the debt, but Germany and the Netherlands might have very different views.

Either way fixing your interest rate is a good bet.

[Samson]

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/eco ... -1.4633888
More than 5,000 new dwelling completions recorded in Q2, CSO figures show
The boom is back!

[Memento Mori]

I understand the logic behind that argument, but I don't think it will play out that way, because in Europe it's not the individual governments - the ECB will have to balance the conflicting interests of the different countries.

Sure it might be in Ireland's best interest to let inflation run hot and inflate away the debt, but Germany and the Netherlands might have very different views.

Either way fixing your interest rate is a good bet.

EU will not want another debt crisis, inflating away the debt would suit them too. They have already refiddled how they define and view inflation (moving away from the very strict way it was defined - under German influence- previously. The big problem is that increasing interest rates would wreak havoc, so financial repression could be viewed as the lesser of two evils by those who would, normally, prefer higher interest rates.

Regarding fixed rates, its good to see some private operators offering it, until recently the state's rebuilding Ireland option was pretty much the only show in town.

[Love and theft]

In general I would think we are going to see alot more second hand property's enter the market toward the end of this year/early next year. Hopefully by March next year there will be more supply which will slow down the price increase on property

Obviously this is all based on covid being in the rear view mirror (as much as it can be) and no more future lockdowns...